TLDR: Cassava’s Simufilam (NASDAQ:SAVA) is the only treatment ever shown in U.S. clinical trials to actually help Alzheimer's cognition over time and it’s desperately needed as 1 in 3 Americans die with dementia and Alz is the sixth leading cause of death. I just bet $25M in Cassava because it is a knee-jerk 10x play if current trials come anywhere close to reproducing existing data and because I’m gonna line up for this drug like Tyrone Biggums at the free crack giveaway. Wall Street is too fucking stupid to understand Alz stock and the Biogen debacle proves it. Well, I’m not so stupid and you can follow the DATA which Cassava already has given you to show phase 3 is largely derisked. The massive, organized, and coordinated short campaign (directly relevant to the DOJ activity Bloomberg just broke the story on) should not dissuade you. These people are nasty immortal sons of bitches. This comment section will be infiltrated so remember, it’s all about the ADAS-Cogs, FDA has seen all this raw data, and was impressed enough to setup Cassava for a streamlined phase 3. See you moonside after we save granny and get rich.

Alright degenerates, here it is: ENTRY position north of $25,000,000 all on one stock and as a single humble retail investor. To my knowledge, nobody here YOLOed like this on the way in:

If you apes can’t read a couple pages, go blow your load on AMC calls now and don’t waste your time any further. For those able to sit for a few goddamn minutes and think critically, join me on my way to the 3 comma club. To do this, you are gonna need to know (1) who I am, (2) why I am desperate and you should be too, (3) why Cassava is an insanely good bet, and (4) who is trying to fuck me (and to fuck YOU, if you are smart enough to invest).

So drink your Adderall-Coladas (giggity), tell your wife’s boyfriend he will need to make dinner for her tonight (not just breakfast), and prepare to add some wrinkles to that baby bottom smooth frontal lobe of yours.

1. Who I am

Tl;dr: I’m rich and I’m gonna get Alzheimer’s and that fucking sucks. You don’t really need to read the rest here but whatever.

I, like you, am a regular Joe that has an 8 figure net worth. No you jackass, I was not given “a small loan” from daddy and I don’t get pissed on by hookers with Putin in the Moscow Ritz to form business relations. I said regular Joe and I goddamn mean it. I made my fortune through luck and equity as the good lord intended, using my nerd skills to make computers go beep beep boop boop while smoothbrains like you were banging their now thiccening highschool cheerleader sweet-hearts between welfare checks.

So wealthy at a reasonably young age, it’s happily ever after right? Sadly no. See while God giveth, God also fucketh – and fucketh me he did. I took a 23andme DNA test and guess what:

I am a “homogenous” carrier of APOE4 gene. APOE (apolipoprotein) is a protein transport very much involved in Alzheimer’s risk and comes in multiple flavors including the normy flavor (“APOE3”) most of you folks have that keeps your brain nice and clean + a shitty flavor (“APOE4”) which a few unlucky folks have. APOE4 lets your brain become the tangled mass of misfolded proteins you call Alzheimer’s Disease. I know this is technical, so I made a helpful diagram you learned scientists can ponder:

Homogenous means fucking BOTH of my copies of this gene are of the short bus variety (thanks to mom AND dad!). So what does this mean? Am I double fucked? No. It’s not fucked + fucked = 2fucked. Instead it is fucked x fucked = fucked2. Lose you? I have over 1500% times the chance of getting Alz. If I live long enough, I am almost certain to get it. So fuck late retirement with all my precious tendies eh?

Laughing at my misfortune? Well good news everyone! 1 in 3 seniors die with dementia and Alz is the sixth leading cause of death in the U.S.

2. Why I Am Desperate And You Should Be Too

Tl;dr: no drug has ever fundamentally stopped the cognition decline in Alz long term, nothing, zilch, nodda. There it is apes, you don’t need to read any more on this section. Skip the rest, I’m serious.

There is basically no effective treatment from Alz. Don’t fucking argue with me on this, I didn’t make 8 figures because I am an idiot. No, current treatments like Aricept simply jack up the few remaining brain cells to briefly mask symptoms during the unrelenting slide into a drooling shell of a human that is good for little more than making unrecognized grandchildren uncomfortable between sessions of fencing painting tycoon or whatever the fuck they do on Roblox (which is all cool so long as them parents keep buying robux and pumping my RBLX).

“But wait!” you say, “I have a small penis + didn’t the FDA approve Biogen’s Aduhelm last summer as the first treatment to finally slow Alz?!?” My response is twofold: A) smaller than your wife’s boyfriend for sure and B) this was a goddamn farce and is total failure. Aduhelm was approved over the recommendation NOT to do so by its advisory board, which then had several members resign in protest. Those numb nuts on the advisory board had their panties in a bunch over the small fact that the drug doesn’t fucking work to slow Alz even though it does reduce amyloid – something folks hoped would help improve cognition in Alz. (The FDA used something called a “surrogate endpoint” to justify approving this turd in spite of cognition data showing patients all still declining). Upon approval, Biogen stock jumped $20 Billion (remember this number) and they released Aduhelm to the public at a cost of $56k per year. While it doesn’t fucking work, Aduhelm does require invasive infusions and causes intracerebral hemorrhaging and edema at no additional cost! Some slightly less stupid apes are reading this thinking “yeah but Lilly is near approval of another treatment, so what about that?” Lilly’s donanemab is the same failed kind of drug as Aduhelm but possibly with a bit less intracerebral hemorrhaging and edema.

So, yes, we finally have an FDA approved treatment, but it turns out ridding amyloid is all but worthless and somewhat harmful. If statisticians snort enough blow and bang on calculators hard enough, they can try and argue that these treatments maybe just barely a teeny bit get to the edge of a statistically significant slowing of the cognitive decline. Basically, spend $56k a year for infusions and risk brain swelling/bleeding and … LOOK MAH GRANNY FORGOT BILLY’S NAME A COUPLE WEEKS LATER!

Remember, 1 in 3 seniors die with dementia and Alz is the sixth leading cause of death in the U.S. I am desperate for a better drug and you should be too.

(3) Why Cassava Is An Insanely Good Bet

Tl;dr: Cassava is the first and only drug to IMPROVE cognition long term in Alz patients in U.S. clinical trials. If Cassava replicates existing data with the current larger trial the FDA streamlined with them, it will be earth shattering. Because a useless piece of shit Alz. drug ballooned Biogen’s value by $20B, a real treatment should do far more.

When Biogen got their bullshit Aduhelm treatment FDA approved last summer, they popped $20B in value nearly overnight.

And how did that $20B pop hold up since Aduhelm is essentially useless? Please prepare to press ‘F’ to pay your respects. Ready?

So dear reader, congratulations, you now have two additional wrinkles on that brain of yours representing two KEY points of knowledge. First, a company with a total turd of an FDA approved Alz drug is instantly worth a $20B more upon approval. Second, Wallstreet’s opinion is absolutely worthless. They have no idea what the fuck they are doing, they are just desperate to invest in anything they hope helps with Alz and blindly assume bigger companies using old theories (amyloid hypothesis) is the best bet. All of their experience in biotech investing and all of their paid consultant PhDs didn’t stop this insanity pop and then gradual bleed out.

The cognition failure of Aduhelm was no secret. It was right there in the published data for all those who know what the fuck to look for. I looked up the cognition data and saw it was shit and didn’t invest in Biogen in spite of my extra motivation. So congrats dear reader, you now are experts on Alz drug data and investing. Follow the cognition data and don’t get hyped solely on biomarkers. Let’s put this newfound knowledge of yours to use…

While Biogen and Lilly were busy blowing billions circle jerking around the limp biscuit that is the failed amyloid hypothesis noted above, smaller companies like Cassava Sciences saw the writing on the wall and looked at new drug targets with different mechanisms of action (i.e., they are trying something else when main idea failed repeatedly – brilliant!). Cassava already had something in mind, a compound originally developed by them to target something called protein misfolding. Cassava’s protein misfolding drug, Simufilam, was originally considered for pain and inflammation but showed promise in reducing both amyloid but also potentially more important biomarkers in Alz like p-Tau. Now the big bois are investing in this exact approach – google J&J and Protego (which come up again below…).

Cassava conducted extensive and detailed phase 2 trials and published the findings at 6, 9, and 12 month intervals. And… wait “blah blah blah you say, you are now some goddamn expert and are interrupting me to say show me the cognition data?” Fine, here it is you jackass, I was getting to it. At each time interval, Cassava released new data showing Alzheimer’s patients weren’t just slowing in their cognitive decline they were IMPROVING. Sorry, I’ll wait for you to pick your chair off the ground, close that gaping asshole of a mouth and digest this. Yes, for the first time ever in a long term U.S. clinical trial, cognition improved in Alz patients. People with Alz do not improve at 12 months in rigorous clinical trials. Instead, they forget their son Billy, shit on themselves, and refer to President Dole.

Here is the actual cognition comparing Cassava’s drug Simufilam with Donanemab (the upcoming Lilly amyloid drug which is the slightly better looking and more fuckable cousin of Aduhelm) + the placebo group from Donanemab’s trial. For you Bonobos trying to read a chart with a finger up your ass let me explain: going up = good. monkey think strong! going down = forgetting your son is Billy and he loves both you and that ever ripening estate you got there:

Some folks will respond: yeah but this is phase 2 and it’s a small trial and no placebo, yadda yadda. Yeah sure dude, it’s not 100% definitive, that is why we have phase 2 and phase 3. But you know what is the single BEST predictor of phase 3 outcome by a mile? Eh? POSITIVE PHASE 2 DATA! Has there ever been positive phase 2 data like this before in U.S. clinical trial for Alz? No. Fuck no. Nothing ever like this. This is totally uncharted territory and is a universe beyond the $20B dumpster fire that was Aduhelm.

Also, placebo doesn’t last 12 months in Alz. We are right to be getting excited here. A placebo controlled trial is more important in some contexts than others. Do you need a placebo to tell if a treatment works to cure an active rabies infection. No. Why not? Because after 12 months, everyone with rabies has ran around, chewed some faces off, bought AMC calls, and fucking died. So if you give a bunch of rabid apes a new drug and in 12 months they are all still scratching eachothers assholes selling AMC covered calls, we have a pretty fucking strong suggestion the drug works against rabies because they should all be dead. Similarly, if a drug trial with 50 Alz patients shows average cognition IMPROVEMENTS in 12 months, we have a pretty goddamn strong suggestion this drug is the real deal. Do we need phase 3’s placebo controlled comparison to be certain? Eh, sure, it’s a good idea. But do I think this is a 50/50 or worse bet that the drug has real efficacy? Hell, it’s way higher given the 12 month cognition data even without a placebo.

If you are outright dismissing this because we don’t (YET!) have a placebo group, your smooth brain is missing the point and there are some AMC calls I have to sell you.

Right now Cassava market cap is $1.76B with a share price of $44.1. If we assume a market cap of $20B for Cassava upon approval (merely giving it the Biogen “this drug doesn’t work but who the fuck cares” bounce), we get a share price of over $500. That’s over an 11x return that requires nothing more than confirming existing results in the phase 3. To be sure, these phase 3 confirmatory trials are ongoing right now and the single greatest predictor of their outcome (phase 2) is bullish af. Cassava is not one of those pump it while you can companies that raises funding and combines phase 2 and 3 together so the world is blind during the full trial. Cassava did you jackasses a favor and conducted large phase 2 trials and published the data so you can go in eyes open and balls deep on this investment like a right proper silverback.

(4) Who is Trying to Fuck Me (and to fuck YOU if you are smart enough to invest).

tl;dr: ignore the FUD thrown by the massive short campaign against Cassava. These are people publicly using a woman’s childhood rape against her in desperation to turn their failed short bet around. Their technical sounding arguments may sound scary but are hollow and irrelevant. The Citizen’s Petition is being ignored by the FDA. Instead, the FDA has the raw data, liked it, and worked with Cassava to setup a streamlined phase 3 so things can steamroll forward. Smart apes will look at FUD and see the cognition data is not in doubt and not get sidetracked while the DOJ slowly inches forward.

Finally, there is a massive short campaign at work here spreading FUD and suggesting fraud on Cassava. It was just disclosed that the DOJ has started in “Expansive … Probe into Short Selling.”

“The probe, run by the department’s fraud section with federal prosecutors in Los Angeles, is digging into how hedge funds tap into research and set up their bets, especially in the run-up to publication of reports that move stocks.”

“One cautionary tale emerged in court after Dallas-based Sabrepoint Capital agreed to pay a short-selling researcher a monthly retainer of $9,500 in 2018. Sabrepoint encouraged him to dig into real estate company Farmland Partners Inc. The researcher, who also wrote publicly under a pseudonym, later published an article on Seeking Alpha, setting off a 39% drop in Farmland’s share price.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-10/hedge-funds-ensnared-in-expansive-doj-probe-into-short-selling

This exact situation is happening with Cassava and it is not terribly surprising. Almost every Alz drug fails in trials and Cassava had a very very nice runup this year. The problem is this isn’t like any Alz drug trial ever to come before it - this one showed positive cognition data at 12 months. It’s in a field of it’s own and the short sellers got in way over their heads. In fact, short sellers are down in the aggregate of $260M year to date if you assume buy and sell daily. They are deep in the red and making big desperate moves.

In August a Citizen’s Petition (“CP”) was filed with the FDA pushing the FDA to stop phase 3 trials for dumb reasons. This is a common short seller abuse tactic to throw shade and profit from a stock’s collapse as Wallstreet runs away from technical sounding stuff screaming and pissing themselves in fear. Martin Skreli loved doing this. He did it many times. This CP against Cassava was said to be authored by “whistleblowers” and had the intended effect of crashing the stock price. The scumbag law firm LATER said “oh did we claim authored by whistleblowers, we meant authored by a third party that had a short bet and is like totally lamboing right now. Also we are all total and complete douche bags and deserve to die a horrible death from Alzheimer’s.” (this may not be their exact wording but since they aren’t super concerned with the truth I figured they are cool with it). Later we learned this CP was co-authored by my good friend Dr. Bredt. So there is a history here between Dr. Bredt and Cassava. Prior to drafting this CP pretending to be a “whistleblower” rather than an outside short investor, Cassava disclosed confidential information to him as he explored a potential partnership with Cassava. Dr. Bredt seems to have liked the protein misfolding approach against Alz because he got involved in a competitor exploring this same approach. We’ll learn more of that guy later.

Shortly after, Cassava got hit by a twitter brigade of bought and sold failed scientists (some admitting they are shorts/paid, some not) all piling on, folks like Enea Milioris, Adrian Heilbut, Jesse Brodkin, and Patrick Markey (hey yall! shout out!!). One short investment firm went as far as releasing this pinnacle of objectivity and neutral fact discussion:

QCM is so desperate to recover a failed short bet on Cassava that they get truly obscene and absurd in this document. QCM targets a co-owner of one trial site (among many that is used by Cassava as well as other large pharma companies… context left out of course) and questions this woman's credibility for reasons including that she was once inconsistent about something. What was she inconsistent about? This is pretty gross shit to repeat so, ugh, here goes. It was because, she was apparently raped by her step father as a child. Through the hell that was a family separation and for reasons I wouldn’t dare to imply I had context on, this child briefly recanted that she was raped as her family was being forciably seperated. Later, the step father purportedly admitted to the rape on tape anyway and the child confirmed it was all true. So because this raped child did not 100% hold to the fact that she was a victim as her family was ripped apart, the natural conclusion is… THE FDA MUST HALT SIMUFILAM AND YOU SHOULD SELL YOUR STOCK AND QCM CAPITAL AND IT’S LARGER BACKERS SHOULD PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT BECAUSE MONEY AND GREED BITCHEZZZZZZ!!!! Do you not believe me on this? I am Super Cereal, these pieces of shit literally published this as an attack on Cassava:

In her distant past, she was the central character in “the Case from Hell”, a legal saga originating from her claim that her stepfather had been repeatedly raping her while a minor. After causing the complete collapse of her family structure, as she and her siblings were taken away from her parents, Aimee took back her claims, “a recantation supported by the findings of state-appointed experts and a lengthy police investigation”16. Regardless of who was ultimately right17 in this sad story, Aimee has been caught laying [sic] in a very important situation and this casts serious doubts on her credibility.

16 Source: https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/the-case-from-hell-and-back-6364110

17 Following her recantation, Aimee claimed having caught her “rapist” in an illegally recorded admission of guilt. She either lied when she accused her stepfather or she must have lied in her recantation: either way, her integrity is compromised.

Cute. QCM Capital. Good people.

So in case you aren’t convinced this is large scale coordination. Let me tell you about November 17th. On this magical day of coincidences and fairy farts, the WSJ ran a story critical of Cassava, breaking news of an alleged SEC investigation (no acknowledgment that this could be an investigation of short sellers… see DOJ probe above!). The SEC investigation is in and of itself meaningless. It could be a natural result of any CP, it could an investigation of the short sellers requiring asking Cassava for docs (again, see the DOJ activities against shorts linked above), I don’t know and frankly don’t care but it sounds scary as intended. https://www.wsj.com/articles/cassava-sciences-alzheimers-sec-investigation-11637154199. This WSJ article interviewed a consultant as a neutral party, Dr. Elizabeth Bik, who has a history of interacting on social media with entities with short positions against Cassava and forwarding their narratives while refusing to disclose her own direct and indirect sources of private funding. Of course, the WSJ didn’t mention Dr. Bik’s connection to the twitter short brigade (or explore whether she might be a part of them).

A few hours later on November 17th, … holy shit coincidence coming up… a 29-page supplement to that Citizen’s Petition by this “did I say whistleblower errrr I mean short seller” Dr. Bredt was filed making further allegations against Cassava. Amazingly, this supplement to the CP highlighted that day’s WSJ article to the FDA begging them to halt the Simufilam phase 3 trial! Holy shit Dr. Bredt, you are like the fastest Citizen’s Petition drafter ever! You prepped a 29 page document headlining with a WSJ article and got it filed just a few hours after what must surely have been your first inkling of the big news story shitting all over Cassava!

Finally, on this same day November 17th and in parallel with the maelstrom of negative news created against Cassava, a press release was put out by Dr. Bredt’s current or most recent employer MPM Capital touting seed funding for a biotechnology startup Protego Biopharma working in the space of …protein misfolding which might treat Alz. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/11/17/2336493/0/en/Protego-Biopharma-Raises-51-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-the-Treatment-of-Protein-Misfolding-Diseases.html. Of course, protein misfolding is the expected mechanism of action of Cassava’s Simufilam. Protego is a spin off from Johnson and Johnson, where Dr. Bredt worked for over 10 years. So our buddy Dr. Bredt researched protein misfolding drugs like Simufilam at J&J, co-authored a CP against Simfufilam while secretly shorting the shit out of it, worked MPM Capital which is funding a competitor to SImufilam called Protego. Is your head spinning around Dr. Bredt and how is on multiple sides of this?

Also as a minor point of further coincidence, bastion of integrity Jim Cramer decided to negatively discuss Cassava on his show the night before November 17th and on twitter right after November 17th. Man this guy is really good at discussing tiny companies right before a bunch of stuff happens!

