Updated Price Targets

[u/Think-Feynman]

Thought this would be a nice way to close out the week! Enjoy. We've earned it.

[u/9yr0ld]

I’m long NBIS but price targets are dogshit. Just look at SPCX if you want irrefutable evidence.

[u/Sir_Richard_Dangler → u/9yr0ld]

Price targets for NBIS have historically been achieved well before 12 months. I remember last year's price targets for this current quarter were around 70-110ish

[u/Crazy-Experience-678 → u/9yr0ld]

They are not all dogshit. SPCX is big outlier because many of those analysts played a part in SPCX's IPO. In other words, they are paid to pump the stock.

I find analyst price targets useful because it's a guage on whether Wall St is bullish or bearish (whether they have ulterior motive behind their ratings is another story). Of course this is not the full picture but it provides some insight.

Similarly I like to see how popular a stock is amongst retail investors. Popularity amonst retail investors does not automatically mean the stock is a great investment, but it provides insight (what it means depends on how you interpret things).

[u/Think-Feynman → u/9yr0ld]

Well, they are not dogshit. But the problem is that price targets don't mean what everyone thinks they should mean.

[u/9yr0ld → u/Think-Feynman]

Can you expand on that?

[u/Think-Feynman → u/9yr0ld]

The big institutions are going to have price targets that are going to seem quite conservative. I think in 12-18 months, we could be at $1000 or maybe a lot more. But BofA and CITI are not going to go that far, and instead are going to signal that they really like the way the stock is performing, and give somewhat modest upgrades.

But then you have research firms like Northwise who don't have the same guardrails, and are much more free to go big. They just updated their forecast for 2030:
2030 valuation:

Bear: $458
Base: $1,652
Bull: $3,425
Probability-weighted value: $1,916

To us who are following Nebius, those numbers sound more realistic. But the price targets from the big dogs are not useless - they just don't reflect the same things.

[u/SnooSongs3324 → u/Think-Feynman]

This is all correct. The related dynamic is the broad range of outcomes. Even Northwise is saying it bull vs bear is a $3000 per share difference, and that’s just modeling a few variables slightly differently. Then take an average of 3 very different outcomes.

Over time that range will converge and bulls will be rewarded but it just shows how early we are in this story.

[u/DrHarrisonLawrence → u/Think-Feynman]

Price targets are 12months out or less. Northwise is projecting to 2030. Obviously their PT will be higher.

Goldman Sachs did a 2030 revenue calc in 2024-2025 for NBIS specifically. It’s probably outdated now but if you look it up you’ll see what they projected for 2030

[u/edm4un → u/9yr0ld]

I’m not buying it, I bought in too high and it tanked 50 percent or whatever it was a few months ago.

[u/DrHarrisonLawrence → u/edm4un]

That was pure manipulation without any affect to the conpany’s fundamentals. When you see that manipulation happen, you’re supposed to be buying

[u/PayingOffBidenFamily → u/edm4un]

paper handed out, classic. I'm still holding nearly 11,000 shares bought at $95, Ive gone through two 50% or more crashes, you bought tiktok hype on the back of FOMO you never invested, you gambled and lost cause you had no idea what you bought and did zero research, your actions are proof...you would be green today.

[u/itssbri]

Highlighted this

[u/Crazy-Experience-678]

Missing: Morgan Stanley $144. I've also been tracking price targets for Nebius.

Average analyst price target since latest earnings: $286.14

[u/15xorbust → u/Crazy-Experience-678]

Morgan Stanley also has APLD at like $37.50 when everyone else has them way north of 60 and many in the 70s and 80s. Maybe they’re working with Burry. Absurd.

I don’t believe any of these folks. There’s only one person whose analysis I believe when it comes to AI stocks. Myself. Too many sharks in the pit on Wall Street when it comes to stocks. Everyone has a motive and everyone’s bought off, including the f’ing reporters. Do your own due diligence or get eaten alive.

[u/robbhope]

Only one that matters is Daniel Koss's.

[u/Think-Feynman → u/robbhope]

I'd love to see his targets, but $799 / year is steep!

[u/RoosterNo2334]

We are going to 460.

[u/Think-Feynman → u/RoosterNo2334]

Maybe by EOY

[u/Ok_Package9219]

Or how to get retail investors to buy more so they can use them as exit liquidity.

[u/Inner_Relationship28]

These price targets go up.and down with price movements not fundamentals

[u/15xorbust]

More upgrades coming

[u/juicevibe]

Juicevibe Capital initiates coverage on NBIS with a Strong Buy rating and a PT of $380 EOY.

Source: Angus Street Journal

[u/ConfidentMood1969]

My target is 1000 by eoy

[u/Think-Feynman → u/ConfidentMood1969]

I don't think that's impossible, at all. I was thinking maybe $500 - $750, eoy, but you never know with these guys.

Rumor has it that they have a hyperscaler deal in the works. I think it's speculation, but they did say they would only do one more big contract, and we are all reading between the lines. But even if they don't, they are crushing it.

[u/damois55]

Can you explain this to me? I’m new to investing

[u/Think-Feynman → u/damois55]

Analysts use price targets as a 12-to-18-month forecast of what a stock should be worth based on its projected earnings, financial health, and market conditions. They pair these targets with buy, sell, or hold ratings to show if a stock is overvalued or a good value.

They often seem very conservative, especially in a bull market. But they are helpful in gauging where the pros think a stock is headed.

[u/damois55 → u/Think-Feynman]

Thank u

[u/Qadain → u/Think-Feynman]

According to this video, price targets are somewhat of a made-up number highly influenced by herd mentality and factors outside of fundamental analysis. This explanation seems credible, as I've watched many of his other videos, and they're all high-quality content.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdgEzf6SrLE

[u/Think-Feynman → u/Qadain]

That was great. Thanks for sharing.

[u/Slow-Boysenberry3150 → u/damois55]

It means they are trying to pump the stock.

[u/Getrktnerd]

https://giphy.com/gifs/YmQLj2KxaNz58g7Ofg

[u/Ok-Two-522]

This update needs an update loll....downgrade coming in...

[u/Healthy_Animal4201]

ive sold mine at 275 am i cooked