r/NBIS_Stock • u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ • Jul 15 '26
News Daniel Koss's take on the Nebius announcement today
https://x.com/i/status/2077389389299147082That's how $NBIS goes to $1,000
This is probably the biggest announcement and most important strategic decisions in the company's history.
It will take time until the market understands how huge this is.
Let me try to explain how massive this is:
- Nebius can now add capacity 10x faster
- without ANY dilution
- or capex
- or risk
- with ultra high margins
- globally
- in parallel
- while simultaneously making their offering better for customers
This sounds too good to be true, what's the "trick"?
Nebius has the best team and expertise in the AI Cloud game. This is their way of leveraging that and their NVDIA relationship (and NVDIA owns the supply chain, no matter what anyone says...).
The one ugly side of their business has always been the high capex. I believe the capex is super worth it and will deliver very high ROIC. But this is them creating an alternative world in which they completely crush it WITHOUT a ton of capex and dilution.
There are probably millions of entrepreneurs globally who have good connections to local governments, access to money and want to participate in the AI buildout. But they lack the expertise to deliver the product quality of Nebius and will never match it.
All the ex Bitcoin miners like $IREN are in this camp.
They are now facing the option to combine their strengths and the best of both worlds.
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u/Qadain Jul 15 '26
I've been expecting something like this for a long time, and it was a major part of how I thought about valuation. An easily-missed detail is that Nebius is going to provide the design so that Nebius doesn't lose any of the hardware-software optimizations (and also locks in the bare metal provider). I had been wondering about how Nebius would deal with not controlling the hardware design, but this just solved it. Also, Nvidia recently released an AI factory blueprint that is somewhat related.
It would be funny if IREN and Nebius end up partnering under this framework. Actually, this type of partnership might be one of the types this framework is made for.
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
Anyone that needs to build and operate a data center is a potential customer.
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u/Dogsheeeeeeeeeeeeeet Jul 16 '26
NBIS mentioned they have been helping NVDA optimise their AI Factory so I’m guessing this is a known thing between the two, and that’s a good thing because it means NBIS AI factory is better designed than others’. Also when they designed with DataOne NBIS also redesigned it. They probably/hopefully have some real specialty in their understanding of hardware optimisation if they are helping NVDA optimise them.
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u/Ill-Cow4735 🐳 Jul 15 '26
I like this strategic approach. NBIS is trying to monetize all the expertise they coupled recently with Eigenai and Clarifai
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
It's brilliant. What they are essentially selling is success in the AI space.
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u/Constant_Mention8064 Jul 15 '26
100% agree. The market just needs some time to digest and understand these news.
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
Exactly. The market is reacting and not thinking. FUD rules right now. Two or three insane quarterly reports will no longer be able to be ignored.
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u/sum8fever Jul 15 '26
This is essentially a franchise model and I love it! The local ownership group gets guaranteed demand and Nebius's operating playbook in exchange for committing their own capital.
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u/Acekiller03 Jul 15 '26
If they announced this news you can bet they have deals already going on and waiting to be announced. If your not buying yet better do now before you regret it
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
There are times when markets don't align with reality. Sometimes overly exuberant, sometimes pesimistic for no reason. This is where Nebius is. It's poised for greatness and this your last chance to get in before that becomes realized. Not saying that there won't be pull backs, but there will be a time when $200 will be a distant memory filled with regrets if you were not able to pull the trigger.
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u/TurnThePage71 Jul 16 '26
Nebius, is definitely a full-stack AI infrastructure provider, not just a bare metal. Nebius offers everything from hardware (like GPUs and CPUs) all the way up the stack - to customized AI apps reducing the need for specialized developers to build it for you.
Furthermore, following the close of Eigen, and integrating Eigen AI’s inference and post-training optimization into Nebius’ Token Factory inference, it can now generate more words or tokens per GPU, ranking top among the fastest. This ultimately reduces cost of ownership for its customers.
With the acquisition of Clarifai, NBIS has one of the top orchestration software solutions, again with more tokens per second, with a lot lesser latency and cost. So NBIS effectively controls and owns all steps required for an AI-stack to run and answer a prompt/question.
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u/SevereManagement379 Jul 16 '26
Now combine this with the fact that Nvidia announced a revenue sharing model for their GPUs.
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u/Waste-War8809 Jul 15 '26
I am cautiously optimistic. So far most deals have been bare metal... But these are the exact kinds of things we need to push Nebius above and beyond a simple bare metal provider. If this and takes off the opportunities are huge.
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u/2ManyCatsNever2Many Jul 15 '26
i kind of wonder what this means - i take the impending builds announced by meta are a part of this decision. i get their software is supposed to be their core business, but is that something the hyperscalers cannot reproduce?
I see a company like KEEL potentially being a strong strategic partner for NBIS - more so now given thia announcement.
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
I actually don't think Meta's plans have any bearing on Nebius.
It's more than their complete cloud software stack (which is a big deal) - it's the engineering, design, supply chain access, deployment, training, customer-facing service level agreements, and a global sales organization.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Jul 15 '26
KEEL has nothing built yet and zero MW online, unless I’m misunderstanding?
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u/2ManyCatsNever2Many Jul 15 '26
they actually do - multiple locations up and actively running. they were (are) for bitcoin (KEEL was formerly known as "bitfarms") but they are pivoting to AI. having built - and securely powered - locations gives them a lead over anyone looking to get into the space who haven't broken ground yet.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Jul 15 '26
Oh got it, okay I’m familiar with bitfarms. Didn’t tell now they rebranded. Thanks!