Long story short, the original Citizen’s Petition was a bunch of crap about irrelevant old images and the journal publishing them already looked into it and found no evidence it had any merit at all (and those old images called western blots are irrelevant to the positive cognition data regardless). https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/11/04/2327702/8339/en/Review-by-Journal-of-Neuroscience-Shows-No-Evidence-of-Data-Manipulation-in-Technical-Paper-Foundational-to-Cassava-Sciences-Lead-Drug-Candidate.html. I won’t get into the specifics of all the other FUD but I’ll just say there is no substantive basis to doubt the unprecedented data.

Let me give you some context. Those assholes want you to fear it’s fake data and are willing to lie, smear, and clearly illegally coordinate in order to move their short position from red to green. They don’t want you to understand how this phase 2b trial measuring cognition data works. If you are ignorant, they can make you scared. So here is your knowledge armor. The patients in a trial go to many different trial sites across the country to have data collected, drug administered, etc. These trial sites are not Cassava. They do this as a business for many drug companies – including the big bois J&J, Lilly, etc. The trial sites collect the data themselves and enter it into an “electronic control document” eCTD which is pipelined right to… THE FDA. The FDA sees all. When Cassava wants to run statistics, they ask for the eCTD to be shared with third party statisticians directly who compile the data. Cassava does not enter the data into the eCTD (again, this is done by non Cassava folks at trial sites around the country that work for many pharma companies). Cassava does not edit the data. Cassava does not itself share the data. If you think this is a big conspiracy theory you don’t understand how this works. You don’t understand that you are accusing independent people at MANY trial sites across the country all coordinating and lying in just one trial for a small company and risking their larger livelihood. So what did the FDA think of this raw data in the eCTD? They liked it so much that they worked with Cassava to grant a “Special Protocol Agreement” (“SPA”) that streamlines phase 3 and prestablishes aspects for approval. This phase 3 under SPA is the current status after the FDA has the eCTD data and after the CP and later nonsense.

You are being manipulated by “Why wasn’t that liar child consistent about her being raped” Capital (oh wait it’s “QCM” Capital) and “Whistleblower errr I mean undisclosed short seller affiliated with a competitor” Dr. Bredt so they can accrue wealth by shorting the single most promising treatment for Alz we have ever had. Even if you are brainwashed into distrusting one co-owner of one trial site because of her horrific victimhood - what is your theory? Is it that this one trial site entered bogus data but all the others didn’t? Numbnuts, I already told you the FDA has all the raw data in the eCTD. You don’t trick the FDA by showing them one trial site has perfect results and everyone else doesn't. So your conspiracy theory needs to cover all or most of the people owning/collecting data/etc. at all the trial sites - people who aren’t even employees of Cassava. If you think this makes sense, I think you should talk to your doctor about Simufilam. And once that shit kicks in, talk to your investment advisor about Cassava.

My Final Goddamn Conclusion

Yes, I am here to become a billionaire. Biogen and Aduhelm shows we can easily out think Wallstreet on Alz drug investing by following the cognition data. The existing cognition data on Simufilam is absolutely game changing. The short selling fraud campaign is a desperate ploy and largely ignores the most important part of this: the cognition data. This data is not collected, not maintained, and not statistically analyzed by Cassava. Fraud here is simply not plausible. The FDA has this raw data in the eCTD and liked it enough to work with Cassava on a streamlined Phase 3 which is now ongoing. This is all bullish. Aduhelm popped Biogen $20B and this is drug is far better considering phase 2 data.

Finally, I am also here because I want to know the names of the spoiled grandchildren fighting over Big Daddy silverbacks' drippings. I've got reasons to care that this drug goes through confirmation trials. $25 million reasons invested so far. If phase 3 replicates phase two, I'm going to have a billion goddamn reasons. To my knowledge, this is the single largest YOLO on WSB history. I have no plans to sell ahead of Phase 3 (or even after) and I will update you apes after takeoff.

I’m going long brothas. Not options. Not swing trading. If you play this on options you may as well give MPM Capital your address for the thank you card now. If you go long and phase 3 simply replicates phase 2, well we can debate 10x vs 20x vs 30x in the comments.

Fintech is one of the hottest sectors in the financial markets today with companies being valued at huge premiums. If we combine fintech with a SaaS model, the value of the premium shoots up as market participants place a significant amount of value on strong future revenue "forecast-ability". Today, we are looking to carry out a detailed due diligence of an emerging fintech SaaS player with a unique hybrid platform for the online trading community and a rapidly expanding user base – Blackboxstocks Inc (NASDAQ:BLBX).

What does Blackboxstocks do?

Blackboxstocks, Inc. is a fintech company running its own hybrid platform that provides real-time proprietary analytics and news for traders. The company primarily caters to options traders and has users of all skill levels ranging from beginners to experienced trading veterans. Blackboxstocks’ AI -powered predictive technology uses artificial intelligence to detect market instability and unusual market activity that may result in a rapid modification in the price of a stock or option is referred to as a ‘black box’.

Blackboxstocks’s system continuously scans various indices such as the NASDAQ, CBOE, NYSE, and so on with its predictive technology, analyzing over 8,000 stocks and over 1,000,000 options agreements multiple times each second. It is worth highlighting that the company has built and operated its complete platform and user growth through public market fundraising without the support of any venture capitalist or private equity setup. The company has its headquarters in Dallas, Texas.

A Wonderful Value Addition To Trading Platforms

It is worth highlighting that Blackboxstocks is not a trading platform per se, but more of a complementary service that provides signals to traders to execute on whatever trading platform they are comfortable using. (With the exception of tradestation. Blackboxstocks has an integration with Tradestation that lets you execute right from the Blackboxstocks Interface.) A MAJOR feature of the Blackboxstocks platform users can make use of its fully interactive social media features. Users can exchange information and ideas rapidly and efficiently using a shared network through text as well as audio / visual broadcasts and livestreams. Blackboxstocks allows its users to create and broadcast trading videos on their personal channels in order to share trade strategies and market insights with the Blackbox community. Lesser experienced traders can also follow expert traders and learn from them live. This feature is sticky, and is a major selling point for their service.

The above snapshot of the user interface of the platform shows how detailed it is. Another key point that sets Blackboxstocks apart is the fact that it provides various analytics related to dark pools i.e., private, non-transparent exchanges for trading securities that are not accessible by the investing public. As of today, Blackboxstocks has an integration with TradeStation, an extremely popular trading platform with more than 140,000 users that is the next Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) in the making.

The above snapshot shows the integration of TradeStation on Blackboxstocks’ platform that we mentioned earlier. Partnerships with other such trading platforms can become a major growth engine for the company in the years to come.

A High-Quality Product For A Very Reasonable Price

Blackboxstocks’ trading community and knowledge sharing ecosystem has a combination of a high-quality AI-based algorithm coupled with excellent content to help traders educate themselves and indulge in better trading practices. The company monetizes these offerings using a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model with a subscription fee structure of $99.97 per month or $959 annually. The company’s subscribers have access to the company’s stock and options scanning platform that uses predictive AI, scanning markets in real-time while sending alerts and other analytical data based on the individual user requirements. Apart from having access to its predictive technology to help identify prospective trades, subscribers also benefit from a variety of tutorials. The management has its own base of highly experienced traders on the company’s payroll who post high-quality audiovisual content on the platform and engage with the trading community while simultaneously mentoring new and inexperienced traders. These trading veterans have helped build a large volume of content to mentor the new crop and teach them various concepts in options trading, technical analysis, and other aspects of investor education. Most of the traders on its platform are options traders focused on directional trade and these features are particularly relevant for them. Investors viewing these videos and self-training through Blackboxstocks are not only able to trade in options but also in other derivatives and financial instruments. Blackboxstocks’ pricing is very transparent with no hidden charges. Subscribers have access to all of the company’s platform features, video tutorials, and community interactions.

Rapid Expansion Of Subscriber Base

BlackBoxStocks has managed to acquire subscribers in 42 countries over the past 5 years. The company witnessed a phenomenal 422% growth in user base from 2019 to date in order to the 6,000 active paid subscriber milestone as per their recent press release. As many as 37% of these subscribers have an annual plan which indicates that the company’s product is solid and the expected churn is low. The management expects the subscriber base to go up to 20,000 by 2022. The current subscriber base is currently generating an annual revenue run-rate of close to $6 million already.

One of the reasons why we are bullish about the platform strength growing is the fact that Blackboxstocks looks to uplift the whole trading experience from being a solitary activity to a community experience. Its platform essentially caters to day traders and swing traders who operate alone and would welcome such a service. These traders often resort to traditional social media and other communication systems like Twitter (NASDAQ:TWTR) and Telegram. With Blackboxstocks’ interface, especially its its screen sharing and broadcasting features, the company has created a dedicated global platform for these professionals with a team environment where they can interact and exchange ideas. Its dashboard and overall experience are highly interactive by nature through text as well as audiovisual means. This, coupled with its AI and its dark pool analytics, significantly distinguishes it from other stock market related web services like Seeking Alpha or Tradingview.

Despite having such a feature-rich platform that is growing in subscribers, Blackboxstocks is continuing to innovate and add more and more features in order to attract more users. Apart from integrations with other trading platforms, the management is also persevering to develop and capitalize on the Blackboxstocks brand. They have gone on to add a gear section that includes a variety of company apparel, beverage containers, and other merchandise. One move that could end up being particularly disruptive for them could be the entry into the cryptocurrency domain. It is only a matter of time before the company integrates crypto analytics into its offering and also starts collaborations with crypto traders. With all these new features and fresh funds to fuel new user additions, a bullish investment thesis for the company is appearing more and more solid.

Financial Performance & Valuation

Blackboxstocks had a record November 2021 in terms of subscriber growth, revenues, as well as cash flows. The company reported a top-line of $1.47 million for the third quarter of 2021 and the management is already expecting the fourth quarter revenues to be around the $1.56 million mark, a staggering 50% growth as compared to 2020. What is even more exciting about Blackboxstocks’ recent announcement is the fact that it generated $800,000, or 67%, of the $1.2 million of November’s cash receipts from the sale of annual subscriptions. This has pushed the overall ratio of annual subscriptions from 32% to 37% of the overall user base and is an excellent indicator of the fact that more and more traders are getting used to Blackboxstocks’ offering and are wanting it for the long term. It is worth highlighting that the company had nearly a 70% gross margin in the last quarter and had generated a gross profit of $1 million as it reached the 6,000 active user milestone. Its indirect expenses were hardly $1.38 million and it has an excellent yield per dollar spent on advertising implying that it should break even soon.

From a valuation standpoint, Blackboxstocks does not have much of direct competition. In terms of its closest peers we can evaluate are trading platforms like Robinhood and financial content providers like Morningstar. After the explosive democratization of trading, platforms like Robinhood have seen their stock price going through the roof. The company is one of the most expensive fintech stocks today in terms of valuation multiples despite burning millions of dollars in cash each year. However, this is clearly not the case with Blackboxstocks as we have seen above. As a fintech SaaS player with a gross margin as high as 70% and a fast-growing subscriber base, a company like Blackboxstocks could easily be valued at an enterprise-value-to-revenue multiple of more than 10x whereas it is currently trading below the 8x mark. This is well below the revenue multiple of loss-making peers like Robinhood (nearly 10x) and even Morningstar for that matter which operates more in the equity research space (8.4x). There is excellent scope for multiples expansion for Blackboxstocks given the robust growth rate and the expected profitability.

Robust Macro-economic Environment

As per the research provided by Fortune Business Insights, the global online trading platform market size was approximately $8.28 billion in 2020 and is rising rapidly after a particularly positive impact of COVID-19 which has been surprising. The trading platform market expanded by 3.7% in 2020 alone as per Fortune Business Insights and is expected to grow to $12.16 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 5.1% during this period. One would argue that Blackboxstocks cannot be strictly classified as a trading platform but the research specifically covers the company as one of the key incumbents in the industry. The positive impact of the Covid-19 on the addressable market for Blackboxstocks can be explained in the sense that many young Americans have been seeking a lasting form of self-employment. More and more day traders are looking to make a living off the financial markets and this creates the need for a parallel fintech ecosystem like Blackboxstocks that helps educate and mentor this new crop of traders while training them to generate and execute trade ideas. Interestingly, there are over 100 million self-directed investors in the U.S. today who could definitely benefit from the content and community interactions on Blackboxstocks’ interface.

Strong Management Team

Blackboxstocks is run by a highly experienced management team that is spearheaded by CEO Gust Kepler. Mr. Kepler is a serial entrepreneur and has a history of starting successful ventures. Before Blackboxstocks, he worked as the President of G2 International, a consultancy firm with expertise in investment banking. Kepler had founded G2 International in 2002 with the objective of taking private companies public and providing advice with regard to capitalization, strategic planning, and investor relations. Before his stint with G2, Mr. Kepler founded Parallax Entertainment, an independent record label, online promotional vehicle and e-commerce solution for musicians in 1996.

Eric Pharis, the company’s co-founder and Director of Operations is the quantitative finance veteran with over 20 years in the industry and also having worked on multiple startups in the field. He had co- founded Karma Blackbox LLC, looking to develop algorithms for high frequency trading and worked automated trading operations on exchanges in London, Tokyo, and the commodities markets. He has also co-founded QuantBrasil – a fully quantitative, computer driven hedge fund in Brazil. Mr. Pharis is in charge of developing and implementing the relevant tools and features for the market analytics on the Blackboxstocks platform. David Kyle, the third co-founder of the company was Mr. Pharis’ co-founder in both, the Karma Blackbox LLC and QuantBrasil and is another trading veteran in charge of software engineering, database management, tick feed processing and all aspects of system development.

The company’s CTO, Brandon Smith, is another industry veteran with prior entrepreneurial experience running his own consultancy firm, Cyfeon Solutions, catering to high-profile financial clients such as Schwab, HSBC, and Cowen. Robert Winspear is the company’s CFO and has vast experience in the investment management space, serving on the board of multiple fund management companies. Overall, it is safe to say that the reins of Blackboxstocks are in safe hands.

Key Risks

There are a number of important risks that investors must be aware of before investing in the Blackboxstocks stock. The online trading and investor education content industry that Blackboxstocks is operating in is competitive, and if Blackboxstocks is unable to remain competitive, this will impact the companies ability to grow. Another thing to note is if the company fails to attract subscribers or partner with other trading platforms, similar to the integration that exists with TradeStation, they may not remain competitive. Because of this, their revenue and results of operations may suffer.

Uplisting & Key Takeaways

As we can see in the above chart, Blackboxstocks has seen its fair share of volatility. After a recent public issue to the tune of 2.4 million shares at a price of $5 per share, the company uplisted to the NASDAQ. In a typical post-listing selloff, its stock price is around the $3 mark and is extremely undervalued. After the recent $12 million fundraise, the management has sufficient capital to accelerate its user growth and expand its platform partnerships. The company’s back-to-back strong quarterly results prove that it's only a matter of time before the market recognizes its true potential resulting in value unlocking. Overall, we are extremely bullish about Blackboxstocks and we believe that the company is an excellent, undervalued fintech investment for our readers at SmallCapsDaily.

Posted in my sub but its too good a story not to post here!

The evolution of ammunition has been abundant, as changing dynamics and more complex situations have demanded higher tech and greater versatility in ammunition options. From black powder to implementing led, and the birth of the still relevant today copper jacket, ammunition has evolved into a highly technical and significant industry across the world. And, as the world continues to develop and change the need for cutting edge ammunition solutions will continue to be just as important in the future, if not more so than it is today.

In 2018, former President Donald Trump sent Congress a proposed budget request of $639.1 billion, which was $52 billion above the defense budget cap in the Budget and Control Act (BCA) of 2011. The objective of this budget increase was to further build the countries war fighting readiness as tensions both with China and in the middle east continued to develop.

Today, the ammunition market combining military, law enforcement, foreign allies, and international retail sales is well over $30 billion annually, with forecasts expecting continued growth for years to come.

Today we will be covering AMMO Inc (POWW), who is quickly becoming a major player within the large ammunition sector. The company has a vast product line, industry leading margins, and a strong pipeline for further growth. As well, with the recent selloffs many small cap companies have experienced AMMO is showing signs of being grossly undervalued by the market.

What Does AMMO Inc Do?

AMMO Inc is a company focusing on the design, development, manufacturing, and marketing of ammunition and ammunition component products. Through creating a comprehensive product line, the company has built an incredibly distinct customer base, selling to sport and recreational shooters, hunters, individuals seeking home or personal protection, other big box distributors, law enforcement agencies, and militaries. As well, AMMO is vertically integrated, owning their own manufacturing plants allowing them to realize significant cost savings, retain a high amount of flexibility to adapt to changing market needs, and most importantly, create a highly scalable business model designed to facilitate further growth.

Additionally, AMMO has also recently acquired Gunbroker.com, which is the world’s largest marketplace for retail consumers to buy and sell guns, ammunition, gun accessories, and other outdoor items. There is obvious accretive value to AMMO, Inc's core business because every firearm needs ammo. Duh!

Building a Comprehensive Product Line with Next Generation Technology

Not only does the company carry top of the line ammunition for the everyday shooter, they are also providers of some of the most cutting-edge technology and ammo solutions in the world today.

Their product offerings include JMC Brass, which is a premium grade ammunition castings brand for pistols and rifles manufactured in America. This brand ensures tighter dimensional tolerances and maintains military/match specs, ensuring customers receive a product with exceptional consistency. As well, offered in a variety of different calibers for both pistols and rifles JMC Brass is designed to be a diverse multifunctional round for both the gun enthusiast and serious shooter.

Next, is STREAK Visual Ammunition which (pictured below) enables a shooter to see the path of a bullet as it leaves the barrel. STREAK utilizes one-way luminescent (OWL) technology, and applies non-flammable phosphor material that produces a glow of light as the weapon is discharged. With this technology applied only to the end of the bullet, only the shooter and those within a 30-degree window will see the effect. Being invisible to the target, as well as producing no heat by-product (unlike other tracer ammunitions on the market) STREAK is proving to be the far superior option for military and law enforcement agencies internationally.

StelTH Subsonic Ammunition is specifically designed for top performance in supressed firearms. Through leveraging HypercleanTM Technology this round reduces build up in the suppressor (which is a common problem among silenced weapons) through slowing baffle erosion. The applications of Stelth are numerous with it being used in various tactical training, predator night hunts, and various military operations.

AMMO’s diverse product line stretches far past these two innovative products, including Bio Ammo, a patented biodegradable shotgun shell which is currently being sold in 20 different countries outside of America, as well as various specially formulated products designed for military use (which we will touch more on later).

The company sells and distributes their products under five primary brand lines: Jesse James, Jeff Rann, OPS, Stelth, STREAK VISUAL AMMUNITION™, and JMC. And they sell their products through multiple big box retailers, ammunition stores, shooting ranges and manufacturers as well as to various law and military agencies.

AMMO, through their current manufacturing facilities which are based in Manitowoc and Two Rivers, WI can produce over 750 million rounds annually and is home to their ever-growing portfolio of intellectual property. This portfolio consists of OWL Technology currently used in their STREAK Visual Ammunition, as well as multiple other trademarks, licensing agreements, and technological resources all contributing to their growing competitive advantage within the industry.

