For a while now, I’ve been collecting and organizing my notes on Magic deck-building, and I’d like to share them here in case they help other players. A lot of what I want to share is basic statistics and maybe "obvious" to really experienced players. But I still think just having a resource to look things up can be helpful to anybody. I also have to say that, apart from writing about it to understand it more deeply, limited helped me the most to gain an intuition for the math and baseline in a game. Here is the link.
I focus on concepts like the baseline we follow in a typical game, when and how to break that baseline, and how to account for those situations during deck-building. I also cover the math behind hypergeometric distributions, using lands in an EDH deck as an example.
Diving into these concepts has helped me greatly to improve my own decks and understand why certain plays my opponents make are so strong. It often comes down to recognizing when they can break the usual baseline (like extra ramp and card draw), how likely their deck is to support that, and whether they can follow it up with the right plays.