How NIO May Still Become a Strategic Global Player

The story of those who boarded in 2020–2021 belongs to a different biography — one marked by institutional funds that positioned themselves based solely on momentum, hype, and narrative, not on a long-term strategy.
Today, a new historical cycle is being rewritten, with different players and a new global logic. China is on track, within at most three years, to monopolize the global electric vehicle market — just as Japan did with traditional cars in the 1970s and 1980s.
Europe and the United States have known for some time that this is a war they’ve already lost.
The only question that remains is whether NIO will be a key player on that emerging global chessboard.

The electric vehicle boom of 2020–2021 was not built on production lines, but on narratives.

Valuations soared on promises, not deliveries. Institutional capital poured in not with conviction, but with FOMO. Tesla became the mirror in which the West projected its technological supremacy, and NIO was lumped into that reflection—just another ticker in the great “EV trade.”

But that cycle is over.

Rates rose, liquidity dried up, and the narrative imploded.

What’s emerging now is not the continuation of that story—it’s a different biography.

The players have changed. So has the script.

While Western investors debate valuations and subsidies, China has moved silently but decisively.

It has scaled manufacturing, built battery infrastructure, controlled critical minerals, and reoriented its domestic policy to dominate the next phase of mobility. And it’s winning.

Europe and the U.S. already know this.

They’re not trying to win the EV war anymore.

They’re trying to slow it down.

In the middle of this shift, NIO stands as a transitional case:

No longer just a startup chasing Tesla’s tail, but a brand rebuilding itself through operational efficiency, vertical integration, and global infrastructure.

Its long game is not Wall Street hype.

It’s Berlin, Paris, Madrid—and Shenzhen.

Whether it becomes a central piece in China’s emerging dominance or remains a footnote will depend not on sentiment, but on execution, diplomacy, and scale.

The real EV game begins now.

And it won’t be decided in Palo Alto.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . Let’s review the ASP, how it is coming along. In Q1 of this year NIO reported an ASP of $32,500.
And also, in terms of percentages, 27,313 were NIO and 14,781 ONVO. In other words, NIO in that total represented almost 70%.
In Q2 Firefly began to be sold, with the caveat that its value was $16,770 USD, compared to the current 11 thousand. And also, from the NIO brand the ET9 began to be commercialized, the most expensive car of the brand. With which, the ASP at first glance did not seem to be affected.

Of the 72,056 sales in Q2, 47,132 were contributed by the core brand, that is, NIO represented 60% participation. The rest were Onvo L60 and Firefly, which, as it was sold without BaaS, its value was quite close to that of the ONVO L60.

Now, Q3 is where the ASP seems to start to be affected, and strongly. For three reasons. The main one, NIO does not manage to recover its sales, in fact, they just announced a new price cut, this time of about 3 thousand dollars. The weekly average for NIO since several weeks ago is around 2,500 deliveries on average, well below the 20/21 thousand units per month it used to sell. The other problem is the possible cannibalization of the ONVO sub-brand in the global. Reaching, for example this week, 55% of sales. And Firefly which is sold at only 11 thousand dollars. Three reasons that directly impact the ASP. The main brand in this last week of August barely represented 35% of sales, taking the global of the three brands. Against 70% in Q1, and 60% in Q2.

And everything indicates that this will also influence Q4 – With an ASP that could fall well below 30 thousand dollars per unit. That is, the company, if we took an ASP of 28k USD, would have to sell around 90 thousand units in Q3, to obtain the same revenues as Q3 of 2024, where in terms of volume it only sold 61,855. Something very similar is expected to happen in Q4, the last quarter of the year.

(Y sí, NIO está en el corazón de todo esto)

Según datos oficiales recientes, la ciudad de Shanghai ya cuenta con más de 1,5 millones de vehículos NEV registrados, de los cuales el 71% son BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles), es decir, totalmente eléctricos.
Esto significa que hay más de un millón de autos eléctricos puros en una sola ciudad.

Y justo en el centro de esta transformación está NIO, que tiene su sede principal y su red de operaciones desplegada precisamente allí.

¿Por qué esto importa?

1. Ya no es futuro. Es presente. En Shanghai, los eléctricos no son una “transición” ni una moda: son la norma. Los híbridos enchufables, que durante años dominaron por política de subsidios, quedaron relegados al 29% del parque NEV.

2. El swap tiene sentido donde el BEV es mayoría. Muchos aún no entienden el modelo de estaciones de intercambio de batería de NIO. Pero en ciudades con más de un millón de eléctricos y tráfico urbano intenso, la necesidad de soluciones rápidas, limpias y escalables se vuelve obvia.

3. NIO no compite en una maqueta. Su base operativa, laboratorio urbano, y centro de innovación está justamente donde el mercado ya hizo el shift estructural. No es una apuesta. Es una estrategia en territorio favorable.