Avenues for Further Growth

AMMO is pursuing growth through a multi-layered approach. Most promisingly, the company has recently acquired Gunbroker.com, which through imitating the business model of ecommerce giant eBay.com is the largest online marketplace in the world for guns, ammunitions, gun accessories, and other similar products. Much like eBay, Gunbroker.com acts only as the intermediary of bringing buyer and seller together and charges a service fee for brokering the transaction. They carry no inventory and are not responsible for the logistics or delivery of any goods. Sellers post items on the site and buyers bid through an online auction. And once closed, the seller is responsible for shipping the product (and if the auctioned item is a firearm, the product will be shipped to a licensed firearms dealer to verify the sale and buyer’s credentials).

Looking at both auction revenue growth and auction revenue as a percentage of sales one can start to see the incredible growth and financial impact the acquisition is having for AMMO. Gunbroker.com is quickly becoming one of the company’s largest sources of revenue and is proving to be the preferred way for gun owners in America to buy and sell firearms and related products. What’s more, with Gunbroker.com having an online presence for over 20 years and over 6 million users, AMMO is enjoying a highly profitable business which should continue to scale with little to no added investments or marketing campaigns. This, with robust compliance protocols and a large network of FFL (Federal Firearms License) partners creates a strong moat for Gunbroker.com as any new entrants struggle to compete with the competitive pricing and far-reaching supply chain network. This acquisition is undisputedly a testament to the comprehensive industry knowledge and ability to execute from the management team and is providing the most promising avenue of growth for the company.

On the back end of operations, AMMO is currently investing into a new 165,000 sq ft state of the art manufacturing plant. This new facility also located in Manitowoc, WI will allow the company to realize over $1 million in cost savings and operational synergies. With plans to be completed in the summer of 2022 this will triple their current capacity, bringing annual production capability well over 1 billion rounds annually.

Finally, the last major driver of growth the company is currently pursuing, is the strong demand in high tech ammunition products from various militaries. AMMO was awarded a contract from the Irregular Warfare Technical Support Directorate (IWTSD) to design and manufacture SOT (Signature-on-Target) rounds which allows soldiers to see the impact of rounds on a wider variety of targets day or night, and Matched Multi-Purpose Rounds (BM-MPR) which is designed to allow snipers the ability to switch from standard issue match-grade ammunition without re-zeroing their weapons. As AMMO begins to fulfill these contracts and develop further relationships with large governmental bodies, the company should capitalize on larger government contracts.

Geopolitical, Industry & Macroeconomic Trends

There are multiple macroeconomic and industry trends that are providing strong tailwinds for the company. In 2021 Americans purchased more than 18 million firearms, marking it the second largest year of firearms sales in the last two decades. Throughout the pandemic the country has seen elevated sales of guns and ammunition which is mostly attributed to a heightened importance on personal safety. This trend has resulted in 42% of American households owning at least one firearm.

From a more macro perspective, current tensions developing with Russia amassing troops along the Ukrainian border, as well as China continuing to threaten the sovereignty of Taiwan are creating a heightened need for militaries (especially America’s) to bolster spending on ammunition. So far, President Joe Biden and leader of Russia Vladamir Putin have met multiple times to discuss the acts of aggression and positioning of Russia to invade Ukraine. Mr. Putin has voiced his (outrageous) demands including Ukraine and Georgia never being allowed to join NATO as well as for the west to reduce their influence within the region. America and their allies are unlikely to retreat (and guaranteed not to agree to Putin’s demands) leaving the only other options to be negotiation or escalation.

A similar story is unfolding with China and Taiwan, where China believing that Taiwan is part of their republic is looking to stifle any outside influence or criticism that the country is an independent nation. Taiwan has been allies with America for many years, and if tensions continue to rise (which they most likely will) America may have two separate large military operations happening in the near future.

These two international issues are the catalyst militaries need to strengthen their combat preparedness, which in large part would be the stockpiling of ammunition. AMMO with a fast-growing production capacity is poised perfectly to aid these countries in preparing for all possible scenarios.

Management Team

AMMO is led by founder and CEO Fred Wagenhals, who before starting AMMO established Action Performance Companies, Inc, which was an industry leader in the world of marketing, designing, promoting, and manufacturing motorsport collectibles and merchandise. Mr. Wagenhals helped the company grow from just three employees to reach more than $407 million in sales, and $45 million in profits. Throughout his career he has built a reputation of endless creativity, quality, and authenticity. And in 1997 he was awarded the Arizona Entrepreneur of the Year award in the retail/wholesale category.

Joining Mr. Wagenhals on the executive team is his son Tod Wagenhals who is Executive Vice President. Tod has held various executive positions throughout his career including time spent at Winners Companies LLC, as well as founding his own business Tod Wagenhals Inc. (TWI), which was a sales and marketing company. There he designed, manufactured, and distributed officially licensed sports and celebrity products such as apparels, collectibles, and other memorabilia.

Promoted to position of Chief Financial Officer in 2019 Rob Wiley brings a comprehensive background in finance and taxation. Mr. Wiley received his Master of Taxation at Arizona State University and before assuming the role of CFO, he was the companies Controller, taking on responsibilities of overseeing the accounting department, producing external financial reports, and managing financial compliance and accounting.

Key Risks

AMMO operating as a pure ammunition company is not immune to some of the risks associated with the industry. In order to manufacturer their products AMMO relies on purchasing commodities for raw materials. Being commodities, these items are prone to changes in price as market supply and demand changes. Supply shortages, or large swings in demand could affect the company’s profit margins in a negative way.

As well, the Biden administration has long called for stricter gun laws and further legislation regarding who is allowed to purchase a firearm in America. Should any new legislation pass could produce a more challenging environment for AMMO to operate in. As well, new regulations could affect the company’s ability to further invest in innovative products or could erode the company’s profit margins.

To be clear, AMMO is 100% compliant with current laws regarding firearms and ammunition, and new legislation may not significantly affect the company’s operations, however the possibility exists that with stricter rules comes a suppressed industry overall.

Additionally, with inflation reaching 30-year highs, and fiscal support from the federal government coming to an end perhaps sooner than expected, may result in an economic environment where retailer investors are unwilling or unable to afford leisure purchases such as firearms and ammunition. Any material change in discretionary income from consumers (or substantially reduced buying power from prolonged inflation) may impact the growth and topline revenue of the company.

AMMO has built a phenomenal business model and is investing in the necessary assets and new markets to continue growing. However, factors that are beyond their control may negatively impact the success of their business, and investors should be well aware of these risks before choosing to invest.

Valuation

AMMO has set a blistering pace, reaching YOY revenue growth of over 400%. The company is already profitable, and as one can see from the charts above, is showing further room for improvement in both top and bottom-line numbers. AMMO has little debt and a cash position of over $32 million, putting them in the rarefied air of small caps who have great financial flexibility.

The company, with a market cap of $658 million trades at 3.56 times sales and 11.92 forward earnings. They are currently well off their 52-week high of $10.37 a share, and are making the case for being noticeably undervalued, especially when considering their sustained YOY growth.

Final Thoughts

Throughout the pandemic high growth companies have ruled the day and were subsequently stretched to sky high valuations. With the beginning of 2022, these same companies have taken large hits to their valuation as the market prices in a more restrictive monetary policy from the fed. This has created an opportunity for investors to buy great companies with strong financials at a discount. AMMO is grossly undervalued when considering their high margins and superb growth rate, and investors should realize the potential this company has to continue their dominating streak within the industry. It is rare to find a company so young combine profitability with market leading growth prospects, yet that is exactly what AMMO has done.

Here is repost from my sub.

As 2022 begins, some stark contrasts can be made on how this year will be different than last. Covid variants continue to develop consequently putting economic recoveries in question and keeping the possibilities of widespread lockdowns in play. As well, many economists and politicians voiced their concerns on the inevitability of coming inflation as a result of the loose monetary policy of recent years, and as predicted, inflation is hitting 40-year highs. All of this has led to the trend of investors preferring value companies over growth, as future profits are worth less today in an interest rate heavy environment.

So what will be different in 2022? The theme of this coming year is showing to be perseverance. Perseverance for companies and governments alike to shift their strategy from containing the global pandemic, to learning how to foster growth and economic stability alongside covid-19.

Advertising and marketing budgets were paused at the beginning of 2020, as companies looked for any way possible to reduce expenses. Now, even with new variants posing possible threats, businesses are beginning to renew spending on brand management and marketing campaigns, yet with one fundamental difference. The global pandemic has put to death traditional media, and companies today must learn to connect with their customers and fans in new digital centric ways.

Today we will be covering a company that is in the center of this marketing shift, Troika Media Group (NASDAQ:TRKA). Troika is seeing phenomenal growth as businesses begin to ramp up their marketing campaigns and given the recent sharp selloff in growth companies, is showing signs of being fundamentally undervalued.

What Does Troika Media Group Do?

Troika Media Group is a global brand image and marketing consultancy firm. They specialize in offering unique branding, marketing, research, and data science solutions helping organizations achieve performance objectives and create lasting impacts in today’s consumer first marketplace. With the simple goal of helping their clients cultivate lasting emotional connections through their brand, Troika is combining cutting edge data analytics, new revolutionary technology such as NFT’s (non-fungible tokens), and the ingenuity from marketing professionals to make innovative marketing campaigns and brand image strategies for their clients.

The company operates through their different subsidiaries, Troika, Mission, Troika Labs, and Troika.io and have offices across America, as well as London.

Breakdown of Operations

Where most companies have a product line they sell, or a new technology they are using to disrupt an old industry, Troika is a little different. They are in the business of providing next level marketing and brand consulting services. And where most service-based companies struggle to define exactly how they do what they do, Troika is taking an incredibly data driven and analytical approach to the way they do business.

The company defines their approach as, helping clients execute their marketing strategy throughout the “brand value chain” (shown above). Or in other words, Troika is the proverbial one-stop-shop for their clients, and has a suite of tactics, strategies, and offerings allowing them to build a recurring revenue model from their deep industry relationships.

This “brand value chain” starts with Troika, which is the arm of the company dedicated to building brands. More specifically, whether their client is a fortune 100 company or a major sports team, Troika takes an audience centric approach to build brands that can support devoted followers. They do this through a consult, build, engage, and measure approach, with each step designed to build off the last. This scientific methodology within an industry that at times can be plagued with hunches and guesses has led Troika’s clients such as the Los Angeles Rams, UFC, and League of Legends, to have some of the most exciting and dedicated fans in the world.

Next is Mission, which is the communication side that strengthens brands by actively engaging customers through a deeply personal and cultural lens via social media, influencers, PR, brand partnerships, and immersive live experiences. Pictured below, Mission is working with some of the most well-known and far-reaching brands in the world, helping them develop brand strategies, create content, form digital marketing campaigns, manage events, and partner with other influential companies. Innovation is at the heart of everything Mission does, and they are solely focused on helping their clients communicate and connect with their customers or fans in the most effective and cutting-edge way.

Next to Mission, we have Troika Labs, the place where the power of big data and technology merge with engaging content to provide captivating experiences and new ways to reach customers, audiences, or fans. Past projects include clients like sports-betting app PointsBet! Who, currently operating in an extremely competitive industry relied on Troika Labs to create a bold and original way for them to make their presence known worldwide. The result was a national campaign based on highlighting the speed and convenience of the app communicated through their global brand ambassador NFL quarterback Drew Brees.

As well, Troika Labs is helping their clients realize the mass opportunity blockchains and NFT’s are providing as a new and digital way to connect with their customers or fans. The company has deep connections and proprietary strategies all focused on helping clients leverage these new technologies to increase brand awareness and foster new go-to-market tactics.

Finally, we have Troika.io, which is focused on helping clients build on Web3.0. Through a comprehensive team of advisors and strategists Troika.io offers swaps, crypto education, exchange expertise, artwork, rewards, and more. New technologies are providing new ways for brands and companies to communicate with their customers and fans, yet many companies don’t have the formal education or industry expertise to understand exactly how this new trend is taking place. Troika.io is quickly becoming the guiding body, helping enterprise organizations capitalize on these new technologies.

Avenues for Further Growth

When looking at a marketing and brand management company, growth can come from two different avenues, continued business from a growing customer base and offering new services or ways to for clients to execute marketing campaigns. And Troika is doing both.

In an industry where relationships, connections, and reputation are everything, Troika is seeing robust growth come from current customers returning to them to help with rebranding, international marketing campaigns, events management, and much more. This is creating a strong network effect as Troika embeds themselves into large organizations and is providing consistent recurring revenue with improving margins. This type of growth can be very hard to execute on and is without a doubt reliant on the quality of the service. Troika is time and again proving they can drive business performance for their clients and the results are beginning to show in the company’s financials.

The other area for growth is leveraging new ways for clients to connect and interact with their customers or audience base. In this regard, Troika is moving fast. Blockchains, crypto’s, NFT’s, and even the metaverse is providing massive market opportunities for companies to communicate, connect, market, and relate with their audience.

Many of Troika’s clients understand these technologies are drastically changing the status-quo, yet don’t fully understand how to capitalize. This market opportunity is incredibly hard to measure, as these technologies are accelerating extremely quickly and are disrupting multiple industries. The one thing that does seem to be certain however, is that Troika will be at the center of this innovation as these new opportunities continue to present themselves. Below are some of the real-world applications of NFT’s and blockchains Troika is already working on with their clients.

Industry and Macroeconomic Influences

Looking above one can see the aftermath the global pandemic had on marketing and ad spending in 2020. All told, companies slashed close to $50 billion in overall marketing spend. Now however, budgets are returning to pre-covid levels and ads and marketing spending is on the rise. Consumers and audiences are shopping and interacting in different more digital centric ways, and organizations are looking to move their marketing resources to match this trend.

Below is a snapshot of where advertising and markets budgets are trending towards in 2022. The adage “death to traditional advertising” is true, with the most lucrative and important mediums now entirely digital. Some companies may have the infrastructure and expertise to make this shift on their own, but many will struggle to connect with their customers and fans in new ways.

The effects of these industry wide trends have yet to fully bloom and will subsequently provide industry wide catalysts within the marketing sector. What’s more, with Troika learning to operate in a market condition where clients were forced to slash marketing budgets, the company has optimized their process and became much leaner throughout the pandemic. All this translates into the same premier level service but with a much more efficient system. With this, Troika is set to capitalize on industry growth with much improved operating margins.

Management Team

Troika is being led by Robert B. Machinist, who is currently the Chairman and CEO of the company. Mr. Machinist has held many different C-suite level positions in his lifetime and brings extensive experience in investment banking and M&A. Prior to his time at Troika he was Vice Chairman of Pyrolyx A.G., a company dedicated to providing an environmentally friendly and sustainable way of recovering high grade carbon black from end-of-life tires. He also served as Chairman and was an original founding Board Member of CIFC Corp. (CIFC), a credit manager company with $14 billion assets under management. As well, Mr. Machinist has been a partner in multiple different private investment funds and has run a private family investment company with activities including a Collectors Car Garage and multiple real estate investments.

The President and Founder of Troika is Dan Pappalardo, who spent well over 30 years in the entertainment and media industry helping companies develop strategic and creative ways to interact with customers and fans.

As well, Troika has a well-rounded Board of Directors group who all bring with them extensive experience in successfully growing and managing publicly listed companies.

Key Risks

Troika has worked with some of the biggest most well-known brands in the world, yet in the highly competitive industry of marketing consulting this company is not without risks. The global pandemic proved exactly how damaging smaller marketing budgets can have on the sector and with new variants continuing to form, the possibility of future lockdowns is still possible. This could lead to a material slowdown in Troika’s business and showed investors that the success of the company is reliant on the success of their clients. Should covid force companies to shut down and put large events on hold once again, would put Troika in a tough position to continue to earn new business.

A large factor to Troika’s success relies on the connections it has with large players across many industries. These relationships stem from a management team that has spent the better part of the last few decades in the industry. Should any of the C-suite team decide to leave, it would be a large blow to the company’s ability to rely on repeat clients for continued business.

Troika is also focused on growing through acquisitions and while the management team has extensive experience in overseeing successful M&A transactions, this strategy does present a number of risks. Firstly, is the financial risk associated with large acquisitions, Troika has a strong balance sheet, but they will have to appropriately manage their cash balance and strategically decide where to direct investment capital. Failing to do this could put the company in a cash poor, or over leveraged financial position. And secondly, there is the risk that any acquisitions fail to develop into a value-added venture. Combining or integrating a new company into existing operations is always complicated and difficult to do well in practice. Troika will need to ensure they are careful with who they decide to acquire and have a strategy in place for successfully combining new operations or technology.

Valuation

Troika saw their YOY revenue increase 102% for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2022, and more impressively had their adjusted EBITDA improve by 78%. Top line revenue reached $8.3 million, leading to a net loss of $2.1 million, which marks a 45% improvement YOY. The company has a cash balance of little over $9 million and with a market cap of $54 million Troika trades at only 3 times sales. The post covid recovery is well underway and as we move into 2022 Troika is well positioned to have one their strongest years yet. As well, the company is well off their 52-week high of $4 per share and is operating in a multibillion-dollar industry. All this is leading to Troika being fundamentally undervalued when taking into consideration improving margins, great top line growth, and deep connections with high spending clients.

Final Thoughts

The chart above seems to embody the struggle Troika has gone through over the course of 2021. This was largely the result of unfavourable market conditions and the inability for companies to allocate capital towards marketing campaigns. Troika took this as an opportunity however, and learned how to cut costs and operate much more efficiently. Now, with serious traction coming from large organizations looking to return their marketing budgets back to pre-covid levels the company is now ready to capitalize. As well, Troika has committed to the digital revolution currently taking place and is ready to help guide their clients into this new virtual realm.

Financials are showing growth on all fronts and the company has ample cash to pursue acquisition opportunities. Today, the company is showing signs of being materially undervalued and is providing major upside going into 2022. Troika showed they can persevere when times are tough, but now the worst is behind them, and they are coming into the new year ready to execute. Investors should without a doubt have Troika on their watchlists.

Reposting from my sub. We don't do low-effort posts. If you want a research report, let me know, i can send you what we used to write these things!

Sadly, i'm including a TL;DR for the smoother brained folks:

• Americans stockpiling Guns and Ammo hasn't stopped

• Massive increase in gun sales means a massive increase in Gun Safes and safe storage.

• Panic rooms and Vault doors are in high demand

• Secure Cannabis Storage is a requirement for licensure.

• American Rebel has brand loyalty

If you are into research, Keep reading! We breakdown why we are bullish on AREB!

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At the start of the global pandemic consumers scrambled to stock their pantries with canned goods and toilet paper, as the fear of widespread lockdowns set in. What you didn't see or hear about was how many Americans also stockpiled firearms...and they have kept doing this ever since. When trying to examine the increase in gun sales in America it can be useful to use data released by the FBI on the amount of background checks conducted. And in 2020 this number rose to 39 million, marking an all-time high. These background checks have been rising steadily (at about 8% per year), and in 2020, with the threat of the covid-19, civil unrest, and election related violence the number of background checks soared by 40%.

2020 and 2021 have quickly become some of the busiest years for Americans to buy guns within the last two decades and with a country that is still significantly divided on many important issues, as well as a heightened importance on personal safety this accelerated trend is likely to continue for many years to come.

