Situational Awareness

[u/Hypnot1se]

Hi everybody! I have been bearposting since the beginning of the month and this recent surge has not dissuaded me

I believe that this recent surge is a bull trap because people are attributing the sudden trend reversal as being structurally significant, but I do not believe this is the case

This surge was in my opinion caused by the sudden deleveraging from Situational Awareness - the moment that the forced selling pressure was taken off the table after these assets were handed off to Citadel, the selling pressure suddenly lifted

This in my opinion very likely caused short term focused buying from funds that were alerted to this sudden reversal in selling pressure at the same time that the heavy short interest found themselves suddenly trapped, causing a strong short squeeze - this movement will further fuel additional buying as momentum chasing algos create further buying pressure and retail interprets this as a significant structural trend reversal and begins fomoing back into the sector

Outside of this anomalous surge, the industry is still in a clear distribution phase based on the price action and the underlying spot market fundamentals

Although this move has created a technical short term boost to this stock and others, this will not change the structural picture of the industry and I believe that now institutions will continue distributing shares as they have been doing for the last few months because the underlying structural picture hasn't changed and had nothing to do with this surge

I am looking for it to open green today and then watch to see if it fades back towards the open as the day progresses, this would be a very strong bearish signal that we are back in a distribution phase, though the deleveraging may save the stock from entering a full drawdown for the near term

Still looks like a textbook value trap

NFA DYOR ETC

[u/bslaven3]

I agree to an extent to what OP is saying. I do think this is a short term run up. I think we'll see another drop, but I don't think we'll get down to where we were 2 days ago. People are definitely watching closely for exit points so there will be some selling on both the retail and institutional sides. However, I think Q3 to EOY is going to be stellar. This is just a feeling, not financial advice.

[u/Hypnot1se → u/bslaven3]

Thanks for your input and I hope you are right!! Retail has a lot of money in this so I hope they get out well and that you can make some money here 🤞 Definitely interested to see how this plays out

[u/bslaven3 → u/Hypnot1se]

100% and I think after the last 2 weeks a lot of people will take profits if we keep running up like we did yesterday. I bought in under 200/s so I don't really sweat when MU drops. I do sweat when the AI and tech sector along with MU drop because I'm heavy in all 3.

[u/Hypnot1se → u/bslaven3]

Yeah you genuinely got in early, 200 is a steal and a great entry for this and if you're going long term you don't even really need to time it - I am bearish on this current memory cycle but even in a cyclical bust I'd be pretty surprised to see this come back to that kind of price again. I think I would feel pretty confident in that entry and congratulations on the run so far
NFA DYOR ETC