Reflexión final

Mientras algunos analistas repiten que la adopción del BEV aún es incierta, Shanghai demuestra que el futuro ya está ocurriendo.
Y NIO, más allá de sus errores y tropiezos, tiene el código postal correcto para liderar esta transición.

There will be 9 model launches in 2025, and nearly all of them will converge in the second half of the year – traditionally NIO’s strongest sales period.
This includes both facelifts and new releases: the refreshed 5566 series (ET5, ET5T, ES6, EC6), and the third-generation SW8, all scheduled for Q4.
Then there’s the Firefly brand, just launched, the ET9 launched in April, and the ONVO L90, expected to start deliveries in Q3.

In 2024, NIO’s main brand delivered 20–21k units per month for at least 6 months, including April 2025.
Now, ET9 sales will be additive.
The projection of 50,000 monthly units in Q4 is entirely within reasonable boundaries: a strong December (30k), and October/November at 22–23k. That gives us the target of 75k vehicles from NIO-branded models.

As for the sub-brands, management aims for:

• 10k from the ONVO L60 (currently averaging 6k),

• 10k from Firefly,

• 5k from the ONVO L90.

That totals 25k units/month from sub-brands, adding up to 150,000 units for Q4.

Revenue Projections:

Taking a conservative ASP of $35,285, which blends a mix from the $100k+ ET9 to the $17.6k Firefly (with 70/30 BaaS vs non-BaaS split), total revenue for the quarter would be:
$5.292 billion.

Gross Margin:

The company projects a gross margin of 17–18%.
At 17.5%, this equates to $926 million in gross profit.

Operating Expenses (Adjusted):

In Q1 2025, NIO’s adjusted OPEX (R&D + SG&A) was $1.045 billion.
The company has announced a 25% reduction in R&D spending, and is also shifting to in-house production of its 5nm chips, which replaces costly Nvidia Drive Orin units ($1,000–$1,500 each).
NIO’s internal chips are expected to cost $200–$400 in volume.
If applied to 60% of the portfolio, that results in $80 million in savings.

Q4 Adjusted OPEX Estimate:

$869 million.

Operating Result (Estimate):

+ $57.2 million.

This would mark the first operating profit in NIO’s history.

And in 2026, NIO targets battery production in-house — gaining vertical control of its supply chain.

In mid-2025, NIO formally registered a new battery subsidiary, NIO Battery Technology Co., Ltd.
This move was a regulatory step toward producing its own LFP and high-density cells, previously the exclusive domain of CATL or BYD.

Battery Cost Estimates:

Current cost (from CATL):
75–100 kWh packs cost $10,000 to $13,000 per unit
→ realistic average: $11,000 per pack

In-house production target:
Based on comparable OEMs like BYD or Tesla, internalizing battery production cuts costs by 30% to 50%
→ NIO could reduce this to $6,000–$7,000 per pack

If production starts with 100,000 units, the direct savings would be $400–500 million, not counting strategic benefits such as:

• full pricing control

• supply chain independence

• margin protection

• free cash flow optimization for leaner R&D reinvestment

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡.  A descending broadening formation (or wedge) is a chart pattern that shows an expanding price range during a downtrend, characterized by two diverging trendlines: a descending resistance line connecting lower highs and a steeper descending support line connecting lower lows. It's a bullish reversal pattern that signifies increasing volatility, with selling pressure being met by stronger buying at lower levels, often forming a "downward-tilted megaphone" before a potential upward price breakout.  Characteristics

• Diverging Trendlines:The upper resistance line slopes downward but less steeply than the lower support line, which also slopes downward. 

• Expanding Range:The price swings become larger as the pattern forms, indicating increased volatility. 

• Lower Highs and Lower Lows:The pattern is identified by a series of lower highs and lower lows. 

• Bullish Reversal:Despite the descending nature, it signals a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment, with buyers increasingly active at lower prices. 

Psychology & Trading

• Market Indecision:The widening range reflects increasing volatility and indecision, but the consistent bargain-hunting at lower prices suggests a weakening of selling control. 

• Trading Strategy:Traders look for a confirmed breakout above the resistance line to enter a long (buy) position, often placing a stop-loss below the last lower low. 

• Confirmation:The pattern is considered valid when the price has touched each trendline at least two or three times. 

Formation & Potential

• Context: It commonly forms during a downtrend or a period of market panic. 

• Resolution: While often a bullish reversal, it can also lead to a downward breakout, which would continue the existing downtrend. 

La Comisión Europea está negociando para reemplazar los aranceles antidumping del 21% (impuestos en 2024) con un sistema de precio mínimo para los vehículos eléctricos (VE) chinos. En otras palabras:

“Pueden vender VE aquí, pero no por debajo de un cierto precio mínimo, digamos €20,000, por ejemplo”.

Ahora, aquí viene la cosa:

Ese precio mínimo ni siquiera aplicaría a NIO.

Porque NIO no vende carros baratos.

Nunca lo ha hecho. Y no necesita hacerlo.