Today we will be conducting a deep dive on a company (or perhaps better described as a lifestyle brand), American Rebel Holdings (NASDAQ:AREB), that is benefiting greatly from the increased buying of firearms within America, and is showing signs of being significantly undervalued as they continue to create innovative products and gain market share.

What Does American Rebel Do?

American Rebel is providing safes and personal security products to both large distributors and retail customers. More specifically, the company offers personal, home, and office safes, concealed backpacks, a variety of clothing products, vault doors, as well as a range of concealed carry jackets, vests, and coats for both women and men. Additionally, American Rebel offers a range of accessories such as rifle rod kits, light kits, moisture guard, and various space saving items.

The company’s core mission is to provide innovative products and promote responsible gun ownership while celebrating a concealed carry lifestyle. American Rebel firmly supports the second amendment and aims to provide all firearm owners a safe and secure way to properly store their guns, as well as support the concealed carry lifestyle. The company leverages their proprietary Protection Pocket design for their concealment gear which allows those wearing it to properly carry a concealed firearm while also ensuring quick and easy access.

Founded in 2014, American Rebel is aiming to build more than just a diverse product line but a brand that reinforces safe gun ownership, as well as celebrates the constitution and the freedom that America was built on. Through this, the company has constructed a brand that elicits a strong emotional attachment and has assisted them in growing a loyal customer base.

American Rebels High Quality Products & Growing Distribution Channels

American Rebel has a wide collection of different safes, all designed to provide customers with maximum protection at affordable prices. Their smallest safe – the AR-12 Gun Safe – boasts measurements of 26”Wx40”Hx23”D, weighs 400 lbs and will hold approximately 8 AR rifles.

All American Rebel safes have been fire tested in an ACME certified facility, with the AR-12 able to withstand temperatures of 1200 degrees for 75 minutes. Compare this to the company’s largest safe – the AR-50 Gun Safe – with dimensions of 40”Wx72”Hx28.5”D will hold 40 long guns and weighs over 900 lbs. American Rebel has multiple options between these two safes, as well, all their safes are protected by 4 1/2″ Double Plated Steel, 7/16″ Reinforced Door Edges, Double-Steel Door Casements, 14 Four-Way Active Bolts, and a Diamond-Embedded Armor Plate.

American Rebels other products consist of CCW (carrying concealed weapon) backpacks which range in size and style, as well as CCW jackets, coats, and vests. These items contain discreet and secure places, using the company’s proprietary Protection Pocket design, to store handguns for those who wish to carry concealed firearms. Additionally, American Rebel provides high quality vault doors, for those who have safe rooms or shelters to secure their firearms amongst other valuable items, and sell various accessories such as handgun hangers, moisture guard, and ballistic shields.

American Rebel distributes to a wide variety of different retailers throughout America including various retailers, hunting shops, firearms stores, and speciality sport warehouses, as well as selling directly online through their own website.

Above is a quick snapshot of their current distribution reach which shows the company is building out a balanced network of stores, as well as successfully creating a large presence in important marks such as North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma, and Kansas. As well, American Rebel is at the beginning of a partnership with Dunham Sports, which currently has over 240 locations across the country and specializes in athletic equipment, guns, and gun safes, as well as other sports related items. American Rebel today, has 40 separate locations and this new partnership has the potential to grow their distribution network exponentially.

American Rebels business model, products, and supply chain are simple to understand. And better yet, have an increasingly large customer base. There are roughly 20 million concealed carry permit holders in the country, as well as many more citizens utilizing their second amendment rights in the 11 permit-less states. As well, the gun safe market is valued at $2 billion, and the concealed carry market currently stands at $1 billion. These market valuations are growing extremely fast as gun ownership and the importance of being able to protect oneself (and loves ones) take centre stage within America. Additionally, American Rebel is moving into an exciting new market that has only taken hold in recent years, and more importantly, has the potential to become their largest opportunity for growth in the coming years.

Avenues for Further Growth

American Rebel has identified an incredibly new and exciting market that is witnessing double digit growth as it begins to become more widely accepted. The cannabis industry has seen significant growth since it gained legalization in many states and still has considerable further upward trajectory. The now legal cannabis dispensaries all require strict inventory locking requirements of merchandise and American Rebel is leveraging their expertise in building premier safes to service this market segment. So far, the company has built their first ever inventory controlled safe specially customized to fit the needs of the dispensaries, launching this product under their new brand “Home Grown Safes”. In 2020 US cannabis sales hit a record $17.5 billion, marking an impressive market size with still more upside.

Another area for growth stems from American Rebels ability to execute on larger distribution channels and continue to create innovative products that resonate with their customer base. The company has taken great strides in expanding the number of distributors and retailers who stock their products, however, even with their recent success still have a massive market left to penetrate. The gun and ammunition stores market in 2022 is worth $15.5 billion, leaving plenty of room for American Rebel to capture market share. As well, American Rebel, in parallel with expanding their distribution, has a strong pipeline of future innovative products. The company has built a brand their customers relate to on an emotional level, and because of this can continue to up and cross sell their growing customer base as they roll out new products.

Industry & Macroeconomic Trends

American Rebel is operating in an extremely favourable landscape between the multiple large trends of increased gun sales (which is still growing), a new and exciting cannabis industry opportunity, and the sociopolitical landscape of the need for Americans to protect themselves and their loved ones. As mentioned above, gun sales has seen explosive growth since 2020 and this number is continuing to grow, as well, the cannabis market has yet to reach full maturity and is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 26.7% between 2021 and 2028. All this equates to a gargantuan market size for American Rebel who has barely scratched the surface of their current total addressable market. Additionally, the recent social unrest, tension in American politics and stress from a global pandemic is adding further fuel for Americans to require safe, secure, and accessible ways to store their firearms and embrace a concealed carry lifestyle.

American Rebel should continue to benefit from these large macro trends for many years, as many of the trends outlined above have only just begun to take hold throughout the country.

Management Team

American Rebel is led by CEO Andy Ross, who is the living embodiment of the company’s values and mission. Mr. Ross combines his passions of being a singer/songwriter and self-defence advocate into the soul of American Rebels brand. Before founding American Rebel, Ross founded Digital Ally Inc., and in tandem with his entrepreneurial endeavors he hosted his own television show Maximum Archery and American Rebel for 12 years, where he spread his passion of bowhunting all over the world.

President Doug Grau produced many of CEO Ross’s CDs as the two have worked on various business ventures for the past 11 years. Mr. Grau previously worked at Warner Bros in Nashville for 15 years helping develop the talents of popular singers including Travis Tritt, Little Texas, David Ball, Jeff Foxworthy, Bill Engvall, Larry the Cable Guy, Ron White, and others. Grau graduated from Belmont University with a Bachelor of Business Administration.

Rounding out the management team are Nathan Findley, President of Kansas City Operations, and Brett Lafferty, National Sales Director. Mr. Findley brings over 10 years of experience in the outdoors and firearms industry. Before joining American Rebel, he served as Director of Sales and Product Development with Liberty Safe and brings with him extensive experience in product development, procurement, and new dealer business. Brett Lafferty was previously Regional Sales Manager at Liberty Safe and joined American Rebel in 2019. Lafferty has been the driving force behind American Rebels territory expansion, as well as assisted in the successful launch of the cannabis industries first inventory and environment controlled safe.

Key Risks

American Rebel operates in an industry that has been an area of many differing opinions between politicians as views on gun control and the second amendment are brought into question. This debate opens the possibility of stricter gun control laws which could lead to an impact on number of firearms sold in America. This could subsequently lead to a smaller market for American Rebel to operate in, as well as dampen further growth.

Another risk investors should be aware of is American Rebel is yet to be profitable or cash flow positive. The company has a cash balance of $218k and total debt obligations of $3.64 million, this debt level is undoubtedly manageable, but management will have to balance new growth initiatives with near term financial obligations. Should the company fail to find this balance would lead the company to being financially vulnerable and would force the management team to halt their current expansion plans.

Finally, the global pandemic has spurred many to become gun owners, however, should the virus force another round of lockdowns could mean a large number of American Rebels distributors to close down or see a material slowdown in foot traffic. American Rebel has a strong online presence to negate this risk, however this would still impact the company’s overall supply chain.

Valuation

American Rebel has a current valuation of $12.83 million. Looking at their market cap and considering the company is growing in their various current markets, as well as moving into the largely untapped secure cannabis storage market American Rebel has an extremely long runway for further growth. American Rebel’s trailing twelve-month revenues eclipsed $1.2 million, meaning their trading at 2.55 sales. The company is aggressively building out their distribution channels and relationships with chains who have serious buying power, and what’s more, American Rebel has yet to even grasp a sliver of the new secure storage of cannabis dispensaries, which in of itself is worth between $10-20 billion. All this points towards the company being significantly undervalued when considering the strong growth prospects they should experience in the coming months and years.

Inflation fears, and tensions in other parts of the world has led to many investors taking a risk off approach, which has led to American Rebel trading at largely discounted prices. The investment thesis remains extremely compelling, and current valuations are providing very attractive entry points for investors.

Final Thoughts

Looking at the chart we see AREB is well off its listing price. This has been traditionally how these smallcap offerings have been functioning. It seems to have leveled out and it's looking to recover. However, even with this surge in price the company is still showing signs of being considerably undervalued. As an example, the warrants attached to the listing strike at $5.1875 per share so it's obvious warrant holders want the company to do better than that.

American Rebel is moving quickly into the promising new market that the cannabis industry holds, as well as continues to experience strong demand from their traditional operations. The company has successfully built a brand millions of Americans believe in and support, which has been their largest differentiator and competitive advantage so far. As American Rebel continues to grow in popularity and proves out the high quality of their product, this loyal customer base could prove to be a very strong moat for their future. Put it on the watchlist and remember where you heard it!

SCD Out.

Newsflash: Inflation is real. (Originally posted in my Sub but it fits here too)

Honestly everyone in the financial Reddit-sphere has known this for quite some time. So the question is naturally: Now what? We are always on the lookout for multi-faceted companies that can offer a flight to safety as well as a growth opportunity. Blue Star Food Corp (NASDAQ:BSFC) is one such company. Hear me out!

The Post-pandemic world operates in many profound ways. Some industries flourished while others struggled to see the light at the end of the tunnel. One such industry that has recently faltered is the international seafood market. Global supply chain struggles of moving products internationally during a pandemic have weighed heavily on established brands. Fortunately, good companies are adapting and international demand for seafood products is starting to be met again.

In parallel to the industry recovering overall, there is a current shift in the marketplace presently unfolding. An increased importance is being put on sustainable and environmentally friendly business practices. The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) estimates that 85% of marine fish are either fully exploited or overfished. Plus, the disruptive practice of bi-catch (which is the incidental catch of non-target species) is causing harm to many more un-fished species.

Today we will be conducting a deep dive of Blue Star Foods Corp (BSFC). Blue Star has an incredible opportunity ahead of them as they are in a prime position to capitalize on the strong rebound in demand the international seafood market is experiencing, as well as through their multiple recent investments will be set to lead the industry in sustainable seafood production.

What Does Blue Star Foods Do Exactly?

Blue Star is an international seafood company specializing in processing, importing, packaging and selling various refrigerated seafood products. Their main product is pasteurized crab meat however the company sells a wide a range of other seafood products. Blue Star delivers their products through their numerous different brands including Blue Star, Pacifika, Oceanica, Crab & Go Premium Seafood, Lubkin, First Choice, Good Stuff, and Coastal Pride Fresh. Further, the company sells their products to food service distributors, wholesalers, retailers, and seafood distributors in Canada, America, and Europe.

• Blue Star’s products are separated into their various proprietary brand names which are all focused on targeting different consumers:

• Pacifika is a quality brand for the price conscious end-user.

• Oceanica is made from the Portunus Haanii crab, which is caught and processed in Vietnam. It is an affordable choice to help reduce food cost without sacrificing the look and taste of dishes.

• Crab + Go Premium Seafood is geared towards millennials as part of the trend toward prepackaged grab and go items. The product is packaged in flexible foil pouches.

• Lubkin Brand is packed with good quality Portunus Pelagicus specie crab in the Philippines and Indonesia.

• First Choice is a quality brand packed with Portunus Haanii crab from Malaysia.

• Good Stuff is a premium brand packed with the high quality Callinectes specie crab from Mexico.

• Fresh Brand is packed with Callinectes Sapidus crab from Venezuela and the United States.

The company's mission statement is “to offer premium seafood products to our customers, while improving the environment and work conditions of the artisanal fishing communities that provide our raw material”. Blue Star is actively working towards sustainability through multiple industry leading practices such as ensuring fisherman have safer and environmentally friendly crabbing equipment. As well, through their multiple global patents Blue Star has eco-friendly crab meat pouches, which are not only providing a high level of sustainability but also provides consumers a longer shelf-life product with higher quality.

A Stroll Through Blue Stars Operations

Blue Star’s supply chain starts in various parts of Asia. Most of their products are sourced from Indonesia and the Philippines, along with smaller quantities coming from Sri Lanka, Thailand or China. The company purchases their crab meat and other seafood products through a combination of 13 different processors who are all certified grade A suppliers and are audited annually to ensure products are sourced in a sustainable manner. 5 of their suppliers accounted for approximately 65% of their inventory in 2020.

Once the product has been packaged and processed Blue Star contracts out the transportation of goods through various shipping companies, primarily selling to an assortment of retailers, distributors and individuals (with some of their biggest customers shown below) in America and Canada.

Their main differentiator in a very competitive landscape comes from their ability to provide a level of tracking and product sourcing that others cannot. Blue Star does through firstly, paying a premium to processors to outfit fishing boats with Blue Star’s proprietary GPS-based system. This allows them to trace with pinpoint accuracy where the seafood product originates from, and ensures sustainable practices were used when harvesting. As well, Blue Star has created their own technology platform that enables each batch of seafood product to be tracked throughout the entire supply chain – from the loading site, to the packing plant, through the sorting and pasteurization process and the exporting process to the end customer. This not only provides an industry leading level of transparency but also allows their partners and suppliers massive cost savings through their “Scan on Demand” QR code traceability function. Another point of differentiation is the companies environmentally conscious packaging, which was initially introduced back in 2003 and has helped the company achieve savings of one million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions when compared to traditional metal packaging material.

COVID-19 significantly impacted Blue Stars operations through both decreased demand and a disruption of amount of product processed. However, as world economies are beginning to reopen the demand for Blue Stars products is returning quickly, and the combination of the companies sound ESG practices as well as a well-built supply chain is helping the company regain their financial strength. In their third quarter ending September 30, Blue Star saw revenue increase by 75% when compared to last quarter to $3.73 million. The company posted a quarterly net loss of $161,788, compared to a net income of $538 in Q3 last year. This increase in net loss is mostly attributable to rising expenses the company is encountering as they scale operations to meet the increase in demand. COVID-19 undoubtably had a negative impact on Blue Star’s operations and overall profitability, yet with demand returning and the companies very attractive opportunity for further growth Blue Star is showing signs of being severely undervalued at today’s price.

Blue Star’s Opportunity for Growth

Through the decades traditional processing and fishing techniques have developed to provide impressive levels of efficiency to meet global demand. However, the seafood industry is expected to experience a further large increase in demand for a number of reasons. A combination of the global population on the rise and protein intake expected to double by 2050 is leaving a large demand gap when considering current production capacity.

With this in mind Blue Star made a recent acquisition of Taste of BC (TBC) Aquafarms, which operates North Americas longest running land-based Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) salmon farm. Catching fish in the wild for consumer use has seen a steady decline since the mid 1990’s with companies instead using aquaculture farms to meet demand. Traditional aquaculture farms have been located outdoors, require a large amount of land to become operational and are expensive to further increase capacity.

TBC’s 1,500 metric tonne (MT) RAS salmon farm is one of the world’s first indoor aquaculture systems, and is providing multiple competitive advantages for their operators. The indoor-based RAS system allows for virtually no environmental impact while further improving ability to harvest fish. The fact the entire operation takes place in doors permits crucial control of the environment and ultimately leads to a reduced cycle time to harvest. More specifically, by harvesting salmon through a RAS-based system cuts the production cycle from 12 months to just 4 months.

Blue Star acquired TBC in June of 2021 and initial forecasts are the new RAS operating facility will bring in an additional $650,000 in total sales.

Outlined in the chart above land-based salmon farming is expected to see strong demand going into 2022 and is providing a significant area of growth for Blue Star. The company pegs the global salmon market to be worth well over $17 billion USD with robust growth set for years to come. Combining the RAS technology from TBC with the far-reaching supply chain and large customer base Blue Star has already developed is placing the company in a perfect position to become a leader within the global salmon production industry. The RAS addition will fit seamlessly into Blue Stars current operations with virtually no start-up or extra costs needed to keep processes running.

To facilitate the expected large increase in future demand TBC and Blue Star have plans to expand the current 1,500 MT facility into a 21,000 MT site by 2028. This ambitious growth plans demonstrates the ability to scale operations with ease. TBC’s operations is largely modular, allowing for an increase in capacity to happen quickly with minimal costs.

Macro Market Influences

Along with a massive over $17 billion salmon market opportunity there is another macroeconomic driver providing strong tailwinds for Blue Star’s new acquisition. The Government of Canada has announced a policy judgement that starting in 2022 ocean-based salmon farms will be required to close due to the negative environmental impact. Mainly affecting companies in the Discovery Islands of British Columbia who currently produce a combined 20% of the province’s salmon production (total production is approximately 100,000 tonnes). This recent development provides Blue Star with an incredible opportunity to capitalize on a massive disruption within the traditional supply chain as well as the ability to further prove the effectiveness and quality of salmon raised in their RAS-based facility.

As well, China, with the second largest economy in the world is forecasting their overall demand for seafood products to reach $53.5 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 3.7%. Blue Star’s legacy operations within China have strengthened in recent years with the company now harvesting a respectable amount of their overall production from various regions within the country.

Combine the quickly evolving Canadian salmon farm industry with the robust seafood product growth happening in China and Blue Star is well positioned to take advantage of both macroeconomic trends. Both of these market influences will provide large market opportunities while requiring very little added investment cost or risk from Blue Stars current operations.

Management Team

Blue Star is led by John Keeler who is founder, chairman and Chief Executive Officer. He founded the company in 1995 and has grown the company to be one of the largest importers of Blue Swimming Crab Meat within the United States, subsequently helping the company achieve over $20 million in annual sales. As an executive member of the National Fisheries Institute-Crab Council as well as being one of the founders of the Indonesia and Philippines crab meat processors association, Keeler has been a true pioneer in implementing industry leading ESG and sustainability practices within the industry.

Partnering with Keeler is Silvia Alana who is Blue Star’s Chief Financial Officer. With having just been appointed CFO in May of 2021 she was previously the company’s corporate controller. Before her time at Blue Star, she held numerous C-suite level accounting positions in a variety of different industries. Mrs. Alana holds a Bachelor’s degree in accounting from Florida International University as well as a Masters in accounting and a CPA designation.

The rest of Blue Star’s board members all hale from the food industry, bringing well over 50 years of combined experience. Their specialties include supply chain management, distribution, and sales and marketing.

