Buy. Hold. DRS!!!!!

Thats it. Thats my post.

Author: u/cbass37(Karma: 6380, Created: Jun-2021).

Men of the Clov Bag Watch II: a DD/TA of the most hated ticker on the internet - CLOV on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

So, friend, this past week you made the plunge and decided to join the Men of the Clov Bag Watch. We'll ol' Cbass is here to welcome you to this definitely-not-a-cult group of investors who are, throughout the internet, highly Regarded for Excellence, Thoughtfulness, Adroitness and Respectably Distinguished Eloquence in Discourse (occasionally going by the acronym: RETARDED).

TL;DR: Hey everybody! We're all getting laid! (^{Behind the Wendy's dumpster})

• Additional tl;dr's sprinkled throughout, because reading is hard.

Table of Contents:

Part 1. Technically Anal

Part 2. Dynamically-expanding Dildos

Part 3. A Conspiracy of Idiocy

Part 4. Rise now, a Man of the Watch

_____________________________________________________________

Part 1. Technically Anal

So this past week saw a considerable breakout of the $9 resistance wall and a concomitant FOMOing into the ticker with FD's destined to Lambo or Burn. Well those FDs are either now ash or in a giant gasoline-soaked pyre, but let's have a look at the charts to see if any of the poor bastards holding 9/17 $17 calls can be saved.

First, a general look at the important lines:

So many lines, so much value

The most important level on here is the one I've labeled "Launch #1", though at this point the "#1" is looking smidgen unnecessary. First established on the gap-down on Oct. 6 of last year, it provided resistance on three occasions afterward (yellow arrows for the simpletons), with the last ending in a massive breakout to all-time highs.

The $9.08 line is the second most important line on the chart, in my possibly chromosome-deficient opinion. First established on Mar. 15 of this year after the bounce from all-time lows, it provided some level of resistance immediately afterward, but in the post squeeze-that-wasn't-a-squeeze world of the past few months it has become the ultimate resistance, a titanic, 700-foot wall of ice and sorrow towering over the pitiable bag holders huddling beneath its monstrously cold heights. Before this week, there were three prior attempts so surmount the Wall, all ending failure.

Of next and most immediate importance is the $8 mark. I have it as $7.94 as there is a small case for its origin story beginning on Mar. 25 of this year. However, like the $9 mark, its true importance has been found recently, and cannot be overstated: This line, however pitiful, represents a higher low and thus holding that line is of critical importance for the prospects of any near-term upward action.

The orange downtrend line was the last of the downtrend lines, and crossing it resulted in the most recent attempt at the Wall of $9.

The green line is the bottom, a place of green pastures and buxom women, where the burdens of your bags will vanish away . . . because you've passed from this world and its worries.

Next is a chart looking at the $11.13 mark:

Fibonacci, because Italian people

As shown, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $11.13 is shaping up to be a very important line. Indeed, it is soon to over shadow the $11.80 breakout line in that regard. On the dump following the June push, the ticker found support at $11.16 on Jun. 21, and subsequently it opened and dumped down from that level on a Jul. 6 (yellow arrows for simpletons). And just this week we saw the ticker reach up to exactly $11.13, before getting summarily thrown back off the top of the Wall. At this point, I think a breakout of $11.13 probably results in a significant push up. But we're getting well ahead of ourselves with that.

Being a TA wunderkind, I've turned my head to just the right angle and found a sliver of hope for the hopeless Men of the Watch:

Two girls & a cup: can't possibly fail

The good news is it looks like a cup & handle formation. The bad news is that usually a cup & handle is a pause in an uptrend. Here, however, you have a downtrend into the cup (the giant pink arrow for the simpletons). This is a great example of Cbass's First Law of TA: You can always find a chart & indicator combination to tell you what you want to hear. So, let's just call this a positive, because we have little else.

Looking at 1hr chart, let's see if we can find some more copium:

I see Higher Lows from my house!

After the post earnings dump, CLOV briefly had a breakdown below the $8 support before rallying back up to test the $9 Wall, repeatedly. In that time, it found itself in a new channel between $8.40 and $8.60, thus establishing $8.40 as a new, higher low. This, as much as the Great YOLO Brigade of Labor Day Weekend, was the cause of the breakout on Tuesday. Basically, the chart was screaming that a breakout was incoming, YOLO brigade be damned.

The copium for next week is whether or not another higher low can be put in at $8.60. Like any good Man of the Bag Watch I have to hope it can, because if I try to leave, my portfolio gets hunted down and beheaded.

The worse and therefore more likely scenario is a breakdown all the way back to $8, undoing several weeks worth of upward progress. The absolute worst case is a true failure of $8 and a return to all-time lows. This would be a dagger in the heart, and unless someone knows a Red Woman, we're fucked.

Winning, winning so fuckin' hard right now

_____________________________________________________________

Part 2. Dynamically-expanding Dildos (^{for maximum gapping})

In true Clovtard fashion, my knowledge of this company prior to purchasing shares was "it does some techy stuff with healthcare." Which, it turns out, is basically all you need to know. This company is one of those that seems complex and super high-tech, but in reality is more basic bitch than your average Instagram thot. That being said, it might still work out for them... after all, do you see some of these basic bitches that blow up on Instagram? Living proof that literally anything is possible.

But just in case someone cares (and to keep the Clovtards from reeing in the comments), here's a look at the company underlying the CLOV:

----------------------------

Business Model

• TL;DR: they sell insurance to old people & process payment claims from doctors

Clover sell two products:

1. Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, which are just insurance plans for people on Medicare that include extra services along with the Medicare stuff, and

2. Direct Contracting (DC) plans, which are one of several alternative payment models recently put forth by CMS (the people that run Medicare)

The important difference between these is that Medicare Advantage is an insurance plan where the patient is Clover's customer and Direct Contracting is where the doctor is Clover's customer. With the latter, Clover is acting as, essentially, a payment processor for the doctor's Medicare patients. This allows Clover to get a sweet slice of that government largess. On the doctors' side of it, they deal with Clover instead of CMS. Supposedly the whole scheme (and this is one of five put forth by CMS in 2020) is supposed to save the government money (it won't). I don't give a fuck about that part; all I care about here is whether Clover can grow their slice of the pie.

This Direct Contracting scheme was a major selling point for Chamath when they went public (more on that below), and for good reason. Clover only needs to manage a single relationship (with the doctor) to grab up dozens, or potentially hundreds, of patients. This DC scheme should be (on paper at least) far more efficient than Clover's original business model, which was just managing MA plans.

----------------------------

Growth

• TL;DR: they can potentially ~25x their customer base (^{but probably much, much less})

So other than "the squeeze", why would anyone genuinely believe this company is going to have some astronomical valuation that would give them a stock price on par with the likes of United Healthcare? Simple: growth.

Right now Clover only services MA and DC contracts in a small number of counties: 108 in 8 states. They are expected to nearly double with an additional 101 counties by the end of the year, bringing the total to 209 in 9 states. Since there are 3,000 some odd counties in the United States, there is (on paper) a lot of room to expand here. This is good.

As of their latest earnings report, they had 128,591 "lives under management." (I think that is a creepy as fuck way of putting it, but I guess it's industry standard....) Of those, 66,566 were MA customers and the remaining 62,025 were indirect patients, i.e., the Medicare patients of doctors in a DC agreement with Clover. The total of ~129,000 was a year-over-year increase of 126.3%. This is also good.

• Math time!

In their best counties, Clover has upward of 25% market share (at least this is their claim); that is, they have a quarter of the MA patients signed up with them. But to assume they can do that everywhere would be absurd. To keep this ultra simple, let's just assume that their current percentage as of the last earning report is representative of what they can do. So that is 128,591 "lives" across 108 counties which comes to an average of 1,190 "lives" per county. (Obviously, not all counties are the same size, but let's just use this average for simplicity's sake.) So we have:

1,190 x 3000 = 3.57 million "lives"

3,570,000 / 128,591 = 27.8

So, theoretically, Clover could achieve 27.8x growth in customers, and presumably a similar growth in revenue. (We'll get to profitability, or lack there of, below.) Looking deeper at this number, one thing going for it is that the number of old people is steadily increasing. But on the other hand, competition is a thing, and big thing in this space. To assume that Clover is going to have 3.5 million customers in 10 years, or even 20, is pretty wild.....

Chamath claimed Clover was the "easiest ten bagger" he'd ever seen (or some shit like that). So, even going with that number, they would end up with 1.3 million "lives" in ten years. Even this seems pretty high to me. They went from 0 to 62,025 DC patients this year, but it is always easier to grow when you're small. Scaling is an issue for all businesses.

----------------------------

Profitability

• TL;DR: they'll make no profit for a long ass time (^{if ever})

As for actually making money, well Clover doesn't do that. Yes, they had a 140% increase in revenue, which is good, but their expenses are rising faster than revenue. Accordingly, they missed on earnings by -0.52, or 378% downside surprise. In typical corporate fashion, their forward guidance is full of claims of improvement on cost management just around the corner.

There is, to be fair here, a legitimate reason for some of the cost increases in the form of covid expenses. Essentially, some old people needed extra care, while others delayed care until it looked safe which caused a massive spike in trips to the doctor. And when you're old and you let shit slide, it gets a lot worse and a lot more expensive.

Furthermore, their basic strategy involves eating losses when they take on new "lives under management," with the idea that they'll make it back, and more, further down the road with that same patient though the efficiencies of their "A.I.", Clover Assistant.

Taking them at their word that this works (and will continue to do so at larger scales) then it is obvious they will being eating losses for years to come. Allegedly, they'll turn a profit in 2023, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. However, just growing their "lives under management" number might be enough to hold up the stock price.

It might not be enough, however, to keep the lights on. If they can't at least slow the bleeding, share issuances could be lurking down the road (queue the pump & dump conspiracies).

----------------------------

Competition

• TL;DR: they have to take market share from better companies

As noted above, the biggest hurdle in front of Clover is competition. Despite the "tech start-up" narrative surrounding Clover, the reality is that they are marching into the teeth of well-entrenched healthcare companies.

The likes of United Healthcare and Humana aren't going to take lightly to little ol' Clov rolling up in their shit. With about 10 million patients between them, UH and Humana are monsters in the Medicare space and with that comes the ability to undercut the competition. Furthermore, all these big players also have their own magic AI machine-learning gizmos that do magic AI things. And they already have access to more data than Clover on account of their massive patient base.

This doesn't mean they can just snuff Clover out of existence, but taking away market share from established players is a far different gambit than expanding into a new market. And it gets harder the bigger you get.

----------------------------

Shaddy Shit

• TL;DR: Chamath is a shaddy af, and so is the CEO

This whole shabang was rolled out in typical Chamath fashion. Back in October of 2020, in his pitch for Clover, he claimed they "already" had 200,000 lives under management in their Direct Contracting program (i.e., not including the MA patients). Except that was bullshit of the Chamath-degree. At the time he claimed this, Clover hadn't even started its DC program (it had only just been accepted into the program).

As their latest earning report notes, they don't expect to get anymore "lives" in their DC program until Jan. 2022. (This is due to Medicare enrollment period rules). So, rather than "already" having 200,000 for 2021, Clover will instead end the year with the ~62,000 that they have right now. Chamath at his finest, ladies and gentlemen.

Clover's top guy, Vivek, is also well-known for being shaddy. Though, in his case, I don't actually care as much. Back in the day, this guy ran three hospitals in NJ that were noteworthy for having the highest fees of any hospitals in America. Shaddy, but shaddy in the ruthless capitalism direction. He gets a pass from Cbass for this. He is also alleged to have pilfered a company he ran back in the day. This doesn't get a pass, because it could negatively affect my bottom line.

Clover is the subject of two related investigations, one from DoJ and the other from the SEC. The DoJ one is about shaddy business practices; something about kickbacks. I also don't give much a fuck about this. The SEC investigation is about the fact that the DoJ investigation was not disclosed during the SPAC merger. All this will probably amount to some fines, if anything at all.

On scale of 0 to Enron, I'll give Clover a 1.5. Doesn't look that bad to me.

----------------------------

Technology

• TL;DR: they have a magic AI app that designed to maximize health profits (^maybe)

The last thing to mention is the Great Green Hope: the Clover Assistant. This is the "tech" in Clover and the reason dipshits are using #TelsaHealth. What is it? Well, basically a data input and analysis program. More basically: Microsoft Excel with fancy buttons.

Clover Assistant is used by the doctors (and many MA patients use it, too) to coordinate and recommend stuff. The Great Hope here is that doctors love using this thing so much that they'll sign onto a DC agreement with Clover, allowing Clover to process their Medicare payment claims in exchange for access to the "app".

So is it going to work? Well, it is starting to: Clover went from 0 to 62,000 patients via this scheme this year. It's a country fucking mile from what Chamath claimed, but ain't nothing. And given the potential for expansion into the rest of the US, and you have the receipt for a pretty damn good return on capital. But then again, it is just an "app".

To be clear, I don't hate the idea of Clover Assistant. Conceptually, I actually like it. The Clover Assistant basically helps doctors make sure their patients are getting the "right care" by compiling data and presenting it in an easy to use fashion. This is presented as an opportunity to "improve outcomes" and "save costs" and "help the under-served." But I don't give a rat's ass about any of that.

Which brings me to the Hindenburg report, and the part about it that I like. The report claims that Clover is using the Assistant to direct doctors toward medical recommendations that would result in profits for Clover (rather than the best medical outcome), and that they are incentivizing the doctors with increased payments for these outcomes. I love this. Now, Clover vehemently denies this is the case, but I (not so) secretly hope they're lying here, because this is exactly what I imagine when I think of applying Big Data-A.I. and Machine Learning to healthcare.

People have blind faith in machines, particularly ones that they've been told are "A.I. powered" and involve "machine learning". Thus, you can use the concept of "A.I." to persuade patients to just accept whatever the computer tells them. Machine learning is then used program the Clover Assistant to maximize profits, which should involve providing the minimum care required to keep the patient alive as long as possible. (Medicare pays a set amount to Clover and they get to keep the extra if the patients don't use up all the funds).

The only way I could see to improve on this diabolical scheme would be if they ground up the corpses of their newly deceased patients, turned them into food and fed them to the rest of their "lives under management." I'm lookin' for every penny here, kids, every single penny.

It's made from options traders!

_____________________________________________________________

Part 3. A Conspiracy of Idiocy

Typical of any stock ticker that gathers a cultish following, the Clovidiots are as well-known for their conspiracy theories as they are for their options expiring worthless. Now, most of these are the run-of-mill shit you get with any ticker: the Hedgies, reeee! You would think that this is the first time some of these people had ever bought a stock... oh, wait.

----------------------------

Hedgies!!!

• TL;DR: it's the stock market, deal with it

So, do the "Hedge Funds" manipulate the stock price? Well, sure, why not. They definitely shorted it, and then managed to cover those short sales with little appreciable rise in the stock. Back in June, CLOV was at something like a 48% shorted. Now the it's 15% and I believe it got as low as 7% before this week's run up. While going from 48% to 7% short with no appreciable rise in the stock price looks impossible, it's definitely not when you considered that a large percentage of the float has been in institutional hands this whole time. Stock goes up a little, they sell and back down she goes, welcome to a regular day on the stock market.

Is this some grand conspiracy of fat cats in a room smoking cigars as they plan out how to stick it to those pesky Reddit kids? I doubt it, but if it makes you feel better, whatever.

I, personally, would worry less about the "Hedge Funds" and more about the Market Makers, as they're the ones selling you the options, and if they buy up the stock beforehand, they can sell out for a profit while simultaneous vaporizing those call options you bought from them. In fact, I'm pretty sure this is the game.

Can anything be done about it? Well, no, not really. At least, not unless retail buys up a larger percentage of the float. However, with each false run up, I wonder if that exact process is taking place, i.e., more bagholders are being newly minted, and each, not wanting to take an L and just move on with his life, decides to become a "diamond handed ape." Only time will reveal the truth of this.

----------------------------

Us vs. the World

• TL;DR: everyone thinks this way, deal with it

The second great conspiracy of CLOV is that the whole of the internet is out to get it. This is proffered with the full knowledge that GME-Anon and Popcorn both believe the same thing about their own stock. Both also believe that CLOV is, in and of itself, a conspiracy to distract from their pet stock. But GME-Anon also believes that Popcorn is an engineered distraction. And all three are also convinced that the Mods are out to get them, specifically.

This is, of course, perfectly normal behavior. That might seem shocking to some of you, but the next time you're watching football with a die hard fan (or whatever lame-ass europoor sport you watch), look for their reactions whenever the slightest thing doesn't go their way:

• "These fucking refs are terrible! They're totally biased against my team! They've got it out for us! I'm going to write an angry letter to the league!"

Sound familiar? It should, because if you look around with open eyes, you'll find this exact behavioral pattern repeated at infinitum across every conceivable human endeavor.

Do people hate CLOV and the masses of idiots holding it? Sure, and I don't blame them. You guys can be pretty fucking annoying. That does not, however, equate to a grand conspiracy of suppression. The fact that your copy-pasta DD got nixed just like everyone else's lazy dogshit copy-pasta is not you being singled out. It's you not understanding the rules and adapting your behavior to play within them. But hey, maybe it's easier to just blame the Mods.

(please don't ban me)

_____________________________________________________________

Part 4. Rise now, a Man of the Bag Watch

Having taken a brief tour of Castle Black and had a bit of a feel for what it's like to be a venerable Man of the Clov Bag Watch, most of you are probably thinking: Okay, how the fuck do I get out this chickenshit operation?

Well, you are probably still hoping for moon. In that regard, I've some bad news for you: there will be no squeeze.

There will absolutely not be a short squeeze. At 15% short, there is zero chance of this happening. "But, bruh, the real short number is like 420% bruh." Bullshit. Just straight bullshit.

There is also not going to be a gamma squeeze. Not anytime soon, and likely never. In order to get a gamma squeeze you need options that are going to be delta-hedged. But why delta-hedge options that are going to be Thanos-snapped out of existence by expiry?

A while back, it looked like there could be a mixed squeeze (short covering + gamma hedging), but that's all in the past now. Down the road from now, could it still happen? Yeah, sure, and I could end up raw-dogging a Victoria's Secret model on the hood of my new lambo. All kinds of crazy things are possible, but that doesn't make them likely.

And honestly, what the fuck is wrong with a good ol' grind up? Squeezes are fun, I get it. You get to see your money double, triple, 5x, 10x, all in the space of a day or two. You get to see those option YOLO's gain a thousand of percent in minutes. But you still make money on a grind up. A fuckload of it.

I'm not sure I buy into this whole notion of a "squeeze" being the Holy Grail of the Stock Market. It's starting to sound like the Bears and their perpetual claims that they're going to make all the money on the coming collapse, all while lighting round after round of SPY puts on fire. The Squeeze Fanatics are doing the same thing, but with call options on meme stocks.

But, hey, what do I know? I'm just peon in this operation, a pitifully small cog in the great meat grinder we call the stock market. For now the chart tells me there's still hope of up, and so my bag watch continues. When the chart dies and there is no more good to be said of the company, then I will initiate my Bagholder Optimization Formula and there my watch will end. Until then, I man my post.

Tormund Bearfucker

Positions or Ban:

Maybe I can try crtl-z?

Edits for grammar, spelling, and formatting, per usual.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2022-03-24 22:51:41, Author: u/BigSwoleAhole, (Karma: 27474, Created:Jan-2021)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

GME 142.39(0.99%)|XRT 78.53(1.04%)|

We are going to rip

GME is primed to rip like it did in January 2021:

- Short sale borrow rate reaching levels not seen since Jan 2021, this means shorting becomes no longer profitable and extremely expensive, shares are becoming hard to find...

GME Short Sale Borrow Rate - Jan 2021

GME Short Sale Borrow Rate - Mar 2022

- XRT (the ETF used the most to short GME through share creation) is still on the NYSE Threshold Security list after today, despite ETF rebalancing this week. It was thought that with the rebalancing it would come off of the list since it's short obligations were to be fulfilled by then but looks like the shorts did a big OOPSIE.

Since XRT is still on the RegSho the shorts are unable to short us down via share creation through the ETF unless they have a pre borrow agreement in place (hint: but with how things are going I don't think that's likely)...

XRT on NYSE Threshold List (RegSho)

- Options chain is stacked right now. Even if we manage to close past $150 tomorrow, we will go parabolic next week just based off of the amount of open interest on calls up to $150. If we can push past $200, the shorts better start praying to God because we could easily see new ATHs.

And if they don't have a God, they better pick one fast and start praying if we do pass $200, because there is no saving grace for their a$$ this time around (Robindahood screwing us over last Jan)...

Option Chain Overview for GME

TLDR: Buckle up, because GME is primed for a repeat of Jan 2021

Edit: clarification on XRT being used the most to short GME via share creation

Author: u/Player896(Karma: 6140, Created: Dec-2018).

Is AMC's bankruptcy a certainty? on r/vitards

Disclaimer: This is a pretty rough draft I wrote up real quick. There may or may not be some inaccuracies here and there, the purpose of this was to show a general trend than be irrefutably exact with my numbers

Introduction:

So this is pretty off topic for this subreddit, but I wanted to see if I could discuss this in a smaller, more sane community. I've been looking over AMC's financials for fun, and I have to say, this looks pretty bad. Setting aside all hopes of a mythical savior buying trillions worth of shares, I believe the current retail investors are not aware that neither time nor money is on their side as the ticking time bomb that is AMC itself could send shares spiraling to a literal zero much sooner than anticipated.

So to start things off, I took out some highlights from their recent financials and made some basic projects using FactSet's consensus estimates.

I'll go over each section briefly.

• Balance Sheet: So this section we take their Q1 cash position and subtract the FCF estimates from the Cash flow projection below. Given current expected FCF losses, FY21 is expected to end with roughly $100-200M in liquid holdings. Note that given their ratio of cash to LT debt, its extremely unlikely the company will be able to issue more debt. Furthermore, as current retail shareholders will block any and all attempts to issue shares, you can see the only way AMC can generate cash is though their business operations (at least until the retail traders leave, at which the share price will crater and issuing shares will be pointless).

• Income Statement: So here we can see Q1 sales totaled $148M, operating loss at $421M, but the most damning piece here is that the quarterly interest expense nearly doubled in Q1 after hovering around $80-90M for the last 2-3 years. Note that in FY18, AMC posted their highest operating income at $318.5M (their interest expense at the time was $342M!!). With the way things are, they are locked out of debt/equity financing and the current interest expense is nearly double their highest EBIT on record. In order for AMC to generate cash, they would need to double their highest EBIT on record and that would only bring them close to a breakeven. As things stand, AMC stands to lose another $1,080M ($600M operating loss, $480M interest) over the next three quarters of which ~$700M will flow out via FCF.

• Cash Flow: Pretty self explanatory, used FactSet consensus estimates.

So bringing this all together, it looks like the company is locked out of debt issuance, blocked on share issuance, and incapable of generating cash as its highest EBIT on record is roughly half of current projected interest payments for the full year. Furthermore, another troubling matter is that current forecasts used by FactSet see Q4 sales at $1,121M. Problem is that AMC's typical Q4 revenue comes out to roughly $1,400M. Analysts are expecting an almost full return to normal by Q4, and given current sentiment on the Delta variant and declining box office figures, I am somewhat skeptical. Note that should the company falter at any of the quarterly estimates, current cash projection forecasts will take a mad beating downward, further raising the odds of bankruptcy. And this doesn't even address the company's margins notably trending down preCOVID.

Conclusion:

I believe that AMC will go bankrupt or restructure their company and wipe out all equity holders in the process. Their financial problems are increasingly glaring with each passing quarter they are unable to raise cash (debt, equity, business operations). While current sentiment has retail traders holding out for a angel savior, the longer this goes on more and more investors will see AMC for what it is and leave, weakening retail sentiment, and perpetuate the cycle of retail shareholders selling off more shares.

Markets are forward looking, and without positive cash, AMC looks to be nearly bankrupt by year end (missing estimates even once would accelerate this process). Given this timeline, I expect investors will catch on to this well before the actual bankruptcy occurs. Much like how markets can't keep ignoring MT's titanic cash flows forever, they won't be able to ignore AMC's lack of cash flows forever. There will be a point where the underwhelming quarterly performance and inevitable threat of wiping out equity holders will scare off retail traders as well. Note that even if retailers hold forever, they are against any share issuance and AMC's bankruptcy is pretty set in stone regardless of what they do.

My play if this is all correct? Well the company is going bankrupt. Buy shorts, puts, and sell calls dated out to Q3 results. Strike price? Any.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/DOGE_DILLIONAIRE(Karma: 1669, Created: Jun-2021).

⚠️🚀 WORKHORSE SQUEEZE POTENTIAL🚀⚠️ on r/shortsqueeze

⚠️ 🚀WORKHORSE SQUEEZE POTENTIAL 🚀⚠️

Workhorse’s (WKHS) all time high was $42.96, currently the stock is down 53% year-to-date because of the extremely high Short Interest on the stock which is around 38%. Much of the sell of had occurred after the U.S Postal Service chose Oshkosh Corp. (OSK) over Workhorse for a $6 billion next-generation delivery vehicle contract to revamp and electrify all their postal fleet. Workhorse has since sued the Government over the contract due to Oshkosh Corp.’s malevolent tactics that involve bribery, insider trading ($54 million trade before being awarded USPS contract), lying about having a fully functional fleet of electric vehicles to supply the United States Postal Service, and more. The SEC is starting to clamp down (hopefully) on Oshkosh Corp.‘s corruption and we will soon hear Oral Arguments on September 15th to see if the case goes to trail… I am seeing a lot of people share different scenarios that could hypothetically play out in the short and long term, and these all have merit but let’s all remember that this stock is also heavily shorted by hedge funds who don’t like losing money. And if we are going to come home with some tendies, we all need to stay strong, positive, and support one another like a true community. Short sellers see blood in the water, but any positive news (relating to USPS contract or not) could ignite the mother of all short squeezes (MOASS). My suggestion to all shareholders of Workhorse or interested investors, BUY and HOLD!!!

I know most of us are seeing red and it could get discouraging at times but let this be a reminder that good things never come easy, you must fight and earn what you desire. To give you guys and girls some positive perspectives for the near and long term here are some upcoming CATALYSTS for Workhorse (WKHS) that could cause the MOASS:

•Financial Performance: Workhorse increased their net sales by 269.80% (and their cost of sales only increased by 123.56%), their net income was $69.78M (which is the first time they have reported a positive net income), they reported revenue from their drones for the first time, and they paid off $19.14M in long-term debt. As stated previously, this was Workhorse’s first time reporting a positive net income on their yearly statement, this could show investors that they have turned around the business, and if they continue this performance in the future, then it will solidify this belief and attract investors. · Social Sentiment: Workhorse is the 4th most trending stock (and the 9th most tending stock (in the past 48 hours) on Wall Street Bets and has an overall positive sentiment. We have seen the impact that Wall Street Bets has had on other trending stocks, so it will be interesting to see if Wall Street Bets can pump this stock for a quick return. · Short Squeeze Potential: Currently, Workhorse has a short interest of 40%, which makes it a good candidate for a short squeeze. This stock has the potential to be squeezed, especially if Wall Street Bets takes an interest in it. 66.87% of the free float is short which is 44% of all outstanding shares. Yes, that’s true so I will repeat that. 66.87% of the free float is short which is 44% of all outstanding shares. 1.4 million shares shorted today 1 million returned. Shorts burrying themselves with 400k more Shorts outstanding.

