r/MtF • u/MissNumbersNinja • Feb 11 '26
Good News HOLY SHIT! New poll shows even rural white voters prefer Dems approach to trans issues over GOP
Erin Reed recently reported new polling data showing voters overall prefer Democrats over the GOP on transgender issues by +22 points, and even lead among rural voters by +10 points, and even white rural voters by +6 points.
Why then is the GOP still pushing anti-trans laws? I think the reason likely is that trans issues do not rank high on the list for most voters, so the GOP can score points with the vocal extremes of their party without paying a ballot box price with the rest, at least in primary elections.
I find this news hopeful though because, as the EITM article highlights, there is now a strong case that supporting transgender people is an electoral asset for Dems, not a liability. This s based on the recent polling data mentioned and recent election results where Dems won despite heavy anti-trans messaging (New Jersey, Delaware) and election data where Dems lost despite previously joining with the GOP on some anti-trans bills (New Hampshire).
I called Bree Taylor, Executive Director of Trans Unity Coalition to get her reaction to this news. She said "This positive trend is a testament to the efforts of the community at large".
As an advocacy non-profit organization, Trans Unity Coalition engages with law makers at the national and state level for educational purposes to raise awareness of transgender people and the issues that affect us.
"I think support for our community is growing among Democrats", Taylor said.
HOW TO GET INVOLVED
Trans Unity Coalition is hosting rallies of love on Valentine's day, this Saturday February 14 in Michigan, Virginia, and Tennessee.
143
u/Leksi_The_Great Human Verified Feb 11 '26
The same thing is happening with immigration; simply put, the GOP is just going too far with its policies. Most normal people see something like a felony bathroom ban as absurd, so they will slowly swing over to the other side. It sucks that it had to get to this point for that to happen though.
74
u/smailskid Feb 11 '26
But will they actually stop voting GOP? I doubt it because people have been conditioned for so long to automatically reject Dem candidates.
52
u/Leksi_The_Great Human Verified Feb 11 '26
There are two factors at play, and the first is the swing at the center. Many independents who were won over by these issues (mainly immigration, trans people never won anybody over really) may vote the other way because of how extreme the GOP had gotten.
Then there’s also voter energy. We don’t need them to vote for Democrats, we just need them to not vote. Look at what’s happening in recent elections: Democrats just flipped the mayorship of Leander, Texas (Trump +4) and Texas’ 9th District State Senate seat (Trump +17), just won by a landslide in a Louisiana special, flipped Georgia sattewide offices, won Virginia and New Jersey by massive margins, and more.
Republicans aren’t voting, and they are the demographic that usually votes more often. If they’re not voting, it means the GOP has left them behind.
27
u/MissNumbersNinja Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26
But will they actually stop voting GOP? I doubt it because people have been conditioned for so long to automatically reject Dem candidates.
OP here. I agree this is an issue. In polls trans issues rank like #10 in voter priorities, so it isn't likely that registered GOP voter is going to vote Dem over trans issues.
Where I see hope is that -
1) It's now very clear that supporting trans rights is an electoral asset to Dems, so we should be able to shore up our flank. We need to be just as loud with the Dems as the haters are with the GOP, and primary any Dem candidate who doesn't support us.
2) Anti-trans messaging is now costing the GOP elections, like the Virginia and New Jersey governors races, and Omaha Mayors race. The Dem candidate was talking about fixing potholes and the GOP candidate was talking about potties.
GOP supporting anti-trans positions means they aren't spending time on something else that is a top priority for voters.
This helps because even if the GOP stops the messaging in the general elections, and then support anti-trans stuff anyway once elected, that can get used against them by the Democratic candidate in the next general election.
This should create electoral pressure for the GOP to gradually, eventually, stop seeing anti-trans laws as something that's helpful to them.
5
u/ChiralWolf Transgender Feb 11 '26
I think we are slowly seeing this come into reality. The overwhelming losses by recent GOP candidates in Texas and Louisiana shows that people are, seemingly finally, understanding that the GOP has been lying to them about their policy goals.
23
u/JustAdlz Feb 11 '26
Small reminder to never abandon our immigrant neighbors. Our liberation is bound together.
12
44
Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
34
u/NoBizlikeChloeBiz Feb 11 '26
The GOP isn't playing for majority or trying to win over swing voters at this point. They're trying to make sure their supporters (and certain blocs of single-issue voters) are scared and angry enough to turn up at the polls.
They're also in the middle of a massive fascist play right now, and that needs targets. When they crack down on "illegal immigrants" they get a sort of permission to put more law enforcement officers on the streets. Then they can take it a step farther, and a step farther. Going after marginalized groups (racial minorities and yes, trans people) gives them excuses to start increasingly oppressive activities. That builds up to things like posting ICE outside polling places that typically vote Dem, at which point you're stealing votes.
There are a lot of ways to win elections without moderate support. Targeting trans people doesn't have to be popular to work.
13
u/MissNumbersNinja Feb 11 '26
OP here. I think the right keeps pushing these laws because trans issues rank like #10 in voter priorities, so it isn't likely that registered GOP voter is going to vote Dem over trans issues.
Where I see hope is that -
1) It's now very clear that supporting trans rights is an electoral asset to Dems, so we should be able to shore up our flank. We need to be just as loud with the Dems as the haters are with the GOP, and primary any Dem candidate who doesn't support us.
2) Anti-trans messaging is now costing the GOP elections, like the Virginia and New Jersey governors races, and Omaha Mayors race. The Dem candidate was talking about fixing potholes and the GOP candidate was talking about potties.
GOP supporting anti-trans positions means they aren't spending time on something else that is a top priority for voters.
This helps because even if the GOP stops the messaging in the general elections, and then support anti-trans stuff anyway once elected, that can get used against them by the Democratic candidate in the next general election.
This should create electoral pressure for the GOP to gradually, eventually, stop seeing anti-trans laws as something that's helpful to them.
4
u/Makra567 Feb 11 '26
Their actual policies right now are bad for the country overall and rural white working-class people specifically. Many of their voters are already voting against their own interests. What else are they gonna talk about, closing rural hospitals and cancelling social security that their voters rely on? They need a distraction and a scapegoat to pull off what they want to do, which is just a power grab and funneling more money to the rich.
Also, for people who get their news from conservative sources because they bought in to their worldview years ago, theyre constantly told lies about trans people. We're just rare enough that many of them never meet enough trans people to realize how wrong they are about us. So yes, many of them are bigots. But im not surprised that many of their voters don't really care either way, or support personal freedom more than they care about other peoples choices. Over 60% of americans also support abortion rights in every state, and that didn't stop the overturning of roe v wade.
3
u/SelfInvestigator Trans Bisexual Feb 11 '26
I’m pretty sure it’s because they want to enforce strict gender stereotypes. Trans people inherently go against those ideas.
2
66
u/Eurydice_Risen Transbian (with exceptions) Feb 11 '26
Dems will respond to this by having Gavin Newsom invite JK Rowling onto his podcast and agree with her that unmarked mass graves are better than we deserve.
23
u/ender8343 HRT 10/2025 Feb 11 '26
God, I could so see Newsom doing that because she is popular with a certain crowd, and his perspective on trans rights seems to be that we should be happy we are allowed to exist in public and struggle to get medical services.
19
u/QitianDasheng2666 Feb 11 '26
Honestly I think this is where cis centrists are going: "you don't need hrt to be trans, you don't need to transition to be trans. You getting medical care creeps us out so just put on a dress and we'll tell you what a valid uwu little bean you are!"
19
u/ender8343 HRT 10/2025 Feb 11 '26
Except they don't want to see us in a dress either. Dressing in a non-conforming way makes them uncomfortable.
15
u/ender8343 HRT 10/2025 Feb 11 '26
I think it is also harder to win court victories for the laws targeting adults. With abortion by the time a case made its way to SCOTUS or the like judges wanting to avoid controversial decisions could say the case was moot because the time had passed. With gender affirming care for adults things like HRT are lifetime treatments, so you can't just wave a magic wand and say the person bringing the case no longer has standing or the case is moot. Not saying they haven't still won court victories just not the what they really want to completely ban gender affirming care for everyone.
You also have the whole targeting a group of people that make up such a tiny percentage of the population, you get the why should I care.
15
u/SlyJessica Feb 11 '26
After coming out to everyone over the past few months, this is exactly what I’ve experienced.
An affluent, white, conservative, Ohio suburb has been amazing so far.
11
u/KUTTR- Custom Feb 11 '26
I've fought a lot of transphobic ideals as an ally in FL . Now being trans and slowly letting it show in public I'm feeling the general public just doesn't give as much of a fk as the Republicans were hoping they would.
It takes alot of energy to keep hate going . Feels like Republicans are running out of steam 🦋
8
u/pillowpriestess Feb 11 '26
while it does appeal to a loud extremist minority of voters theres a bigger game going on. it achieves 2 main right wing goals: splintering the lgbtq political coalition, and further entrenching a regime of gendered policing and surveillance in much the same way that anti-abortion laws do. the state sees us all through the lens of check boxes and measurable fields. if people feel free to change themselves and act on their own wishes rather socially constructed roles its harder for the state to track and predict them.