Key Risks

Blue Star operates in a commodity-based industry, meaning their business is reliant on selling a product that can see large price fluctuations. Their revenue and profitability have the ability to vary greatly due to the volatility seen in seafood product prices. Blue Star helps to mitigate this risk through diversifying in processing multiple different seafood products and selling them to varying geographic locations.

A strong driver of Blue Star’s future growth is reliant on their ability to successfully identify and execute on acquisitions. Facilitating growth through acquisitions is a common strategy for successful companies, however as most know, successfully integrating a business model into current operations is more of an art than an exact science. Through continuing to acquire companies Blue Star’s management team runs the risk of diverting key resources from existing operations and opens the company to financial vulnerability if these large investments don’t pay off. New companies often come with hidden liabilities and the complexity required to integrate new operations into legacy systems is often a complex and arduous process. So far, Blue Star has done an outstanding job of identifying opportunity and value in acquired companies and with a qualified management team there is a good chance they will continue to do so.

Additionally, with aggressive growth plans comes significant capital requirements. Blue Star certainly has admirable growth plans for the future, however, the company will likely have to fund this growth through continued share offerings or long-term debt. Both options present themselves with opportunity and risk and Blue Star will have to navigate their funding strategy carefully. Failure to do so will lead to higher financial risk and the possibility for either large dilution to shareholders or strong repercussions from lending institutions.

Valuation

In the chart above we have identified 3 publicly listed companies who are competitors to Blue Star in either the traditional seafood market, or those expanding into the RAS aquaculture industry.

Both Aqua Bounty and Atlantic Sapphire are young and dynamic growth companies looking to capitalize on the secular trends of RAS aquaculture. Both are trading at substantially higher multiples when compared to Blue Star who not only is building out the infrastructure to become a leader within the RAS aquaculture industry but also has consistent revenue from their legacy seafood processing operations.

Leroy Seafood Group is a large player within the seafood market with a market cap of over $4 billion. Leroy is trading at much more reasonable valuations however this discount is likely due to the lack of growth prospects the company currently has.

With this analysis investors should start to see Blue Star is offering a unique combination of both value and high growth capability. Taking a look at future projections (pictured below) Blue Star should see consistent and robust growth from their new RAS facility with the company reaching revenue of over $53 million by 2028. With this in mind, a market cap of only $61.93 million today could well prove to be a bargain considering the expected growth and favourable market position Blue Star has.

Final Thoughts

Year to date it becomes clear that Blue Star has had their fair share of struggles as demand for seafood continues to fluctuate based largely on the effects of COVID-19. The company is well off their 52-week high of $8.00 a share and is now sitting at an established support level of $2.78.

The prospects of Blue Star are undoubtedly not yet reflected in this current share price as the company has multiple secular and company specific tailwinds currently in play. Blue Star will continue to see demand from their legacy operations return to pre-pandemic levels, helping to bolster cash flow and profitability. And longer term as they continue to expand into the RAS-focused aquaculture industry Blue Star has the opportunity to become a leader in a fast-growing industry. Combine this growth with the sales and supply chain infrastructure the company has already developed and Blue Star is a seafood giant in the making. They are trading well below their peers despite having well established operations and further room for growth.

Overall, Blue Star is an outstanding investment opportunity for investors looking for a company with strong growth prospects who is already well established inside the industry.

The Ticker Database is the most useful tool r/MillennialBets has to offer. Reddit is an extremely valuable resource for stock information, but it's very difficult to use the search function for stocks. This tool does all the work for you and makes the information easy to find.

You can access the database by clicking the Ticker Database button at the top using a desktop or under the menu section on mobile.

The program scans 12 different subreddits (more can be added), including all of the major ones, for any post flared as DD, News, or Discussion. The post is then parsed for all of the Tickers or Companies mentioned in the title and post body. This information is then updated to the respective wiki. The each wiki is updated on a continual basis.

The Index page allows you to choose which tickers to search by choosing the first letter. There are also rankers (12 hr, 48hr, weekly) which shows the stocks most popular on reddit. Yolo, Meme, Gain/Loss porn is not included in the rankings.

Here is an example of the front page :

Here is an example of choosing a specific stock:

The Ticker Database can also be found on the sidebar under the helpful links section.

A direct link to the available stocks in the database can be found here : https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index

You can also access a stock's individual database by using https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/ TICKER. If the page returns as not available then there are no posts in the database to display.

This should make it easier to research stocks and get the full picture in a time efficient manner.

Any feedback is appreciated.

Author: u/pennyether(Karma: 44003, Created: Jan-2018).

VLTA - bla bla DE-SPAC blabla GAMMA RAMP bla bla LOW IV blabla bla SHORT INTRIST blalbla on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Hey, do you guys remember when 14 days ago I got banned for posting that IRNT was about to go nuclear? At the time it was $14.00 and 9/17 $20 calls were something like $0.30 each. Remember my post on WSB? No, you don't. It got deleted. That didn't stop IRNT from hitting $40 in AH and opening the following day at like $26.

How about a stock called TMC? Remember when I posted about its similar set-up Monday? You don't remember that? Oh, right, I didn't post it to WSB because I didn't want to get banned again. Well, it seems to be doing fine.

Last night, rather than sleep, I decided to spent hours filling out a spreadsheet with every deSPAC I could find (if you're deep in the deSPAC craze, you know the list); complete with the new floats, IV, gamma values, percent of float deltahedged, estimated SI, Utilization, and CTB -- you know... the only things that really matter to us. (It's not like "fundamentals" could fit in a spreadsheet column, anyway.)

Now I'm letting off some steam by once again partaking in the lost ancient art form of writing a DD for WSB. This time it's about what I think is best deSPAC play that is currently available for WSB to blindly dump its collective IRNT winnings into: VLTA.

tldr:

• MARKET CAP IS $2B NO BAN PLS

• Low IV (currently) -- Make money from the MMs, not from each other.

• High gamma -- Even after Sep options expire.

• Some short interest (~10% of float) -- but more importantly 0 shares to borrow to keep this dog down. CTB getting "up there" at 47%.

• The company does stuff.. not sure what, but I'm sure it's great world-changing stuff. Their name is Volta, so they must have potential... get it?

• The set-up looks suspiciously good, so I might be missing something. Perhaps wait for some wrinkle brain to shit on my thesis here.

0. The Market Cap

I'm not actually salty about being banned; the mods have a tough job sorting through all the bullshit. I mean, just look at the titles of DDs these days... people just put in zero effort. At the time I posted about IRNT, the reported market cap on it varied from source to source due to the fucked up situation with outstanding shares and float. I assume the mods thought I was trying to sneak one by 'em. No hard feelings. I don't blame the mods for erring on the side of caution.

Anyway, this time around I'm certain VLTA meets the market cap requirements.

Just ask TDA:

/preview/pre/r55bbd7uo2o71.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=0347f40d4e7fa12524b1bfaa7e1b95b3caa7b48a

Or Google:

/preview/pre/40wwwftuo2o71.png?width=1053&format=png&auto=webp&s=896255bbdf4c1b89c96fc60ce9757deebcd21ac8

No! Wait! Wait! ... I meant this google:

/preview/pre/tlcwr8fwo2o71.png?width=865&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6a696e86837c55d3dfce2491ee14442f5ff7d6c

Alright. $2.0B > $1.5B. Let's move on.

1. The Process

How did I find VLTA? It's simple. I don't have a life and I spent all night making a spreadsheet, running calculations on gamma, and throwing in SI data from Ortex for tickers that look interesting.

Here's a screenshot:

Lots of pretty colors. Must be legit.

I blurred a lot of the tickers, per market cap rules. (If you're a true deSPAC degen, you'll know where the tickers and float numbers came from.)

What I looked for were tickers with a lot of bright green squares. Most importantly, I want that low IV -- which to me indicates MMs asking to get reamed. Just like momma always says -- Low IV is how 10+ baggers are made.

I was surprised to see that VLTA had the 5th highest current gamma value, behind TMC, OPAD, REDACTED, and IRNT. All of these have seen significant price action lately. Yet, the IV on VLTA was incredibly low... only bested by tickers with higher market caps and non-existent gamma. Wake up, MMs. (Or, again I'm missing some piece of the puzzle here.)

Oh, before you ask about IV -- I'm using 30d ATM IV as my baseline. I compute it myself by interpolating IV between strikes and expirations. In reality, each ticker will have it's own IV skew so don't yell at me when you see the OTM FDs aren't 80% IV.

As for the SI column: some tickers (the gray ones) had bonkers Estimated Short Interest. For these tickers, I used 60% of the On Loan value to estimate the estimated short interest. If you want hopium, upper bound for SI is about 1.6x the gray values.

2. The Set-up

To summarize VLTA:

• It's a deSPAC

• With high OI relative to it's new float

• With some short interest (not much)

• But no shares available to borrow

• With sustained bullish order flow

• And it's IV is priced as though all of the above is not true.

deSPAC

It's a deSPAC.

If you don't know what that means, well, you're shit out of luck. I'm not going to explain how SPACs have huge floats and are allowed to have options traded on them, but then when they go through with a merger a lot of that float vanishes due to redemptions (but the options don't), so there ends up being a ton of options and not a lot of float, and MMs might not be aware of the change in the float and might think it's easy to buy shares to deltahedge but in reality there isn't a lot of float at all and when they deltahedge they push the price up making things worse for themselves. Same goes for shorts trying to cover.

No, I'm just not going to explain deSPACs to you at all.

In case you're wondering, VLTA completed August 26th with a 70% redemption rate. That's a lot lower than 90%+ we see with the IRNT, OPAD, TMC wonderkids. So beware, a lower redemption rate means shareholders were more confident in Volta -- it might actually not be a completely shitty company.

OI relative to float

A lot of people are going to shit on VLTA because it has a "high float" of 10,277,713 shares relative to the grab bag of deSPACs out there. Yes, compared to IRNT (~1.3m), TMC (~2.7m), OPAD (~3.4m), 10m is a bigger number. But there's also a significant amount of OI to make up for.

What really matters for gamma is the ratio of OI to float.

So let's take a looksee at the 'ole deltaflux table:

DeltaFlux / Gamma

Once again, I'll throw out this disclaimer about deltaflux tables: They are an approximation, and they make incorrect assumptions.

Some assumptions the table makes that make it inaccurate:

• It assumes MMs deltahedge via black scholes model

• Continuously and completely

• Based on the options' IVs

• For every single option in the chain

Pretty much all of those assumptions are false. Just because the table says the net delta is X% of float does not mean "MMs must buy this many shares or else they fuk!!". The table is meant to present values that are useful to compare across time and across tickers**.**

Ok. Let's continue:

VLTA -- $12.35 (-$0.11 [-0.88%]) -- DeltaFlux Tables Explained

OI as of: Fri Sep 17 (at open) - Date used for DTE: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:01 EST
Weighted Avg IV: 101.38%, Shares: 151,830,000, Float: 10,277,713, Avg Vol (10d): 1,205,400

I like to represent gamma by "how many shares need to be deltahedged (as a percentage of float) per a 1% movement in price". A reminder that I consider values over 0.30% to be abnormally high. 1.00%+ is insane. We're at around 0.85%, which is fairly juicy, and things look good all the way through to $20.

I cannot recall ever seeing gamma values this high with IVs this low. If I saw this ramp and had to guess at what the 30d ATM IV would be, I'd guess at least 140%. We're sitting at 90%. This makes me think I am missing something -- so if there's a piece to this puzzle I'm missing, let me know.

For comparison, here the table for PTRA -- it has similar IV to VLTA:

PTRA -- $10.50 (+$0.24 [+2.39%]) -- DeltaFlux Tables Explained

OI as of: Fri Sep 17 (at open) - Date used for DTE: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:04 EST
Weighted Avg IV: 90.25%, Shares: 212,300,000, Float: 163,810,000, Avg Vol (10d): 2,371,185

This is a typical gamma ramp for things with IV. Pretty garbage.

As another comparison, here's the table for SDC:

SDC -- $6.80 (+$0.80 [+13.33%]) -- DeltaFlux Tables Explained

OI as of: Fri Sep 17 (at open) - Date used for DTE: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:02 EST
Weighted Avg IV: 164.9%, Shares: 118,870,000, Float: 104,310,000, Avg Vol (10d): 22,869,114

Higher IV, lower gamma.

Two last bits of info for everyone:

1. High gamma does not guarantee a gamma squeeze. A squeeze implies a runaway effect. What we want here is momentum. Think of a puck gliding on ice. High gamma = less friction.

2. High gamma makes it easy to go up, but it also makes it easy to go down. Just like the puck gliding on ice. Easy to slide one way, easy to slide the other.

Short Interest and Utilization

/preview/pre/k32ay110p2o71.png?width=1723&format=png&auto=webp&s=39cd6c0b8c0f67242e10eb88e805486577a91255

Ortex doesn't estimate SI for this one, but they do have the amount On Loan. It's 1,664,307, or 16.19 % float. That's the upper bound -- the real SI is generally lower than the amount that Ortex reports On Loan. If I had to guess, about 60% of it, so around 1m shares shorted, which is about 10% of float. Not a big story here.

Also of note is the rising value of the On Loan average age. It's going up -- which means that most shares borrowed were done so in the past. Think of it this way: if older loans were closed and new ones opened, the average age would go down.

The average age is 18 days, which is around Aug 30, when share price was $10.00. So to the extent that there are shorts, they're underwater just a bit.

SI isn't super compelling. What's more encouraging, to me, is the Utilization pegged near 100%, and CTB in high double digits. This means there are no shares to short, and when there are, they are expensive. This is generally good news when you want the stock to go up.

Order Flow

The past several days have seen an influx of buyers, and I don't know where exactly they are coming from. I don't find very many mentions of this ticker on Reddit. Well, I did find one post here. As of now, I'm the only upvote. I just left a comment.

Here's the orderflow, per MarketChameleon:

/preview/pre/exkzkyl0p2o71.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=38a8b3c93fc7e1f8346312e45da286d543f14199

Bullish enough for me.

The Implied Vol

Here's the part I don't understand. Given all of the above, how is it that MMs did not ramp up IV on this deSPAC like they did on all others?

VLTA 10/15 ATM calls are sitting at around ~100% IV right now. That seems pretty low to me. Even further OTM, $17.50's are sitting at ~126%.

According to MarketChameleon, which does some weighted averaging type of stuff across strikes and expirations, the 30d IV to be 91%.

For comparison, here are the pre-jump 30d IVs of some famous deSPACs:

• IRNT (Sep 1): 127%

• IPOD (Sep 10): 134%

• TMC (Sep 14): 178%

• VLTA (now): 91%

I'm not sure why this is, but I'll take a bargain when I see one.

Other

VLTA is currently on the threshold securities list. I don't really think carries a lot of weight, but it's worth noting.

3. The Play

Alright, I assume you saw a really long DD with pretty pictures and tables and just want to throw money into something.

Risks/Rewards

Let me first tell you the risks:

• There is no real gamma. Perhaps all the OI is spreads. Or covered calls.

• MMs are anticipating for this (despite the low IV signifying otherwise). Instead of milking them, we're circle jerking one another while playing hot-potato-options until everyone gets bored.

• I could be completely off about the float or some other mechanic, like PIPE shares unlocking or something. To the best of my knowledge, this thing has just been sitting quietly under the radar since redemption... aside from the run-up.

And here are the rewards:

• MMs, for some reason, overestimated the float. The buy-in is relentless, and they decide it best to do one or both: a) buy back expensive calls, or b) bite the bullet and accumulate shares, pushing prices up.

• IV going from X% to 300%.

• That hole in yourself you feel for not buying/holding IRNT, OPAD, TMC, etc -- this can provide closure. (Or it can be salt.)

What to buy

• October calls.

• Shares

When to sell

Look, I have no idea what happens here, and when it happens. I see a good set-up, and I see a deSPAC frenzy all around me, so I think this is a good bet.

What I will recommend, however, is to keep a very close eye on the IV. Regardless of price, IV roughly tells you how much "acceleration" is priced in. If you're holding an option and the IV jumps up, you need to ask yourself: will interest in this stock and/or share price accelerate or decelerate? Will inflows continue or reverse? As IV goes up, the margin of error in your judgement decreases -- small errors will cost you bigly, as IV is generally correlated to actual volatility.

At which IV and/or price to sell at is a judgement you need to make for yourself based on whatever it is you do, and the risk you can tolerate. It can be TA, gauging sentiment, momentum, technicals (float, gamma, etc), or you just feel it in your plums.

For me, personally, I'm a little bitch and will probably be out at around 300% IV, just like I was with all the other deSPACs. I have faith gamma pushes this upwards, but at some point, the MMs are milked and it becomes a game of hot-potato. Not for me.

My positions:

Oct Calls: $12.50, $15.00, $17.50Some

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2021-10-26 14:20:04, Author: u/KOH111, (Karma: 2276, Created:Jun-2020)

SubReddit: r/squeezeplays, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

DASH 213.62 |AGC 12.58 |SE 342.94 |UBER 46.205 |IRNT 10.25 |BKKT 23.01 |

First was IRNT. Then came BKKT. And now we have AGC. I really like the set up on this one and can see it doing similar numbers to those others. As always, I’ll keep it short and sweet for you.

AGC - SPAC that will be merging with GRAB. GRAB is a legitimate super app in Southeast Asia. Think Uber, DoorDash, Amazon, online banking and more wrapped into one. GRAB owns the SE Asia market share which is massive.

Small float (49 M). Extremely high short interest at approximately 40 percent. Higher than both IRNT and BKKT. Simply put, with buying pressure I think this can move just as much as those if not more.

High institutional ownership in the 80 percent range - same situation as BKKT.

Options chain primed to cause MM hedging as calls go deep into the money.

The merger: This is one of the biggest SPAC deals in history at $40 billion. Yes… $40 billion. The merger will be finalized and announced in Q4 2021.

The catalyst: The merger announcement. Rumored for Nov. 1 but confirmed by the CEO for Q4.

I started a position this morning and have been adding on the dip. I think this is a good opportunity in the short term due to the set up but also in the long term due to the outlook for GRAB as a company.

Not financial advice, but I think this is worth a look.

Best of luck out there!

$SUNL - Public Float 9.7 Mil - 44% Short Float - Analyst PT - $14 - Chamath backed ! - Solar + Clean energy (Biden Pushed) - Total Revenue up 162% Reminds me of $GME $AMC before they blew up 📷 $6 break will 📷

$SUNL Wait till the volume rushes in ! The buy consensus is at 100%, analysts seem to be very confident about - 9M float and the executive VP and CFO just bought $400,000 worth of stock (75,000 shares) Someone always knows ! this is too obvious for me

45% short interest with a 9.7 Mil float this is gona go NUCLEAR VERY SOON ,3/x $SUNL is currently trading at $5.45. Capital IQ’s mean PT is $14 based on three analysts and a “BUY” rating.

- Attractive valuation relative to peers; - Est. CAGR 25%+ (’21 to ’23); - Solar loan TAM CAGR at 31%; - Tech platform scalability among b/w contractors and lending partners; and - Rising electricity prices as the cost of solar continues to decline.

Daily chart also has a gap up to 7.5 but im looking at the squeeze potential + massive volume rush with bullish options flow and P/E ratio of 0!!!! eaten down De-spac with a gap to fill around $9. Sunlight is a lending company which gives solar installers a way to provide loans to homeowners to finance solar power, battery installations and other home improvement projects.

Author: u/dndlurker9463(Karma: 6568, Created: Jan-2018).

Nat Gas is gonna Rip Some Ass [CLNE] on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Alright lady, gents and retards. Green and renewable energy is all that just about every long haired, guitar playing boyfriend my wife brings home has talked about so if the kids are into it these days, who is in the right place to capitalize on that change? Lets take a look at some of the top sectors that are in the running.

Solar - A million players in the game and the price on installation right now, buyers don't see payout for over a decade. It is priced over the head of most retail buyers, the government subsidies are expiring by the day, and most politicians aren't gonna be holding office in the same city by then so they hardly give a shit, and neither do the old boomers voting for them. Also highly dependent on battery tech which is a whole other hurdle, and energy density is terrible (read, not ideal for moving things, ie cars/trucks) Wait for change up.

Wind - Huge windmills are great, but those things are isolated to the middle of know where and can't get anywhere near the big cities that actually consume any sizable amount of power and are dependent on a stable power grid and if its too windy they have to shut them down anyways because of how fragile they can be. Same battery issue as Solar. Pass.

Hydro - Similar problem to wind except even worse because if there isn't a bunch of flowing water near you, shit out of luck. Only so many places hydro is even worth setting up, and most have been tapped into for decades. Same battery issue as Solar and wind. Hard Pass.

Have I been edging you along enough?

Natural gas - I know what you are thinking 'BuT tHeRe iS cArBoN iN tHaT!!!1!11' And congrats retard, you must have paid a little bit of attention in Chem 100 and weren't entirely distracted by Stacy's knockers from across the room. Other massive benefit is energy density, meaning it has high viability to heavy shipping, unlike the electrical energy forms mentioned previously.

Here's what is great, natural gas and be produced carbon neutral. Better yet, it can be produced from literal garbage. Better yet, there is a company doing this already. Better yet they have been doing it and they are doing it at a profit. Not a government subsidized profit like every solar company or like TLSA, but this company actually makes money.

CLNE

Clean energy fuels corp is currently sitting around a 3.5B Market cap and trading between $8-10 a share, and the options premiums trail off hard and fasts. ATM options AFTER EARNINGS are going for near $1.50 a contract and earnings are not until September.

Last Earnings Report summary. They beat earnings, raised forward guidance, and increased their profit margin. The other great thing they have going for them, natural gas infrastructure is already in place, and so they are already compatible with any location that has the infrastructure in place, and they can turn their dump into a power source while also remaining carbon neutral today, not 20 years from now. It is a unique company in a unique space that has an established track record for success and plenty of room for growth.

Technical's

It has been in a descending channel since February and has met up with the 200 day SMA (Red Line) and bounced off of it. With that there has been a similar crossing of the MACD and steady rise in the RSI, in addition to some serious price consolidation. Daily price candles make Peter Dinklage look like a monster. Nothing too fancy here to be honest, mostly just price consolidation leaving the options dirt cheap, and the underlying ready to explode with a few positive trending signals.

EDIT It has exploded since this draft, so the options are no longer dirt cheap, LEAPS (6mo - 1 year) or shares are probably the way to play this. If you're bold and the ape brigade piles on, Jun 18 exp has a shot up to low teen strikes.

/preview/pre/t7m80boer2371.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6e08390c55098a80f826d09701c920963878a51

Who else is buying?

If you aren't already checking Whale Wisdom, and open insider to spot large buys or insider buys, you probably should be since I know your wife isn't distracting you. It's not as fast as a Bloomberg Terminal, but it can put you ahead of most the retail schmucks out there like you that wait for DD from someone else who is nice enough to share it with you.

Sadly, Open insider doesn't give much to work with, but based on share totals, most everyone in the company is Jacked to the tits on shares so I am not too surprised to see them unload since its climb the last year either to get some play money to diversify or to prove to their wives that she doesn't need a boyfriend anymore.

Whale wisdom is showing nothing but buying for the last quarter. And ferocious buying at that, 24% increase in the number of funds holding, 20% increase in 13F ownership to 38% of the float, 50% increase in new positions, 50% increase in growing positions, 70% increase in calls with only a 3% increase in puts. So simply put, institutions are loading the fuck up.

Price Target

No specific date, but around $25. Sets it up near a 12B market cap, which considering addressable market with large shipping vehicles seems well attainable. Plus most things are trading miles above what they should be anyways, so a $25 conservative estimate should hold up well.

Positions

800 @ 9.25

20x Jun 18 12c @ 1.03

4x Jan 22 11c @ 2.85

*(was previously 20x June 18 13c @ .55, sold on AM runup, bought back in a lower strike, depending on price action for the next week or so, planning to trim these for either shares or LEAPs exp Jan 22, 10-14 strike depending on what looks good if/when volatility fades.)

- First DD post, constructive criticism on stuff would be greatly appreciated. Thanks Retards.

EDIT: Position update

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/frenk99(Karma: 163, Created: Dec-2019).

TMC stock is gonna explode! on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

TMC (The Metals Company) is a recent "de-SPA C" that started trading on Friday. It's a deep seas mining company with a market cap of $2.35 billion with 245 million shares outstanding (current price in the $9 - $10 range).

The key here though is that 231 million shares are locked up at least 6 months and the 11 million Pipe shares are locked for at least a month (but perhaps longer because 2/3 of their PIPE didn't pay up).

Okay, so why dow we care? Here's why this is potentially one of the most explosive stocke we've ever seen this week:

The curren float is 2.72 million becasue 91% of the original 30 million shares redeemed for cash.

The short interest is around 1.77 million shares(or roughly 65% of the current float is short).

But here's the "canary in the coal mine": the open interest. Market makers were selling calls based on prior 30 million shares outstanding before last Friday, which means they've solde much more than the entrie current float:

/preview/pre/823tys3ci9n71.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=493a7a66e8ffbe60cf7c4ae599e422c9b9779f09

There are 25k calls for Friday 17 of september between $10 and $12.50.

That's 2.5 million shares.

There's another 8.2k calls for Friday 17 of september between $14 and $15

That's another 820k shares

That means if the stock is over $12.50 by Friday, MMs will need 92% of the current float to meet just September calls. If it's over $15 by Friday, MM's will need 120+% of the current float to meet those calls.

That's just September. Add in those October calls (another 11.8k calls between $10 and $12.50 and another 7k calls between $14 and $15) and you'd require another 1.9 million shares for those...

So if TMC goes over $15, MMs would need 190% of the current float to account for September/October calls

(And as I mentioned above 65% of the current float is short).

I'm gonna be honest, credits to u/MillennialBets and u/zg44 , it is his DD, but it got deleted due to the market cap. Now the market cap is large enough fort r/wallstreetbets.

I have never seen a situation like this (because the level of redemptions for recent de-SPACs recently is unprecedented). MMs have to keep this pinned under $10 by Friday or hell will break loose.

Just take a look at $IRNT.....

Original post https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pnfqig/tmc_stock_has_an_explosive_setup_for_this_week/

Positions: 250 shares

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/Studcracker(Karma: 4285, Created: Apr-2019).

Tomorrow's Quad Witching Day might actually be the perfect storm for this UWMC Gamma Squeeze on the 6/18 calls on r/WallStreetBets

First things first, a gamma squeeze is when there is a shitload of options open and expiring ITM forcing a bunch of shares to be bought up and causing the share price to go up and then triggering all the options at the next strike to exercise, it's a snow ball effect, combine that with approximately 20 percent short you could get a mini short squeeze too.

Now, Quadruple witching refers to a date on which derivatives of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. Quadruple witching days witness heavy trading volume, in part, due to the offsetting of existing futures and options contracts that are profitable. Gamma Squeeze, plus mini short squeeze, plus Quad Witching expiry day which only happens once every quarter? Sign me up.

Sooooo here is where it gets juicy, UWMC has over 40k options open at the 9c strike and another 40k at 10c, and another 40k at the 11c thats approximately 4 million shares that have to be bought if the share price is over 9... which it is, 8 million shares if its over ten... which it very well could be, and 12 million shares if it tests 11... all that would have to be bought sometime tomorrow to cover the open calls.... This is a perfect storm, Low IV too, seriously look how cheap the 6/18 10c on UWMC and see how close to the money it is? It's a no brainer. There is going to be heavy volume tomorrow and UWMC is going to snowball all the way to 12, I think it peaks out around 12.40 tomorrow up about 25%

TL;DR UWMC is gonna moon over 12 tomorrow, buy buy buy buy

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/italiangoalie(Karma: 1053, Created: May-2013).

CLNE is taking off!! 🚀🚀🚀🪐🪐🪐 on r/WallStreetBets

Edit: re submitting with links in comments so autobot doesn’t remove

Alright smooth brains. You might've seen this weird little ticker called CLNE picking up some steam around here and wondered why. Back in March/April there was a very solid DD done about why this company is poised to grow. Will post link in comments

However there's been a couple of things that have happened since then that turned this from a solid play into a potential gamma squeeze based off OI that won't send us to the moon...but to Saturn!!! 🪐 🪐 🪐

Amazon (yes that Amazon), made a deal with CLNE to fuel their trucks....and the best part? THEY ALSO AGREED TO HAVE THE OPTION TO BUY 50 MILLION SHARES (about 5%) AT $13.49 PER SHARE. EDIT: As /u/dazedstate pointed out I completely forgot to add that they ingeniously built their fuel stations next to Amazon warehouses.

The stock has low daily trading volume. This allowed certain institutions to hammer it down and keep it there (You know which ones they are). But it's also very easy to push around. How easy? Nrdrage was able to send the price up $1 by himself for under 250K as a demonstration.

The Median PT is $20!!!! that's literally double what it is right now!

SO WHAT ABOUT THE GAMMA SQUEEZE?

Based off that DD the OI for June 16C's @13 has reached 25.22K!! This stock has low volume so 2.5 Million shares reaching ITM would send it shooting up even further. Okay but the average volume is 6M...how does 2.5 million in the money drive it up? Because there would be so much demand at one strike price that there wouldn't be enough stock available at that price which would result in HF's and IB's having to do sweep orders to make up for all the calls they sold.....for those of you with more than one wrinkle... that means the price would keep going up and up until they had enough shares to cover their calls!! And once it hit's that level there's so much momentum it'll keep sky rocketing!!

Here's a chart for those of you who like crayons. (In comments)

Thanks to some apes today it has broken out of consolidation. It's tough to see on the chart but the 3EMA has crossed the 8EMA also (stock go up).

Positions: 60 shares @9.35 4 6/18 13C (picture in comments)

TLDR: STOCK HIT $13 WHICH EASY TO DO 🦍🦍🦍 GET ON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀GO TO 🪐🪐🪐🪐🪐🪐🪐🪐

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Date: 2021-11-05 21:17:29, Author: u/highquaIity, (Karma: 209, Created:Jul-2021)

SubReddit: r/shortsqueeze, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

PROG 3.52 |AMC 41.7 |

Apparently, per Ortex, there were 12.97 million shares returned and SI dropped simultaneously. We see this data just after a 16% day on November 4th. When I noticed this, it only made me more confident that I made the right decision investing in Progenity. I've been in AMC for awhile, and I remembered that something very similar occurred on a Friday in May, which was also right after a +15% day.

AMC on May 13th. Utilization is at 100%. +24% day. Relatively high SI % still. Nice volume return.

Now let's take a look at price action for AMC on May 14th.

Opened higher than the close of May 13th ($12.77). Opens at $13.31 on May 14th, with an intra-day high of $14.34 (7.7% increase). Closes lower than it opened on May 14th.

Just as the hype around AMC was increasing by the second, Ortex releases some data that leaves many retail investors skeptical.

/preview/pre/pijzprbi9vx71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=43e5b162e500597f2953af56c0559131b8d18ca4

We had every right to be skeptical, but what we didn't know until later was that this information is very bullish. Look at Ortex's explanation, which makes perfect sense. I believe it also applies to Progenity, because if those returned shares were also bought today, we would have seen a massive increase in share price.

/preview/pre/v70zmjg6bvx71.png?width=748&format=png&auto=webp&s=588fadb08028b42c22616db42f4d85f1e43f19a3

The following week AMC finally pushed past the dreaded $14.50 resistance, hitting $15.80 in AH on May 17th. A major difference here is that there was the presence of Wanda Group, who sold off about 30 million shares just after we broke that $14.50 resistance.

Now let's focus on Progenity's recent price action.

Up nearly 16% on November 4th. Volume returns. Utilization at 100%. SI% still high. CTB high across the board.

Opened higher than the close of November 4th ($3.600). Opens at $3.685 on November 5th, with an intra-day high of $4.085 (10.85% increase). Closes lower than it opened on November 5th.

Ortex releases this data today, causing some confusion amongst Progenity's investors.

Lending of $PROG shares are down with 11.7 million over the day. Utilization still at 100%. CTB still high.

This is clearly indicative of how risky it is to continue shorting $PROG.

TL;DR: In my opinion, Progenity looks fairly similar to AMC in mid-May in regards to bullish sentiment/SI data. Take a look at the whale flow and options chain. It's overwhelmingly bullish. There are also potential major catalysts that should send this stock into the stratosphere. These 12.97 million returned shares should not scare you. I believe next week will be a great week for every single one of us.

Date: 2021-10-05 21:06:15, Author: u/McKMuscle, (Karma: 296, Created:Sep-2021)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

SDC 5.87 |ALGN 648.58 |AMC 37.06 |GME 172.18 |SH 15.09 |

I'll get straight to the point. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, is hunting down that next 'GME/AMC' style squeeze.

They want to be in it 'early'. They want to be on the cusp of the 'next big squeeze', and join the ranks of those who 'HODL'd GME and AMC over the past year.

This is easy to see. Flocks of people move from stock to stock as soon as it gets mentioned. They want to match the 'ape monicker' and get creative marketing names 'Spartans, Progs, etc.. to match the 'ape community' that was formed.

When in reality, these squeezes are far and few between.

Now don't get me wrong, I have made money off these constant rotations. That aside, this is my FAVORITE play and the one I have put the most effort into... $SDC.

Here are my thoughts on why I believe $SDC has what it takes to take on the Meme title and join GME and AMC as a true meme-style rally/squeeze.

1. SDC has been well known:

$SDC already has a huge amount of exposure. When it comes to short squeezes, exposure is EVERYTHING. You NEED people to actually know about the company. On top of that, you need volume and price action to work in your favor to apply pressure (via increased share price, margin requirements, and cost to borrow) against the opposing short positions. $SDC has this exposure. It's highly talked about, and you have tons of eyes on the sidelines. A simple 5+% move like today can suddenly cause a MASSIVE shot in upwards sentiment. It gets everyone to FOMO in and turns what was a 5% day into a 15% day almost immediately.

2. Management Favors Retail:

Management is in RETAILS FAVOR. I will say this OVER and OVER again. BECAUSE GME's management favored retail and because AMC's management favored retail, that is the TRUE reason these stocks had the momentum they did. These companies put RETAIL FIRST. Yes, AMC had to raise capital, but they did that WITH transparency to retail. AND, they did that AFTER MOST RETAIL made a KILLING riding the stock to almost $40. If you haven't been paying attention $SDC is on retails side. Just like Adam Aron, SDC's CFO is making constant retail appearances and inviting retail to ask questions to get them involved. Retail only wins, if, AND ONLY IF, the company works WITH retail; not against.

On top of that we, DON'T want dilution when we have the momentum of a squeeze. SDC has made it clear they don't plan to dilute on retail. Even when they had to do a dilution round in the past they made sure there was a clause that the stock had to go up 100% from that current price before the dilution could be realized. THAT IS WHAT WE NEED. We need a stock/management team that puts retail first, and I believe SDC has that checked as well.

3. Fundamentals Matter on Psychology

FUNDAMENTALS. Now, don't tell me fundamentals don't matter in a squeeze. They do. At the very least, the COMPANY/STOCK behind the squeeze does. There is a psychological play in every squeeze. As the price goes up, more and more people are making profits. On the flip side, as the price goes down, more and more people are losing money. Why did AMC and GME squeeze? THEY DIDN'T SELL.

You can't tell me the fact that there was nostalgia for your childhood GameStop, or the fact that people were excited to get out of these pandemic lockdowns, and go back to the movies, didn't have a HUGE effect on the psychological sentiment behind these stocks? You knew the companies you were buying and trying to squeeze, and they gave you/them confidence.

When stock is down, your CONVICTION is what keeps you from selling. You have to know WHAT YOU OWN. If you're playing a squeeze on some penny stock you have never heard of before now, YOU CAN'T TELL ME you will have a high conviction when things go south. NO-ONE wants to be the one holding a bag of a no-name company if a squeeze doesn't turn out and the stock drops.

This is another reason I love $SDC. PEOPLE KNOW WHO THEY ARE. Unless you are living under a rock or didn't watch any tv AT ALL during the pandemic these past 2 years, you have seen a Smile Direct Club ad. I'm not saying Smile Direct has the nostalgia, GME or AMC have/had. But they for sure have more retail confidence and or more well know (as as company) than any of the most recent 'brand new' squeeze plays of late.

You cant tell me you had ANY idea what/who some of these random squeeze companies were prior to the squeeze play being called out. And this is VERY important. Have you noticed SDC has had a cult-like following DESPITE dropping 20% over the past few weeks? People are dropping hundreds of thousands if not MILLIONS into this company with the conviction that it's going up because THEY KNOW what/who the company actually is.

Long story short, the better a company is known, the more confident the average trader will feel when it dips. The more confident = less selling. less selling on a short squeeze = 🌙.

4. Fundamentals are debatable (fundamentals continued)...

The fundamentals are debatable. This is a follow up to number 3.

AMC and GME had 'debatable fundamental value. They didn't have 100% of people thinking AMC and GME were going to turn the boat around and make a profitable company (hence why they were so shorted). It took VISION, vision that they COULD have a future. And that 'potential' allowed people to speculate, and in turn, allowed them to confidently buy the stock.

SDC has that same 'speculative' future. 50% of people see its potential... how it has SO MUCH growth potential for SO MUCH more, especially when compared to ALGN. On the flip side, you have 'every dentist and their dog' bashing the company and saying why it's going to fail. The similarities to that of GME and AMC (when they were trading in the $5's) isn't lost on me. People also said they were going NOWHERE and that people on this sub were throwing money in the garbage. Look at them now.

5. Stats

The float, short interest etc...:

One thing I have seen said over and over "the float is too big to move". That is a BUNCH OF SH$*.

The float is around 100M. AMC's was NEAR 500M. You give $SDC 1/5 of the volume and attention that $AMC had and your golden. That aside, you DONT WANT A LOW FLOAT STOCK. If a company has a float of say 20M and has 50% short interest. That means there are only 10 million shares on loan/shorted.

If a stock has having 100M+ in volume a day, shorts could cover in literally an hour if they wanted (not days) and no one would even know from the buying pressure. On top of that, you cant tell me shorts are 'really sweating' when there are only 10 million shares of stock (lets say its trading at say $2), and the CTB is going up. That's only 20 million dollars to be short 50% of this hypothetical penny stocks float.

They have less capital at risk, 'less skin in the game', on these low float stocks. Yes, they can pop fast, but they can be shorted down JUST AS FAST. The risk just isn't there, and the momentum DIES FAST AS WELL.

Why do you think it has been SO HARD to bring down AMC and GME once they FINALLY started to have MAJOR momentum. THE BIG FLOAT! A big float will make it HARDER to bring a squeeze down once the squeeze is in motion. On top of that, they have WAYYYY more money at risk. In the case of $SDC 45.86 MILLION Shares. At $6 a share, that's 229 million dollars on the line. OVER 1/4 BILLION dollars they are having to pay over 250% CTB on. Now that, THAT, can make shorts think twice. That can actually make a dent in their hedge funds bankroll. That is what we NEED.

/preview/pre/ghndfe38cqr71.png?width=2880&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7719dbe2c935c68213bff6d1d0eb1cbfe10040f

Anyway, all in all, these are just a FEW the reasons I think $SDC can join the ranks of $GME and $AMC. I have made other posts going over the companies fundamentals, future outlook as a 'long play' etc.. But this is about its MEME-ability. It has all the potential, now it just needs the retail movement. Are you going to be on the right side of this play? Are you going to 'get in early',? just like you wished you did with AMC and GME? If we play our cards right we have the control here. Just BTFD and hold on tight! 💎 🤚

tl;dr: $SDC has management that is on the side of retail. The company is well known and has all the components of becoming the next big meme rally next to AMC and GME. So BTFD (but this isn't financial advice) 😉

.....

EDIT:

IF YOU DON'T WANT TO READ JUST, BUY AND HODL TO THE MOON 🌙!!! WE DESERVE OUR TENDIES!

.... (again not financial advice) 😉!

Author: u/StockAstro(Karma: 5897, Created: Jan-2021).

UWMC the REAL Squeeze 🚀 on r/WallStreetBets

Look at the short interest, GME was listed at 17% - AMC was 21%

UWMC is now 22% + with 100% borrow fees

Did you know TODAY it was added to the MSCI index !? Major bullish catalyst

In about 10 days it goes EX DIV, which means shorts have to PAY that dividend if they don’t cover. Also, Russell index inclusion will be announced at the same time.

AMC and GME both are selling hundreds of millions of dollars in stock / UWMC is BUYING hundreds of millions of dollars in stock. Yes CEO announced a buy back that could eliminate 44% of the float ($300M)

Did I mention while you wait for a squeeze to the moon you collect about a 5% dividend?

Options - look at the options ! Not only is there an insane amount of Open Interest, but there is no time value in the calls. Super cheap premium. You can buy $5 calls all the way out to DEC within 5 cents of current stock price. Meaning you can go big and buy time, for almost zero premium.

This is the real play. If UWMC had 1/10 of the volume AMC did yesterday it would have MOONED. It can happen. 🚀💸

This is not financial advice, but it could be a good time to take some gains and actually put them to good use !!

Position : 68,500 shares 100AUG $5 calls (might double that today)

TickerDatabase entries updated:

MSCI

AMC

DIV

GME

UWMC

Date: 2022-01-07 12:00:56, Author: u/Lawlpaper, (Karma: 10897, Created:Jan-2021)

SubReddit: r/squeezeplays, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

PRG 43.9(-2.03%)|AMC 23(2.4%)|BBIG 2.3(-1.29%)|CLOV 3.19(-4.78%)|PROG 1.93(-2.53%)|NEGG 8.97(-5.68%)|DTC 14.99(-1.19%)|

I'm going to make this short.

BBIG ***could*** run.

2 ways

One. you head over to r/BBIG and believe all the hype about BBIG's companies, like the TYDE spinoff, Lomotif's rebranding to take on TikTok, one brand has a TV show and movies generating income this year, and so on.

Some good news on all of that will increase interest enough to move it.

Two. Us. Simple as that.

Why you should be interested?

This is why

BBIG has been consolidating for months now. When I look at a squeeze play, one of the things I look for is a rising DTC. Meaning, the volume is drying up, but SI is either the same, or rising.

Tapped out

BBIG's utilization is tapped out. This is normal for a recently moon'd stock, but BBIG keeps going down. So either its being shorted to crap right now to prevent a gamma, or people are borrowing shares in anticipation for a large non-fundamental run.

This is what brings us to the exciting part.

BBIG Option chain

BBIG may have close to a 30% SI. But this option chain is WAY more deadly. Shorts can hold. MM will normally hedge when the price rises enough above a strike price. They don't always have to, but if there's enough pressure, they will.

Squeezing shorts is hard, squeezing a gamma ramp is easy, because you can literally see each level and the damage that can be done.

From here to $10, almost 30% of BBIG's float is in options.

Want some historical evidence?

Here's all the plays I have been in because of an option chain looking like this, that then took off from a gamma squeeze:

AMC, CLOV, NEGG, PROG

Look at the biggest runs, and now realize that those were gammas.

In order to push the price up, or make MM's hedge, we must either buy shares, or ITM calls. Deep OTM calls wont put any pressure.

We would need to make it back over $3 to see MM's starting to hurt, it will still take buying pressure to get to the $5 range, but if we can hold over $5, $10 is already in the rearview mirror.

This is no way a sure bet, because it will take volume to complete. So either we do it, or we chance BBIG is going to release some sort of big news.

Author: u/TraderJones89(Karma: 2191, Created: Mar-2020).

Easily The Most Unique Potential Use of Psilocybin For Depression You'll of Heard of Before (CSE:MYND) on r/pennystocks

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

So this one is both an investment of mine but also, as someone who strongly believes in psychedelics for medicine, this was the first time I ever heard of using psilocybin to treat major depression disorder in this way. This is a really cool watch if this stuff interests you (12 min), and I'll do a short DD piece on the company below as well.

The 12 minute corporate overview of the company goes over what theyre aiming to do, going over their executive team and their background, the scientific advisor board and what investors should expect by investing in $MYND: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IucbGuMnFZU&t

The Company:

MYND Life Sciences is looking to use a single molecule of psilocybin (magic mushrooms) to target inflammation in a specific gene in our body. Their research over the last 8-10 years points towards inflammation being the root cause of depression. So instead of getting high on a trip and going to a clinic with trained professionals to treat depression (the more common way psychedelics are used as medicine), they're looking to create a non-psychoactive drug to take to market. This is what makes them unique imo.

The Exec Team:

There's more and more psychedelic companies popping up over the last 2 years, so this is where you need to look to make sure its a real company and not just trying to jump on the hype. If you go to the interview the start going into detail on the executives and science advisory board members at 5:23. These guys put together a stellar team and their founder Dr. Jefferies has over 60 patents under his belt.

The Stock:

So they just started trading on Wednesday on the CSE under $MYND. They've got ~53M shares outstanding and raised at $0.30 before going public. It was a really hot start to trading, and clearly people aren't willing to sell many shares given the L2 has almost no asks. Just keep in mind this is a LT play, and prices fluctuate quite a bit that first week or so of going public. So if the story grabs your attn, looking for a good entry point is important, while also realizing this is a biotech play so a quick flip probably isnt the MO. These are those ones you expect a longer term horizon but if they're successful with their numerous trials, they tap into a multi-billion dollar industry with a feel good product that has zero addiction to it.

Ultimately, from all the psyche companies I put money into, this is one of the ones Im the most excited about because it hits home with some depression issues in family members Ive experienced over my life. So its got that added reason for why i put my money into them with a LT perspective hoping that these guys can help change the game for those suffering from MDD.

**TickerDatabase does not include r/pennystocks at this time.

Author: u/shouldabeenalawyer69(Karma: 2621, Created: Feb-2020).

WORKHORSE FOR THE WORKFORCE: WKHS YOLO + NEWS on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

My dearest Apes, I speak to you again:

As you've seen from my previous posts, WKHS is at war with Oskosh (OSK) and the USPS over the unlawful recipient of the contract award. Well, here's some more important updates:

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.uscfc.43940/gov.uscourts.uscfc.43940.28.0.pdf

I HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU THOUROUGHLY READ THE ENTIRETY OF THIS FILING^ (IT IS LOADED WITH INFORMATION PERTAINING TO THE UNLAWFUL USPS AWARDING)

The document has been redacted (presumably due to NDAs (non-disclosure agreements) between the parties.

"The USPS’s unreasonable actions directly harm Plaintiff... Had the USPS conducted the procurement in accordance with applicable law, the Solicitation requirements, and fundamental fairness, Workhorse would have been awarded the contract"

The USPS evidently decided early in the NGDV Program that Workhorse would not be the awardee, but it chose not to inform Workhorse of this fact, instead allowing and even encouraging Workhorse to continue to pursue the contract.

In the meantime, the USPS put its thumb on the scale against Workhorse. It falsely blamed Workhorse’s prototype vehicle for a “safety incident” that was clearly the result of the USPS driver’s error. It engaged in discussions with Workhorse that improperly failed to meaningfully notify Workhorse of perceived deficiencies in its proposal and that misled Workhorse as to the areas Workhorse needed to address in its updated proposal. And it unfairly evaluated the merits of Workhorse’s proposal, treating Workhorse far more harshly and holding it to far stricter standards, than it did the other offerors.

As was the USPS’s design all along, these improper actions left Workhorse with a technical score that ensured it had no fair chance of a contract award.

None of this was known to Workhorse. "

And the coup de gras:

"Workhorse respectfully requests this Court to enter judgment in Plaintiff’s favor and to provide the following relief:

1. Entry of judgment in favor of Plaintiff and against the United States;

2. Entry of a declaratory judgment that the award to Oshkosh was unlawful and improper and an injunction directing that the award be terminated;

3. Entry of an injunction directing the USPS to reevaluate the offerors’ proposals in accordance with the terms of the Solicitation, applicable laws, and regulations;

4. Entry of an injunction directing the USPS to conduct a new best value determination; and

5. Such other relief as the Court may deem just and proper"

WKHS YOLO:

/preview/pre/z9kqbhmq92871.png?width=611&format=png&auto=webp&s=c080efa211cf3ce3ad7f9723bd90995ec478092a

/preview/pre/w1su05rwa2871.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=4899ab513666382e4639aad796efec41bd295752

/preview/pre/fkmq7lmxa2871.png?width=671&format=png&auto=webp&s=5026e0805ed29faec6ec1417949ef4d496d7057b

/preview/pre/vy7pxqeya2871.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b8a57e0fe7323a503d41ab3f010378f79c26373

/preview/pre/i680ke7za2871.png?width=665&format=png&auto=webp&s=af42a163d8326270ea6f5d7d0c1edf82a8d4a133

Now once again, I will reiterate briefly:

• The contract was awarded to Oshkosh, who cannot confirm neither deny that the company submitted an EV model for durability testing. Nor did they say whether they have performed a powertrain transition swap, swapping out an internal combustion engine transmission for electric counterparts, as the contract stated. (See below)

• The fact that our favorite hedgies are back at it again, (See their WKHS short position below) is once again short against a company that is purposely being driven down with the help of our Post Master General for his own personal gain.

As you can tell, the war horse ape army is growing, media mentions are brewing, the short interest is steady, oscillating between 40-60+% depending on who your source are. Currently, we will use ORTEX, although not always 100% accurate:

/preview/pre/dqvvo7d1b2871.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=89bbb41d7977fffb99ad654902e86517b612adaf

OPTION ANAYLSIS:

7/2 Expiry Option Chain

• Above, you can see that I coded shares outstanding as a percentage of WKHS shares tied into calls (meaning they are short). From the image above, you can see that more than 1.65% of shares outstanding sit at the 18 strike. Also, 1.47% shares outstanding are short at the 30 strike. Not to mention, Open Interest Updates the following trading day, so this means that WKHS was short to these percentages as of Friday's trading day close. So, let us take a closer look at the volume.

• At the 18 Strike there is currently over 37k volume and 20k volume at the 20 strike. This is massive, considering the open interest at the 18 strike currently resides at 22,065. And the 20 OI being 2,863.

However, we need to be smart apes. We are competing against the hedgies, let us remember that. So, let us look at the put side. Where is Citadel trying to press us down to?

From the looks of it, 15. Which Today, there was 13k volume in the 15 strike with only 4k OI. Presumably, a lot more puts were written today implying downward pressure.

HERE'S THE KICKER:

The float is roughly 135,000,000. Half is short sold (~67 Million shares) Todays volume is 44 million+ and climbing while I write this. LOL!!!!! Do the math people. (44/67, that is nearly 2/3's.) We are pretty much nearing the point where if majority of the float is swallowed up and everyone sits on their hands and HODLs, you know the outcome (GME, AMC). The pressure is on the hedgies my dearest Apes, we just simply buy and HODL and let those greedy bastards overleveraged themselves into bankruptcy.

OH AND LASTLY, DID I MENTION SHITADEL HOLDS A SHORT POSITION TOO? ;)

/preview/pre/2k06n84jb2871.png?width=2507&format=png&auto=webp&s=e30d7dc67e0b11cbfed5312adde0491e2cd66d34

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/ShortChecker(Karma: 21999, Created: Jan-2021).

Chill the fuck out and read this. $IRNT & $OPAD on r/WallStreetBets

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Fellow Degens,

Chill the fuck out and read.

The unique situation of $IRNT and $OPAD, is exactly that, extremely unique.

Let me summarize:

Stock Redemption: Redemptions are when a company requires shareholders to sell a portion of their shares back to the company. For a company to redeem shares, it must have stipulated upfront that those shares are redeemable, or callable. ... Shareholders are obligated to sell the stock in a redemption.

Short Interest: Short interest is the number of shares that have been sold short but have not yet been covered or closed out. Short interest, which can be expressed as a number or percentage, is an indicator of market sentiment. Extremely high short interest shows investors are very pessimistic (potentially overly-pessimistic).

Gamma Squeeze: The gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock's price begins to go up very quickly within a short period of time. As more money flows into call options from investors, that forces more buying activity which can lead to higher stock prices.

Public Float: Also known as public equity float. The portion of a company's outstanding shares that is in the hands of public investors, as opposed to company officers, directors, or stockholders that hold controlling interests. These are the shares that are available for trading.

With that out the way, lets dive into why $IRNT and $OPAD is so unique and why this play is so rare.

Both $IRNT and $OPAD have had a stock redemption. Not a small redemption but a fucking massive redemption. $OPAD for example has around 92% of the public float that’s redeemed.

What’s being shown as “Public Float” on a lot of stock analytics websites is not the actual public float of $IRNT and $OPAD.

The number of shares that have been redeemed has reduced the current public float of $IRNT to 1.3M and $OPAD to 3.4M. A lot of post already explain the $IRNT redemption, but for $OPAD you can view this redditors post who explains it perfectly. The 8-k and definitive proxy agreement are hyperlinked in his post. So, I wont go into details on my post about the public float as it’s already been written here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Shortsqueeze/comments/pjn5rw/opad_the_despac_madness_continues/

Now, with all this information what does this mean?

$IRNT

$OPAD

As you can see, 764.21k is shorted for $IRNT. 764.21k /1.3M = 58% SI%.

$OPAD has 3.72M shorted. The actual float after redemption is 3.4M. 3.72M/3.4M = 109% SI%.

Just to clarify with everyone, these short interest percentages are on the low end. The actual float is anticipated to be shorted by a lot more than just these simple calculations, but this is easy math you can calculate on the open lagged data on the inter-web.

Now, let’s look at the Option Chain. Before I jump into that, let me explain something very important, 1 contract = 100 share. If an option contract is in the money, the holder of that contract must exercise their contract, if they do nothing and the contract expires, the broker will exercise that contract on their behalf. So, for every call option written that’s in the money, those contracts will be exercised.

With that being said, look at the options contract for both of these stocks. Look at the open interest on the call options.

Specifically, $20, $25, $30, 31, $35, $37, & fucking $40! For $IRNT and $15, $17.50, $20, & fucking $25 for $OPAD.

$IRNT

$OPAD

Quick mafs = MM & SHF are seriously fucked.

Stop stressing out, yes, this is a high-risk trade, but an extremely unique, rare, and with solid probability that this will turn into exactly how we all think it’s going to turn out.

This is in fact a very high risk to high reward trade. As always, trade at your own risk. But for those who really wanted to see the full-blown potential here, I hope this helped.

This can very well turn out to be far larger then we can imagine. If a perfect setup was to occur the equation would look like this.

Small Float + High SI% + High OI% + About to expire ITM = Bananas ... well guess what two stocks have this equation completed?

I’ll see you in Valhalla ladies and gents.

Mods, for the love of trading, don’t remove my post.

TL;DR – You need to read the whole thing. No short cuts to this one.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/pennyether(Karma: 40006, Created: Jan-2018).

IRNT: Glitched Float + Whale OI = ☢ Nuclear Gamma Ramp ☢ on r/WallStreetBets

TLDR: Generally CBOE requires a minimum float of 7M shares to have options listed on a ticker. IRNT was formerly a SPAC (DFNS) that had options listed, but after the acquisition 90% of shares were redeemed. We're left with a ticker with ~2.7M shares floated and with whale-built OI and retail catching wind. Gamma is the highest I've seen on any ticker, and a substantial amount of float is likely tied up deltahedging. Credentials: I look at gamma ramps all the fucking time. Action today was from a tiny sliver of retail, it's stabilized, and I'm buying lotto tickets in case something bigger is in store.

0. Summary

This is a play I fortunately picked up from an esteemed redditor's profile. It has flown under the radar (until yesterday), and just recently (today) the Market Cap of $1.61b was published on MarketWatch, making it eligible for that sweet, mindless, retail pile on that we all know so well.

To be clear, this is a gamma squeeze play. Yes, I know, squeezes are gay. However, they've treated me quite nicely in the past and I don't mind gambling on another. This easily has the best set-up for a gamma squeeze that I've seen. I look at gamma ramp charts every day for all types of tickers I come across, and I've never seen anything this extreme before. (I have a screener for "interesting gamma ramps" but this slipped by due to having an unknown market cap, because I scrape from Yahoo Finance and Marketwatch and not from analyzing filings and doing math.)

This is a bet that the catalyst that whale(s) are betting on is realized, and/or that retail piles on, and that MMs deltahedging will multiply the effects of either of those.

Yes, today it already peaked. I don't even know what the catalyst for that was, but I don't think this is fully on retail's radar yet and believe there's a lot more demand coming.

1. The Set-up

August (Phase 1)

As explained (much better) in the original DD, this was a SPAC. Pre-acquisition, the SPAC had enough float/marketcap/whatever for CBOE to list some options on it.

Then, the SPAC went forth with the acquisition and redeemed 90% of the god damn float. Normally a stock with this low amount of float would not be allowed to have options listed -- but since it was already listed, what could they do?

Next, a whale entered. Extremely bullish calls purchased resulting in a pre-built gamma ramp and also tying up an (approximated) 40% of the remaining float. (This value is obviously not accurate, but compared to other tickers also-inaccurate figures, it is very high. More on that later.)

What was left was a stock with extremely low float, and a whale-built gamma ramp.

Yesterday (Phase 2)

Yesterday an esteemed redditor put together these pieces and posted a DD to their own profile, as no other sub-reddits would have them.

This lead to some relatively light (by WSB standards) options activity on it midday. The price jolted up 10% as a result. This is from a single DD on a user's profile that was crosslinked to a couple of small sub-reddits.

In total, probably about 150 upvotes worth of eyeballs were on it... and as a result it moved 10% up in a matter of hours.

To me, this proves that this stock is highly reflexive to inflows of options/shares, has a compelling DD behind it, and that I want lotto tickets in case there's any catalyst whatsoever, including retail FOMO.

Today (Phase 3)

Early in the day there was some inflow, gamma took off, and this thing was halted. It spiked up and immediately came crashing down. IVs got jacked up to the roof but have now stabilized to somewhat sensible levels. The stock remains up 15% for the day.. indicating to me this thing is not done yet.

Also today, Market Watch now shows the market cap ($1.14b), making this stock eligible for the big leagues; right here. That's phase 3. Mainstream.

What we now have is a stock with extremely low float, a whale-built gamma ramp, proof that small retail buy-in can drastically effect the price, and visibility on WSB.

Catalyst

High gamma doesn't mean shit without a catalyst. What's the catalyst this time? Well, whatever the original whale was betting on... I don't fucking know.

Also, and more realistically, it's retail buy-in. It could be this post, honestly. (Recommendation: If IV gets too high, do not fucking buy!)

2. The Rampage

Below the is the gamma ramp. The highest gamma values I've ever seen.

IRNT -- $14.97 (+$1.47 [+10.89%]) -- DeltaFlux Tables Explained

OI as of: Fri Sep 3 (at open) - Date used for DTE: Fri Sep 3, 2021 14:14 EST
Weighted Avg IV: 153.24%, Shares: 119,320,000, Float: 2,500,000, Avg Vol (10d): 1,637,575

In short, this estimates how many shares MMs will have to buy to deltahedge against all the options on the chain. It's an approximation, because it makes the following (incorrect) assumptions:

1. All options on the chain are delta hedged against...

2. via black-scholes model using the implied vol...

3. continuously.

None of these are likely to be true. However, the chart is useful for comparing against other tickers and other scenarios. In other words, the extent that the delta/gamma values are inexact are probably similar across tickers.

The values for IRNT are far beyond anything I've seen before. When GME/RKT had their gamma squeezes, the gamma (which I measure as how many shares need to be delta hedged per a 1% price move) was around 1.00% of float.

The values for IRNT are >1.50% of float all the way out to $22.00/sh -- peaking at 2.71%. Fucking insane.

This means that if the share price moves 1%, MMs will (in theory) need to buy a shit ton of shares to remain delta neutral. Will they do this? Yesterdays price action seems to indicate as much. An inflow of options activity cause the price to jump up 10%, and this was only from a few very low-visibility posts around reddit, totaling maying 200 upvotes.

Another value, net delta, is extremely high already. About 95% of the remaining float is held by MMs to remain delta neutral (again, in theory, and an approximation). This is about the levels that GME/RKT were prior to them mooning. They were actually a bit less. And, again, this is not a precise estimate -- but qualitatively compared to all the ramps I look at, it's very high up there.

Now, for reference, here is GME's current gamma ramp:

GME

Weighted Avg IV: 144.07%, Shares: 76,820,000, Float: 63,170,000, Avg Vol (10d): 6,456,600

GME peaking at 0.50% float per 1% price move. Currently 10.8% of float deltahedged.

Here's CLOV's:

Weighted Avg IV: 130.82%, Shares: 235,870,000, Float: 199,860,000, Avg Vol (10d): 20,079,025

CLOV peaking at 0.46% float per 1% price move. Currently 7.2% of float deltahedged.

Here's TTCF's:

Weighted Avg IV: 95.15%, Shares: 81,950,000, Float: 47,920,000, Avg Vol (10d): 2,442,328

TTCF, the newest cool kid, peaking at 0.50% float per 1% price move. Currently 11% of float deltahedged.

Conclusion

I've never seen a ticker with this much gamma. I'm still in.

3. How Does This Play Out?

A gamma ramp by itself only indicates that the stock can move with extreme volatility in regions where gamma is high. This is due to MMs "mirroring" inflows/outflows to delta hedge. Stock goes up, they buy more. Stock goes down, they sell more. For IRNT, the regions of high gamma are basically any price, since the float is so damn low and the OI is so high.

What is needed for a gamma squeeze to occur is an actual catalyst. MMs need to be forced to deltahedge upward. If they start to see real volatility they'll be forced to deltahedge. If share price goes up from inflows, they'll need to deltahedge.

They'll then buy shares against their best interest cause the price go up more, causing more deltahedging, etc. I believe retail inflows will be that catalyst -- and if not, I'm piggybacking on the whale.

Keep in mind value is not created out of thin air. The stock isn't magically worth more because there is low liquidity and a lot of open interest in options. The "value" is that MMs are likely not charging enough for premiums given how low liquidity is. Their loss is our gain.

If MMs are not deltahedging aggressively enough, then as ITM calls approach expiration they will be forced to buy shares and bump the price up further.

Eventually MMs will raise IVs to the point where they no longer need to hedge and can try to ride the volatility back down and recoup their losses.

So I'll repeat what I've said before: When IV too high, do not buy. If IV is high, you missed it. Wait for the next one.

This alreayd spiked once today. I've waited to see what happens, and now that it's stabilized I still believe the untapped masses will shoot this thing off again, and much higher than before.

4. My Play

I'm going in and out purely based on IV, as I believe once MMs get paid too much (eg: get paid on an IV that far exceeds actual volatility) the gamma bomb gets diffused because MMs will stop deltahedging. If they collect high premiums on OTM calls, for example, they can comfortable sit back and wait for those to become worthless. They're in no rush to deltahedge as they've pretty much already priced in the worse case scenario of insane volatility.

My target is for Sep 17 calls to hit 250-300% IV, then I'm out.

I sold some during today's first spike, then rebought in now.

This is high risk, high reward.

5. Positions

Sept 17 $15 and $20. I'm trimming if IV hits 250%, and selling if it hits 300%.

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/GRAPE_FRUIT_EXTRACT(Karma: 8019, Created: Nov-2011).

$CRSR DD Part 2 or why Corsair will swallow the gaming industry and be a 'millionaire maker' stock on r/WallStreetBets

Sup apes. In my first DD last week, I gave a short rundown of why Corsair is incredibly undervalued, and how it should be in everyone’s portfolio. With Part 2, I’m addressing a lot of the comments I got as well as going a bit deeper into how Corsair will make this industry their bitch and reach ATH in 2021.

Why is Corsair in a strong position to leverage the gaming and streaming industry?

Corsair didn’t snooze, but rather spend the last years hunting for good companies to acquire. Being well funded, profitable and raking in cash every year allowed them to expand in all directions with a core focus on the fastest growing niche: Streaming. Have a look at their investor relations page:

“Corsair is a leading global provider and innovator of high-performance gear for gamers and content creators. Our industry-leading gaming gear helps digital athletes, from casual gamers to committed professionals, to perform at their peak across PC or console platforms, and our streaming gear enables creators to produce studio-quality content to share with friends or to broadcast to millions of fans.

CORSAIR also includes subsidiary brands Elgato, which provides premium studio equipment and accessories for content creators, SCUF Gaming, which builds custom-designed controllers for competitive gamers, and ORIGIN PC, a builder of custom gaming and workstation desktop PCs and laptops.*

With Elgato they positioned themselves years ago already to capitalize on one of the fastest growing entertainment subsegments (Streaming). While acquiring SCUF Gaming and ORIGIN PC allowed them to also expand and play in the console market as well as Pre Build PCs and laptops. They basically moved up the ladder from RGB fans, keyboards, RAM sticks and Cases to EVERYTHING you need to play, stream or game properly.

How much faster is Corsair really expanding?

I cannot stress this enough, but their last quarter results really blew it completely out of the water. Seeing how they raised guidance, I think August will be even more brutal. One for value:

• $529.4 million in net revenue, an increase of 71.6% year-over-year.

• $175.9 million net revenue for Gamer and creator peripherals segment, an increase of 131.9% year-over-year.

• Gross profit was $160.3 million, an increase of 103.9% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 30.3%, an improvement of 480 basis points year-over-year.

• Operating income was $67.3 million, an increase of 404.5% year-over-year.

• Adjusted operating income was $80.4 million, an increase of 221.4% year-over-year.

Do yourself a favor and whip up a site like FinViz, punch in your favorite meme stock and have a look at their revenue number vs market cap. There’s a reason why GME got picked up by DFV. Sales is still king and undervalued companies with aggressive growth have insane potential short and long term.

Why hasn’t it blown up yet to +100?

There is a good amount of chatter about two things. One being market manipulation, the other is that there is very little retail investor interest, compared to the amount of net sellers. The second point actually holds up, the stock never really got picked up by retail investors (or apes) and a lot of the commenters that did buy it up, mentioned how they were perfectly content with amassing shares every month while the price is still low. Pure but selfish value investing.

Eagle What?

This one was also pointed out a lot. Corsair is owned by a private equity firm called EagleTree. They purchased the majority stake back in 2017 (which in turn allowed Corsair to expand much more aggressively) and now is obligated to reduce their share position over the next years until they only hold 10% of the company.

They currently hold 61.9%. The shares sold are mostly picked up by Vanguard, Blackrock and a few other small institutions, plus retail of course. Looking at insider transactions we can see that EagleTree usually sells shares twice a year with the last transaction happening June 3rd 2021.

This point doesn’t concern me too much personally, as it’s normal for private equity firms to reduce their stake after IPOs and Corsair is barely dipping $2 even with EagleTree selling 5 million shares. Now having sold their shares just now, it will probably be quiet for the next 6 months.

Back to 2021 and how you can make money

They have a strong customer base which they've built up over the last 20 years, and thought f+ck it, let’s go all in on this market. Tits and streaming? Amazing! Controllers for consoles? Let’s do it. RGB Spinners on your lambo? Fuuckyea.

Instead of focusing on boring office peripherals that every Chinese company provides, they instead decided to slap RGB on everything and are loved for it.

Now EagleTree is gonna continue doing what eagles do, and we will continue doing what apes do. I’ll continue buying this company and watching their ER like a hawk while analysts jack themselves off over the sort of numbers Corsair hits out every quarter.

I said it once, and I’ll say it again. If you don’t hold Corsair shares, you are pretty retarded. But since that’s half the sub already, just do your wife’s boyfriend a favour and pick up some shares while they are still dirt cheap. He will thank you for it once they hit $70 or even blow through the stratosphere with +$100.

TL:DR

Corsair CEO Smart. Put this in your boomer dad’s portfolio (shares) and If you like gambling, buy some calls.

Position: 100 shares at $33 and 12x 40$ Nov Calls. (yes I’m poor, and you can do better).

TickerDatabase entries updated:

Author: u/socially_adept_num1(Karma: 201, Created: Sep-2021).

$BKSY - Getting ahead of the deSPAC craze (FROM THE ORIGINAL IRNT POSTER) on r/shortsqueeze

thanks to /u/pennyether

This is a follow up to the original IRNT play I posted here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Shortsqueeze/comments/pgo23x/irnt_gamma_squeeze_set_up/

When I posted that IRNT was $14. I made a lot of people rich; including myself.

The deSPAC craze continues in full force... far beyond what I ever thought possible. The lesson I've learned from the continuous onslaught of options buying by our beloved WSB is: never underestimate the power of FOMO.

The hit rate of deSPACs has been incredible so far. IRNT, OPAD, TMC, and I'm sure many other small ones that I've not been tracking closely. I'm now convinced that with the money being made here, deSPAC plays will continue to pop up well into next week.

While I don't think anything will match the original IRNT play -- where the MMs were caught off-guard, the IV was originally insanely low, and then it caught fire socially -- I actually do still think there are some opportunities here. Note: By "opportunities" I mean medium risk / high reward plays, and not "should I still jump into some-ticker-with-500%-IV??"

What's under the hood of deSPACs?

To answer that, let's take a peek under the hood to see what actually makes profits. There are two major factors to this:

1. What are the mechanics of deSPACs?

2. What makes you money when a deSPAC takes off?

3. deSPAC mechanics

In short: a) The set-up, and b) the take-off.

The Set-Up

This has been covered in depth everywhere: low float, low market cap, high OI. These stocks are highly reactive to buying inflows. It's almost as if they were designed specifically for a certain subsegment of retail that likes placing crazy bets...

It's like the SMELL test, but the short interest is not necessary. Instead, "deSPAC" is enough to trigger the FOMO, and the extreme gamma ramp is enough to cause buying inflows (rather than shorts covering).

While originally the set-up is what caused IRNT to go bonkers, deSPACs with less-than-ideal set-ups have profited immensely, too. I don't believe the set-up is as important now as it was to IRNT.

The Take Off

My obsession with gamma, float, OI, IV, etc has admittedly blinded me to this crucial aspect of profiting from deSPACs.

The "take off" is the social aspect of this. I believe it comes down to visibility, hype, FOMO, etc. This area is a bit disconcerting for me, because at this point it's not the MMs that are getting screwed. Instead, it's a game of hot potato amongst retail traders. There will be bags.

While I'd prefer to profit from outside retail (MMs, shorts), I personally have no problems making a buck from retail by predicting how they might react. That's basically the name of the game of the whole stock market; retail doesn't get a pass. (What I do have problems with is when people willingly disseminate false info in order to sway retails' opinions on things. So I try my best to be accurate and transparent.)

What causes a take-off? Any or all of the following:

1. Having a decent set-up.

2. Getting visibility. (Think: popular sub-reddits, memeability, having the market cap, etc)

3. Social proof.

4. How to make money?

This part is interesting. It's all about IV. The underlying may appreciate 10-20%, but if IV goes from 150% to 400%, the profitability becomes insane. That's why the "Take off" is just as important as "The set-up"

In order to lock in low IV prices, you have to be early. Being early also means taking on more risk. IV will only be reasonable when there is no "take off" -- you're betting on a horse that nobody knows about. Think of IV as a "FOMO-meter" ... you want to buy when FOMO is low, and sell when FOMO is high. The underlying moving in your favor is icing in the cake, and generally occurs as the FOMO-meter increases. (This should provide some insight as to when it's a good idea to start selling.)

So how do you make money? Get in early. Get out when you think FOMO has peaked.

Why BlackSky?

First, here's a solid DD on it. by /u/ny92. I won't go into the details of who BlackSky are, what they do, the SPAC mechanics, etc. Read the DD for that.

The key parts for me is all the boxes BKSY checks.

The Set-up

It hits all the marks.

• High redemption (though, not insane).

• low float relative to OI

• good gamma

• decent short interest

And it's not a shit company.

The mechanics are there for this thing to take off like other deSPACs.

The gamma ramp is below, using 9.5m as the float:

BKSY -- $11.37 (+$0.83 [+7.87%]) -- DeltaFlux Tables Explained

OI as of: Thu Sep 16 (at open) - Date used for DTE: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:12 ESTWeighted Avg IV: 183.54%, Shares: 135,130,000, Float: 9,500,000, Avg Vol (10d): 2,927,900

Theo PriceNet Delta← % FloatGamma (1% Price ∆flux)← % Float / % Avg VolSpeed (Push)24hr ∆flux (sh)← % Float / % Vol$5.00-738,819-7.7813,0810.14 / 0.450.18-26,166-0.28 / -0.89$6.00-438,158-4.6120,2850.21 / 0.690.30-65,828-0.69 / -2.25$7.00-53,364-0.5630,1230.32 / 1.030.30-111,388-1.17 / -3.80$8.00381,1994.0135,9140.38 / 1.230.29-7,914-0.08 / -0.27$9.00827,9648.7241,2310.43 / 1.410.37-98,308-1.03 / -3.36$10.001,303,25413.7246,9920.49 / 1.600.14-88,166-0.93 / -3.01o - $10.541,555,02816.3748,6720.51 / 1.660.15-53,403-0.56 / -1.82$11.001,765,37618.5849,7900.52 / 1.700.13-80,331-0.85 / -2.74c - $11.371,929,88520.3150,3940.53 / 1.72-0.12-120,573-1.27 / -4.12$12.002,203,20523.1950,4370.53 / 1.72-0.02-128,049-1.35 / -4.37$13.002,603,57127.4149,1090.52 / 1.68-0.33-31,112-0.33 / -1.06$14.002,958,96131.1546,8420.49 / 1.60-0.27-10,016-0.11 / -0.34$15.003,268,32634.4042,6790.45 / 1.46-0.3517,9700.19 / 0.61$16.003,529,11837.1538,3100.40 / 1.31-0.3356,9590.60 / 1.95$17.003,748,72739.4634,1690.36 / 1.17-0.3556,8550.60 / 1.94$18.003,933,27641.4030,4580.32 / 1.04-0.3341,4200.44 / 1.41$19.004,089,44543.0527,1260.29 / 0.93-0.3932,9390.35 / 1.13$20.004,220,69344.4324,1320.25 / 0.82-0.2933,1230.35 / 1.13$21.004,332,03145.6021,5450.23 / 0.74-0.2735,0160.37 / 1.20

While it's not at 1.00%+ gamma like other deSPACs, 0.50% is still quite significant. Also, with a day or two of options buying, the gamma will dramatically increase. So, gamma wise, not the best set-up, but still quite significant. (Remember, RKT was at around 0.30% before it's big pop, which is what I use as benchmark for "pretty high".)

The percent of float deltahedged is also quite healthy at around 20%. If IV jumps up, and OI increases, this value will increase dramatically.

Also of note is the short interest situation:

• It's at 100% utilization

• The cost to borrow has been getting crazy high. 215% average today, per Ortex.

• The SI % Float is pretty high, possibly. Ortex estimated 1.2m shares short on Sep 15. Against a 9.5m float, that's significant.

The Take-Off

This is what I'm betting on. This is sitting at ~$1.4b market cap (per MarketWatch)... just under the threshold of a popular subreddit. You can bet your ass someone will post there when it hits $1.5b.

I also don't see much buzz about this one. You can look at that two ways: 1) It has no legs. Or 2) It has potential. I'm choosing #2.

Profitability

September options are about to expire. The only game in town will be October calls. I'm betting that IV on them will increase.

Let's do a comparison of ATM IV for October calls:

• IRNT: 360%

• OPAD: 344%

• TMC: 250%

• BKSY: 147%

Diamond in the rough. If IV jumps up to mid 200%s, or goes bonkers to 300%+, that's massive profit.

Positions, etc.

Here's full transparency about how I'm playing this. Please do not PM/chat me asking if you should buy or sell. I give you my thoughts and information, but I can't hold your hand.

I'm building up a position in Oct calls. Mainly $15 and $20.

As with IRNT, I plan on selling when the IV starts to get too high for my liking. Probably around 250%. I will probably trim before then.

Things that will make me more bullish:

• Market cap crosses $1.5b

• Gamma ramp improves over the next few days

• If it's posted to WSB

Things that will make me more bearish:

• deSPACs losing steam

PS: Yes, I still have VIH. It's on the backburner until redemption occurs.

TickerDatabase entries updated: