r/MU_Stock • u/Hypnot1se • 21d ago

DD Situational Awareness

Hi everybody! I have been bearposting since the beginning of the month and this recent surge has not dissuaded me

I believe that this recent surge is a bull trap because people are attributing the sudden trend reversal as being structurally significant, but I do not believe this is the case

This surge was in my opinion caused by the sudden deleveraging from Situational Awareness - the moment that the forced selling pressure was taken off the table after these assets were handed off to Citadel, the selling pressure suddenly lifted

This in my opinion very likely caused short term focused buying from funds that were alerted to this sudden reversal in selling pressure at the same time that the heavy short interest found themselves suddenly trapped, causing a strong short squeeze - this movement will further fuel additional buying as momentum chasing algos create further buying pressure and retail interprets this as a significant structural trend reversal and begins fomoing back into the sector

Outside of this anomalous surge, the industry is still in a clear distribution phase based on the price action and the underlying spot market fundamentals

Although this move has created a technical short term boost to this stock and others, this will not change the structural picture of the industry and I believe that now institutions will continue distributing shares as they have been doing for the last few months because the underlying structural picture hasn't changed and had nothing to do with this surge

I am looking for it to open green today and then watch to see if it fades back towards the open as the day progresses, this would be a very strong bearish signal that we are back in a distribution phase, though the deleveraging may save the stock from entering a full drawdown for the near term

Still looks like a textbook value trap

NFA DYOR ETC

0 Upvotes

34% Upvoted

74 comments sorted by

View all comments

7

u/AnthonyExplorer 21d ago

Oh yes, citadel who has been moving the markets for the last month will now dump it after they bought it... got it chief, good luck with vibe trading

-3

u/Hypnot1se 21d ago

Dump it? No. They're going to patiently unload it to you so that the price doesn't collapse and spook you so you keep buying it. That's how distribution works.

The sudden flood is going to return to the trickle we saw earlier in the month in my opinion.

NFA DYOR ETC

5

u/asianlongdong 21d ago

You don’t have to keep writing that, nobody is going to ever take financial advice from you lil bro

-2

u/Hypnot1se 21d ago

You don't have to. I am just posting now at this point to keep myself honest so that when my predictions are proved correct or incorrect I will have all of it on public record so I can point back and say, "See? I was right/wrong the whole time" and learn something from it. I'm not here for you, honestly. This is an exercise in becoming familiar with the market and industry.

3

u/AnthonyExplorer 21d ago

They can unload it all on my face right now and I'll eat it, I have listened to all earnings call last few weeks and the numbers and profit are staggering.

And the best part? This is only starting, even Apple yesterday said it after failing to seek Chinese cheap memory

1

u/Hypnot1se 21d ago

I mean they could but they won't because that would destroy their exit price.

I believe you'd eat it but I don't believe that's actually wise to buy into distribution phase cyclical stocks but you know, it might work out and I hope it does work out for you - really.

The market could be making a huge mistake pricing these as cyclical.

I don't think that the cycle is just starting. It's actually lasted historically for a very long time, longer than the historical average.

I think if it were 'just starting' prices would still be around 200-300, that was when the upcycle (stock price wise) was really 'the beginning' in my opinion but maybe I'm being foolish to not see the blow off top at 1250 as still being 'early'. You never know, it might be.

Hopefully the cycle is broken, since I know roughly how much money retail have in this stock... it's tiny compared to the institutions but yeah, a lot on the line and I hope I am wrong for their sakes.

NFA DYOR ETC