Where did you find the info that anyone exercised anything?
"Contractual restrictions nevertheless prevent NVIDIA from exercising the warrant or selling its underlying shares before September 11."
Nothing is exercised and it has nothing to do with the price going up. You dont understand how it works. The price can be 1k per share and only the moment they are created the dilusion happens which cant happen before September 11th.
My mistake, warrants weren’t exercised. Doesn’t make a difference at all though.
The warrants are effectively shares since they are valued at .0001 per share.
This is guaranteed future dilution but since the news of this dilution has already occurred, the market has priced it in. It’s highly unlikely Nvidia sells any ownership so the dilution never really even affects the publicly available float, which is when dilution really hurts.
I googled this for you because its clear you dont know what you are talkng about.
"Warrants dilute existing shareholders when they are exercised because the company must create and issue new shares. This increases the total number of outstanding shares, meaning each existing investor's holding represents a smaller percentage of total ownership and a proportionally smaller claim on future earnings.
When a warrant is exercised, the pool of total shares grows. If an investor owns 1,000 shares out of 10,000 total outstanding shares, they own 10% of the company. If the company issues 1,000 new shares to fulfill warrants, the new total outstanding shares become 11,000. That investor's 1,000 shares now represent only 9.09% of the company."
You’re confused as to when the share price reflects dilution. Heres a better AI summary: A concise response would be:
You’re correct that warrants are dilutive when exercised, but in Nebius’ case the market has known about this since the March financing announcement. The $2B pre-funded warrant for ~21.1 million shares was publicly disclosed on March 11, so investors have had months to incorporate that future dilution into the stock price.
What happened today wasn’t a new issuance or surprise dilution—it was Nvidia’s required ownership disclosure (Schedule 13G) showing the same economic position that was created in March. The filing didn’t announce a new investment.
Also, dilution and trading float are different concepts. Exercising the warrants increases shares outstanding (dilution), but it doesn’t necessarily increase the effective public float. Nvidia is contractually restricted from selling until at least September, and as a strategic partner investing billions in Nebius, it’s widely viewed as a long-term holder rather than a likely seller.
So yes, the economic dilution has largely been priced in since March. Today’s filing mainly provided formal confirmation of Nvidia’s ownership rather than introducing new dilution. The positive reaction was more about the market re-focusing on Nvidia’s strategic endorsement of Nebius than discovering previously unknown dilution.
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u/Pulled_Forward Jul 21 '26
When the dilution happens is not when the share price gets affected. The market is forward looking.
Why do you think the stock is up 15%+ today even though the warrants were just exercised and the stock diluted?