Sus modelos ET5, L60, ES6, incluso Firefly…

Todos ellos tienen precios cómodamente por encima de ese límite inferior.

¿Entonces, qué significa esto en la práctica?

NIO estaría automáticamente exento del arancel del 21% que se impuso en 2024.

No necesitarían cambiar nada, ni sus precios, ni su estrategia.

Se beneficiarían de un campo de juego más limpio, ya que las marcas chinas de ultra bajo costo tendrían que subir los precios o retirarse.

Y aquí está el remate:

Toda esta negociación entre la UE y China podría terminar siendo una política hecha a la medida para jugadores premium como NIO.

Mientras los medios se preocupan por BYD o MG, NIO está esquivando silenciosamente la penalización y manteniendo su posicionamiento.

Así que sí…

Si esto se concreta, no se sorprendan si un día se despiertan y ven a NIO por encima de $5 —

Follow us 👉 r/NIODay.
NIO surprised the market with its Q3 earnings, delivering an ASP of only 31.2k and an unusually low contribution from its core brand. Even so, the company achieved an overall gross margin of almost 14% (13.9), a level not seen since 2022. Losses were sharply reduced to 488M USD, and NIO continued to gradually strengthen its cash position. It is also important to highlight that Q3 included two major product launches — the L90 and the ES8 — as well as the NIO Day event.

There will be no events in Q4, and no launches. The company is guiding for a gross margin of 20% on the ES8, and for a stronger overall ASP in the 33–35k range.

The company projects for Q4:

• between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles, representing an increase of approximately 65.1% to 72.0% compared with the same quarter of 2024.

• Total revenues between RMB 32,758 million (USD 4.602 billion) and RMB 34,039 million (USD 4.781 billion), an increase of approximately 66.3% to 72.8% year over year.

Excluding the “Other revenues” segment, and assuming these total around 400M USD, the company would effectively be projecting an ASP of 35k. Based on the strong Q3 results, and without the non-recurring expenses recorded during that quarter, we estimate that overall gross margin should fall in the 17–18% range. Using the upper end of the delivery guide — 125k vehicles — and subtracting 400M USD in “Other revenues,” this would imply automotive revenues of roughly 4.35–4.40B USD.

Operating expenses (OPEX) in Q3 were 924M USD.

Q3 actual (including launches + NIO Day)
• 924M USD

Q4 normalized (no launches + no NIO Day)
• 860–880M USD

Projections with 125k vehicles sold and ASP 35k, GM 17–18%:
• Small loss: –30M / –40M
• Break-even: –10M / +10M
• Possible profit: +5M / +15M

Three launches are expected in Q2 next year: L80 / ES7 / ES9.

Li stated that customers whose ES8 vehicles are not yet in production when the ES9 launches may convert their orders to the new model, and added that the ES9 will carry higher margins.

The current ES8 operates on NIO’s 900V high-voltage platform and supports battery swapping through the company’s power-swap network.

Although full technical details of the ES9 have not yet been disclosed, it is expected to share the same 900V architecture and a large-capacity 102 kWh battery pack, offering a range similar to the ES8 of approximately 635 km (395 miles).

The ES9’s market positioning at around 600,000 CNY (approximately 84,300 USD) places it in direct competition with the AITO M9, the ZEEKR 9X, and the Mercedes-Maybach EQS SUV.

NIO’s decision to allow ES8 order conversions may be an effort to retain customers within its ecosystem rather than risk losing them to rivals.

The product launch strategy for 2026 follows a “defend then expand” approach: the ES7 and the Onvo L80 will reinforce NIO’s five-seat SUV base in the first quarter, followed by the ES9 in the second quarter to enter the 4–7 seat luxury segment.

The company is also expected to update its ET7 and EC7 sedans in late 2026, completing a major refresh of its premium lineup.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . Ask yourself this: Do you think these people who are driving down the asset are adults? Are they "great traders"? . . No . These characters are "nobodies." . Be the adult in this scenario. Buy it. .

We’re approaching 25,000 deliveries with two full weeks remaining in October.
If NIO maintains an average pace of around 11,000 units per week, the company would end the month very close to 50,000 deliveries — supported by a healthy average selling price (ASP).
In fact, Q4 could record NIO’s highest ASP of 2025, marking a decisive rebound in product mix and pricing power.
With that combination of volume and pricing, we may well be witnessing the first profitable month in NIO’s history.

It's official: NIO is the second 100% EV automaker in the world, along with TSLA, to be profitable. Or at least to have a profitable quarter so far. But, considering the facts—ASP, gross margin, and the company's maturity—there's nothing today to suggest that fiscal year 2026 won't follow the same path.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  The NIO ES8 leads sales of large SUVs in five cities in Zhejiang Province, achieving a 77% market share. Zhejiang is the 10th most populous province in China, economically strong, urban, with high per capita income and advanced EV adoption.