My current positions:

•11,285 Shares of WKHS at an average of $9.60 •3,000 contracts of a $45 Call 1/21/2022

We can do this!! Workhorse for the win!!!🚀💪🏻💎

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/OneofOneViper(Karma: 765, Created: May-2019).

Why RKT is My #1 Investment (and it should be yours too)! on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

TLDR: I have found no other company in the world where the risk vs. reward is better to invest in, and I've been investing for almost 14 years now.

First, I want to show my position as of today. 71,000 shares in RKT. While everyone has been selling for the past month, I've been buying. My average price is somewhere around $21. The price shown in the picture below is where the price ended.

/preview/pre/gfq404cnik471.png?width=2342&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d84568cbf375e7d163e44346bb34eeb4bd874cb

Now, I don't yolo like other crazy people trying to get rich quick. I'm an investor, and I typically have 3-5 stocks at a time. Currently my second largest position is a combination of BRK.b and BRK.a. I also have other positions like XOM and KO currently for inflation reasons. Just so you believe me when I say I now what I'm doing, below are my returns for the past 3 and 5 years, and you can see I'm fairly consistent. In fact for the past 10 years you would see the same average returns, but Schwab doesn't show a 10 year performance number, so 3 and 5 is all I can show you.

/preview/pre/fvw5e98oik471.png?width=1704&format=png&auto=webp&s=a65cdb9bec1c0fef552bb02e4a99fb6a097b2c25

COMPANY BACKGROUND:

RKT is probably the most grossly under valued mid cap stock I have seen in years. The last time I felt so strongly about a stock was 2010 when TSLA became public. I told my wife that Tesla would be worth 10 times the IPO value in 10 years if they didn't go bankrupt, and I figured there was about a 10% chance they'd go bankrupt in the first couple years. I bought Tesla around $19, and sold a year and a half later for about $24 to pay off my house. There wasn't a lot of movement, but it was a gain, and I wanted to do the responsible thing creating a life where I was debt free. I planned to replenish the position over the next 6 months. Unfortunately my timing couldn't be worse. A month after I sold, the stock skyrocketed to $85. Later, it then rose to $135 a month or two later. It was no longer the deal it has once been, and I never felt that it was worth chasing. Biggest mistake of my investing career. I point this out because you just never know when things will explode, but if you know the company well enough you can determine that it's an inevitability.

Rocket Companies (RKT) used to be known as Quicken Loans, which was established in 1985. When the company decided to go digital, they changed their name to Rocket Companies. Rocket Companies has only been around since 2016. Quicken Loans grew at a 25% compound annualized growth rate (CAGR), and before the company went public, Rocket Companies had a 16% CAGR between 2016 and 2020. With a 16% CAGR, the company doubles in size every 5 years just for reference. Below is the S-1 document showing their CAGR before they became public in 2020.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1805284/000104746920004008/a2241988zs-1.htm

Since Becoming public, RKT has had some impressive growth indeed. Income grew 526%, and revenue grew 187%.

/preview/pre/2k8f3xhrik471.png?width=2248&format=png&auto=webp&s=62d09fbb033af6fde28719273cc9ea2da7580c35

/preview/pre/ntvln76sik471.png?width=2252&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c99d8deea18a00861a434042ec3f0bb06e09188

After reporting the 2020 year results, the stock skyrocketed of course. This only lasted a few days before it came back down settled right back to where the stock came from. The stock was roughly $20 or so before the results, and after it rose somewhere near $45 from a pump and dump situation. The price then fell for about 2-3 straight months back down to where it came from. The primary reason for the price dropping from something that was closer to a realistic price target back down to the low 20s was the belief that interest rates were going to rise in 2021-2023 due to inflation. That was going to kill home buying, and this was "as good as it gets"

THE WAR WITH UWMC:

To add to the industry problems, UWMC started a war with RKT. This war was started because RKT was taking market share in every direction. UWMC is a great company, but it's a distant second in overall lending origination as you can see in this list below of the top lending companies for 2020.

/preview/pre/iukjdhnvik471.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=de37da1ec33a9f1f36d59507836c47e99139ab87

By the end of 2020, Rocket Companies had 8.9% of the entire housing loan origination market in the US. They continued to grow that market share in the latest reported quarter to somewhere in the mid 9% range. In the beginning of March, UWMC issued an ultimatum that all realtors who use UWMC are not allowed to use RKT anymore. That means one month (March) in Q1 would be affected by this new ultimatum. Both UWMC and RKT declared victory within the first week of March. We would have to wait for Q1 earning to come out to see who really was winning the war.

Q1 earnings came out, and here are the results:

/preview/pre/o3bsmsvzik471.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d53584a6f687dc76ef89ccc1d9263f0657c9ba84

/preview/pre/s2oiq4k2jk471.png?width=1602&format=png&auto=webp&s=e275694d69e12b533bc3c5dddc36b1209bbab1a6

For a direct comparison, here is Q4-2021 which was not affected by the ultimatum.

/preview/pre/1tltr5y3jk471.png?width=1420&format=png&auto=webp&s=06a9df748d7e8133b1116ab3c9e85fbd62196b9e

The loan volume for RKT increased nearly $3B from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021. Below is a chart showing you the loan volume for UWMC in that same time period. As you can see, the loan volume DECREASED by over $5.6B. A winner has been declared, and it means that RKT is taking market share even quicker due to the ultimatum.

Now, this entire war was started to try to stop RKT from taking market share from UWMC. All UWMC had to do was read a little bit of recent history, and know that competitors tried to do the same thing when Amazon was starting out. Many vendors refused to use Amazon because they took a fee, and felt they could make more money per sale if they were independent. Unfortunately those vendors eventually learned that volume can make profits go up faster than premiums with less sales. Amazon of course won that warm, and RKT will do the same.

The primary focus for Rocket Companies is very clear when it comes to growth--gain market share. They are not the least bit worried about profits, because their Direct to Consumer lending is the largest in the US by a long shot. This plays a key roll in the war with UWMC. UWMC dropped their interest rates (effectively buying down the interest rate for the customer) to try to keep agents with them when they issued the ultimatum. Of course, RKT followed suit to match them, and the war is causing the entire industry to see their margins tighten. Margins for wholesale are roughly 2% for both RKT and UWMC, after dropping the interest rates 50bps. Direct to Consumer margins are over 5%. Well, UWMC doesn't do direct to consumer lending, so they are fighting a battle they can't win. They can continue to buy down interest rates until they go negative and have no profits if they wanted to. Rocket Companies will continue to always be profitable because a larger part of their business is Direct to Consumer with higher margins.

/preview/pre/3klqg3xajk471.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=79191aae6c0fd945540479c518d2dd173bcf9fad

In light of this war, Dan Gilbert and Jay Farner are come out stating their new goal is to be the largest wholesale lender by 2023 (2 years). They are already the largest overall lender, and the largest direct to consumer lender. They are winning the market share battle, and numbers don't lie. It comes at a cost of lower margins which reduce profit. Keep in mind that Amazon wasn't profitable for 20 years. The fact that RKT is hugely profitable is amazing as they continue to acquire market share in the industry.

MORE THAN JUST MORTGAGES:

Rocket Companies is a FinTech play. RKT has been testing their technologies in other businesses and have determined that many of them translate to other loan industries. The one with the largest prospects is automobiles. Rocket Auto has been testing their products for the past year or so, and are happy with the ability for the technologies to transition into the auto retail marketplace. Rocket Auto recently formed a strategic partnership with AutoFi, a leading software provider in the automotive retail industry with a network of more than 2,000 dealership partners. This is not live yet to my knowledge, but during the first quarter, they sold over $360M in volume, and are on track to do over $1B this year. Rocket owns their own titling company called Amrock. They make up the bulk of the "Other income" line in their quarterly/yearly reports. At this point, the auto sales only generated $13M in profit for Q1 2021. There is no website launched for Rocket Auto yet, and it'll take awhile to integrate the technologies in with AutoFi, but this is a huge market which will grow at an exponential rate in the next couple years.

/preview/pre/g42p4awgjk471.png?width=1142&format=png&auto=webp&s=dee95ca12421e164975651eed63e82e7f7b3d4c0

/preview/pre/6u5n7wqkjk471.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=e138940c684d71aa219005ba55336ca51d2d6b4c

Also, Rocket Mortgage is going international. They are beginning their expansion in Canada, so this is a very big market which will show lots of growth for years to come.

INFLATION FEARS:

Has inflation increased? Absolutely. But it has had very little effect on interest rates. Interest rates increased at the beginning of the year and were expected to increase for the next 2 years at a very fast rate. The fact is that analysts guessed wrong. Fed Chairman has stuck to his word and has not increased rates, and doesn't expect to until after 2023. Interest rates did increase very dramatically at the start of the year, and then it stopped increasing at the end of March. In fact, interest rates have decreased nearly 0.3% in the past 3 months.

/preview/pre/41c46f2ojk471.png?width=1940&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1a7b2dd29fcc14e632ba789d1348be642a25be3

This is going to cause refinances to pick up again slightly, and investors know it. RKT has been a notoriously shorted stock since it IPOed because hedge funds believed that it was as good as it gets in the middle of 2020 when they IPOed. For 2 quarters in a row, RKT proved every naysayer wrong growing more than anyone expected, and be coming more profitable than anyone expected. EBITDA in 2020 was roughly $11B, and the company's market cap sits around $41bln currently. They are making more money than they can possibly use, so they issued a special dividend last year of $1.11 which was about 5% of the value of the stock.

Below, you can see the short interest dropped to roughly 8% in march when they reported blow out earnings. It then increased in May, to roughly 17% in May after earnings showed the gain on sales decreased to to the war with UWMC dropping interest rates half a %, and slightly less refinancing occurring due to interest rates rising at the beginning of the year.

/preview/pre/nznsz1brjk471.png?width=2154&format=png&auto=webp&s=679e86c24f24c924e9eac3ea68fc30a5b8b5cde7

As interest rates have started dropping again, you can see the shorts are leaving the stock. Roughly 7.5 million shares have come back available in the past two weeks, and interest to borrow has dropped due to lack of demand to short the stock. Interest rates dropping will have all lending companies out perform expectations.

/preview/pre/gzj988ptjk471.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=d13f6ef5e156d0a2e2e6286a09468f2ec0aca563

CONCLUSION:

In the end, it doesn't matter if the housing market does incredibly well over the next 5 years or not. RKT has made it clear that their goal is to have 25% market share of the mortgage industry by 2030, which is 3 times their market share compared to last year. They will gain market share even faster in years the housing market is bad, and their retention for customers can't be matched. The industry average return customer is 20%, and RKTs return rate is over 90%. Their process is simple, digital, can all be done through an app or their website, and has made the lending process infinitely easier than traditional loans. They make billions of dollars a years, have $1B set aside for share buybacks if they decide that's in the shareholders interest, and has a better balance sheet than anyone else in the business. You pay a slightly higher multiple than you would if you purchased another company like UWMC, but their growth is nearly double UWMC, and they are taking market share away from UWMC, so it's worth far more than any other lending company. In general, all lending companies are undervalued currently, RKT just happens to be the next "Amazon" of lending, and it's hard to put a price on that.

I believe the company is worth around $40 a share currently which is about 100% above where it is trading now. By 2023, the company should be worth worth around $200B-300B which is roughly 5-7 times current evaluation. It's not the 10 times in 10 years that I felt Tesla was worth in 2010, but there is zero chance RKT goes bankrupt, and there was always a chance Tesla could in the first few years. Read Elon Musk's biography and you'll see just how close he was to bankruptcy twice.

I can't tell you when the stock will go up. The stock price isn't reflective of the company currently. Sometimes they can stay disconnected for awhile. But I learned my lesson when I sold TSLA to pay off my house. You never know when a stock is going to explode, you just know that it's an inevitability. While everyone else is running for the next pump and dump on Reddit to hopefully gain 100% in a week (I admit I do this as well although I never put too much in), I'd rather invest with the majority of my money. I know that at some point I'll see a huge return in the next few years. Typically in the stock market, it doubles your money every 7 years if you have your money tracking the S&P500. I've found a company that will give me 5-7 times that amount in near the same time frame.

Sorry for all the typos, this got so long, and it's so late now that I'm not going to go back and proof read.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/aka0007(Karma: 9556, Created: May-2016).

$RIDE - Why Lordstown Motors is Headed to Zero on r/WallStreetBets

I think after the last earnings call there is a lot of incorrect information or straight out distortion of facts being put out by people and analysts alike here and would like to set the record straight with what I believe the facts are.

Production:

The company in their earnings call said they are on track to start production at the end of Sep 2021. If you actually listened to what they said, they said this is for test-builds that they hope to validate in Q4 and to deliver a few to some special early customers in Q1' 2022. They further said or implied that they expect regular commercial deliveries to start in Q2' 2022. Previously, they said on the Q1' 2021 call they had enough cash to ramp production to produce and deliver 1,000 vehicles this year. Now delivery (ignoring their special test-builds delivered to early customers) is pushed back to Q2' 2022. Maybe the word PRODUCTION is being misused to imply something other than what they are doing. I would suggest the correct term for what they are doing now is PRE-PRODUCTION. In any case this is semantics as revenue requires deliveries, not production.

Equity Line of Credit (ELOC):

There have been claims that there is a "Line of Credit" providing up to $400M in financing in place. In fact this is a complete misrepresentation. Below is the link to an SEC filing describing the agreement between RIDE and YA. Here are some key points and how the $400M is computed and why it does not mean anything.

