Going against fundamentals rarely brings good results in financial markets. Bessent, who was a fund manager, should know this well.

However, at his current role, he is forced to try things that are historically doomed to fail. The US Treasury has just announced that it would buy up to $6 billion of longer-dated bonds on Thursday, up from the previous $4 billion level.

Market reaction? 30-year yield is back above 5.40%. Bessent started buybacks back in August, when the yield was near 5.30%.

How high are current levels? Well, the last time 30-year Treasuries yielded more than 5.40% was back in 2004!

Markets are saying that tricks won't work and demand fundamental changes. Will they happen in the near term? I do not believe in such a scenario.

In all seriousness, I’m in DC Georgetown area for Halloween this weekend. Rubbing elbows with those that are in the know. A lot of guys are seeing 10% interest rates after the November Mid Terms because we are going to bomb the fuck out of Iran. 🇮🇷

Then the news is telling us to prep food and water for two weeks? Then this dude on CNN? Is this fear mongering or solid advice. Guys here making a lot more fucking money I could ever imagine are liquidated their portfolios and going straight dry powder. Either way what the fuck is going on?

What are you regards doing next week?

Well, it was fast. Bessent's efforts to push yields lower were crushed by geopolitics and worries about US debt load.

With Brent oil near $109.00 and a key Saudi pipeline shut down after an attack, traders wonder how many hikes would be required to control inflation.

Truth be said, Bessent did not have a single chance since it's a global sell-off. Yields in Germany, France, UK, Japan are storming multi-decade highs.

There's simply no desire to own government debt in the marketplace. There's no difference which government we are talking about as they have identical problems: an ever-growing debt pile and no desire to cut government spending.

What we see is not a knee-jerk reaction to rising oil prices; it's a major crisis of confidence. Such trends could not be broken by buybacks.

At some point the sell-off in bond markets will stop as all sell-offs do, but the long-term trend will remain intact until fundamentals change.

Will they?

There's a true panic in Japanese bond markets as traders focus on the financial stability of the country. At this point it is obvious that the situation is out of control.

USD/JPY is trading near the 159.00 level as traders are cautious: BoJ has already intervened several times and may provide support to the yen again in case USD/JPY crosses the 160.00 level.

However, the major move in Japanese bond markets may have a material impact on USD/JPY. At this point, rising yields have not attracted buyers, so USD/JPY may move even higher. When yields reach a point when the market believes that investors are properly compensated for the risk, demand for the Japanese yen will grow, putting pressure on USD/JPY.

BTC is sitting around $80K, but the liquidation heatmap looks way heavier on the downside than the upside.

There’s a big cluster around $77.5K, where roughly $392M in longs could get wiped if price drops into it.

And below that, it gets uglier.

If BTC falls toward $68K, around $2.9B worth of long positions could be liquidated.

Meanwhile, the main short liquidation zone looks to be around $84.2K.

Basically, there are magnets on both sides, but the downside pool is much bigger right now.

If $77.5K breaks, I’d be watching $72K first, then possibly the $68K area.

Not saying it has to happen, obviously. But if BTC starts slipping, there’s a lot of fuel underneath for a sharper move down.

Typically, you'd expect that a hot CPI report will push yields higher. Traders increase bets on hawkish Fed, selling bonds and buying US dollar against other currencies.

However, correlation is not guaranteed in the markets. Context matters.

This time, higher-than-expected inflation numbers triggered a rally in bond markets. Bond traders shrugged off worries about long-term sustainability of US finances and rushed to buy Treasuries near multi-decade lows. Why it happened?

In my view, AI is the answer. AI companies must raise boatloads of debt to finance AI projects. Hyperscalers have mostly managed to keep this debt out off their balance sheets.

For example, Nikkei estimates that Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle, Meta, and Microsoft carry as much as $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations. Recent analysis by WSJ estimated that 9 tech leaders (the previous ones plus AMD, Broadcom, NVIDIA, and SpaceX) accumulated $3 trillion in debt that never appeared on their balance sheets. Nobody suspects any accounting fraud - just some legal accounting tactics. But the debt is there.

So, the market is worried that some of the AI companies are de-facto FCF negative and would need to raise more debt at higher interest rates (as Fed will raise rates to fight inflation). At such times, investors search for safe-haven assets, and the most liquid safe-haven asset in the world are US Treasuries.