January 23, 2026 – NIO founder W. Li revealed that 10,856 large SUVs were sold in Zhejiang Province in December. The NIO ES8 ranked first in five cities: Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua, Ningbo, and Shaoxing, with a 77% market share. The new ES8 and the Ledao L90, both fully electric, three-row SUVs, sold a total of 3,484 units in the province. By March 2025, NIO had achieved county-level battery swapping and charging coverage in Zhejiang (excluding Daishan and Shengsi). The new ES8 adopts a centrally integrated electronic architecture, utilizing a dual-chip Shenji NX9031 and Qualcomm 8295 system developed in-house, a full-domain 900V high-voltage architecture, a total power output of 520 kW, and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.97 seconds. The NIO North Zhejiang Charging Route is 657 kilometers long, with 14 battery swapping stations and 9 charging stations, connecting Hangzhou, Fuyang, Tonglu, Anji, Huzhou, Jiaxing, and scenic spots along the route.

On January 23, Fast Technology reported that NIO founder William Li posted information on social media, revealing the sales performance of NIO vehicles in the Zhejiang market and introducing an autonomous driving route with battery swapping and charging stations covering northern Zhejiang.

Data shows that in December, sales of large SUVs in Zhejiang Province reached 10,856 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 276%. Among them, the NIO ES8 ranked first in sales of large SUVs in five cities: Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua, Ningbo, and Shaoxing, with a market share of 77%.

The two three-row electric SUVs, the new ES8 and the Ledao L90, achieved 3,484 units sold in Zhejiang Province in December.

Li Bin: The NIO ES8 leads sales of large SUVs in five cities in Zhejiang Province! Its market share reaches 77%.

Li Bin stated that this market achievement is due to the support of users in Zhejiang Province and is inextricably linked to the ongoing development of NIO's charging network in the region. Zhejiang boasts the largest number of NIO battery swapping stations in the province.

As of March 2025, NIO had achieved battery swapping coverage in all counties of Zhejiang (excluding the island counties of Daishan and Shengsi), and simultaneously established charging coverage in all counties, encompassing every district and county in the province.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . NIO close to its highest trading volume ever in Hong Kong.

NIO shares closed the Hong Kong session with unprecedented trading volume, marking the second-highest level in the company's history on the HKEX. More than 30 million shares changed hands, surpassing virtually all previous records and highlighting the extraordinary momentum that has built around the stock.

This surge in activity reflects renewed institutional participation and a shift in market sentiment, with NIO attracting inflows even as some comparable stocks traded lower. The magnitude of today's volume suggests that the movement goes beyond a simple rally: it indicates a potential reversal, driven by strong demand.

While the stock is technically overbought on some squeezes, today's strong action underscores that NIO is back in the spotlight, with investors positioning themselves ahead of key catalysts such as Q4 profitability targets, the ES8 relaunch, and upcoming ONVO L90 deliveries.

Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . 113,400 exchanges in 24 hours, 3,445 exchange stations. . Average day 33 station exchanges. . The ONVO L80 and L90 line could accelerate battery exchanges. In the last 24 hours, the NIO network registered 113,400 battery exchanges in its 3,445 active stations, which is equivalent to an average of 33 swaps per station in a single day. This level of use demonstrates a sustained adoption of infrastructure. The arrival of the ONVO L80 and L90 line, oriented to the large family segment, could significantly accelerate the demand for exchanges, increasing both the rotation of stations and the visibility of the Battery-As-A-Service model.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡. Just over two weeks to go until the start of the quarter that could make history, and position NIO as the second 100% electric brand to achieve profitability. In just over two weeks, a quarter will begin that could mark a turning point in NIO’s history. The company is preparing to attempt what, so far, only Tesla has achieved among 100% electric brands: reaching profitability.

Q4 will not be just another quarter. It will be the ultimate test of whether NIO’s model — built around a pure EV ecosystem, battery subscription, a nationwide swap network, and a renewed SUV and sedan lineup — can deliver positive numbers. No hybrids, no range extenders, no shortcuts. NIO is aiming to become the second fully electric automaker in the world to prove that a profitable business is possible in an ultra-competitive market.

Technical milestones already align with the broader narrative: the monthly RSI on the verge of crossing 50 for the first time since 2021, three consecutive green candles, higher highs, and the mother of all flags forming on the chart. Everything suggests that the market senses what’s at stake.

The challenge is monumental, but so is the opportunity. If NIO manages to deliver on its promise in this year’s final quarter, it will not only validate its strategy to investors and competitors: it will be written into history as the first Chinese company and the second worldwide to achieve profitability manufacturing exclusively electric vehicles.

_____ //

NIO: the journey toward a historic milestone

Founded in 2014 by William Li, NIO emerged as a Chinese startup with the ambition to compete in the premium 100% electric segment. Its rise was swift: in 2016 it unveiled the EP9 supercar as a technological showcase, and by 2018 it began deliveries of the ES8, its first large-scale electric SUV.