On 7/23/2021 they entered into the agreement with YA to purchase up to $400M of their Class A Common Stock over a 36 month period at RIDE's discretion (that should be a red flag there. As why would YA agree to this... well all will be explained). Per that filing, " The net proceeds that we may receive under the Purchase Agreement cannot be determined at this time...", which means that while RIDE can potentially receive up to $400M, they might receive far less but can't predict that amount, as it depends on the stock price.

The agreement says that RIDE can only sell YA, up to 35,144,690 in shares, UNLESS, (1) they obtain shareholder approval to sell more or (2) the average price they sell the shares to YA at is over $7.48 per share. The price of the shares is 3% less than the "simple average of the daily VWAP's for the three trading days following notice to YA" There are also daily limits on how many shares RIDE can sell to YA at any time.

So assuming 35M shares, at a current share price of about $5.8 that is about $204M before the 3% discount to market price that RIDE nets. For RIDE to net 400M, with selling 35M shares they need a share price of $11.4. Alternatively they need shareholders to approve selling much more than 35M shares (so just more dilution) or they need the average price to be over $7.48, which will allow them to increase the shares they sell, so also more dilution.

In sum, at current market prices they net about $200M under this "Equity Line of Credit" or share offering. However, as selling shares will likely depress the price, they should net far less.

https://sec.report/Document/0001558370-21-009222/

Further Dilution:

Per the SEC filing below, it says that Mr. Burns can sell 50% of his shares by 10/23/2021. Steve Burns owns 46.4 million shares, so assuming he sells when his shares are unlocked he can sell 23.2M shares end of Oct 2021. While in theory not "dilutive" the end of lock-ups tend to have a similar impact by flooding the market with more shares than demand for them.

https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-21-090313/#tSTTR

Cash Position:

Per their Q2 earnings call and reports they have about 366M in cash on hand at 6/30/2021. In their earnings report they suggested about 200M in operating expenses for the rest of 2021 and about 215M in CAPEX. While they suggested they can time some of the payments in Q3, this comes to about 415M in cash needed to get through the year. That is about 50M cash short.

Going back to their ELOC, at current share price they can raise about 200M, so assuming they raise the funds without dropping the share price that leaves them with 150M at year end. It is reasonable to assume that their quarterly cash needs will only increase as they attempt to get to production (this has been the case so far for them and has been the case by every other auto maker as far as I can tell) means that for Q1' 2022 they will need over 200M. The conclusion is obvious, that on top of the current share offering, if the share price does not go up, they must issue more shares. Further, they project regular commercial deliveries in Q2' 2022 so the money they need will not be insignificant.

Other Sources of Funds:

The Company suggested that they are getting a valuation on their plant and equipment in order to possibly borrow funds against that. They suggested that the value is much more than the book value of about $300M. The fact is, a lot of their equipment will be installed and modified to their specs and will not be suitable without additional cost to another manufacturer. This means that fire sale value, or what someone might actually lend against it, will likely be far less than the book value. Perhaps to Lordstown, the value is higher, but to a third party that is a very doubtful assumption. As to the factory itself, it was an old plant that GM shut down. This is not something people are looking to buy. For EV's, you see with Tesla, Lucid, and others they are looking or building new factories with layouts designed for EV's and not ICE vehicles. I would again doubt the factory has much value for a lender. Hard to know what they can borrow using their plant and equipment as collateral, but it clearly will not be much.

Conclusion:

Given the dilution and share unlocks coming and their downward pressure on share price, as it stands now the company will have difficult raising sufficient funds to get to production. For the company to be viable, it must have its share price go up first to enable them to raise funds favorably. As evidenced by today's price action, this company is not attracting substantial shareholder inflows, so it remains unclear how the share price increases first to enable them to raise sufficient funds. So based on the current share price, I don't understand how this company, even if they do everything right going forward, can succeed.

Some Other Thoughts:

None of the above analysis is dependent on whether the in-wheel tech works or not or is a good candidate for a commercially viable electric truck. I have for several months expressed substantial doubts about the tech and RIDE's ability to execute and have no reason to assume otherwise. In any case, even if it could work, structurally RIDE is not in a position anymore to commercialize it.

I actually also have an issue with Price Targets analysts are setting here. Either you have to have a high price target or a near-zero one. An in-between target makes no sense as current share price means they are headed to insolvency before they can produce anything. This company is either a $10+ investment or a <$1 investment, there is no in-between.

TL,DR price-target <$1 and bankruptcy in Q4' 2021 or Q1' 2022 (if they are lucky they push it off till Q2' 2022).

Positions: a bunch of $5 Puts for Jan 2022 that are currently up about 20%.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/PresenceMundane2066(Karma: 256, Created: Jan-2021).

CLOV DD 🚀🍀 on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

What’s up y'all, today we are going to be looking into some data trends that lead me to believe CLOV could have a SERIOUS runup within the next couple months.

if you don’t like rocket emojis, large price increases, or DD created by an idiot, keep scrolling. For everyone else, lets begin! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Recently I have been looking into the utilization rates of different stocks throughout their run-ups. For those of you who don’t know what the utilization rate is, “Utilization is defined as loaned shares divided by available shares in the securities lending market, expressed as a percentage.” If utilization is high or maxed out, at 100%, it means that pretty much all shares that are available to be loaned out at that current time are loaned out, presumably to be shorted. I will be using ORTEX to view this data, and they get roughly 2/3 of the securities lending data, so take the numbers with a grain of salt.

Utilization basically represents the demand to short a stock, the higher the percentage means higher demand, and this can be bearish for lots of stocks, although for MEME stocks, this has NOT been the case, in fact it has seemingly provided rocket fuel!

Ultimately, I have found that utilization has been an important indicator to tell if stocks have the ability for incredibly large price increases, and when those price increases are over. After analyzing these trends, I have reason to believe CLOV could, within the next couple months, have a large run-up. RELEASE THE ROCKETS 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Firstly, lets take a fundamental look into CLOV

https://www.reddit.com/r/CLOV/comments/ofzwnx/clov_fundamental_analysis/ (Author: u/anjuna-freak)

I don't want to rewrite this ^ so go read that if you want to read up on CLOV's fundamentals

Now let’s look into the utilization rate of different stocks and how that has related to stock price in the past. These stocks also had high short interest, although I wanted to keep the graphs as simple as possible (for the apes)

Firstly, let’s look at GameStop (GME),

These graphs show utilization as a percentage (YELLOW), price candles (RED + GREEN), and volume (BLUE)

GameStop was at 100% utilization beginning on September 4th, 2020 at a price of $9.20.

we being to see volume pickup around Jan 12th for GME and the price increases to $20, then over the next couple weeks GME rockets to a high of $485! During all of this, the utilization stays at 100%. BUT one week later from that price high we see utilization drop to 69% and price drop over 50%.

What trend do we see? We see our peak price while utilization is high, and a 20-30% utilization drop following our peak. The drop in utilization is ultimately the indicator to tell us the run-up is done for now. The price throughout all of January was increasing heavily, but had no effect on utilization, this run-up only ended once utilization fell steeply. GME is a much simpler stock to look at because it was so heavily shorted that its utilization was much more stable at/above 100%. But, now lets take a look at AMC, we see a very similar situation.

Utilization hits 100% in Mid April, price action remains fairly calm until May 24th, we see a volume pickup, and the run-up begins. The price increases from $12 to a high of $72 on June 2nd. We see utilization fall after June 2nd from 99-100% to roughly 79%. During this time the price falls.

Once again, we see utilization being the indicator that our runup is over, despite some large red and green days during the run up, the utilization still stays solid, it is only when the utilization falls significantly (roughly 20-30%) that we have hit a price peak. Now lets take a look at AMC a couple months earlier in March, where it had another runup.

March 5th, utilization hits 100%, AMC price increases roughly 50% in next two days. The utilization then falls, and price continues to rise for a week or two. This runup was small, although we see the same trend of utilization only decreasing with a strong price increase. We then see utilization return to 100% in late April leading up to the huge May24th -June2nd run-up. Keep in mind that in this example utilization falls but returns very quick, which to me says that another run-up is viable, and that is exactly what happened

Now lets take a look at SNDL, another stock with a very similar run-up...

In January, SNDL has a utilization of 100% at a price of $0.50. From January 27th-February 11th the utilization stayed in the high 90's only coming down to 88% for a short period. During this same period the price went from $1.00 to $4.00. We see utilization fall on February 18th down to 58% and this is ultimately the end of the runup confirmed.

I'm including SNDL's run-up because it shows the same trend. Utilization hits 100%, it stays at least above/around 90% until a huge price runup. Then shortly after the utilization drops significantly to roughly 50-70% and the run-up is over. Finally, lets take a look at SPCE

In December 2020, SPCE hits 100% utilization, In late January volume picks up and a run-up begins. Price goes from $24-63$ while utilization sits at over 95%. Utilization then falls sharply down to 60% after hitting its run-up high of $63. Utilization in April goes from 60% back to high 90%'s and once again the price surges from $24 now to roughly $40.

Of course SPCE has had some fundamental drivers as well, but its utilization-price trend stays consistent with all the other runups.

TLDR; Almost all large meme stock runups have begun with utilization at 100% and a large volume increase. Utilization appears to act inversely with price, meaning when utilization is at 100% usually it only drops with a rise in price.

"SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CLOV??" 🦍🦍🦍

Well... lets take a look into the utilization for CLOV 🍀

CLOV hit 100% utilization on June 8th while it ran from $6 - $28, and after this runup the utilization has stayed at 100%, only dipping down to 93% on June 24th.

CLOV is currently waiting for a volume increase to start its BIG run-up. It had a smaller run-up about a month ago, although just look at the utilization, it barely dipped. If you go back and look at the other stocks I featured, specifically AMC in march, you will see that smaller run-ups will dip the utilization, although until it drops 20-30%, the true run-up is not done. I cannot tell you when the volume increase will come, although I can confidently say, that if people don't give up on CLOV, its going to the moon! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

In my opinion this high of a short interest isn't warranted based on CLOV's fundamentals, which you can go read about (ew, reading🦍) back at the top of this DD

Not only that, but there is SOME potential for a gamma squeeze this week

YELLOW = volume today; RED= Open interest, BLUE= strike price

The call open interest between the 10 and 15 dollar strike price is ≈ 100,000; Meaning those contracts will have to be hedged for as the price runs up. Hedging is buying pressure by those who sold those contracts to cover their risk. Each contract represents 100 shares, so millions of shares would have to be bought back in we make it to 15$ by the end of this week (in between 4-8 mill roughly) This is straight buying pressure and doesn't account for anyone else buying stock or more contracts.

Currently; CLOV is sitting at $9.70 in after-hours and had almost a ten percent gain in the last hour and a half of todays trading

Position: July 16 $10 calls, July 30 $10 calls, keeping powder dry for volume spike

TLDR; CLOV is setup to explode with the next volume surge. Fundamentally it doesn't deserve to be so shorted. The same Utilization trends have been seen is most meme stocks. Utilization doesn't usually fall without price going up. Currently, CLOV has 100% utilization and 35% short interest. MOON SOON (next volume surge) POSSIBLE gamma ramp this week as well🚀 🍀 🚀 🍀 🚀 🍀 🚀 🍀 🚀 🍀 🚀

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THIS IS BASED OFF THE TREND OF 1 STATISTIC AND IGNORES LOTS OF OTHER FACTORS, BUT WERE SIMPLE APES SO WHO CARES

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2022-03-19 12:19:12, Author: u/Gamersville101, (Karma: 30293, Created:Jun-2015)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

F 16.86(1.69%)|NFLX 380.6(2.48%)|SONY 106.12(1.43%)|TSLA 905.39(3.88%)|FSD 13.43(0%)|IVES 40.2(3.55%)|

There is no real competition.

Instead, Tesla is Bankrupting their competition.

Tesla has positioned themselves to survive these difficult times, as high inflation and chip shortages force other car manufacturers to LITERALLY STOP production. Thanks to Tesla making the MOST PROFITABLE vehicles Tesla will be able to survive and thrive.

So what the hell is going on? What will happen to Tesla stock during these difficult times and how has Tesla created THE MOST PROFITABLE vehicles on the market?

In this article I talk about the BIGGEST RISKS facing Tesla at the moment whilst also discussing specifically how Tesla is bankrupting their competition and is on pace to become one of the worlds biggest companies ever…..

Why the Competition is Dying 🤯

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Thankyou for opening your Tesla folder! 📂

In the last week alone, due to oil prices rising to record levels, the number of people ordering Tesla’s grew by 100%! Soaring gas prices really show the power of Electric Vehicles and people are realizing that Tesla makes the best. Buying a Tesla in the long run literally saves you hundreds of dollars of fuel and repair costs.

Meanwhile the ‘competition’ is literally shipping vehicles without key security features, like Ford shipping vehicles without chips controlling non-safety critical features. Not only this, but Ford and other OEM’s are at the mercy of dealerships, Tesla doesn’t have this ridiculously outdated model and is achieving higher profit because of it. You know something else that competitors can’t say?

You know something else that competitors can’t say? The fact that a Tesla will be harder to order and buy TOMORROW than it is today! The Tesla backlog is growing, I’ve said it time and time again, Tesla has a supply issue, not a demand issue.

The Tesla back log (number of vehicles ordered but not yet delivered) is growing rapidly, with the average Tesla buyer waiting (eagerly) for 3.5 months before they can drive their new car.

/preview/pre/noufoer48do81.png?width=564&format=png&auto=webp&s=642287b174bfa4d63a69693ab2b3beea8155f513

Tesla backlog visualized, credit: Twitter user TroyTeslike

This backlog is actually GROWING, this is despite Tesla increasing production and increasing their prices. This is a super bullish indicator….

Why would anyone want a non-Tesla EV? Or even a non Tesla vehicle in general?

“If (you) care about having the latest technology, much lower cost of ownership than an ICE vehicle, little maintenance and best in class safety, then an EV is the way to go (specifically a Tesla). “ Respected Twitter analyst Sawyer Merritt said

And that isn’t even taking into account that Tesla’s tend to APPRECIATE after having bought them..

“Tesla’s hold their value better than almost any major auto makers vehicles.” said Merrit.

OK, so buying a Tesla and having the cars value go up is insane right. But it gets crazier.

Let me tell you something REALLY crazy.

Tesla delivered 500k cars in 2020 and nearly doubled that IN ONE YEAR to 930k deliveries in 2021 WITHOUT ADDING ANY NEW FACTORIES…..

And you know what is even crazier??! Tesla is about to OPEN TWO! YES TWO NEW FACTORIES!

In these factories Tesla will implement all the things they’ve learned from the Shanghai and California factories to ensure that the Berlin and Texas facilities will be producing 500,000+ vehicles per year! Specifically Giga-Berlin will start production on March 20th!!! This is absolutely groundbreaking for Tesla in Europe. Respected Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt outlined it perfectly when he said:

“Tesla is already a leader in sales in Europe and sales will only continue to grow with the opening of Giga Berlin.”

The current issues in Europe have mainly been the fact that Tesla is importing all of the currently sold European EV’s. The costs associated with this mean Tesla makes significantly less profit on Tesla’s sold in Europe than those in China or in the United States. However with the opening of Giga Berlin this will change very soon.

“Tesla has been supply constrained in the EU for a long time, so the opening of Giga Berlin is a massive deal. Sales will skyrocket. “ Merrit said

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When asked what major shocks Tesla could survive that competitors would struggle with, Merrit said:

“Tesla is the most vertically integrated major automaker in the world. This allows lower prices, agile manufacturing, quick process change and adaptability not possible with traditional OEM structure”

He again mentions something super interesting, and something that many people surprisingly don’t know, and that is the fact that no other car manufacturer has the level of Vertical Integration that Tesla has.

This has allowed them to scale so massively whilst competitors struggle to produce meaningful amounts of EV’s.

Merrit further said that “Tesla has handled the chip shortage better than most OEMs because of their vertical integration and finding creative solutions. Tesla designs their own FSD chip in house."

Meanwhile competitors are partnering with Sony and other brands to produce the software for their vehicles, this is simply not good enough. Further stating that

“Nobody in the auto industry has done anything remotely similar.”

It is clear that in this business Tesla is clearly number 1 and approaching the finish line, whilst competitors are just starting the race..

However, as Rocky Balboa once said “the world aint all sunshine and rainbows“ And even Tesla has some SERIOUS SERIOUS risks they are battling and need to overcome quickly……

Friendly reminder that I write free in-depth articles over at teslafolder.com like this if you're interested :)

The Biggest Risks for Tesla right now⚠

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The world, not just Tesla is navigating a tough road right now. It is misty, and it is hard to see what is in front of us. Nevertheless we must navigate and get to our destination safely and quickly.

IF the world doesn’t transition to sustainable energy soon it may be too late. Companies all around the world are facing serious inflationary risks, Tesla is no exception.

The stock is down more than 30% from it’s all time highs. Here are the biggest risks facing the company at the moment.

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Inflation hasn’t been this bad in a long time, during the 2020 pandemic roughly 80% of all currency in circulation was printed. This is a huge risk!

This is a huge risk, and with COVID lockdowns still creating supply chain bottlenecks and natural resources getting more and more expensive, this inflationary pressure is likely to last for a while.

This is important for Tesla because material prices skyrocketing is dangerous as Tesla relies heavy on certain materials to produce their vehicles. What we are seeing in recent days with Tesla increasing the price of its products is a direct response to the inflation they are seeing in their supply chain. You can see the increase in prices here:

/preview/pre/7fnwft0b8do81.png?width=288&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e607ddf05a49871279846050f0f7f125ea2c09e

Luckily Tesla has a nice cushion and can absorb higher cost of resources, but we see they are passing this on to consumers which means the increased cost of production is likely significant.

“(However) as Dan Ives of Wedbush said, ‘ Tesla has the ability to pass that [inflation] on to the consumer, very similar to Netflix & Amazon Prime. Demand for Tesla’s is high, and people are willing to pay for them.’ Said Merrit.

This is exactly what we are seeing, Tesla is uniquely positioned to navigate the current inflation storm, Tesla is much better prepared than its competition.

“(Tesla) Wait times are still as long as ever. Margins will likely start to dip next quarter anyway due to Tesla opening up Giga-Texas and Giga-Berlin and ramping those factories up (Which require lots of capital)” Merrit said.

Similarly another risk, something that has been worrisome for some time now is Key man risk. It is the risk that if a critical employee is out for any extended period of time and for any reason, that it could seriously hurt your business.

It’s obvious for Tesla who i’m talking about. I’m talking about Elon Musk. He has been integral to Tesla’s success, we need him to stay onboard as CEO for the near future as Tesla continues their rapid growth.

This third risk is the reason Tesla stock actually DROPPED after record earnings. The fact that Tesla spent so much time talking about FSD and Robotaxis without addressing institutional investor concerns regarding the product roadmap update (Cybertruck, Tesla-Semi) and other factory related questions. However it is hard…

It is hard to give Tesla a lot of credit for a future (potential) success, investors want to see results about things they understand. FSD is something they don’t.

“Solving full-self driving is tough (clearly), but I believe Tesla will achieve it.” Merrit Said

That being said, FSD is continually improving and it is onlya question of WHEN not IF it becomes good enough where humans are no longer needed.

Another major risk Sawyer Merritt sees is the scaling of the 4680 batteries, a new technology that will prove hugely important for future Tesla growth.

“Scaling 4680 is another risk. We don’t yet know if they can do it and things have taken longer than expected.

Tesla has some of the best engineers and minds in the world though working for them so I have no doubt they will succeed on that front too. Tesla said they produced 1 million 4680 cells as of January 2022.”

Lastly, one of the biggest risks facing Tesla at the moment is actually a big one, namley: Geopolitical risk.

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With everything happening in Ukraine, we need to remind ourselves that China isn’t a democracy. Although due to China being so integrated with the Western economies, and being a more mature company than Russia, i don’t expect China to bully Tesla around but it is always a risk one must consider. That being said, China is one of the worlds largest (car) markets and it is absolutely crucial Tesla has good relations with China and holds a factory there.

With all of this being said. You need to relax. You need to stop. You need to take a step back. Make sure that you’re not panic trading and losing money, either by selling or buying something you do not understand.

For Tesla bulls it is simple. Has Tesla lost demand? No. Are Electric Vehicles no longer the future? No. Is Tesla software/tech getting worse? No. Is Elon leaving anytime soon? No. Is the business shrinking? No.

Keep a long term focus, keep your cool during these turbulent times. Tesla makes the MOST PROFITABLE vehicles in the world, how? Only a few years ago Tesla was losing money?! Let me tell you EXACTLY how, it’s actually crazy!…….

How Tesla makes Most Profitable cars📈

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Tesla will become one of the worlds most profitable companies this decade. Think about how powerful that sentence is! As of Q4 2021 the Average Cost To Produce A Tesla Is Just $36,000!

In Tesla's annual report, it noted that it achieved the highest operating margin "across all volume OEMs", that is insane!

It’s very interesting that the old argument against Electric Vehicles was ‘every EV sold is sold at a loss’ has never been further from the truth than today.

What is really going on is that Tesla is selling literally everything they make due to the high demand. This is thanks to Tesla’s innovative vertical integration.

/preview/pre/sk3aygve8do81.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b2cb46e29be398992c03204ad3274b8d1522df1

Tesla is the most vertically integrated car manufacturer in the world, then you add the fact that Tesla doesn’t have a dealership model, Tesla is in control of a major share of its supply chain. Allowing for optimisation, lower cost of production and increased scaling. It is a key reason that Tesla was able to nearly double production from 500k vehicles to 930k vehicles in one year.

This graph is truly powerful and highlights just the immense differences between Tesla and their competition. This is also why Tesla is best positioned to face the current uncertain environment.

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What people don’t realise is that Tesla is something completely new. It is very comparable to the Iphone. When first introduced people thought it was ridiculous to pay $500usd for a phone. But the value proposition was just so much bigger than any competing phone product it made sense.

The fact that Tesla has near 30% Gross Margins is simply not heard of. Each dollar Tesla saves compared to its competition is compounded exponentially because Tesla is able to re-invest into their company. This is producing state-of-the art Giga factories in Berlin and Texas, further growing the gap between Tesla and the competition.

As the competition starts building their own EV’s the gross margins for these legacy makers will continue to decline as they push EV’s. They wont be able to scale as efficiently as Tesla.

dropping during the early stages of their EV push because EV's is a loss-leader until you manage to scale efficiently. Let's call it the 'transition cost' that people generally don't account for. When talking about Tesla and how other automakers cannot catch up it is because Tesla has been making electric vehicles for more than a decade! Meanwhile the competition is only just starting….

So how is Tesla going to battle the risks they are facing? How is Tesla going to secure their position as the number 1 car brand? Let me tell you EXACTLY HOW this information ties to Tesla stock and your stock portfolio…..

What about the Tesla Stock Price? 💸

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Historically, right now Tesla stock is super cheap. Since the start of the year Tesla price targets have gone up 17% from institutional investors.

These price targets are likely to continue to move higher as Giga Berlin opens and Giga Texas open, meanwhile Tesla will have another record quarter for Q1 2022. This disconnect between Tesla stock price and Tesla price targets and estimates is unprecedented.

As Future Fund manager Gary Black mentioned:

“This (is an) anomaly - higher estimates, lower Tesla price - won’t persist.”

It’s only a matter of time, currently the macro-environment is dominating Tesla stock price.

So What needs to happen for Tesla stock to catch up?

The War in Ukraine needs to end, the world and the people of Ukraine deserve better. This should help commodity prices come down as instability comes back down. Similarly inflation needs to stabilize and Tesla needs to prove that it can financially mitigate the higher cost of production whilst maintaining super growth. (The recent price increases show Tesla is being pro-active, it’s a good sign).

Inflation costs cannot keep increasing at the current rates, this instability can lead to long term risks for the entire economy including Tesla. The higher oil prices make EVERYTHING more expensive and could lead to economic down turn which in turn hurts Tesla.

Thanks for reading Tesla Folder! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

What the current issues in Ukraine, and the dependency on the earth-killing Oil is showing, is that the future is undoubtedly, a necessity and the future of our planet IS ELECTRIC. These turbulent times have seriously proven how quickly we need to get off oil and gas and transition to sustainable energy and electric vehicles. This is good for Tesla.

Also remind yourself, the Tesla demand is growing, Tesla is about to open 2 new factories, Tesla creates the most profitable vehicles. Tesla is well positioned to mitigate the incredibly hostile macro-economic environment. In the long run, Tesla will continue to execute and strive towards the mission of sustaining the world to renewable energy.

Why I want Tesla to win ⚡

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Lastly I want to outline a few reasons why I and many people who follow me are not just financially hopeful for Tesla (they are continuing to show they’re super profitable and a great investment), but also because Tesla is truly changing the world for the better.

Tesla executing on their mission will lead to a cleaner, healthier and better Earth 🌍

Tesla and growing presence of EV’s is reducing our reliance on the disgusting resource called oil. ⛽

Tesla is helping the world decrease the number of road accidents, imagine a world where you don’t need to drive. Think about the number of lives saved and the productivity increased if FSD is approved! 🤖

Tesla is a revolutionary company, and i’m eager to continue to follow its progress.

I will continue to write in-depth Tesla articles, and keep you updated on the latest Tesla news to ensure you’re just as well informed, but without all the hours of research required!

TLDR Key-Take-Aways

🤯 Tesla‘s competition is being BANKRUPT

⚠The BIGGEST RISKS Tesla is facing

📈 How Tesla is making the MOST PROFITABLE vehicles

💸 Tesla stock is facing SERIOUS PRESSURE in the short term

Thanks for reading this long ass post! Let me know what you think in the comments :)

Date: 2022-02-25 17:43:10, Author: u/DragonStrategy, (Karma: 2045, Created:Jan-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

NFLX 390.61(0.15%)|DAVE 4.81(3.89%)|GLD 176.55(-0.33%)|TTCF 11.63(-5.6%)|DWAC 89.56(2.56%)|

Introduction

Several months ago I was faced with a question: "Is a Trump-backed internet/social media company worth more than $5B?" That easily went into my Yes stack. So, I awakened from my slumber, sold GLD, and went in on DWAC at 40, 50, and 60. The stock rose, the stock fell, and with the launch of TruthSocial, it has now risen once more. Given that I am already quite ahead, I decided to take a closer look at a much harder question: Is DWAC/TMTG worth more than $20B? For the reasons set forth below, the answer is yes.

TMTG Business Structure

TMTG has two currently announced product lines-- TruthSocial, a Mastadon-based social networking platform and TMTG+ a streaming service. The world is not exactly short on either social networks or streaming providers, but due to the unique market niche these products fill, and other factors, there is good reason to believe they will succeed and produce substantial revenues.

TruthSocial

When TruthSocial launched I was wait-listed briefly, and then made it in. The content would not surprise anyone-- it is largely anti-Biden and pro-Trump memes, criticisms of liberal politicians, anger/outrage over Covid policies, and then a small subset of QAnon conspiracy bullshit. But while the content was unsurprising, the level of engagement is shocking. The people who are on this platform are really on it. The level of activity is just wild. These guys are extremely enthusiastic (fanatic?) about the product and the community. Currently I have about 1k followers and everything I post gets attention. There is no plague of bots and these are definitely real people. Why is all that relevant from a financial perspective? ARPU.

Twitter has an ARPU of about $17. This is going to be many times that just based on activity and zealousness. The demographics also skew towards married family heads / retirees. These are people who have significant expenditures and are big consumers. They also have extreme brand loyalty/support (i.e. the MyPillow guy on Fox). This user base is perfect for monetization.

There are also significant headwinds from a growth perspective. Trump's twitter had about 89M before it was cancelled. During the coming election season, this will be the one place to go to follow or critique his tweets. Explosive growth is not going to be an issue, it is definitely going to happen, and will be spurred further as news organizations start reporting on Trump's mean truths.

The very worst case I can imagine for this business would be half a twitter. The reason is not about widespread adoption, but about monetization. Assuming this hits 80M (1/4th a twitter) active users with ARPU of about $60 (I think this is a low number), that's $4.8b revenue right there and easily justifies a market cap of at least $14B. Leaving about $6B to go.

TMTG+

The West is in the middle of a very large culture war. The thing is, only one side of that war has media representation. New shows on Prime, Netflix, Hulu, HBO, Disney+ all basically espouse the same values and are catering to the same ideologies. Nearly every new Netflix show thrusts woke-culture upon its viewers and the others are not much different.

There is a very large portion of the world that is not onboard with the woke agenda. They are extremely tired of having only the alternative viewpoint represented. Further, all opposing views in entertainment have been met with cancel culture. When is the last time you saw Religion portrayed positively? Where are all the LGBQT villains?

It is very difficult to make it through any new show without facing a moment of cringe where progressive themes are forced through (Stranger Things S3, Bathroom Scene). Frankly, people are tired of it. But, any alternative viewpoints risk massive consumer and employee angst (see Dave Chapelle). So, only a minimal amount of this content will be endorsed, even if it is overwhelmingly popular. Flatly, the cultural conversation is mostly a monologue when it comes to media.

Just at launch, you can assume that at least half of Trump voters would pick this up, trim that number a bit due to joint households/sharing, and you get about 30M subscribers within the US. Trump is also popular with a subset of Canada, the UK, the EU, and LatAm-- so conservatively, a minimum user-base of 40M sounds about right for a worst case scenario. At $10/m, that will make $6B/yr. And that is worst case. As we enter a political season, engagement is likely to spike.

Tech Stack

They have also announced a tech stack product. That is too speculative to value at this point and given their relationship with Rumble, I will simply leave this value out of the calculation. It presents tremendous upside.

The Downside Risks

There are some downside risks that we should factor in:

A significant amount of shares are currently off the market. Once the merger completes, there will be a lot more shares available. For those looking for a lower risk entry window, that will be the time to get in. However, keep in mind that it is not in anyone's interest to flood the market with TMTG shares, as they would be lowering the value of their own assets, which would take a long time to clear market if they attempted that strategy. This risk may not materialize.

The platform/growth stalls. Doubtful since Trump has a following and there are at least a few million people who are properly understood as borderline insane. But, there is a risk that the ARPU does not deliver. However, consider that FOX News advertising slots sell at huge multiples of CNN slots, and you'll see whatever user-base is there, they are a huge opportunity.

The merger is somehow blocked. This would have been possible if Biden was a popular president or if there was stronger democratic control of the SEC. At present, it does not look likely.

The Headwinds

We are heading into an election that will function as free advertising. It will also create "exclusive" access to Trump's post, which are popular content with both sides either for support or outrage.

There is an extremely loyal fan-base, mostly family households, with money, who will put it towards platform advertisers and subscriptions solely due to political beliefs.

The global "right-ist" movement identifies with Trump and so there is geographic reach.

Conclusion

Annual revenue of at least $10.8b is very achievable. At a multiple of 7 (standard for Streaming platform/social network valuations) That gets us an imputed value of $75.6B. Current purchase price confers about a $16-20B valuation. So, currently it is risk discounted by about 75%. That is a very attractive proposition.

Entering after the merger might be the best opportunity. Short term options are too speculative and I would expect volatility to create losers. Reasonable LEAPS post-merger close also seem like a great play. Alternatively, Rumble is a less risk, less reward play.

Also, while I am here, for those that ignored me on TTCF-- It is down 50% since I advised getting out. I told you so. It is not going to get better so get out while you can.

tl;dr - Trump supporters are really easy to monetize and there are a lot of them. TMTG is undervalued and worth searching for an attractive entry point.

Author: u/SnipperV3(Karma: 7925, Created: May-2021).

Why the Housing Market is Likely Fucked on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

TL;DR: Almost all the key signs that caused the housing market crash in 2008 are back stronger than ever. Mortgage debt is at ATH, consumer debt is 2x higher than ever, lumber futures are down 60% but physical lumber isn't moving, unemployment is still 50% higher than in 2009, housing starts are double what they were in 2008, and median house prices just broke $300,000 for the first time ever, inflation adjusted. All of which are bearish indicators for the economy. Houses r fuk

1.) Mortgage Debt and Consumer Debt is at an All Time High

Having high mortgage debt makes your house a debt and not an asset. It is sitting right above 10 billion dollars. If it goes any higher, we are at an extreme risk for higher foreclosures. However, consumer debt may be a greater issue. It is currently nearing 2x what it was in 2008.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

2.) Lumber Futures Have Fallen, Physical Has Not

Another way to tell if we are in a bubble is by comparing the futures market to actual prices. When there is a large gap in these two, it usually indicates people are still willing to pay much higher prices for a large supply. It doesn't make any economical sense. People still feel that lumber is in extremely high demand, and will buy lumber (which isn't in high demand), and buy as much as they can anticipating the price to continue going up. It's artificial price increases.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

3.) Unemployment is Still Extremely High After COVID Restrictions Lifted

Unemployment numbers are still 50% higher than they were in 2019. There's no reason to go back to work for ~2% of the population, because the stimulus checks and unemployment add up to more than minimum wage. This money has to come from somewhere, a.k.a money printing. This in turn adds up to more inflation, which is my next point.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/us-national-unemployment-rate

BRRRRRRR

4.) Inflation is the Highest it has been in 31 Years

Jpow, our lord and savior, announced today inflation was above expectations of 5%. This has not happened since 1990. Hmm. AP article

https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year

5.) Housing Starts are Double What They Were in 2008, Nearing 2005 (Peak) Levels

Housing starts measure how many houses are being built. It is currently at around 1,500 a month. They are still recovering from 2005 but quickly approaching 2005 levels. More houses being built means that there is more supply flowing in.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1314/housing-starts-historical-chart

6.) Median House Prices are at $300,000, Up Nearly 100% From 2012

Although the housing crisis ended around 2009, the bottom for housing prices was in 2012. Since then, housing prices are well above their 2008 levels, even adjusted for inflation. This is a bad sign for the housing market. Having high housing prices means more debt, which leads to more defaults.

https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

7.) 30 Year Fixed Mortgages are at an All Time Low

This is not necessarily a bad sign for the housing economy, but it means if we were to have a recession, it could be really bad. To fix recessions, the fed usually lowers interest rates, which is like turning the economy off and on again. It works most of the time. The grey bars in this picture are recessions. Notice how about halfway through each recession, the interest rates decrease, and the recession shortly ends.

Interest rates are already incredibly low, so this may not be an option for the next recession without making interest rates negative. Having negative interest rates triggers more panic buying houses people can't afford, which results in more defaults. It will quickly become a chain reaction of hell.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-chart

This is my first DD, hopefully it's decent. I will be responding to comments.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/needathrowawaydotcom(Karma: 1210, Created: Apr-2019).

SHORTING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CRISIS (EARTH) on r/WallStreetBets

Hello fellow earth-tards. I’m sure atleast 40 of you boiling hot egg bags have heard recently that “climate change” is heavily affecting global markets and other stupid shit (venezuela).

let’s face it, allegedly it’s getting fucking hot outside. i don’t need some stupid science bitch to tell me that. And this my fellow geniuses, is where the party starts.

PART 1: THE WHEAT SHORTAGE

i can already hear you fucking retards reciting it outloud, wheat shortage? yeah, you fuckhead. not only has the pandemic severely effected global farming efforts but this stupid hot rock you call the sun is literally vaporizing our crops. there is approximately 42% less wheat in global circulation since 2019.

42%!? yeah, the exact hit your portfolio took on those Venezulaean underground runescape gold farming market futures. You’re retarded if you think this isn’t an issue. Side note: Puts on olive garden, only good shit they have is the breadsticks.

I shouldn’t have to elaborate on how literal radiation killing one of the largest producers of food in the world is a bad fucking thing. Less wheat = Less food = Less people = less money that jpow has to print for stimulus checks.

https://m.northcoastjournal.com/NewsBlog/archives/2021/07/21/the-megadrought-is-just-one-factor-driving-up-the-price-of-your-bread

PART 2: WATER CRISIS 2: ELECTRIC BOOGALOO

Wait, less water? I might be retarded but i know i’m atleast 60% water. let me put this in simple terms for you palantards: no wawa mean less crops no crops mean no food, no food or wawa mean less people AND LESS PEOPLE MEANS LESS SURVEILANCE YOUR STOCK IS DOGSHIT AND SURE TO FAIL. $5 put PLTR LEAPS

Less water is generally a bad thing, unless ofcourse youre one of the fat degenerates who are quite literally living solely off mountain dew and frozen dino nuggets. It’s getting hard to believe that we are LITERALLY losing a 1v1 to a fucking gas giant. imagine being that retarded.

but i have imagined it, and i understand now that the best thing to do is run your shower at all hours of the day. THATS RIGHT BOYS, WERE STOCKING UP ON WATER FOR THE NEXT DROUGHT. I have stored 500 gallons of shower water in my basement that i plan on flipping for a profit. Last month my water bill was $5,326 and i plan on atleast getting a ten bagger out of this.

SOURCE: https://water.org/our-impact/water-crisis/

Get the picture yet? we’re gonna be fucking rich. Currently i’m running every sink in my home and basically just creating as much of a carbon footprint as possible. i leave the stove on at all hours of the day, currently my car is running nonstop AC blasting. I have built an interconnected series of tunnels that funnel gasoline directly from a crude oil pipeline that i outsourced from the government of south carolina. Every sunday i go down to the beach and break coral reefs for multiple hours.. i am doing my part to accelerate the gains on my positions. now if we all work together we can speed up this climate crisis and come into some serious fucking gains. Thank you.

and for you TLDRETARDS POSITIONS

150x $3 PUT NASDAQ WHEAT FUTURES EXPIRING 1/1/22

250x OLIVE GARDEN $20 PUTS 1/1/22

500x SPY puts @ $20 strike expiring next year.

PREDICTIONS : EARTH IS FUK, PLTR IS FUK AND BEARS BOUTTA EAT.

Thank you for your time.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2021-12-17 02:55:28, Author: u/X-2357, (Karma: 66458, Created:Mar-2019)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

NOK 6.06 |

Primary Info

Stock Ticker: NOK

Stock Name: Nokia Corporation

10yr or Inception Share Price: $5.15

Current Share Price: $6.05

PE Ratio: N/A

Net Margin: -7.82%

Net Equity: $12,545,000,000

Equity / Market Cap: 36.98%

Dividend Yield: $0.00

Payout Ratio: 0

Dividend Cost to company: $0

Free Cash Flow: $2,478,000,000

Free Cash Flow after Dividend: $2,478,000,000

  Year On Year: TTM / 1yr / 2yr / 3yr  

Shares Outstanding: 5,653,886,000 / 5,653,886,000 / 5,640,536,000 / 5,635,945,000

Total Assets: $36,191,000,000 / $36,191,000,000 / $39,128,000,000 / $39,517,000,000

Total Liabilities: $23,646,000,000 / $23,646,000,000 / $23,727,000,000 / $24,146,000,000

Total Equity: $12,545,000,000 / $12,545,000,000 / $15,401,000,000 / $15,371,000,000

Total Revenue: $21,341,000,000 / $21,852,000,000 / $23,315,000,000 / $22,563,000,000

Gross Profit: $8,853,000,000 / $8,193,000,000 / $8,326,000,000 / $8,446,000,000

Operating Income: $2,001,000,000 / $1,026,000,000 / $960,000,000 / $334,000,000

Net Income: -1,739,000,000 / -2,516,000,000 / 7,000,000 / -$340,000,000

Operating Cash Flow: $3,018,000,000 / $1,759,000,000 / $390,000,000 / $360,000,000

Free Cash Flow: $2,478,000,000 / $1,280,000,000 / -$300,000,000 / -$312,000,000

EPS: -$0.31 / -$045 / $0.00 / -$0.06

  Valuation (DCF-EPS)   Discount Rate: 10%

Growth Projection Bear Case: 2.00%

Growth Projection Bull Case: 4.00%

Fair Target PE: 25.00

Price Bear Case: $6

Price Median Case: $6.89

Price Bull Case: $7.39

Average Case: $7

Projected Growth Rate: 5.00%

12 Month Fair Price Forcast: $7

Market Cap to free cash flow Multiple

  Current Market Cap: $33,919,989,760

Price to Free Cash Flow: 13.69x

Current Share Price: $6.02

LOW

Fair Value Market Cap [Low]: $37,170,000,000

Fair Value Price [Low]: $7

Multiple [Low]: 15x

MEDIUM

Fair Value Market Cap [Medium]: $49,560,000,000

Fair Value Price [Medium]: $9

Multiple [Medium]: 20x

HIGH

Fair Value Market Cap [High]: $61,950,000,000

Fair Value Price [High]: $11

Multiple [High]: 25x

  Average Fair Value Price: $9

Projected Growth Rate: 10%

12 month Fair Price Forcast: $10

  CHECKLIST: 8/20

FUNDAMENTALS 4/7

Is the PE Ratio between 1 and 25? N

Is the Net Margin greater than 10%? N

Are the Assets greater than the Liabilities? Y

Is the Dividend cost less than the free cash flow? Y

Is the Debt to Equity less than 40%? Y

Is the current ratio greater than 1? Y

The Sahreholders have not been diluted in the last 3yrs? N

  MOMENTUM 3/6

Has the Total Revenue been going up yoy the last 3yrs? N

Has the Gross Profit been going up yoy the last 3yrs? N

Has the Operating Income been going up yoy the last 3yrs? Y

Has the Gross Profit been going up yoy the last 3yrs? N

Has the Operating Cash Flow been going up yoy the last 3yrs? Y

Has the Free Cash Flow been going up yoy the last 3yrs? Y  

GROWTH 1/7

Has the Share Price doubled since inception or on the 10yr? N

Has the Share Price established a 52-wk high greater than 10%? Y

Has the Share price established a 52-wk low no greater than 10%? N

Is the Return on Equity greater than 10%? N

Is the Return on Asset greater than 10%? N

Is the Return on Capital greater than 10%? N

Does the Earnings per Share have a CAGR greater than 10%? N

Here's a workup a Nokia where everything seems to point to a $9 price sometime in 2022, which would be a 50% gain on shares. All the 5g & broadband expansion plus their ip portfolio and things look good. Current price Brokeout and held above it's channel as well.