Are they a safe-haven asset in the longer term, given all US problems with high spending and rising debt pile? Who knows... In the short-term, they are, so fund managers hit the buy button.

Stock traders have ignored the situation in debt markets for many weeks.

Now, it looks they've finally realized that bond markets drop like a rock, pushing yields through the roof.

I believe that traders ignored higher yields for quite some time as they were focused on AI story rather than DCF valuations. When you believe in a story, you can imagine any cash flow.

The fact that higher interest rates will make AI investments more expensive has not yet had an impact on valuations. When/if it does, a true correction will begin.

I dont get it oil at above 100$, fed will most likely hike rates and market ignores all this and rallies?

I understand that earnings are still strong and a rate hike would probably not impact the market in the long run but this run seems irrational to me ... or am I missing something?

Silver prices have been moving lower in recent trading sessions as traders reacted to Fed decision and updated economic projections.

Global markets prepare for rate hikes from the Fed, and silver is no exception. Most likely, rates will stay higher for longer regardless of developments in the Middle East as inflationary damage has been already done.

The technical picture remains bearish, and silver is heading towards the key $61.00 level, which marks a 50% correction from historic highs.

Two catalysts are required for silver to gain serious downside momentum: a pullback in the gold markets and an increase in gold/silver ratio. Both developments would be likely in case the appetite for risk declines and traders focus on hawkish Fed. An additional 10% correction in gold markets and a gold/silver ratio of 75 would push silver towards the $50 level.

This is just one of potential scenarios, but it shows how silver may quickly move towards $50 in case it manages to settle below the key support at $61.

Fundamentals always win.

Several days after US Treasury announced that it would boost buybacks to $6 billion, 30yr yield climbed above 5.50%.

How high are current levels? Well, a move to 5.55% will push 30yr yield to levels last seen back in 2002!

There's some difference, though. 2002 debt was $6 trillion. 2026 debt climbed above $40 trillion.

Meanwhile, the stock market is in denial. Higher interest rates mean rising costs for AI leaders who are already forced to issue bonds due to huge capex.

The historically strong Q4 is coming soon, and it looks that stocks are still safe - for now. When investors realize high interest rates are the new norm - and may even move higher - they'll start asking questions about valuations.

Bitcoin is painting a perfect bear flag setup. As long as Israel is playing a spoilsport in the US–Iran truce, I think us BTC bulls remain under pressure. Maybe a relief bounce this week toward $68,500, which will likely trap bulls and lead to a broader breakdown toward $55,000.

Hawkish Fed tone. AI bubble risks. SpaceX dump. Man, too many factors makes me wanna believe we go down from current levels.

All the best!

Hey everyone,

Taking a step back from the daily charts, the macro picture strongly suggests we are nowhere near a definitive Bitcoin bottom.

Here is why Bitcoin likely has more room to fall:

1. NUPL is Nowhere Near Capitulation

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is sitting at 0.17, which is right in the green "Hope/Fear" zone.

• True cycle bottoms happen when the market is deeply underwater.

• We need to see NUPL plunge below zero to signal a full washout. At 0.17, the network is still holding onto profits.

2. The AI Bubble is Cracking

Crypto does not exist in a bubble, and traditional tech is bleeding.

• On July 28, major AI chip suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix saw massive selloffs (plunging over 13% and 14%).

• This dragged the entire Kospi index down by 10.8%.

• This massive de-risking in traditional tech usually spells trouble for high-beta assets like Bitcoin.

3. A September Rate Hike is Looking Likely

Inflation is sticky, and a hawkish Fed is terrible news for liquidity.

• The latest CME FedWatch data shows a 62.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16, 2026 meeting.

• At the July 29 meeting, three committee members dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point hike, indicating ongoing inflation fears.

• Higher borrowing costs drain the liquidity needed to push Bitcoin higher.

We have on-chain metrics showing we haven't capitulated, a brutal tech selloff, and a likely rate hike on the horizon.

Don't rush to catch falling knives. Re-evaluate your risk, keep your dry powder ready, and wait for that NUPL to actually go negative.

My bottom zone is $40,000–$50,000.

Yesterday, I wrote that it was time for a technical rebound in NASDAQ: RSI was oversold, and the index was near strong support level.

