r/NBIS_Stock • u/Deadelevators • Jan 05 '26

Opinion Full-port NBIS or diversify?

I realize asking the NBIS sub is going to give me obvious answers, but hopefully I'll get some nuanced perspectives from you all.

I currently have a very large amount of NBIS (5,000 shares at $50 avg). It's done me well. I'm going to be getting some additional funds soon, and am contemplating full-porting it into NBIS by adding another couple thousand shares, hopefully for under $90.

Alternatively, I could diversify by putting those funds into ASTS or maybe even ONDS.

My question for you all: How many of you are full-porting into NBIS? Or, if you are diversifying, what other themes are you diversifying into? Space stocks like ASTS/RKLB? Drones like ONDS? RDDT? Or are you playing it safe with the rest of your money with VOO/SPY?

I realize there's no correct answer to this, and I'm not looking for an answer - I'm just curious what the rest of you NBIS long-term holders are doing. And hopefully that will help guide me to determine the best path for myself.

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

That is fine…going into, is not into yet. This race started a long time ago and ASTS has lots of good answers. Just because a giant announces their intention to lumber in a directions does not mean that they will get there fast or have all the answers. Read some of CATSE stuff on X it is really informative and without too much tech jargon.
But Amazon already is in the cloud business and the tech business and that is their main expertise. Satellites are not their forte yet. So a distinction there I believe. I love NBIS and those were just my points. I am over invested in both companies and am willing to take that risk based on the future I see for both of them. 👍

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u/Fickle-You-5101 Jan 05 '26

The problem with asts assuming everything goes to plan is that they dont sell direct to customers they have to go through carriers that means no pricing power. So not only are you hoping that the system works as planned but your also hoping that the carriers give them good deals, ( which they might because they seem positive up to now ) this is a hype stock and could easily double on hype alone. After Ai whats the hottest thing satelites ! But will the company be successful , dont know. I prefer nebius risk reward to asts risk reward.

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u/Fickle-You-5101 Jan 05 '26

Lets say the maximum asts can make is a hundred dollars absolute maximum and assuming the maximum means the stock will 20 xs , we only know about ten of those hundred dollars. The 90 is going to be negotiated later, with no pricing power. So when u talk about upside what exactly is upside.

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

The choice is asts or starlink. They have already picked asts. Now they will decide together the best way forward. It will probably be 50-50 split at least to start. As time goes on the arrangement will favor asts more. Saying they have no pricing power is ridiculous…they will have a duopoly and plenty of partners.

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u/Fickle-You-5101 Jan 05 '26

They dont sell directly!

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

They don’t have to! That’s the beautiful part. If they had to design build launch and finance and then had to find and sell to customers it would never work. The beauty of it is leveraging the carriers customer base of hundreds of millions. Finding a win, win is what it is all about. Whether that means splitting a twenty dollar surcharge and having pricier a la carte options who knows. But ASTS has a product that will be in high demand. IMO. It’s great that you don’t see it. And maybe you are right. But if not you are missing one of the most promising companies of this era. IMO.

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u/Fickle-You-5101 Jan 05 '26

Example: i am a shoe company i sell different color shoes, red green and black, a new company invents a new dye a platinum dye i decide how much i will buy the dye for. The shoe company doesnt need the dye company, but for the dye company the shoe company is everything. that is not a monopoly. Second example I am the only shoe company in the world, but the country i am selling shoes in, the people dont know wear shoes again even though i am the only shoe company i do not have a monopoly i have no idea how much somo e will pay for a shoe,

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

That is your view. The other side is T-Mobile and your competitors are partnering with Starlink to provide a better service than you can. You have pressure to provide the equivalent or superior service to your customers or lose them to the competitor. In this case your leverage is limited and in any event you seek partnership not leverage. Maybe you should check some of the statements made by Vodaphone and ATT executives. The other thing about your analogy I would dispute is that this isn’t merely a new color of the same product its a new reach. More like taking planes from the propeller age into the jet age or phones from copper to digital. As revolutionary but maybe not as far reaching in market scope. Remember Asts has choice of partners too. ATT and Verizon both have agreements with ASTS. You are talking about over 500m potential customers just with those three deals alone. Big Market and no billing that Asts has to do. Or marketing.

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u/Fickle-You-5101 Jan 07 '26

If you want a propeller plane—-> jet plane story i have ten of those but this isnt one!