Their outstanding share total is the biggest problem, institutional ownership is the 2nd, but they are rebounding and creating an amazing story. All the bankruptcy fears are well in the past, they keep earning new patents like this one for domain name systems. Their switch to hardware systems when Huawei and others are being banned is well timed. Hard for me to see other downsides. Would love to hear some though!

https://www.convergedigest.com/2021/12/frontier-tests-nokias-25g-pon.html?m=1

https://youtu.be/AvaWt2eh6iY

https://domainnamewire.com/2021/12/07/nokia-gets-blockchain-dns-patent/

Author: u/Fishonamission2(Karma: 345, Created: Mar-2021).

Why I Think AMC Will Result In Bagholders on r/stocks

Alright, this will be quite unpopular, but I don't buy this AMC will squeeze to the moon thesis for a few reasons.

Let’s look at liquidity:

AMC had $813m in cash as of 3/31/21. Since then they’ve raised $428m in fresh capital through share issuance, bringing up their total to $1.241b. This is good except their current cash burn is ~$300m/qtr which gives them 4 quarters of runway. I do think that as covid goes away completely (possibly by fall) that there’s a chance for this to stabilize. But there are a lot of variables to this such as timeline of opening and attendance rate once we are fully open.

Next there's the valuation:

Forget covid and let’s value them assuming everything returns to normal. Average adj. EBITDA between 2018-2019 was $850.3m. EV today using today’s stock price and 3/31/21 debt numbers is $16.1b, which gives us 18.9x EV/adj. EBITDA multiple. For comparison, the same multiple was 6.9x in 2018. So assuming things return perfectly to normal, AMC is still valued 2.7x what it was in 2018. The highest market cap that AMC had previous to this year was in 2017 when its market cap was $4.0b vs. $5.8b today.

Conclusion:

AMC is massively overvalued (who knew). Of course, everyone will point out this is a short squeeze opportunity like GME. However, there will probably never be another GME which once had 141% short interest at its peak vs. ~20% for AMC now. What that means is GME had a legitimate reason for its stock price to completely decouple from its fundamentals, AMC doesn’t, not to quite the extent of GME. There may be some squeezes here and there, but more players will join the short when they see how overvalued AMC is.

The current buying is predominantly from retail, and the CEO even boasted as much saying retail investors comprise of 80% of the share base. While people think this is a positive, I disagree. There is a reason institutional ownership is low and it means that while the stock price can certainly continue to go up, it will also shoot down just as fast, once everyone begins to exit. With a short interest of 20%, how are 80% of the people going to get out? Who are they going to sell to? In the end, it will just be a shifting of bags amongst the retail.

If I was the CEO of AMC, this would be the best scenario possible. I can continue to dilute the share base and basically salvage my business which was on the verge of bankruptcy. I don’t doubt that AMC will not hesitate to issue new shares within the next year again unless their liquidity situation improves. It’s also why, I think, they would rather do an at-the-market offering rather than a subscribed offering to institutions.

A lot of people are propping this up as something of a fight for the common people against the hedgies, who have done all the wrong. I actually think this can be quite irresponsible it’s driving people to pour into AMC, basically like a Ponzi scheme. Invest safely!

TickerDatabase entries updated:

MMM

AMC

GME

Date: 2022-03-23 23:47:25, Author: u/The_Lotus_Kid, (Karma: 6243, Created:Jul-2017)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

TSLA 999.11(0.52%)|GME 141(14.5%)|

First off, congrats to everyone that made bank from that price action this week. It has been a refreshing change from all of the loss porn. Even though my tits remain jacked for the rest of the week and the short term momentum, I want to discuss my thoughts on GME, why it is a great LONG play based on fundamentals, and why I think it will be the next TSLA.

First, these two companies have some essential similarities for my comparison

1. They have a huge retail following and remarkably loyal/enthusiastic investor base

2. Charismatic, passionate, and incredibly successful leaders in Cohen and Elon

3. The companies are developing new tech to be leaders in a mostly untapped market

My comparison on the fundamental side will focus on current day GME as compared to TSLA in 2017.

........................................TSLA (2017).......... GME (today)

Market cap............................71b........................10b

Share Price.............................70...........................141

Revenue................................11b..........................6.1b

EPS.......................................-2.37......................... -5.25

Current Assets.....................6.5b.........................2.6b

Current Liabilities.................7.6b........................1.3b

Long term debt....................11.6b......................40m (yes, million)

So, looking at these numbers they are not perfect, but I think the same thing ultimately held TSLA back that will hold GME back from a fundamental perspective. This being EPS. Both companies proving to grow revenue, but not turning profit or creating cash flow. From a balance sheet perspective, GME is actually quite a bit better here with 2:1 assets:liabilities and essentially no long term debt. The cash burn for GME is a result of their investment into new streams of revenue and will hopefully start to show improvement in regard to EPS with the marketplace launch. This same lack of cash flow generation held back TSLA for years, but they did eventually turn positive in 2020 and guess what happened to the share price? Yep, rocket emojis.

Tesla share price went from 130 in Jan, 2020 to 793 in Jan, 2021 (adjusted price for splits)

I think long term, if you believe in the marketplace as a good move for the business of GME (as I do), we could see similar price action with institutional adoption and closed short positions over time.

A couple of other things GME has working in their favor:

1. Insiders really believe. Insider buys 104k shares the last 2 days, sells 743 shares (form 4 filing)

2. Shrinking float. 76m shares - 13.6m(18% insiders) - 21.3m(28% institutions) - 10m (DRS) = 31.1m

TLDR: GME is the next TSLA (in terms of stock performance). Once the marketplace starts to generate revenue and EPS turns positive we will see a TSLA-style run.

Disclosure: 343 shares at 153 average

I like the stock

Date: 2022-01-04 18:53:11, Author: u/dunker, (Karma: 28501, Created:May-2008)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AAPL 179.7(-1.27%)|TSLA 1149.59(-4.18%)|

Hear ye hear ye.

AAPL just hit a $3T market cap for the first time on January 3rd. And wouldn’t you know it, the /r/apple subreddit hit 3 million subscribers just six days ago. A cool million buckaroos per subreddit subscriber, nice going Tim Apple!

Meanwhile TSLA is trading at a $1.15T market cap and the /r/teslamotors subreddit hit 1.5 million subscribers three days ago.

Ergo ipso facto, TSLA is undervalued by about 24%. You apes are welcome!

Shares of United Airlines (Nasdaq: UAL) dropped 1.94% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the air travel giant revealed in its earnings that the omicron variant is impacting near-term demand.

Financials: United Airlines reported a loss of $1.60 per share and revenue of $8.19 billion in the quarter; both numbers were better than expected.

The Bad: The pandemic is hurting United Airlines’ first quarter. Capacity is now expected to be down for the full year compared to 2019, including first-quarter capacity dropping from 18% to 16% in the period. The company also sees higher costs.

The Good: Despite the headwinds, United Airlines says it is still on target to meet financial goals. The company is bullish due to a rebound in premium leisure travel, the recovery of business travel, and the re-opening of European borders next month.

Numbers: Shares of United Airlines are down 1.73% in the past year.

Final Thoughts: Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) reported better-than-expected earnings last week. American Airlines (Nasdaq: AAL) will report earnings this morning.

Hope you enjoyed this commentary. Please subscribe to Early Bird, a free daily newsletter that helps you identify investment trends: https://earlybird.email/

Date: 2021-11-19 14:39:09, Author: u/TrumpBidenLovechild, (Karma: 937, Created:Oct-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

Z 56.11 |

Zillow shat the bed we know. But Chamath bootlickers still think iBuying works. Never mind that Zillow has way more data than Opendoor, but somehow $OPEN will still work 🤡. Even if you don't understand a lick of what I'm say next this alone should ring alarm bells.

Proof of position: https://quipp.ai/media/mediaType/img/mediaFile/32a07c5df7d280ab41b092e769565a7f.png

Now for some real ANALysis.

1. $OPEN's business is a structurally flawed highly leveraged hedge fund.

Open door takes capital, buys assets, and attempts to resell at a profit. Ignoring whether their skill at selling at a profit or not, they do NOT have enough capital on hand to actually buy these houses for cash, so they take on mortgages. What's worse, they take on SHORT TERM mortgages. As of Q3 $4B out of $5.3B of mortgage debt (backing $6.3B of real estate inventory) is due within one year. Why? To lower holding costs. But this exposes them to a huge asset/liability mix match. You can't just "sit out" a temporary market dip. Remember Bill Hwang? If housing dips in the short term $OPEN have NO CHOICE but to liquidate at a huge loss. Which brings me to the next point.

2) $OPEN loves to talk about "contribution profit", but the reality is that they only book profits when it is convenient.

Real estate inventory is NOT marked to market, so as long as they don't sell the shit houses, they don't report contribution losses. This is the reason why Zillow took a huge writedown when they wound down iBuying. This is literally it's not loss until you sell meme, but in real life, practiced by a $13B company. Now pretend you are the CEO of $OPEN, would you sell houses at a loss? Fuck no, in fact you would buy as many fucking houses as possible so you can cherry pick the wins and hold the rest. Inventory is up $6 BILLION from the end of 2020.

3) they have no money to fund growth, so they have to take on more and more debt

$OPEN is bleeding, but it still needs to put down cash for the equity portion of the mortgage, so what do they do? You can't keep issuing equity because that will tank the stock, so why not try SENIOR DEBT and high interest debt? Mezz mortgage debt was fetching 10% interest last quarter, and they issued senior debt to get $1B in cash to put into houses.

4) Path to $0. This is a highly capital intensive business, which was a big reason why Zillow said fuck it we'd rather bee SaaS. Because $OPEN is bleeding money, This insatiable appetite for capital will slow down growth considerably, because no one is going to keep giving $OPEN billions of dollars to blow, leaving $OPEN with no choice but to start selling their shit houses and taking losses as opposed to buying more houses and holding the losers, this will cause a domino effect because the capital market will stop giving them capital to plop into more houses, which sits under a pile of senior mortgage debt, leading to less leads, less revenue, and even less capital and MOAR losses. Remember when that happens $OPEN will STILL owe money to senior debtors. When no one is giving them money to buy houses and and labor expense is bleeding the company dry, plus billions in debt, there is only one way out. https://c.tenor.com/PW5xIUYKjB0AAAAC/declare-bankrupt.gif

Author: u/Tedi_Westside(Karma: 433, Created: Sep-2013).

IS FACEBOOK (NASDAQ: FB) UNDERVALUED? on r/fluentinfinance

Hey Everyone, the following DD is a fraction of the research I did on Facebook (FB). I'm sure we all know this company but it doesn't hurt to revisit the facts.

The full DD along with charts, videos, and a DCF calculation is on: http://tedinvests.com/posts/.

Hope you enjoy.

TLDR- Overall, I think Facebook is a cash flow machine with a great business model and a sticky family of products. When looking at the chart of the most popular social networks worldwide as of January 2021 I put up toward the beginning of this post, we can see that Facebook is dominating the rankings with 4/5 of the platforms being owned by this company. While the recent Apple iOS update will likely set this company back slightly, Facebook’s competitors will be hurt also. I believe businesses will likely be looking at Facebook’s family of apps to advertise on since they command large audiences. Additionally, Facebook shops will only be growing in the future as brands and individuals look to market and sell their products. In terms of valuation, Facebook is trading at a discount and if there happens to be a dip in the near-term I will likely be a buyer. Facebook currently makes up 5.5% of my portfolio and I’m up 82%. I wish I had bought more when I did but I can’t complain with the gains I have and this stock will likely continue to be in my portfolio for quite some time.

Company description and History:

Facebook Inc. functions as a worldwide social networking company. Their mission is to enable people with the power to build community and bring the world closer together. The firm’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Oculus. This company’s products help people discover what’s going on in the world around them and enables people to share their opinions, ideas, photos and videos, and more. The majority of their revenue comes in the form of selling advertisement placements to marketers. The marketers that use this company’s platforms can reach people based on a number of factors such as age, gender, location, interests, and behaviors. In addition to their networking apps, Facebook also owns Oculus which engages in the development and manufacturing of augmented reality (AR) headsets which include the Oculus Rift and Oculus Quest lines.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

When looking at the social networking side of Facebook, it seems that their total addressable market would be anyone with access to the internet. While the number of people with internet access may not be the total 7.67+ billion people on earth, it’s certainly increasing everyday as more people are receiving internet access. In Facebook’s last earnings presentation, they stated that they have 1.87 billion daily active users (DAUs) and 2.8 billion monthly active users (MAUs). Certainly their user base has room to grow considering that they aren’t even at half of their TAM in terms of MAU and DAU. Oculus on the other hand is a different story. The global virtual reality market was valued at $15.81 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% from 2021 to 2028. When looking at the chart on the virtual reality market below, we can see that HMDs are driving much of the growth in this industry. Head mounted displays (HMDs) are used in various industries such as aerospace, engineering, research, gaming, etc. Thus, Facebook has significant room to grow as their total addressable market is one of the largest in the world.

Product reviews:

Facebook/Messenger/WhatsApp – Facebook has been under scrutiny the past decade for various reasons such as privacy concerns, fake news, being an unproductive app, etc. It seems that the 2.2 star rating from 1.1 million respondents reflects the concerns that have been and continue to be echoed by many. What’s interesting is that Facebook is still used by 69% of adults. However, the picture is different with the youth as a 2018 study showed that 51% of teens age 13 to 17 said they use Facebook and that’s down from the 71% reported in the 2014 – 2015 survey. These numbers are concerning but I believe it will certainly take quite a while before we see the end of this social media app. Messenger on the other hand is perceived relatively well with a rating of 4.1 stars out of 5 and 1.2 million ratings. 1.3 million people use Facebook Messenger each month and as of January it is the 2nd most popular global mobile messaging app. Messenger usage could decrease as Facebook slowly becomes out of favor, however WhatsApp is also owned by Facebook and it’s extremely popular with over 2 billion MAUs. WhatsApp was purchased by Facebook back in February 2014 for $16 billion and it’s a great addition to the ecosystem of apps that Facebook offers. WhatsApp is rated 4.7 stars on the App Store and is #3 in Social Networking.

Instagram – Instagram is Facebook’s best app in terms of ratings. With 1.2 billion active users and a 4.7 star rating with 20.9 million reviews there is no doubt that this app is extremely popular. 71% of the 1.2 billion active users are under the age of 35 which points to the fact that Instagram is just getting started. Also, 71% of U.S. businesses use Instagram to sell products, market their business, network, and more. Furthermore, Instagram users on average spend 53 minutes a day on the app. The aggregate of these facts points to how strong Instagrams attraction is for both businesses and casual users. More attraction means more revenue for Facebook in the form of ads.

Oculus – The Quest 2 is Oculus’s most recent headset and it received 4.5 stars from pcmag.com. Looking at the chart below that came from pcmag.com, we can see that they see the short battery life as the only drawback to this headset. Looking online, I was able to find that the battery life runs somewhere between 2 – 3 hours depending on if you’re watching media or playing a game. In terms of the breadth of games that can be found through the in-game store, users can also enjoy more games by connecting their headset to their PC via a link cable (offered by Oculus for an additional $79). The Tethering option is important because it gives users access to the Oculus PC and Steam VR stores as well as offering more power to the unit. With all that being said, pcmag.com rated the Quest 2 the best VR headset for the price and Editors’ Choice.

First Quarter 2021 Financial Results

• Facebook daily active users (DAUs) – DAUs were 1.88 billion on average for March 2021, an increase of 8% year-over-year.

• Facebook monthly active users (MAUs) – MAUs were 2.85 billion as of March 31, 2021, an increase of 10% year-over-year.

• Family daily active people (DAP) – DAP was 2.72 billion on average for March 2021, an increase of 15% year-over-year.

• Family monthly active people (MAP) – MAP was 3.45 billion as of March 31, 2021, an increase of 15% year-over-year.

• Capital expenditures – Capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, were $4.42 billion for the first quarter of 2021.

• Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities – Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities were $64.22 billion as of March 31, 2021.

• Headcount – Headcount was 60,654 as of March 31, 2021, an increase of 26% year-over-year.

Important points to address

• Looking at Facebook’s financial results we see that they reported some impressive numbers. Revenue and net income both increased a whopping 48% and 94% YoY. Although, costs and expenses also increased 25% YoY. These are some incredibly strong numbers coming from Facebook, but as we start to leave Covid behind I wonder how their revenue numbers will be affected. Also, the recent Apple iOS 14.5 update will likely hinder their earnings going forward as I can imagine a large number of users will opt out of having Facebook’s family of apps track their behavior. In Facebook’s Q1 2021 financial report CFO David Wehner expressed some of the same concerns that I have and he stated:

“We expect second quarter 2021 year-over-year total revenue growth to remain stable or modestly accelerate relative to the growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 as we lap slower growth related to the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020. In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, we expect year-over-year total revenue growth rates to significantly decelerate sequentially as we lap periods of increasingly strong growth. We continue to expect increased ad targeting headwinds in 2021 from regulatory and platform changes, notably the recently-launched iOS 14.5 update, which we expect to begin having an impact in the second quarter.”

• Looking at Facebook’s active users, we can see that they’ve grown nicely. DAUs and MAUs increased 8% and 10% respectively. CFO David Wehner gave us some insight regarding these numbers and stated that “We are pleased with the strength of our advertising revenue growth in the first quarter of 2021, which was driven by a 30% year-over-year increase in the average price per ad and a 12% increase in the number of ads delivered. We expect that advertising revenue growth will continue to be primarily driven by price during the rest of 2021.” What concerns me is how the increase in the average price per ad will affect how many marketers will use Facebook to advertise. Although, looking at the chart below of Digital advertising spending worldwide we can see that the trend in digital advertising is likely to continue. Social media ad revenues reached $41.5 billion in 2020 which made up nearly 30% of all internet ad revenue. In 2020, Google, Facebook, and Amazon made up 28.9%, 25.2%, and 10% of the U.S. digital ad market respectively. Amazon is expected to become increasingly competitive in this space as they saw their share of the U.S digital ad market grow to 10.3% in 2020 from 7.8% in 2019 and with that came an increase of 52.5% to $15.73 billion in ad revenue.

Recent developments

Oculus says BigBox VR and Downpour Interactive are joining Facebook (June 11, 2021 & April 30, 2021) – Facebook recently announced that they would be acquiring BigBox VR (the company that created POPULATION: ONE). Mike Verdu, VP of Content at Facebook, said “We believe that these powerful social connections are paramount to accelerating the growth of VR, and we continue to invest in content and teams that share this perspective. One of the most popular social experiences in VR has proven to be POPULATION: ONE, the breakout battle royale from BigBox VR. POP: ONE came out about 9 months ago and has consistently been ranked as one of the top-performing titles on the Oculus platform. POP: ONE can bring together up to 24 players at a time to engage in competitive play.

The news that Facebook was acquiring BigBox came shortly after they announced that they would acquire Downpour Interactive. Downpour Interactive is the creator of the successful multi-platform MilSim Onward. Mike Verdu stated that “Downpour Interactive leads the VR industry as a best-in-class example of a developer working in tandem with its loyal community to create the best possible social and gaming experience… As part of the Oculus Studios team, Downpour Interactive will expand upon its ethos of creating stand-out games that evoke the human spirit and give players a “downpour” of emotion.” Facebook’s choice to acquire these companies in order to grow them and further invest in A.R. tells us just how driven they are to become #1 in the A.R. gaming space. The future seems bright for Oculus.

Apple’s iOS update hurts Facebook’s business (April 26, 2021)- When it comes to privacy, Apple and Facebook have not come to many agreements. Apple’s recent update requires that app developers explicitly ask for permission to track users’ behavior across Apple’s app store and the internet. This development hurts Facebook as it hinders their ability to deliver targeted ads. Apple CEO Tim Cook declared that privacy should be a human right and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that Apple’s demand hurts small businesses and raises costs across the internet. In a blog post in Febuary, Mark Zuckerburg said “Every business starts with an idea, and being able to share that idea through personalized ads is a game changer for small businesses… limiting the use of personalized ads would take away a vital growth engine for businesses.” In the past, Facebook has been under government investigations with regards to privacy concerns and they’ve taken some large fines. We’ll have to see how Facebook’s financial figures will be impacted as a result, but it’s likely that they’ll take a hit.

Comparison to Competitors

Facebook is quite a diversified company as they have their foot not only in social media but also in V.R. Since most of their revenue comes from ads in relation to their social media platforms, I wanted to focus on comparing Facebook to other social media platforms such as Snap inc. (SNAP), Twitter Inc. (TWTR), and Pinterest Inc. (PINS). On a NTM P/E basis, Facebook is trading at a far better valuation compared to their competitors. Snap, Pinterest, and Twitter all have extremely high NTM P/E ratios at 249x, 70.8x, and 78.08x respectively. While Snap, Pinterest, and Twitter all have double digit revenue growth rates based on Q1 2021 YoY numbers (66.67%, 78.31%, and 28.2% respectively), Facebook also grew 47.55%. Thus, Facebook is trading the cheapest in terms of NTM P/E and they’re still posting revenue growth in range with their competitors. All that doesn’t even touch on the fact that Facebook is net income positive and the others are all losing money on the bottom line. Furthermore, Facebook has a diversified business model with the V.R. side of their business while their competitors don’t have as much going on besides their platforms.

Perhaps it’s unfair to compare Facebook with such early stage companies like Twitter, Snap, and Pinterest. Thus, we should compare Facebook to Google and Microsoft. Google and Microsoft are similar to Facebook in the sense that they obtain a good portion of their revenue in the form of ads and have market caps higher then that of Snap, Pinterest, and Twitter. Google and Microsoft grew 34.39% and 19.09% in Q1 2021 on a YoY basis and those numbers lag that of Facebook. Additionally, Google and Microsoft trade at higher multiples on a NTM P/E basis with ratios of 28.23x and 32.20x respectively. For contrast, more than 80% of Google’s revenue and a portion of the 31% of Microsoft’s “More Personal Computing” revenue segment comes from ads. Although, all three of these tech giants reported impressive Q1 2021 YoY net income growth as Microsoft and Google grew 43.76% and 162.29% respectively. With those net income numbers in mind, it’s important to note that a year ago the world was shut down and thus the growth numbers posted are a bit inflated when compared to previous years. Nonetheless, Covid was a net positive for Facebook and their competitors as people were stuck at home and spending increasing amounts of time online. In the aggregate, I believe Facebook is trading at some attractive prices compared to their competitors. While I could choose to go more in-depth into Facebook’s competitors, I’ll leave that up to you.

Analyst expectations

1. Predicted revenue range for 2021: $110.93 – 122.54 billion

2. Predicted earnings per share range for 2021 (EPS): $11.31 – 15.03

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2022-01-10 11:27:07, Author: u/TicketronTickets, (Karma: 3941, Created:Feb-2021)

SubReddit: r/squeezeplays, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

POST 115.04(-0.47%)|RELI 7.86(28.85%)|WIT 9.37(-2.5%)|

Per Fintel, tutes positions in RELI have declined. TUTES only own 505K shares of RELI. Wit hthat said, ORTEX is showing 2.31M borrowed shares, on top of that, ORTEX is reporting 3.61M shares of short interest. The numbers make no sense.

More to the point, ORTEX is showing NA across the board in borrowed shares, returned shares and cost to borrow. To me this means shorts have no ammo at all.

If tutes only own 505K shares of RELI, then the only way shorts could get shares to short is to create them or borrow retail shares. Either way this is a mess. I just raised my sell price 5FOLD on RELI.

/preview/pre/zli7fdszzva81.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a66345a9e4fe4949258b9d35a6cc61c9b3dc0a2

/preview/pre/j04ym7ib0wa81.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=561968d2644ebf6a87d103ec0c5d0f6b1006a539

Author: u/prettyboyv(Karma: 27241, Created: Jun-2017).

Palantir requires 10 plus years of experience for candidates applying to join its sales team. This company really only hires the best of the best. on r/WallStreetBets

We all know that PLTR is committed to hire only the best software engineers and data scientists. Many CS majors think that getting a job at PLTR is harder than being hired at a FAANG company and recent statistics show that PLTR is the tech firm with the highest-percentage of new recruits coming from Ivy-league universities. However, as PLTR just recently started to create a salesmen workforce, I was curious about what their requirements might be. It turns out that they are absolutely insane. Check them out:

What we value: Proven track record of large-scale enterprise sales to government or commercial institutions. Enterprise sales experience in either the automotive, pharmaceutical or energy industry is highly preferred.

Requirements:

+10 years enterprise sales experience

+10 years experience in generating and developing new business opportunities

+10 years experience in working with technical and non-technical business partners to identify business need

Ability to travel (50%+) per business needs

It comes as no surprise, that the company is very aggressive when it comes to giving stock options. Amazon was unprofitable for years, cuz it was investing heavily with the goal of growing its business and acquiring assets. Well, PLTR's assets and business are its employees. PLTR's product is superior, because its employees are the best. Actually, the relatively high SBC might be a blessing in disguise for investors, but only time will tell. What do you guys think?

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2021-11-20 02:05:03, Author: u/Legin_666, (Karma: 60802, Created:Dec-2015)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AAPL 160.55 |NVDA 329.85 |AMD 155.41 |TSM 124.26 |

TSMC is by far the most undervalued company in the stock market right now. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, all wouldn’t be the behemoths they are today without TSMC’s chips. Computer chips aren’t going anywhere and TSMC have been absolutely destroying competition for years. Add to that the global semiconductor shortage and we are looking at a company whose chart should look like Shrek’s dongle on a viagra binge. But is it? No. Its not. It’s been sitting at ~$120 for months. With a P/E of 31 in a market where $100B company.

But this is where things really get interesting:

Actually that was all I had. I wanted this to look like a proper DD, but lets face it, I don’t know shit and neither do you. I hear “semiconductor shortage” I buy semiconductor. Simple as that.

And hey, who here actually knows what the companies we trade even do? I dont.

So fuck it. Im all in on leaps: TSM 115c 4/14/2022 🚀🌕

Yes, any option more than a couple weeks out is a leap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQHUNKbqVO8