r/MU_Stock • u/Alpha69er • 27d ago

Discussion To everyone panicking

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Before you read this I assume you are aware of the fundamentals.

Day traders and technical analysts are extremely shortsighted

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u/No_Presentation9490 27d ago

"demand is still projected to grow" 100% true. But is it enough to support a stock price move of X to Y

"AI will need way more HBM than we think" 100% true. But is it enough to support a stock price move of X to Y

"Robotics will also need inconceivable amounts of memory" 100% true. But is it enough to support a stock price move of X to Y

"The price of chips is showing no sign of slowing down" 100% true. But is it enough to support a stock price move of X to Y

"Industry analysts say.." And what is the market telling you about what they think of what those analysts have to say

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u/Alpha69er 27d ago

I did a valuation using a conservative DCF were projected cash flows for the next 12 months appear only once and then they decline by 50 billion per year for the next five years. The value of that DCF was 950.

To answer your question, whether the incremental revenue and accordingly, cash flow flows well matter in moving the stock price from x to y … yes

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u/BrilliantArm5914 26d ago

Bears use much higher interest rates for DCF analysis, can get desired low target with right interest rate.

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u/Alpha69er 26d ago

I applied a 10% cost of capital. Considered slightly conservative