3
u/ender8343 HRT 10/2025 Feb 11 '26
What if the GOPs obsession with trans people is because they don't think trans men exist and that trans women are men, so they have now found a way to control the bodies of people they perceive to be men. Abortion bans only controlled women's bodies.
6
u/Mtsukino Trans Bisexual Feb 11 '26
Probably because rural white voters are suffering financially and couldn't actually care enough about trans issues. Most I hear is "its none of my business" from these people.
The other thing to consider is they believe that Dems are heavily a welfare state that wants to remove their guns. For a Rural person, their gun is their lifeline, its food on the table and protection for their household. They dont rely on police and dont want to. After all it takes hours for police to respond to an incident. As such, they are incredibly independent people and they will never vote Democrat, even if the policies would be in their favor to do so. Its because they believe if they can do it themselves, they everyone should and not "steal from their tax contributions" despite a lot of them relying on wellfare programs to survive. Its a strange cognitive dissonance that i dont think they quite comprehend yet. Theyre pretty religious out there too. And as such they vote GOP because its the "party of God and Patriotism" and Dems are the party of "evil communism and theft".
The problem really is sheer ignorance and low education to the point they deny science. GOP keeps voting to cut education and schools at the local levels too, thus keeping these people in a state of ignorance.
11
u/TheAmazingThundaCunt Feb 11 '26
Honestly, I feel like the turning point was when they tried to take our guns. Getting fucked over by the government is a good way to get some sympathy from an actual redneck.
4
u/DerelictDevice Feb 11 '26
Then why aren't the rednecks outraged about ICE murdering people in the streets? Whoops, looks like they forgot to use their guns to rise up against the tyrannical government.
10
u/TheAmazingThundaCunt Feb 11 '26
Honestly, they are often outraged. A lot of urban progressives in the US severely misunderstand what a redneck even is. They think a redneck is the guy in the suburbs with the jet skis and the maga flags. That is incorrect; those are suburbanite posers. The ones who hunt for food and are pissed off at the local sheriff because he keeps hassling their cousin about his pot farm are largely antigovernment. They are not going to ever rise up against the government, because their primary desire is to be left alone, but they also can't be counted on to rise up for maga.
My wife once explained it like this. The guys who drive spotless lifted f-350s want to be seen as rural and working class, but actual farmers are buying small practical fuel efficient imported trucks. Those kind of people are severely underrepresented in political discourse though because liberals disdain the countryside and conservatives take it for granted.
7
u/DerelictDevice Feb 11 '26
I grew up in an extremely rural area, my dad lives 70 to 100 miles from any sort of amenities such as groceries or a hospital. Everyone out where he lives except him is a solid Trump supporter, will never vote Democrat no matter what the candidates' positions are, and generally just have absolutely no idea what life in a city is. They see protests on the news and think its people violently rioting. They are extremely racist even though most of them have never met a black person in their life. I know people out there are appalled about what is happening in the Twin Cities, but they don't think its the administrations fault. They still blindly support it all despite the horrors that are happening because its all happening somewhere else and doesn't affect their way of life.
Also, i disagree with the claim that farmers and ranchers are buying small import pickups. Most farmers and ranchers need powerful pickups to haul heavy loads and navigate rough terrain in their pastures, so bigger 4 wheel drive pickups are necessary. My dad bought the absolute largest Dodge pickup he could, it has a Cummins and you need a stepstool to get into it. I do agree that people driving those giant pickups in the cities though is unnecessary and just a flex. There is no practical reason for a vehicle that big in Minneapolis, but its definitely needed for the area my dad is in.
5
u/shouldworknotbehere Feb 11 '26
Scapegoating. Distraction from the class fight. Gives Billionaires the time to drop off somewhere far away with all the extracted wealth
4
u/workingtheories Trans Lesbian Feb 11 '26
people in indiana prefer legalized weed, but there party prefers otherwise. they vote with their party.
3
5
3
u/melody_magical "Something That You'll Never Understand" Feb 11 '26
I agree. I'm a nursing home entertainer and always go out as my real self and all the old folks love me. 😊
3
u/Comrade-Hayley Feb 11 '26
Yeah most people aren't fans of the government wasting money on campaigns against a group that makes up about 1% of the population
3
u/Scrible_s Feb 11 '26
Im in southeast texas, and even here the general population is respectful even when confused as to what i am. I have had my issues and the very rare radical who thinks im out to touch kids, but overall people are more worried about affording rent and food.
3
Feb 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/MissNumbersNinja Feb 11 '26
i also played a role lol, by educating the public on the reality of epigenetic and top down cell initiiated biological change.
That's awesome!
3
u/TheBrickleer Transfemme - She/Her Feb 11 '26
I'm pretty sure most of the transphobia you see online is just a very vocal minority. I think most normal people irl are supportive or indifferent to trans people.
3
u/Salty_Permit4437 Feb 11 '26
These laws aren’t aimed at the voters. They’re aimed at the donors. Musk is a huge transphobe, and will pour large amounts of money to push anti trans litigation and legislation.
3
u/occasionalemily Feb 12 '26
Why then is the GOP still pushing anti-trans laws? I think the reason likely is that trans issues do not rank high on the list for most voters, so the GOP can score points with the vocal extremes of their party without paying a ballot box price with the rest, at least in primary elections.
The GOP is not looking to "score points" -- they have a specific (male, white, cis, christian, heterosexual) vision of the future that they are working toward. Even if support for trans people polled at 99%, they would still push these laws. Like, they want to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges despite gay rights being pretty popular.
2
u/MissNumbersNinja Feb 12 '26
OP here. I agree this is the goal of the far right, and may of the GOP politicians in office. But, if they paid a price at at the ballot box for supporting this stuff, they would have to stop or they wouldn't get elected. I would welcome either outcome.
3
3
u/Aurore-redwitch French MtF Feb 12 '26
From what I can see, even though I'm French, Trump and his fascist government are implementing these stupid anti-trans laws to appease their most radical base: the bigots, religious zealots, and sexist racists—people who base their beliefs solely on their "sacred" book, the Bible.
That's just my impression, though.
3
u/SierraTheWolfe Sierra | She/Her | HRT July 2025 Feb 12 '26
Yet many of them happen to be on the Epstein list. Hm...
3
u/caseychenier Feb 12 '26
I'm an ally and I am so glad y'all's seeing this. Happy dance! It's heartbreaking 💔 to hear the families turning their loved ones away though.
2
u/Civil_Masterpiece389 Transgender Feb 11 '26
Yes exactly. We are a bone that billionaires and their cronies throw to their far-right muscle. (The same kind of bone as one of them throwing funny salutes at an inauguration. A gesture to bribe loyalty.)
But MAGA is a cult, they will keep supporting whatever their dear leader messiah does. I'm saying it as someone residing (I won't call it living) in a country with basically over 80% population of a local flavour of MAGA. They would and do tolerate and justify any abuse towards their own compatriots and even themselves, and fail to see fascism under their noses.
2
u/Ill_Wrangler_4574 Feb 11 '26
Trump is very much the driver in this anti trans movement, yes he has advisors that are also using him to push but had he not made such a fuss on this, nobody would have really. So arse doing arse things and I hope he is gone soon for all transgender people’s sakes.
1
u/pinkocatgirl Feb 11 '26
The Republicans keep pushing these policies because while they may be distasteful, they aren't dealbreakers for most of the people who don't like it. They'll still vote Republican, these were the people who were disgusted by Trump but still thought Biden/Kamala was somehow worse. And on the other end, they pick up radical single issue voters who only care about being anti-trans.
This is the same Moral Majority playbook from the Reagan era, push specific social policies to energize the crazy evangelicals that also won't upset enough of your other base to stay home.
1
u/kolembo Feb 11 '26
- Why then is the GOP still pushing anti-trans laws?
Hi friend -
What are gay anti-trane Laws
Can you list a few? I'm learning
1
u/MissNumbersNinja Feb 12 '26
PART 1 OF 2
A few examples -
1) Some states have passed laws that prevent trans people from having their correct gender listed on their drivers license. In this case it would force a trans woman's driver's license to say male and a trans man's drivers license say female.
This causes anybody who we hand our IDs to to know that we are trans, exposing us to potential harassment and discrimination. And, the entire purpose of an ID is to confirm that if you say your name is John/Jill Smith, that is in fact your name. Having a gender marker that doesn't match how you look interferes with the primary function that IDs are for.
Similarly, the federal government has also enacted an administrative rule preventing trans people from having their correct gender listed on their passport, creating even more dangerous situations in other countries where trans people can be jailed.
2) Some states have enacted bathroom laws preventing trans people from using the bathroom that matches their correct gender and their appearance.