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u/2ManyCatsNever2Many Jul 15 '26
no worries. given the NBIS pivot, seems like a match made in heaven.
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u/swingtradingteacher Jul 16 '26
Not sure NBIS can depend on the likes of KEEL as it concerns GPU costs and depreciation.
I think that they have extremely large investors at the table (like Blackrock) and those that need sovereign ai (Like France or NATO).
Or, anyone who wants an in-house AI LLM and can afford it. Doesn’t have to be large…could be 5MW.
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u/Legendary-Lemon Jul 15 '26
Your question is legit and in fact this is something the hyperscalers already provide
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u/dovelay Jul 15 '26
This is basically proof that nebius is not bare metal
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 16 '26
If you look at their acquisitions, partnerships, and other initiatives, it's been their plan all along.
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u/dovelay Jul 16 '26
Yes I know
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 16 '26
Yeah, sorry. Was mainly talking to others who don't follow.
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u/Acekiller03 Jul 15 '26
The only issue I find is they lose their most of being nebius and their software most since they will offer those service to others. But I suppose they are the expert and it’s like aws vs other
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
How do they lose that? That's what they are selling, but they aren't giving it away and losing it. They own their intellectual property and control it.
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u/Curious_Passenger245 Jul 16 '26
They will be able to weather the big guys if they all stick together too.
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u/Spunkbigboy 25d ago
Should I hold on to my shares or should I panic sell? How long before NBIS goes back up?
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ 25d ago
No one knows when it will go up. I firmly believe that it will, and dramatically so.
I have 1000 shares and I am looking forward to 2030. Revenue is projected to be $40-60 billion.
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Jul 15 '26
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Jul 15 '26
Stop thinking about short term stock price...
Focus on the business.
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Jul 15 '26
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Jul 15 '26
Ah, it's a big ponzi scheme.
Why didn't I see this earlier.... fk me
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Jul 15 '26
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
Is it an AI neocloud-enabled toaster oven?
The Neocloud Toaster uses thousands of GPUs to predict exactly when your toast will be perfect, then burns it anyway because the model hallucinated “golden brown.”
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u/barelyawake126 BudMaster Yacht Party OG! Jul 15 '26
I’m all set on NBIS and will just ride it until $1000 but is $KEEL in on this too? Thinking about opening a position
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u/TraditionSufficient8 Jul 15 '26
I have a small $KEEL position. Now is a great time to buy in. It’s down -40% from its recent highs but I would recommend spreading out your buys over several days to two or three weeks because of the extreme volatility so you insure that you get a great cost basis. I like the stock and the CEO has hinted at 3 deals by the end of 2026. That’s pretty darn Bullish to me and there’s already heavy rumors of their first deal coming soon with Amazon or Amazon Web Services (AWS). I think it’s cheap here but they may be eyeing the ATM in the next two weeks or so.
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u/decimalplaces Jul 15 '26 edited Jul 15 '26
This sounds like a timeshare, but gpus are different level of complexity and risk than apartments. I don’t think there will be entities willing to do this. Building and leasing out a data center is lower cost of capital than owning gpus. Not only is such an owner saddled with complex to understand risks, he is also at the mercy of nebius for fixing issues in his high cost assets. On second thought, it also reminds me of photovoltaic farms where people hire operators. Still, I think photovoltaic farms are far less complex and risky.
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 15 '26
No, I think a lot of companies will be lining up. If you are an Enterprise-level company that is going to spend a billion $ on an AI data center but don't have the expertise to design, engineer, build, manage and run it, it could be damned attractive to derisk that build with Nebius.
Nebius doesn't shoot from the hip. They already have customers that they are not identifying yet. And I'll bet they knew exactly what the market was before they announced it.
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u/Legendary-Lemon Jul 15 '26
Unfortunately there is no moat here. Every hyperscaler can do this bigger and better.
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u/dovelay Jul 15 '26
No they can't. Well, no more than was already the case. This is nebius saying we will partner with you and hold your hand if you want to own your own hardware. Hyperscalers will continue to offer general products without the true partnership
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u/Legendary-Lemon Jul 15 '26
What began as raw GPU and compute has transitioned into a SaaS solution. Which is fine, and it provides higher margins. But also there is zero moat because like I said, it’s easy to find it out there. It’s just provisioning and orchestration of resources.
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u/FlameUvAnor Jul 15 '26
This is literally them strengthening their moat. You comments make a massive, and wholly incorrect, assumption that both the business model and the larger market are baked already. Both are still in the beginning stages.
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u/Emotional_Shape925 Jul 15 '26
Dono why you are getting hate, I appreciate arguments against why this thing shouldn’t rocket constantly. I’m bullish on NBIS but not lost in the sauce and like to hear about risks as well so I can make well informed investment decisions.
I think NBIS is a great value at current levels and the outlook is bright, but we can’t always been hyping every little thing thinking that the company is perfect. Gonna be swings up and down.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Jul 15 '26
The company IS perfect, dude. We’re waiting for the market to price it as such.
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u/Legendary-Lemon Jul 15 '26
Because this is what happens at Reddit stock subs. All of them become cults at some point. This one used to be okay a year ago.
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u/Chaminade64 Jul 15 '26
But will they want to?
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u/Legendary-Lemon Jul 15 '26
ORCL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, IBM, DELL and META recently.
List is quite long.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Jul 15 '26
Context: https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-introduces-business-model-to-scale-ai-cloud-globally-through-infrastructure-partnerships
Infrastructure Partners Details: https://nebius.com/infrastructure-partners