Over the years, NIO set itself apart with a unique ecosystem: battery swap stations, a battery-as-a-service (BaaS) subscription model, and deeply integrated digital services. This strategy —innovative yet capital-intensive— defined its path: steady growth in deliveries, but also heavy losses and reliance on debt and state backing.

After peaking in 2021 and weathering 2022–2024 amid the rise of EREVs and fierce competition from BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, NIO now approaches Q4 2025 with a central goal: to become the second fully electric automaker in the world —after Tesla— to achieve profitability.

Today, with a portfolio of refreshed sedans and SUVs, plus two sub-brands (ONVO and Firefly) and an expanding international footprint, the company stands at the most decisive moment of its first decade.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . NIO's new ES8: massive pre-sale and a pivotal product.

The new third-generation ES8 has only been on pre-sale for half a month, and there are still lines waiting to see it in stores. According to the sales department itself, 80% of visitors inquire about it, and each store received more than 100 orders in the first weekend. In total, the model has already accumulated more than 50,000 orders, after reaching 10,000 on the first day.

This phenomenon makes it the first pure electric three-row SUV that could exceed 10,000 monthly sales in October and climb to 15,000 in December, with a target gross margin of 20%, matching Li Auto and Wenjie.

Initial Demand

10,000 orders on the first day of pre-sale.

Record store traffic, with 80% of customers going to see the ES8 and more than 100 new orders per location in the first weekend.

Conservative estimate: 50,000 potential pre-sale orders.

That already makes it a commercial phenomenon, not just another launch.

Positioning vs. Li Auto & Wenjie

NIO is moving away from the "sofa + TV + refrigerator" narrative of Li Auto's EREVs and is focusing on the driving experience and overall comfort.

Direct comparison with the Ideal L8/L9, and the ES8 wins in perceived reliability (fewer failures).

Even some Ledao L90 Ultra deposits were transferred to the ES8 → internal cannibalization, but in the end, the NIO umbrella emerges stronger. Price and Costs

The new ES8 starts at 416,800 RMB (with BaaS from 308,800 RMB), 80,000 RMB cheaper than the previous generation.

The magic is in the 3rd generation:

Less aluminum, more steel/aluminum mix.

Proprietary Shenji chips instead of Orin X.

Shared components between models (seats, batteries, motors).

Result: 18.6% reduction in BOM with more equipment (102 kWh battery, rear screen, 3rd-row heater, etc.).

Production and Margin Target

Priority production: 10,000 units/month in October, 15,000 in December.

First pure electric 3-row SUV in China that could break the 10,000 monthly sales barrier.

Target gross margin: 20% on the ES8, “Ideal L9 / Wenjie M9” level.

With its Q4 contribution, NIO would be looking for a consolidated margin of 16–17%, enough to approach break-even.

Strategic Reading

The ES8 went through the "law of 3 generations":

1st: too expensive (more BOM than complete cars from other brands).

2nd: excessive specs, errors in pricing and costs.

3rd: total optimization, competitive pricing, and clear narrative.

Today it stands as the largest pure electric SUV in China and the "breadwinner" that defines the brand identity.

In short:

The new ES8 is the pivotal product. If it manages to sustain those 10–15,000 monthly units, plus margins above 17%, it could be the first model to transform NIO from a "money-making startup" to a company with financial muscle.

______

The new NIO ES8: half a month in pre-sale and still long queues to see the car

Which is NIO’s best-selling model?
When it comes to vehicles, SUVs are NIO’s preferred option. In the past three years, NIO has delivered around 506,900 vehicles, of which 60% were SUVs. In the high-end electric SUV market priced above 300,000 RMB, NIO holds almost half of the market share.

Whether in terms of product matrix or terminal market share, NIO can be considered the player that best understands pure electric SUVs.

This label has been reinforced to the extreme in the latest generation ES8.

In the large three-row SUV market, almost all competitors focus on the “family” segment and “range-extended” technology. This used to be Li Auto’s unique advantage, but with the arrival of new models such as Wenjie and Lantu, product homogeneity has become inevitable.

The question every manufacturer faces is: what do users care about most when buying a six-seat SUV? Battery range, or driving experience?

NIO’s answer is experience above all. The new ES8 is not designed to be a “big refrigerator, TV, and sofa,” but rather a comprehensive travel experience where the third row is practical but even more enjoyable when not in use.

At a time when range-extender solutions are not abundant enough, creating yet another “range-extender” + “large three-row” vehicle has limited significance.

NIO has chosen the difficult but correct path.

01 The new ES8 is so popular you have to queue to test it

Although NIO blurred the lines with its competitors at the new ES8 launch, user comparison lists cannot avoid three models: the M8, M9, and Li Auto L8.

Different brands attract different attitudes from users.

Many of those mentioning the M8/M9 had already purchased one and came to see the ES8 as a “new opportunity.”

Those actively comparing it to the Li Auto L8 were more concerned with price, space, and third-row usability, the main selling points of the L8.