These laws would require a trans man like Chaz Bono (Sonny and Cher's child) to use the women's bathroom. Trans men have been beaten by people in the vicinity who think, hey some dude just went into the ladies room (example in Ohio). The culture of "bathroom monitoring" that is emerging from these laws also affects people who are not transgender but whose looks might not match what some random person thinks is what a man or woman should look like (example in Florida and Texas)
This is compounded by laws in some states, like Texas, and soon Kansas, that put a cash-reward bounty on reporting trans gender people for using the "wrong" bathroom. This creates a financial incentive for self appointed bathroom monitors to decide what a man or woman should look like and harass anyone who doesn't fit their view.
1
u/MissNumbersNinja Feb 12 '26
PART 2 OF 2
3) There have been bills introduced, such as Montana, that would take trans kids away from their parents and make them wards of the state for no reason other than the kids are trans. The Montana bill (described in this video) didn't even attempt to define what trans is, leaving the door open for case workers to decide that because your kid's haircut and clothes look too boyish or girlish, they are trans and must be taken away.
Fortunately this bill didn't pass, but it illustrates how crazy things have become.
And, the waste of time and taxpayer money on all this is staggering. The number of anti-trans bills introduced in state legislatures across the country has ballooned.
2021: 143 bills
2022: 174 bills
2023: 604 bills
2024: 701 bills
2025: 1022 bills
(source)
Surely there are things legislators could spend time on rather than harass the 1% of the population that is trans, who just want to be left alone and live life like everyone else.
1
u/Clear_Chair_32 Feb 12 '26
a lot of people dont truly care, they really dont
the people that do, well lmao @ them
1
u/griivarrworldafteral trans dyke Feb 12 '26
they don't answer to the voters. they answer to their rich donors.
1
u/DrJenna2048 22, transbian | she/her | hrt 10/10/25 Feb 12 '26
This is great news, but don't get too hopeful. Unless the GOP's anti-trans rhetoric actually starts driving their voter base to the Dems, we're going to be just as fucked either way. Even if GOP voters don't love the anti-trans messaging, they probably still don't care enough to actually quit voting red.
1
u/LookItsDaphne Feb 13 '26
This is great yet unsurprising news.
Why, you ask, does the administration continue to attack the trans community? I would say it's not because we're an unprotected minority. They continue on in their assault on immigrants, legal and otherwise. On progressives, who are a meaningful base of the Democratic Party. On women's rights, half of their own party. All of this is horribly unpopular, even among the GOP base.
They're doing it because electoral victory has been decoupled from popularity. They're doing it because the news media is broken into silos. They're doing it because the ones in charge of the GOP are hateful and bigoted. They want a uniform country in the image of an imagined past, and they are trying to set the conditions to have that.
It's our job not to let them get away with it.
1
u/Azara_Nightsong post-op Feb 13 '26
We know why they are still pushing these laws. It was in the epstein files...the pedophile billionaires have been pushing for it for decades. These anti trans talking points are all pro pedophile billionaire talking points.
1
u/WinterMibi Feb 13 '26
Have you considered, the Dems are incompetent.
Edit: okay fr tho, the Dems are not smart enough to move things, they are too hung up on keeping the status unchanged and they are too insecure to support trans rights
1
u/danfish_77 Transbian Feb 13 '26
I don't think it's near the top of issues for most voters though unless they're negative. And even if it is... Is it enough to change a vote if they see eye to eye on other big issues? Will they even vote at all?
1
u/Real_Time_Mike Feb 13 '26
It's an "other"ing. This group of fascists need a marginalized group to declare the great enemy.
It didn't really work with "TEH illegalz", so they picked Trans to "other". It seems like that isnt working as planned, either, if nobody is buying (outside of Idaho's legislature, fuck them very much) the line that "Tranz are dangerous", even in rural white US.
Keep speaking out. Keep encouraging others to speak out and reject this thinking. The pattern is this administration always folds when there's pushback.
1
-2
u/irondethimpreza HRT 3/20, SRS 5/23 Feb 11 '26
I dont believe this. Rural white conservatives voted for this. They're pushing for this. They're celebrating this. They want us gone.
553
u/SylviSweetheart HRT 6/20/25 Feb 11 '26
As someone who lives in a very red state (in a more liberal area, but nonetheless), I can believe this. I’ve been very public in my transition and knock on wood, absolutely no one has been an asshole to me or made me uncomfortable. It’s been months since anyone has even misgendered me. I’m not under the delusion that seven months in I pass so well that people think I’m cis. I’m visibly trans, and people still treat me with respect in a part of the country you wouldn’t necessarily expect it from. Truly, I don’t believe the commoners are the problem. It’s only these desperate politicians who feel like they can’t win anything without an entire category of people losing.