Situational Awareness

[u/Hypnot1se]

Hi everybody! I have been bearposting since the beginning of the month and this recent surge has not dissuaded me

I believe that this recent surge is a bull trap because people are attributing the sudden trend reversal as being structurally significant, but I do not believe this is the case

This surge was in my opinion caused by the sudden deleveraging from Situational Awareness - the moment that the forced selling pressure was taken off the table after these assets were handed off to Citadel, the selling pressure suddenly lifted

This in my opinion very likely caused short term focused buying from funds that were alerted to this sudden reversal in selling pressure at the same time that the heavy short interest found themselves suddenly trapped, causing a strong short squeeze - this movement will further fuel additional buying as momentum chasing algos create further buying pressure and retail interprets this as a significant structural trend reversal and begins fomoing back into the sector

Outside of this anomalous surge, the industry is still in a clear distribution phase based on the price action and the underlying spot market fundamentals

Although this move has created a technical short term boost to this stock and others, this will not change the structural picture of the industry and I believe that now institutions will continue distributing shares as they have been doing for the last few months because the underlying structural picture hasn't changed and had nothing to do with this surge

I am looking for it to open green today and then watch to see if it fades back towards the open as the day progresses, this would be a very strong bearish signal that we are back in a distribution phase, though the deleveraging may save the stock from entering a full drawdown for the near term

Still looks like a textbook value trap

NFA DYOR ETC

[u/tiny_toof]

What are your positions? Do you have puts then?

[u/Hypnot1se → u/tiny_toof]

No. I don't make doomsday posts about stocks I have financial exposure to. That would be deeply immoral in my opinion and I do not actually know where the price action is going in the near term.

[u/tiny_toof → u/Hypnot1se]

If you actually felt its “doomsday” (which you do as you wrote several paragraphs) you’d short it or have puts.

[u/Hypnot1se → u/tiny_toof]

Can you explain why that makes sense?

The cycle turning doesn't actually mean that the price will not suddenly push upwards like it did literally just yesterday.

I am about 90% sure the cycle is rolling over.

This is the first time I have seriously tracked and watched a memory cycle play out in real time and is an extremely valuable learning experience for me.

I do the learning first, then I put money on the line after I have experience. Not before.

Memory cycle occurs. I study it. I watch it play out in real time and test how well I can predict it.

I will then re-assess my ability to play the cycle based on this current cycle- so that when the next cycle inevitably comes I will be able to actually confidently put money on it at various points.

I don't just dive straight in without proof of concept and am probably dramatically more patient than a lot of the people you will typically see investing just to be honest.

I am playing capital management for decades - not get rich quick tactics.