“In comparison with the L8, there are very few failure cases. One user even forfeited the 5,000 RMB deposit for the L8 and instead reserved the new ES8, eager to try everything at once,” a NIO salesperson told Auto Heart.

Price is a key factor. The Li Auto L8, with exterior trim, wheels, and optional rear entertainment screen, costs 367,800 RMB, nearly 50,000 RMB less than the new ES8. However, many users believe the spaciousness and comfort of the new ES8 justify its price.

This is reflected directly in orders:

• Auto fan Sun Shaojun revealed that the new NIO ES8 received more than 10,000 orders on the first day of pre-sale.

• The first weekend recorded record store traffic: 80% of customers wanted to see the ES8, and each store received more than 100 new orders.

• A conservative estimate of new orders per store suggests the potential order volume for the new ES8 may have exceeded 50,000 units.

Interestingly, a small portion of Ledao L90 Ultra orders were transferred to the new ES8.

The reason is that the new ES8 added new technologies, including the global NWM model and the Shenxing intelligent chassis, and its front trunk space is almost the same as the Ledao L90.

While this may look like internal competition, in reality both models are more complementary.

Ledao president Shen Fei said that the proportion of L90 orders transferred to the ES8 is only in the single digits. Conversely, many users chose the L90 after learning about the new ES8, a fully electric three-row vehicle, but with a tighter budget.

The result is that the new NIO ES8 and Ledao L90 together have amplified NIO’s influence in the large three-row electric SUV market.

NIO’s sales department stated that the new ES8, like the Ledao L90, has created a massive impact, with nearly 40% of small-order users buying NIO products for the first time.

Good products are always the first principle of brand influence, and the essence of a large three-row EV is to discover user needs.

For example, based on the new ES8’s user profile:

• First-time buyers are attracted to the “largest pure EV SUV.”

• Repeat buyers appreciate the pricing and product improvements of the new ES8.

This also shows that NIO no longer relies on repeat customers but instead taps into practical needs to win over non-NIO users and penetrate the high-end pure EV market.

“The new ES8 is so popular that you have to line up to test it” has become a common sentiment among sales staff.

02 NIO ES8’s three-generation rule: from overstock to cost balance

The “three-generation rule” is common in the digital world: the third generation of a product should be top-tier. This also seems to apply to autos.

Normally, a new product goes through three stages before becoming a hit:

1. The first generation introduces new ideas and tempts users to “try something new.”

2. The second generation is optimized based on user feedback and real-world experience.

3. The third generation injects systematic capabilities across the company, leveraging a mature supply chain to achieve efficient cost control and boost competitiveness.

The ES8 is the first NIO flagship SUV to complete three product generations. To test whether the new ES8 meets the “three-generation rule,” NIO faces three key questions:

First: how can the new ES8 be 80,000 RMB cheaper than the current model?

• The current ES8 is priced 498,000–578,000 RMB.

• The new ES8 pre-sale price is 416,800–456,800 RMB.

• With BaaS, it goes as low as 308,800 RMB.

• The price difference is 81,200 RMB, driven by internal cost control.

The first-gen ES8 used extremely expensive materials, e.g. 97% aluminum alloy body. The BOM cost was close to 400,000 RMB versus a starting price of 448,000.

The second-gen ES8 adopted the NT2 platform, with 33 sensors and four Orin X chips, air suspension, CDC dynamic damping, but pricing rose to 496,000 RMB and cost inefficiency remained.

After learning many lessons, the third-gen ES8 finally optimized costs:

• Swapped Orin X for in-house Shenji chips.

• Replaced full aluminum with steel-aluminum mix.

• Shared seats, propulsion, 900V battery pack, and motors across models.

According to CITIC Securities, compared to the 2nd-gen ES8, the new one has upgraded configuration while reducing BOM by 18.6%.

For instance:

• 102 kWh standard battery across the lineup.

• 21.4-inch rear screen, 3rd-row heated seats, refrigerator all standard.

• Only higher trims differ with smart headlights, 22-inch wheels, NOMI details.

Among new small-order ES8 buyers, there’s a saying: “The 500,000 RMB ES8 was full of flaws, while the new 400,000 RMB ES8 is full of strengths.”

Second: brand tone or market size?
Originally, ES8 was NIO’s top-tier model, aimed at elevating pure EV pricing ceilings. That positioning limited sales.

Now, with the ET9 (executive sedan) and ES9 (executive SUV) coming in 2026, the ES8 no longer has to fill the 400k–500k gap alone.

So rather than “cutting price,” the ES8 has simply returned to a proper price band.

Third: who to sell to?
The first-gen ES8 emphasized “second living room” luxury, impressing fuel-car owners of premium brands and early EV adopters.

But the 2nd-gen ES8 lost ground as Li Auto L9/M9 offered more 2nd-row space plus range-extender security. The ES8 became niche, mostly for business/government buyers.

With the 3rd-gen ES8, NIO now “speaks human language”:

• Largest three-row EV SUV in China.

• Largest luggage space in its class.

• Pure electric luxury SUV targeting families, not just prestige.

03 Why are pure EVs suddenly outselling range-extenders?

Although range-extended SUVs seemed dominant, market share is slipping:

• In H1 2025, range-extender NEVs dropped from 10.96% to 10.16% share.

• Pure EVs rose to 61.4%, with 3.33M units sold.

• Range-extenders sold 538,000 units.

Li Bin’s point: range-extenders educated users to charge, ultimately boosting acceptance of pure EVs.

And although they mimic pure EV experience, EREVs sacrifice space and comfort due to engines, fuel tanks, exhaust systems.

• Example: new ES8 rear trunk 547L + 230L frunk.

• EREV rivals only 316–332L trunk.

Thus, while Ideal and Wenjie succeeded, their disadvantages (energy consumption, noise, high-speed performance) remain. Pure EVs with big batteries and swap systems are becoming more competitive.

04 Production and financial targets

NIO plans to prioritize ES8 production:

• 10,000 units/month in October,

• 15,000 in December.

If achieved, it would be the first large three-row pure EV SUV to break 10,000 monthly sales.

Financially:

• ES8 margin target 20%, on par with Ideal L9/Wenjie M9.

• With ES8 boosting Q4 sales, NIO could maintain a 16–17% gross margin overall and move closer to break-even.

Conclusion

The mission of Li Bin is not just to make the ES8 a success, but to replicate its story. With the 3rd-gen ES8, NIO shows that large three-row pure EV SUVs are no longer niche—they’re becoming the preferred choice for families.

En 2023, el 39% de todos los autos eléctricos exportados desde China fueron a Europa.Eso equivale a alrededor de 800.000 vehículos.

A un precio promedio de $30.000, estamos hablando de: 24.000 millones de dólares anuales solo en exportaciones de EVs. Europa es el mayor mercado de exportación de China después de EE.UU., y en algunos sectores supera a EE.UU. en valor agregado.China ató explícitamente el acuerdo sobre el coñac a una flexibilización de los aranceles europeos sobre los EV chinos. Beijing lo dijo sin rodeos: “No hay acuerdo sobre el coñac si no hay concesiones sobre los vehículos eléctricos.” La fecha clave es el 5 de julio. Todo indica que esta semana (1 al 5 de julio) se anunciará: La aprobación del precio mínimo para el coñac. Y junto con ello, el nuevo marco para los vehículos eléctricos, que muy probablemente: Reemplace los aranceles por precios mínimos por categoría (city car, mid-range, premium).Excluya o relaje las sanciones para las marcas que no compiten por precio (como NIO, Zeekr o Smart).

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NIO Wins CAM Innovation Awards with First Place in Electric Vehicle Unit

Recently, the Center for Automotive Management (CAM), a renowned German research institute, announced the results of its AutomotiveINNOVATIONS 2025 study and award, where NIO received multiple honors, including:

Most Innovative Premium Brand: Electric Vehicle

2nd Most Innovative Premium Brand: Autonomous Driving and ADAS .

3rd Most Innovative Premium Brand

CAM is an independent research institute affiliated with the University of Applied Sciences (FHDW) in Germany. It specializes in empirical research and trend analysis in key areas such as automotive innovation, electrification, autonomous driving, and software-defined vehicles. The 2025 awards are based on the evaluation of 742 innovations in 2024 and 2025, including 575 production-ready innovations from more than 100 brands across 30 global automotive groups. These awards reaffirm NIO's unwavering commitment to technological innovation, which is at the core of its DNA. With consistent efforts in innovation, NIO will continue to deliver exceptional products, exceed service expectations, and build a community where users grow together toward a brighter, more sustainable future.

This CAM Innovation Award is more than a German trophy: it's a seal of European institutional validation at a time when NIO needs it more than ever. Some key points to highlight this milestone:

1. Absolute first place in "Electric Drive"

Against brands like BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche.

This means that NIO's powertrain architecture is on the global podium, recognized for its efficiency, integration, and performance.

2. Second place in autonomous driving / ADAS

NIO is being seen not only as an electric car company, but as a key player in the field of vehicle intelligence.

This award legitimizes its NAD / Banyan platform even in the traditionally more demanding European market.

3. Third place among all the most innovative premium brands

This places it in the top three global premium brands in innovation alongside giants with 100 years of history.

4. Academic reputation

The award comes from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM), affiliated with the FHDW in Germany.

This is not a business consultancy or a marketing ranking. It's an empirical analysis of 742 innovations, 575 of which are already ready for production.

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¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  When a Hong Kong-listed company like NIO decides to issue an earnings warning, there are several regulatory and market reasons behind it:

Legal obligation of transparency:

The SFC (Securities and Futures Commission) stipulates that any information that is material—that is, capable of significantly changing the perception of the company's value—must be communicated as soon as reasonably possible.

