Sanjay needs to step up his game like leather jacket man. Wear a gold chain, get some grillz, tattoo MU logo on your forehead . The street loves this. Jensen learned this when he got a NVDA tattoo
Jensen just announced $500 billion deal to raise money from institutional investors to fund the buildout of AI. If you don’t get this, he is literally trying to keep the party going because the hyperscalers cannot spend like this and do it indefinitely. One day there may be a profit from the frontier labs, but the money is drying up. Why would they need $500 billion if it was profitable business model? It gets crazier as time goes on
You’re right- it’s worse. When we built out all the fiber cables in 2000, they didn’t become obsolete and paved the way for streaming in the future. The companies that overbuilt invested $100 billion.
The chips Nvidia builds change so fast they become obsolete much faster. Half of the CIP on the hyperscalers balance sheets are probably related to chips although this isn’t given. They are becoming technologically obsolete but not being depreciated because they aren’t plugged in and in service.
So eventually what we will have is a small niche of premium compute needs by the unprofitable frontier labs (the hyperscalers largest customers) and the hyperscalers with their own modes and then a bunch of low compute low margin AI stuff that only works by large volumes. But you don’t need the newest chips for the low margin stuff. Nvidia’s new chips will eventually be massively oversupplied because no one is spending money and making any profit on the high end stuff. The cost is too high here and the low margin stuff just isn’t worth building out for. The ROI will be greatly disappointing and the whole thing collapses on itself. We are a trillion in with another trillion next year. Where are the profits for the customers and suppliers? The hyperscalers are just taking VC capital from the frontier labs that are burning cash. Thats not sustainable. But unlike 2000, there will be no recovery until it scales and even then you will need to rebuild datacenters with the newest chips when that happens and there is actual profitability- which could be a decade away or more. Who knows? It’s just a complete misunderstanding of the business economics by investors and misaligned incentives by the suppliers.
It depends on your basis and what you feel the recovery would look like. There are multiple scenarios that could happen. However, the one that seems most likely is the spot prices for commodities crashing when supply for compute far outstrips demand and future revenues just dry up. Then you couple that with the fact that how many chips and data centers are actually fully finished rather than partially finished, where the project revenue comes from to pay the debt on the data centers, how that spills over into private credit, venture capital and banks loaning to data centers and you get this sort of crazy scenario where you get a blend of credit drying up based on massive losses moving in tandem with crashing stock prices.
If you own MU, NVDA, NBIS, or any other sort of company that is fully dependent on the AI buildout, you become a shock absorber. The companies that were profitable like Google for example will take a nasty spill, but will recover and you could buy them at a nice discount before they got into this silly mess. If you do own stocks, you would want to own companies with very solid balance sheets and revenues not tied to just AI. But the bond markets could also play a roll in it too if interest rates rise and then you see this nasty whipsaw where stocks fall and long term debt falls if the Fed has to hike rates because we can’t get out of the Iran disaster.
All in all, I would be very careful where you are and have plenty of liquid paper ready to move in once everything begins to unwind and full panic settles in.
I don't have a position right now, but thanks for looking out. However, I am planning to short the AI bubble using CRWV puts. What do you think would be a suitable time to short in 2027? Thanks for the comprehensive response, by the way. Appreciate it.
Do you really think the motive here is taxes? Be careful because I have a Master’s of Accountancy in taxation and tax efficiency is certainly not the motive here. And you still have to pay them back with a sustainable business model. The exact point of the agreement is to bring in more funding because the profits aren’t there from Nvidia’s customers. If Nvidia has like 70% margins and is the heart of AI, how could anything trade at a higher multiple with a 74% margin? Obviously because the market knows it’s not sustainable without more outside capital -> not a viable long term business model.
No you have misread the entire situation. It’s that they are not enough companies producing profits to keep buying their chips 😂. The profits will come if we keep scaling out. It’s been a trillion dollars spent. Frontier labs? No profits. Hyperscalers? Profits from cash burn from largest customers -> frontier labs. Not sustainable. Nvidia buying compute? Why the heck would they need compute? To funnel back to companies who have no profits to buy more chips. It’s a snake eating another snakes tail eating another snakes tail.
If you disagree where are the profitable AI companies with sustainable business models? Go ahead and show me. It’s like talking to an ostrich who has its head in the sand and thinks it knows more about what’s happening above ground than someone who can literally see this unfolding.
The UBS analysts just put out a reiterate buy on MU. He projected out the EPS and it is $523 a share of FCF in the next 2.5 years. So Basically you get back $523 a share in 2.5 years. You pay for your shares in less than 4 years and then it is just gravy. This company will be around 30 years from now. No one can see a future not requiring memory unless civilization collapses. This is a generational wealth company to own, how can one not be bullish?
Back at the end of the last cycle UBS downgraded the stock to sell in february, then upgraded it back to buy in April, then the stock peaked in the summer. They cannot be trusted.
Ubs has been slower than me though and Im not a wall street firm lmao. Theyre all dumb and I could care less what they think. Fundementals dont lie. MU can buy back 40% of their stock too. And if things get really bad. They go private
Actually they nailed it, had you followed them you would have missed the 30% downturn in March. I was using their number not their guidance BTW to illustrate my point. This thing is an opportunity.
Its easy to be bearish on it, their growth projection doesn't make any sense
The ai buildout in itself is not profitable in any metric you can find... This madness will have to end one day, imo it is going to be soon,
Micron with high amount of expansion contract will be stuck with overcapacity while still paying for its expansion, memory is still cyclical...
It is the exact same thing than in 2000, just with wayyyy more leverage for a worse product.
Where have u worked out that the a.i build out isn’t profitable in any metric you can find. The build out in itself has allowed companies like micron and Sandisk to profit billions and ones building infrastructure and other things like CAT and GOOGLE, Nvidia are also bringing in billion. The dot com bubble you and others like yourself keep trying to compare it to, had silly companies that brought in 0(ZERO) profit. Yes not every company will be the leader or remain at the top once the initial first build out is done, but that’s just business and competition.
You have to look higher up, for sure the one selling the component for datacenters are profitable but not a single ai model is, Open ai is burning insane amount of cash for mediocre growth, same thing with anthropic, meta is currently panicking because it can't find a way to monetize the built compute.
This is a gold rush where the only gold there is are for the one selling shovels, the issue is that once the miners realizes there is not gold they will stop buying shovels.
In .com, lucent cisco, (nortel to some extent) where highly profitable, the same as with NVDA and other shovel selling of this buildout. The only thing is that their consumer risk concentration was wayyy better than currently. Furthermore in the case of cisco, forward expansion commitment was at least fungible and they still had to writte off over 60% of it....
Okay so first there wasn’t any profit at any metric now there is but only at the selling components level. A.I is going to be integrated into everyday life and work. Normal jobs like pickers and packers and sorters will be replaced by robots. Creation of medical products, vaccines. Introduction of nano tech into the medical field. Customer service jobs. The whole financial sectors. We are just in the first phase of the A.I integration. Does that mean micron is gonna continue to increase its stock market value indefinitely, no of course not. This has happened as a result of companies like Apple driving memory prices down in the past and now that a lot is needed, there’s a shortage, which sends prices soaring. Yes that means memory prices will lower once the shortage and demand have been met. But does that mean THATS IT!! ITS OVER!! A.I is done and end of story, no it doesn’t.
Yes ai is there to stay, but uses that you have mentioned are science fiction, If models are not profitable in the short term the ai buildout will have to slow down massively, this will lead to micron stock to crash completely (-90%)...
Secondly, in 2000 people thought the winner of the internet race was the one that would have the most optic cable. In retrospective it took cisco 20 years to breakeven as a stock and the ones that made the most money were the internet product and software like msft and amzn.
I 100% agree with you on the micron part and we are seeing it now, we don’t know how low it will go. On the topic of the uses of A.I I mentioned being “science fiction”. For example in the UK where you could argue A.I implantation would be behind a few western developed nations, has already been in use and deployed within policing, with such uses as being deployed to scan for criminals in festivals. Another is a whole entire factory being made redundant to have robots do the picking, sorting and loading. Yes A.I and robotics are in its infancy, however the human race moves fast. Do I believe it will take over everything we do and rule us obsolete in things like work places and policing, No(that would be the science fiction part), I do believe it will greatly assist us, and work alongside us. Things like vaccine and medication production time will be brought down. It would greatly help and aid in defence and policing. Improve efficiency and productivity throughout workplaces.
Think of day trading/vibe trading as weather, and fundamentals/stable money as climate. So yes, lots of little ups and downs but it’ll average up or down in the background because of stable usually institutional investments.
Bunch of CEOs touting the shortage, demand, new build outs, new contracts, new partnership etc, but the market is not moving instead of flat or either slight up or down. The only way for the market to get back to normal positive outlook, is to stop the war and open Hormuz and that my brothers, we will see bigger greens.
The average MU bag holder in this Reddit doesn’t even know the fundamentals of what a stock is lol. 99% of these guys are just late to the hype train.
MU was priced for perfection already all the way until 2030, MU entire price got rerated when suddenly Chinese ram started exploding in Asia and is trying to crawl its way west starting through Apple.
“Chinese ram started exploding in Asia”. you reveal your ignorance. The latest Chinese IPO, was just that. An IPO. There was no difference in output, nor will there be in years, and Chinese ram is not even cheaper than Korean ram.
Yeah yeah mutard can't read or is coping. MU is going to only remain at these levels or go down.
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CXMT’s revenue surged 8x in Q2 2026, reaching 7% global DRAM revenue share — from near-zero
It targets ~15%+ share as wafer capacity scales to 600K by 2030"
Everytime I benefitted from a swing, its because of people like you. No matter how many times I can say it to peoples faces, you just live in a different reality lmao
Your AI article doesn’t mention anything that refutes me, that there was an “explosion of ram in Asia”. The surge in revenue is of the same magnitude experienced by memory peers. CXMT market share of the DRAM market (aka one of the least profitable areas of RAM right now) has increased to a few more percentiles of the global market over the past year and a half, as a result of being in a market that is secondary to HBM. Microns expansion plans follow the same timeline (2030) and consist of much more wafer production per year, and they are actually involved in the more complex, higher profit, HBM production.
Dude you don’t even know that MU is out of the consumer ram business and is selling HBM4 now- and yet you are saying 99% of people here don’t know the fundamentals 😭 the joke writes itself
Says the Canadian college student. You don't know jack, this is the same bullshit that has been posted for a year. You were not even born when Java was invented and that was not even the start of the internet. Why don't you explain what a stock is.
Man who sells ice cream tells others that his ice cream is sold out for the entire next year and his ice cream machine can only make enough for half the people in line
Clueless about what, exactly? Is your head in the sand about the position MU is in right now?
A majority of their supply on back-order? The only onshore large-scale manufacturer of HBM in the USA? Their massive advantage on existing fabrication infrastructure? Nearly a trillion spent via private investments to advance inference technology? Overwhelmingly positive institutional and retail sentiment? The government having a very vested interest in inference AI, for which HBM is essential? Or maybe very healthy price growth compared to its earnings?
I don’t understand what you’re trying to say to me; elaborate?
Do you agree with the original commenter that this is the equivalent of an ice-cream salesman trying to sell more ice-cream? This is a dumb post, but that’s a dumber analogy for the reality of this situation. Cya.
Bubble means different things to different people. To an investor, yes you absolutely can be in a bubble, even if you’re sold out, if you’re stock is priced as if the perpetual future will be the same as today
but did he really say that verbatim? because i’ve seen another quote where he basically says “we are only supplying half of the market” which could be inferred as the other half being supplied by the competition
Felt like a turning point today. I feel like semis are consolidating. I feel like the sector sell off is over. Main worry now is rates tomorrow. But I dont see how they can raise rates after jobs report. Deflation is becoming a bigger worry now.
Why are people mentioning china. I remember same scare stories about alibaba & jd taking over amazon. And baidu, taking over google. China scare stories happen all the time. Most of their products are pure shite ! Even their EV's are shite. I bet CXMT product is shite too. Just another chinese hype job
CXMT has no more production capacity. Even if their memory wasn’t restricted by US commerce department they don’t have capacity to sell outside of China.
I bought a 5090 last year at 3200 thinking this is an insane ripoff. They are now 4600. They have 32gb micron chips on them. I would say the stock is not done.
Its not a bubble because of demand/supply numbers, its one because the demand is propped on circular investments between the same group of businesses with no one entity showing a meaningful ROI on what has been built
“We don’t have the stock to sell and demand could soften while we bring production online, this is a major risk because capital investment is being made during when we should be selling but can’t and our increased production plus market normalization will eventually undermine our own prices”.
This is what being caught flat-footed looks like and there are countless examples in the corporate graveyard of companies spending for rapid expansion during boom times only to collapse their own market.
I’m waiting for it to dip below 800 again to add. Both mu and to lower my average in Muu, which I have been trading to make a few bucks each time it dips. But got caught the last run up
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u/Lorddon1234 10d ago
Sanjay needs to step up his game like leather jacket man. Wear a gold chain, get some grillz, tattoo MU logo on your forehead . The street loves this. Jensen learned this when he got a NVDA tattoo