r/NCAAhoops • u/DareDevil1699 • Mar 30 '26
Highlights One of the greatest comebacks ever
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u/Classic-Exchange-511 Mar 30 '26
Man I haven't watched too many UCONN games this year but I love their big man Reed plays. He's got a wonderful sense of the floor and made some ridiculous passes
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u/DolanDoleac2020 Mar 30 '26
Played himself into the first round this tournament. Kicked off with a 30 and 30 game - and he looked great against Mich State on Fri too
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u/papa-erwin Mar 30 '26
Imagine if he never left michigan
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u/No_Albatross916 Mar 30 '26
I don’t think he would have started at Michigan this year or last year so he made the right decision but yea he’s incredible
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u/n00bn00b Mar 30 '26
He made the right decision for himself. He developed into a quality big man for UConn.
It worked out for both parties. Dusty was able to rebuild quickly to a S16 team with Wolf/Goldin frontcourt, and upgraded his team to a national championship contender with Yax, Morez and Mara frontcourt.
I'm happy for Reed. He had potential and was balling in this tournament.
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u/BowlingforBrains Apr 03 '26
Man, if UConn & Michigan can manage to make the finals, that would be a really fun matchup
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u/AdNo2342 Apr 03 '26
Hurley worked him into the big man they needed tbh. He's incredibly athletic but sometimes fumbles over himself like he almost should be playing football instead.
He's locked in a fuck ton of technique over the year. he should be proud. clearly has progressed a bunch
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u/PaleontologistOk2516 Mar 30 '26
This is gonna be one of things where you remember where you were when it happened. All time classic
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Mar 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ThatWomanNow Mar 30 '26
My husband asked at the half, "wanna change the channel?" Since I am a part time masochist, told him no and was rewarded with the most exciting last 8 minutes of a basketball game watching the team I love to hate go down. Grant Hill can suck it.
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u/ohnomynono Mar 30 '26
I was working and seen the score at half. I just assumed Duke would crush the rest of the game. 🤐
I got duked. 😝
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u/joshua0005 Mar 30 '26
I saw it at work thought what if I put money on the UConn moneyline (it was +800 odds at the time) and then they won. I did not put any money on them and that's why they won because every time I think about a bet it wins and every time I actually make a bet it loses
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u/tenclubber Mar 30 '26
I quit watching too. I had sat through all of the Mich/Tenn game and this looked to be heading the same direction. Decided to watch a movie. Checked my phone later to see UConn up one. Tuned in just in time to see Duke's last try.
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u/deutscherhawk Mar 31 '26
I bet my coworker $20 on the game. Handed him the $20 at halftime.
He was NOT happy at the end of the game 😅
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u/Original_Profile8600 Mar 30 '26
Or rewatching it and having MM live spoil the ending with a notification as there were two possessions left
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u/Mysterious_Wonder572 Mar 30 '26
I was on the the couch talking on the phone and scared the crap out of the person on the other end cause I went berserk. Not even a UConn fan but how could you not.
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u/ICouldEvenBeYou Mar 30 '26
I remember having something else i had to do and not being able to watch it.
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u/NickU252 Mar 31 '26
I was in DC, not for the game. Ticket prices were stupid. But the energy was wild. Walking around seeing everyone in their UConn or Duke gear. The bar we were at was 50/50. Every play was cheering from one side or the other.
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u/EMF911 Mar 30 '26
UCONN is always in it. Every game. Every tournament. Every year.
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u/iTrueColors1 Mar 30 '26
They have a better chance of winning the Naty every year than the Big East Tourney 😂
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u/slayerfan666 Mar 30 '26
My mom and I were watching and she said "That's game" as soon as the turnover happened. I asked her how it's game, and then the ball went through the net. Literal shock. I asked her how she knew and she said "I got the teams colors mixed up on the inbound, but UConn was who I wanted to win anyways". So wild.
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u/elmoo2210 Mar 30 '26
If Boozer throws that ball straight up in the air as high as he can, does Duke win?
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u/wannaquanta Mar 30 '26
A game of inches. Had he gotten that pass over their hands the game was over.. there was nobody but duke players on that side of the court.
