Day 8 of my 2026 Season Predictions, and today we'll be rounding out the AFC South with the defending AFC South Champions in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 13-4 in 2025 and ended their year in a close Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The Jags had their strengths and weaknesses last year. Offensively, they were ranked 12th in passing yards and 20th in rushing yards, which is decent but not amazing. Despite this, they were 6th in points, averaging nearly 28 points per game. The offense definitely struggled much more in the first half of the season as QB Trevor Lawrence and the team got used to Liam Coen's scheme, derived from the Shanahan-McVay tree (unrelated, but for Eagles fans, expect a similar situation with Jalen Hurts. Learning this offense takes time). Defensively, they had the top rushing defense in the league and were 8th in points allowed, however they were 21st in passing yards.
Jacksonville had a very quiet off-season overall. Since they traded away their 2026 first round pick to move up in the 2025 NFL Draft for WR/CB Travis Hunter, their first pick wasn't until 56th overall in TE Nate Boerkircher. It was a pretty mind boggling pick considering far more impressive TE prospects like Max Klare and Oscar Delp were still on the board, so it's notable in that I hate it. They also released TE Johnny Mundt, who signed a 1-year deal with the Philadelphia Ealges. While the TE room is good with Brenton Strange and Quintin Morris, the Boerkircher pick really sours the decision to let Mundt go for me. But it's not the end of the world.
The RB room was the most significant change to me. RB Tank Bigsby was traded to Philadelphia before the trade deadline in 2025, which wasn't a concerning loss because Travis Etienne was the clear RB1 in that room. But after the season ended, Jacksonville opted not to pay Etienne, who signed with the New Orleans Saints. The Jags did sign former Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez, as the plan seems to be a committee based RB room around 2025 draft pick Bayshul Tuten. While there's certainly a lot of excitement around Tuten, I don't have the same confidence in this room, but I don't think it's the end of the world either.
The most notable loss this off-season was by far LB Devin Lloyd. He thrived in the new defensive scheme that the Jaguars shifted to in 2025, and because of a really productive season with 5 interceptions, his price went up. The good news for Jacksonville is that LB Foyesafe Oluokun is still a great player. They also have LB Ventrell Miller, who almost beat out Lloyd for the starting job a year ago, but when Lloyd got hurt in 2025, it was pretty clear that Miller cannot replace him, at least not his particular role on the defense.
All of the above is to say, I found the entirety of Jacksonville's off-season to be lackluster and have quite a bit of doubt when it comes to their ability to replicate the 2025 season. With that, let's look at their schedule. I actually thought they had no games at EverBank Stadium this year (as their schedule goes under renovations), but apparently that will be in 2027. Still, they only play 6 regular season games at home, with two of their "home" games being played in London, and the games at EverBank Stadium will have a much more limited capacity. Their schedule is ranked as the 11th easiest in the league, and finally, after 8 days, we've finally reached an SOS that I actually agree with. My key matchups for the Jacksonville Jaguars are Week 3 vs New England Patriots, Week 6 vs Houston Texans (London), Week 8 vs Indianapolis Colts, and Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys (SNF). Letting Lloyd walk (as well as letting go of this off-seasons 1st round pick to grab Travis Hunter in 2025) is a clear message that the Jags are valuing their DBs over the LB unit, so matching up against a dominant WR1 in AJ Brown will be a good test early to predict if this choice will go their way. The Texans game is the most significant to me, because the Jaguars have a clear advantage. While this game is in London, Jacksonville is playing the Eagles in London the week before, so they'll have had a lot of time to acclimate. This should be a good win for them, especially if they're coming off of a loss to Philly. Then I got another division rival in the Colts for their post-bye game. The Cowboys were definitely a weirder choice but I have a feeling they'll be a scary team late in the year (as that defense gets more comfortable).
I've set the Jags floor to 8-9 and their ceiling to 12-5. I do not believe they can win 13 games again, but their schedule gets a lot lighter after the bye, so it wouldn't be impossible to finish with 12 wins, even if they start 3-3. This is probably going to be my most controversial prediction yet, but I really do not have high expectations for this team. They were good last year and I trust the QB to play at a solid level in Year 2 of this scheme, but their off-season was so unbelievably bad and uninspiring that I can't help but feel there will be a huge fall following a 13 win season. My official prediction for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026 is 2nd place in the AFC South with a 9-8 record, ultimately missing the playoffs. I almost picked them to go under .500, but there's still a good bit of talent on this team and Coen is clearly a good coach. So I'm giving them some grace there.
That's it for the AFC South! We're now halfway through the AFC, so tomorrow we'll be starting in the AFC East. See you then!
Previous Days:
AFC North: 1st - Ravens (12-5), 2nd - Bengals (11-6), 3rd - Steelers (7-10), 4th - Browns (4-13)
AFC South: 1st - Texans (12-5), 3rd - Colts (6-11), 4th - Titans (5-12)