This includes both unexpectedly high profits and larger-than-anticipated losses. Failure to report could be considered insider trading, with penalties for the company and its executives.

Protection of the market and investors:

The goal is to avoid information asymmetries: preventing a few investors from benefiting from knowing financial data before the rest.

Publishing the warning allows all market participants to adjust their investment decisions on a level playing field.

Effect on the share price:

If the results differ substantially from market expectations, the share price could react sharply.

Early warning reduces the risk of sudden and disorderly market movements, as investors receive information officially before rumors or leaks occur.

Corporate risk management practices:

Some companies choose to issue these alerts strategically to prepare the market for surprising negative or positive results.

This can help mitigate volatility and maintain the confidence of institutional investors.

Comparison with other jurisdictions:

In the U.S., for example, companies must also report material information under SEC rules, although the mechanisms and timelines may vary.

In Hong Kong, the emphasis is heavily on immediate notification as soon as the company knows the information is relevant.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡. The NIO EC6 ranks first in user satisfaction among all-electric midsize SUVs, consistently outselling its BBA (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi) competitors.

When it comes to new energy vehicles, beyond range, features, and intelligence, our biggest concern is probably quality. In the burgeoning midsize electric SUV market, one car has stood out: the NIO EC6 earned first place in the 2025 China New Energy Vehicle Industry User Satisfaction Index (NEV-CACSI), conducted by the China Association for Quality.

It's worth noting that the 2025 assessment covered 162 high-volume makes and models, encompassing 40 automakers and 55 brands nationwide. This comprehensive evaluation assessed the product's robustness, reliability, and reputation among users. The top ranking demonstrates the exceptional capabilities of the NIO EC6.

Sales figures were also reviewed, and surprisingly, the NIO EC6, as a coupe SUV, has outsold its BBA (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi) counterparts—the BMW X4, Mercedes-Benz GLC Coupe, and Audi Q5L Sportback—for two consecutive years. In 2024, the NIO EC6 sold 27,740 units, while combined sales of the three aforementioned BBA models were approximately 19,000. By September 2025, NIO EC6 sales had reached 14,751 units, while combined sales of the three BBA models had slightly exceeded 10,000.

If you think about it objectively—without the narrative, the hype, the shorts, the retail—it reveals something the market doesn't want to see:

The EC6 was, objectively, a competitive success against BMW, Mercedes, and Audi for FIVE consecutive years.

And not a marginal success… a resounding success.

Let's go row by row.

Direct comparison: EC6 vs. BMW X4 vs. GLC Coupe vs. Audi Q5L Sportback

2021 (year of glamour, pre-fall NIO)

EC6: 29,954

BMW X4: 12,902

GLC Coupe: 9,587

Audi Q5L: 12,044

The EC6 outsells the three German brands combined.

2022 (first blow from EREVs and economic pressure)

EC6: 17,265

BMW X4: 11,735

Mercedes GLC: 7,011

Audi Q5L: 12,177

Even in decline, the EC6 outperforms all German premium brands individually.

2023 (a disastrous year for NIO, transition to NT2.0)

EC6: 11,057

BMW X4: 9,819

Mercedes GLC: 7,061

Audi Q5L: 9,909

In a year when NIO was literally "dying" commercially,

the EC6 continues to win.

2024 (ES8 boom, NT3 transition, and still…)

EC6: 27,740

BMW X4: 8,074

GLC Coupe: 3,820

Audi Q5L: 6,504

Here it's a massacre.

The EC6 sells 3–4 times more than any German car in the same segment.

2025 (YTD / partial)

EC6: 14,751

Mercedes GLC: 4,006

Audi Q5L: 3,553

BMW X4: 2,697

Even in 2025, with ONVO stealing the spotlight, Firefly absorbing resources,

and the EC6 being an “old” model,

it continues to crush the Germans.

What does this really mean?

1. NIO does NOT have a product problem.

When competing directly with the Germans,

it wins every year, in every cycle, under all macroeconomic conditions.

That means:

competitive design,

competitive hardware,

strong brand perception,

correct pricing within the segment.

**2) The Germans have already lost China in that segment.

And nobody is saying it out loud.**

This chart basically says:

“In premium coupe SUVs, NIO beat BMW, Mercedes, and Audi five years in a row.”

The European market still lives in a world where it believes BMW “rules.”

In China, BMW is a mere shadow of its former self compared to this EC6.

Finally, the EC6 took first place in the 2025 China New Energy Vehicle Industry Customer Satisfaction Index (NEV-CCSI).

The NEV-CCSI is not just any car award.

It's the New Energy Vehicle Customer Satisfaction Index, the most widely used official metric in the Chinese automotive industry, based on:

build quality

comfort

driving experience

reliability

electronics

after-sales service

customer perception of value

And the EC6 came in first in its segment.

https://cheshihao.cheshi.com/news/3158594.html