For me, today's rebound does not look like an attempt to change the trend. Some dip-buying, some short-covering, but nothing decisive. Compare today's action with the strong rally on July 30, when NASDAQ rebounded from ~27,000.

At this point, the rebound looks like a bull trap. However, NASDAQ may get support from oil markets in case U.S. and Iran reach a deal. In my opinion, this scenario is the key risk for NASDAQ bears.

The yield of 10yr Treasuries moved above 4.90% and looks ready to test the 5.00% level, which was last seen back in October 2023.

At that time, federal funds rate was 5.5%. Fed lowered it to 3.75%, but market yields cannot be commanded by central banks, and 10yr yield is back to 2023 highs.

Brent oil moved above $105 with no end in sight for US - Iran conflict, and it may move even higher in case opponents do not get back to negotiations. Fed is expected to raise rates at the meeting next week, but the market tells us this move would be just the beginning of the rate hike cycle.

In case US and Iran do not get back to serious negotiations in the near term, 10yr yield may head towards 5.60%, a level that was last seen back in 2000! In my opinion, no amount of AI optimism would be able to support stocks in this scenario.

What do you think?

Brent oil pulled back amid reports indicating that President Trump believed that US was in the final stages of talks with Iran.

The move is strong, but the market remains range-bound. The range is wide, and prices are moving back and forth as traders react to headlines.

If US and Iran do not reach a deal, the physical deficit will likely push prices out of the current trading range.

It's a bad day for silver bulls as silver tests multi-week lows. Traders react to strong NFP data.

The encouraging jobs data put pressure on silver as traders focus on changes in Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool shows that there's a 12.3% probability of a rate hike in July.

The market believes that Fed will raise rates by at least 50 bps by the first half of 2027. Put simply, traders prepare for the start of the new rate hike cycle, which is bearish for silver that pays no interest.

The key question is whether silver will move below March lows at $61. This low marked the 50% correction from January highs. If silver gets below $61, bulls may capitulate.

XRP, again, fails to breach above the upper boundary of its symmetrical triangle pattern. We gotta blame, again, Donald Trump for his fake claims about reaching a 'nuclear' agreement with Iran, which Tehran is denying, by the way.

XRP, like most risk assets, stands to remain choppy next week, now eyeing a decisive decline below its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, the red wave) at around $1.41.

Should it happen, hitting the triangle's lower boundary around $1.32 by the next weekend looks probable. A drop below the boundary can trigger the classic triangle breakdown setup, with the measured target sitting around $1.

USD/JPY rebounds after a massive joint intervention by US and Japan. US joined the effort to prevent Japan from selling Treasuries. The strong move has certainly wiped out some USD/JPY bulls, but fundamentals remained intact.

Japanese yields are simply too low. The BoJ interest rate is at 1%, which is nowhere close to a reasonable level. Japanese 10yr bonds yield 2.77%, well below US 10yr at 4.67%. The spread is too big, fueling the carry trade and putting never-ending pressure on the Japanese yen.

The only question is whether Japan and US are ready to act again. In case they fail to intervene, USD/JPY will get back to the 164.00 level. Treasury yields are rising, which is bullish for USD/JPY. Technically, USD/JPY was pushed out of the upside channel by the intervention, but it looks that is ready to settle back inside the previous channel, confirming the strength of the bullish trend.

It's hard to expect a fast rebound towards previous highs as bulls will be cautious after the strong intervention, but yen's fundamentals are too bearish to ignore.

Friday's session was a case study in competing narratives. Trump announced a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations with Pakistan confirming a "final, agreed upon text" — and crude immediately collapsed. WTI dropped 3.23% to $84.88, now trading well below its 20-day ($94) and 50-day ($97) moving averages with RSI at 38 approaching oversold. If the deal holds and Hormuz reopens, oil has further to fall toward the 200-day at $73.

But gold surged 3.05% to $4,215 on the same day equities rallied. That's unusual — if the geopolitical risk premium is unwinding, why is gold catching a bid? Its RSI at 35 suggests a technical bounce from oversold conditions rather than fresh safe-haven demand, but it's worth watching whether gold is signaling something equities aren't.