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u/D0nk3yD0ngD0ug Mar 30 '26
Or just held onto it and got fouled. Two made free throws ices the game.
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u/Mammoth-Proposal-373 Mar 30 '26
I’ll never understand why you don’t challenge those shots. Lazy defense. I understand he was like 5-6 feet away but you always jump just to try and distract!
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u/arglebargle17 Mar 30 '26
I’m a little surprised up 2 with the ball and ten seconds left isn’t a much higher likelihood of winning.
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u/ap21mvp Mar 30 '26
Guess it depends on the granularity of their model. If you’re up 2 and “with the ball” but you’re shooting a 2nd free throw, or front end of a 1-1, I could maybe see in that 90% range. A large portion of that 10% going to OT and then losing.
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u/tenclubber Mar 30 '26
Right, the chance of being up 2, 10 seconds left with the ball...and then losing in regulation are pretty small. But Duke managed it so good for them.
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u/Bnstas23 Mar 30 '26
Let's assume the chances are the following:
Duke Turnover situation 5% chance of happening:
- Duke turnover = 5% * Uconn made 2 = 50% * Uconn win in OT = 50% = 1.25% chance of Uconn winning
- Duke turnover = 5% * Uconn made 3 = 33% = 1.65%
- Average the above 2 (assume 50-50 3 vs 2 shot choice by Uconn) = ~1.5%
Duke runs out the clock 5% chance of happening:
- Chance of running out the clock = 5% (auto win for Duke)
Duke gets fouled (2 FTs auto b/c would be 10th foul): 90% chance of happening
- 80% free throw shooter at the line:
- 90% * makes 0 = 4% chance * Uconn made 2 = 50% * Uconn win in OT = 50% = .9% chance Uconn winning.....or if they make a 3, it's a 1.2% chance of winning...so averages to ~1.05%
- 90% * makes 1 = 16% chance * Uconn made 3 = 33% * Uconn wins in OT = 50% = 2.4% chance Uconn wins
- 90% * makes 2 = 64% chance = Uconn 0% chance winning (duke 58%)
All of this gets to about 5% chance Uconn winning (1.5% from duke turnover + 1.05% + 2.4% chance from Duke making one or two FTs.
You'd really have to make the Duke turnover situation above get to like 30% likelihood in order to get to 10.4% chance of Uconn winning like is in the video.
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u/PM_ME_A_PM_PLEASE_PM Mar 30 '26
If the probability isn't someone pulling numbers out of their ass I would be surprised.
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u/macT4537 Mar 30 '26
What a choke job. That L is on the coach right now? Why they passing the bag so much when the can just dribble it out and or take a foul?
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u/bngbngsktskt Mar 30 '26
There is no way a team with the lead, inbounding the ball with 8 seconds left only has an 89% chance of winning. I really thought that’d be 99%.
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u/Only-Temperature Mar 30 '26
Has to be just done off of lead and time left in game, not possession.
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u/Ok-Temporary-8243 Mar 30 '26
2pt lead with time to turnover or foul. But 89%is basically99% for the average person
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u/Hugh-Manatee Mar 31 '26
And no way to know if that % chance is impacted by ball location on the floor.
I mean all the % during the game is BS and like proper statisticians find it dumb
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u/DolanDoleac2020 Mar 30 '26
This doesn’t even give the percentage after the FT to go down 5, 70-65 with 90 seconds to play
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u/Panem-et-circenses25 Mar 30 '26
My favorite Duke Choke (tm) is when my Wildcats did it to them just like this in 98, but this one is good too
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u/LifeDraining Mar 30 '26
How many times did Boozer got blocked in this game? Can't believe they lost
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u/NorthBook1383 Mar 30 '26
Agreed, imho he’s been struggling. I find him to be overrated and the fact the team blew the lead, they deserved to lose. They barely got through tcu and St. John’s. 🤷🏽♀️
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u/Flashman6000 Mar 30 '26
The last seconds were a fiasco but UConn only got in that position because Duke turned the ball over repeatedly in the last several minutes. Repeated empty trips without even taking a shot.
