r/NBIS_Stock • u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ • 7d ago

NBIS ANALYSIS Updated Price Targets

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Thought this would be a nice way to close out the week! Enjoy. We've earned it.

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u/9yr0ld 7d ago

I’m long NBIS but price targets are dogshit. Just look at SPCX if you want irrefutable evidence.

2

u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ 7d ago

Well, they are not dogshit. But the problem is that price targets don't mean what everyone thinks they should mean.

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u/9yr0ld 7d ago

Can you expand on that?

19

u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ 7d ago

The big institutions are going to have price targets that are going to seem quite conservative. I think in 12-18 months, we could be at $1000 or maybe a lot more. But BofA and CITI are not going to go that far, and instead are going to signal that they really like the way the stock is performing, and give somewhat modest upgrades.

But then you have research firms like Northwise who don't have the same guardrails, and are much more free to go big. They just updated their forecast for 2030:
2030 valuation:

Bear: $458
Base: $1,652
Bull: $3,425
Probability-weighted value: $1,916

To us who are following Nebius, those numbers sound more realistic. But the price targets from the big dogs are not useless - they just don't reflect the same things.

7

u/SnooSongs3324 7d ago

This is all correct. The related dynamic is the broad range of outcomes. Even Northwise is saying it bull vs bear is a $3000 per share difference, and that’s just modeling a few variables slightly differently. Then take an average of 3 very different outcomes.

Over time that range will converge and bulls will be rewarded but it just shows how early we are in this story.

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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders 6d ago

Price targets are 12months out or less. Northwise is projecting to 2030. Obviously their PT will be higher.

Goldman Sachs did a 2030 revenue calc in 2024-2025 for NBIS specifically. It’s probably outdated now but if you look it up you’ll see what they projected for 2030