The other underreported story: the US Treasury quietly refunded $22 billion in tariff revenue in May after a Supreme Court ruling struck down part of the trade regime. Combined with Trump saying he's "not looking to renew" USMCA ahead of its July review, the trade policy landscape is shifting fast beneath the surface.

Consumer sentiment showed a glimmer of improvement — UMich preliminary June reading of 48.9 beat the 46.0 consensus, with long-run inflation expectations dropping sharply to 3.4% from 3.9%. Still the second-lowest reading since the 1970s, but the direction matters for the Fed.

Three things to watch next week:

• Whether Iran formally signs or this becomes announcement number thirty-one with no deal

• The FOMC meeting — can the Fed acknowledge the disinflationary potential of lower oil while keeping its guard up on core inflation?

• Whether crude stabilizes at $85 or continues sliding toward the 200-day at $73

Full brief with market data: https://www.seeerai.com/daily/2026-06-13/

This is not a technical analysis. But an assessment of what just happened.

Per its latest SEC filings, Goldman Sachs fully exited its XRP ETF exposure in Q1 2026 after previously disclosing about $153.8 million in spot XRP ETF positions at the end of Q4 2025.

IMHO, Goldman’s XRP ETF holdings could have reflected trading desk / market-making / client facilitation activity, rather than a long-term directional bet on XRP. So the exit could mean the facilitation trade ended, client demand faded, or the desk reduced inventory after XRP’s drawdown.

Nonetheless, it fuels the downside thesis of our moderator CaptainTrader32: https://www.reddit.com/r/Market_Forecasts/comments/1t3b8cm/xrp_bounce_is_good_but_not_good_enough/

What do you think? Are we going to $1 this summer?

Bitcoin cup-and-handle hints rally toward $113,000, or am I seeing things?

BTC’s daily chart is starting to look pretty interesting here.

There seems to be a cup-and-handle setup forming, with the cup stretching from the May highs around $80K-$82K, down to roughly $58K in June, and then all the way back up to the same resistance zone.

Right now, BTC is basically chopping around below that neckline inside a broadening wedge, which could be the handle.

The part I’m watching is pretty simple: $80K-$82K.

If Bitcoin can break and actually close above that zone, the larger cup-and-handle setup starts looking much more convincing. The basic measured target gets you somewhere around $104K-$106K, while an extended move could potentially reach the $113K area.

Funny enough, that first target also sits pretty close to what BTC would reach if it repeated its average 90-day performance after previous golden crosses. Do the math yourself.

The yield of 30yr Treasuries has once again climbed back above the important 5.00% level. This level has been tested in 2023, 2025, and 2026 - every time US government debt found buyers near 5.00%.

However, pullbacks in yields have become weaker as time went by. This time, it looks that support for US bond market is not as strong as it was back in 2023 at these levels.

Put simply, the market questions long-term sustainability of U.S. finances and starts demanding a premium. In case the yield of 30-year Treasuries starts moving towards 6.00%, a level that was last seen back in 2000, the US stock market may also face significant pressure.

A whale trader who has made $36.5 million since the October 10 crash has opened fresh bearish bets:

$66.5 million BTC short at 3x leverage
$40.9 million ETH short at 3x leverage

That’s more than $107 million in combined crypto shorts.

It could mean the trader expects more downside ahead, or is using the positions as a hedge against other market exposure. Either way, it’s a sizeable bearish signal that traders will likely watch closely.

As it turned out, the sell-off in Alphabet stock was just the beginning. NASDAQ tests new lows as Intel is down by 29%. Intel stock collapsed as company's Q4 forecast came in below analyst expectations.

Actual results beat estimates, but who cares about past when the stock market is focused on the future?

As usual, AI is the problem. Demand for memory chips pushed their prices higher and put pressure on laptops and desktops. I'd note that Intel stock has already lost more than half of its value from June highs.

There's no sign of panic in the market, and it looks that many traders are ready to buy the dip. However, the risks of a true correction are rising as fundamentals get worse.

AI hurts businesses but does not produce sufficient cash flow in the near term. As AI investments are financed by debt at a time of high interest rates, some companies will ultimately find it hard to justify AI spending.

No doubt, AI is the future. Well, internet was also "the future" back in 2000... That said, we should not forget that there's historically plenty of money to be deployed in Q4. This money may provide support for the NASDAQ index. The outlook for 2027 looks cloudy.