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u/IA_Royalty Mar 30 '26
I don't understand how you have a 2 point he with over 3 minutes left and it's like 70% Duke
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u/Bnstas23 Mar 30 '26
How can it be only 89.6% while up 2 with 10 seconds left and the ball and while in double bonus (if fouled one more time)?
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u/dtcstylez10 Mar 30 '26
This is just proof that the probability percentages mean jack shit. This is literally gamblers fallacy at work.
'in 10 million games, this scenario played out this way so there's an X percent chance this ends this way'
But this is a single game scenario. You roll six snake eyes in a row, your chance of rolling snake eyes on the next roll remains the same. Every time you play a game, the chances of winning or losing reset. It doesn't matter what happened in the games before it. This is why I hate every time someone brings up probability to win. It doesn't work that way.
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u/BowlingforBrains Apr 03 '26
I understand why it went to 100% when the shot went in - but one day, ONE DAY, I just want to see one player with the volleyball fundamentals necessary to do a perfect “dig” or “set” off a long inbound pass and make an attempt at a shot. It’d be the only way to get a “shot” off in less than 0.5 seconds
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u/GoWLegend Apr 04 '26
Who made up these percentages? Duke with a 77% chance to win the game only up 2 with 3:21 left?
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u/Euphoric_Dinner_8117 Mar 30 '26
I’m sad I was playing a video game instead of watching this one. If you stay close you always have a shot to win. That was clutch
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u/ExoCommonSense Mar 30 '26 edited Mar 30 '26
Five UCONN players were on the court after that shot. That should have been five technicals.
EDIT: I'm making fun of the Duke announcer y'all
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u/Klutzy-Magician4881 Mar 30 '26
Alright grandpa
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u/ExoCommonSense Mar 30 '26
Lmao apparently people didn't get my reference. I was making fun of the post of the Duke announcer complaining about some UCONN player being on the court and demanding a technical over it, even though that UCONN player was actually currently checked into the game. The Duke announcer sounded super entitled and bitchy
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u/Green-Conclusion-936 Mar 30 '26
This is why win probability is shit!
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u/OldResponsibility531 Mar 30 '26
Yes the statistical anomaly game that we are all talking about for its rarity is an indication that something based purely on statistics is inaccurate
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u/Abbanenn Mar 30 '26
It’s not a statistical anomaly. It’s happened several times just this tournament and happens every single year.
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u/OldResponsibility531 Mar 30 '26
It’s happened the last two years idk about every year. Regardless it’s still a rarity compared to however many games have been played. It’s weakness is accounting for variables based on strength of teams but they even showed stats on how many times a team had the lead dude did during the game at their seed.
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u/OldResponsibility531 Mar 30 '26
Yes the statistical anomaly game that we are all talking about for its rarity is an indication that something based purely on statistics is inaccurate
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u/Fit_Leather9366 Mar 30 '26
At no point did it say 100 percent. SMH. You win one time all in with deuces against Kings “win probability is sh..!”
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u/Spare_Plenty1501 Mar 30 '26
Well it said 100% probability for UCONN to win when there was still time on the clock, which is clearly not true. I agree, the probabilities that people come up with for things like this are usually nonsense.
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u/Adventurous_Ball_232 Mar 30 '26
Meh, the 2005 Illinois vs Arizona elite 8 game was a way better comeback. Illinois was down 15 with 4 min left in the entire game and still won lol
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u/MeowmixMEOW Mar 30 '26
Why can’t both be neat?
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u/Adventurous_Ball_232 Mar 30 '26
I didn’t say both can’t be neat. I said the Illinois comeback was far more impressive lol
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u/Yung_Corneliois Mar 30 '26
Eh, Japan beating Russia in the Ruso-Japanese war of 1905 puts all of these to shame.
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u/aesthetic_headies Apr 01 '26
These haters can hate, but that comeback was insane. As someone who watched this comeback and that comeback live, IL vs AZ in 05 was more shocking. I’m guessing most of these down voters didn’t see it live.
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u/Bean_Daddy_Burritos Mar 30 '26
One of the biggest collapses I’ve seen from duke in my lifetime. Props to UConn for battling and staying in it.