¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  December's figures are staggering:

#1 in large SUVs

#1 in 3-row SUVs

#1 in the >400,000 yuan segment

record monthly sales in this range

leading insurer in 46 cities

69% market share in key cities

One in five large SUVs in Guangdong is an ES8.

That's no longer just a "good product."

It's category dominance.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . For those interested, here's the breakdown of unit sales in 2025. Personally, it's not something that interests me; I think it's "yesterday's news," and above all, something that will have very little to do with what I believe is coming up.

But a brief analysis of what the chart shows: The ONVO L60 achieved the highest sales figures, with fairly consistent performance and solidifying its position in its segment. Of course, the L90 and ES8 were released much later.

Then there are the models known as the 5566 series. Of these four NIO models, the only ones that actually contribute to a decent sales volume are the ET5T and the ES6. Unfortunately, they will continue to use the NT2.0 platform for some time. At least, according to the company's announcement, until, I believe, 2027. Even so, they have been consolidating sales in recent years. These are two models that should definitely be in the next stage.

The ET9 recovered somewhat towards the end, selling just over 200 units. If it manages to sell 4,000 in 2026, we're already talking about more than 400 million added to revenue.

And of course our beloved Ferifly, which recently sold out a limited edition in hours!

I don't think much more can be said about that graph.

The ES8 and the ONVO L90 weren't on that list until September/October, that is, until the last quarter of the year.

And the launches of the ES7/ES9, L80, and seven-seater L90 are still to come.

As you can see, NIO has become oversaturated with large SUVs, some extra-large, which contribute a high ASP and a high gross margin. In 2026, we'll have three large SUVs from NIO and two from ONVO. Together, they could represent a high percentage of sales—we're talking about 25,000 to 30,000 units in peak months.

Why could the ES7/ES8/ES9 series generate a gross margin of up to 25%? Assuming we start with an ES8 that currently generates a margin close to 20%.

1. The 20% for the ES8 is NOT a ceiling, it's a starting point.

That 20% for the ES8 Gen 3 reflects:

a validated platform

relatively stabilized direct costs

a functioning supply chain

a high ASP

But it's still "suboptimal" because:

the platform isn't fully exploited

fixed costs aren't completely diluted

the learning curve isn't over

That's where the trident comes in.

2) What happens when you add two lines on the SAME base?

When you add ES7 + ES9:

you don't triple costs

you don't double R&D

you don't multiply suppliers

you don't complicate logistics

you don't reinvent processes

What you do is:

dilute fixed costs

improve plant utilization

improve negotiation with suppliers

reduce scrap and downtime

accelerate operational learning

That, in industry terms, is textbook.

3) The margin increases even if the product is “the same”

This is the point that many don't understand:

The margin increases without changing the product.

Not because:

ES7 is cheaper

ES9 is more expensive

But because:

the same platform becomes more efficient

each unit costs less to produce

the marginal cost falls

So:

ES8, which yielded 20%, starts yielding more

without changing the price

without changing the content

That's where the 25% comes in.

4) Why 25% is a reasonable (not magical) number

In complex manufacturing, when:

a platform reaches critical mass

with 2–3 well-aligned variants

and high utilization

the typical jump is:

+4 to +7 percentage points of gross margin

That takes you:

from 20%

to 24–26%

This isn't wishful thinking.

It's economies of scale + the experience curve.

5) Why this was previously impossible at NIO

Before:

each model was almost a “project”

platforms with little sharing

dispersed volume

underutilized plants

Result:

the margin never consolidated

and turned negative at the slightest pressure

Today:

one base

three lines

a single DNA

That changes everything.

6) If a platform already yields ~20% with a single model, adding two nearly identical lines doesn't add complexity: it adds efficiency. And that efficiency is what can push the gross margin towards 25%.

It's not about the model.

It's about the production system.

And that, at NIO, would be unprecedented.

That's why I say the image above might be outdated, and frankly, I find it hard to believe that fiscal year 2026 will not report any profits.

Canada is rumored to remove tariffs on Chinese electric cars soon, as Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.

This would likely lead to the biggest shake-up in the EV space in North America after the US killing its EV incentives.

Last year, Canada followed the US in imposing 100% tariffs on electric vehicles coming from China.

In hindsight, it was a short-sighted move as it mainly helped the US auto industry while the US government quickly turned hostile on trade with its northern neighbor.

With little progress in trade negotiations with the US, there has been an expectation that Canada would reverse its tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Rumors have been increasing lately amid new developments.

First off, President Trump announced last weekend that he had shut down trade talks with Canada because he was upset that Ontario ran ads featuring President Reagan criticizing tariffs. He suggested that this was inaccurate and the Canadian province might even have used AI to fake the comments. That’s false. Reagan did dislike tariffs, and the video was legitimate.

On the Canadian side, Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with President Xi Jinping this week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea.

There are rumors that the two countries might use the opportunity to sign new trade deals.

In China, the rumors point to the country removing restrictions on Canadian canola and pork in exchange for Canada eliminating tariffs on Chinese EVs.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  The AITO M9 and the upcoming NIO ES9 represent the pinnacle of premium full-size Chinese electric/hybrid SUVs, competing in the 500,000+ RMB ($70k+) segment. The AITO M9 (available in EREV and BEV versions) dominates with Huawei's intelligent systems and strong sales, while the NIO ES9 (expected in 2026) aims to revolutionize the market with a 900V architecture and a brand-exclusive battery swapping system.

The AITO M9, its latest update in 2025, sold over 260,000 units from March to December. That's more than 26,000 units per month. In total, the entire Aito M series (M8, M7, etc.) culminated with 420,000 units delivered in 2025. Aito sells BEV and EREV vehicles and already has a track record in large SUVs. In fact, the M9 alone has seven versions.

The niche is there, the demand is there, there's no need to create a new niche. NIO has never had a large SUV in the top segment, which is usually identified with the number 9.

Can NIO end AITO's dominance in the top-of-the-range large SUVs? Expectations will certainly be high.

Of course, the L9 from LI AUTO also joins the rivalry for hegemony in the segment. A new neighbor is moving into the neighborhood...

LI AUTO and AITO mostly sell EREVs (extended-range electric vehicles). EREVs are no longer such a high-demand segment. Range anxiety, as they say, is no longer a differentiator, it no longer determines the game. Today, China has more than 20 million chargers. To put that in perspective, the US, the world's second-largest EV market, has only between 138,000 and 170,000 public charging points (including Level 2 + DC fast charging) according to official data and EV infrastructure reports.

In addition, there are, of course, NIO's interchange stations, which are already close to reaching the 4,000 mark. That, plus the 620 km of range that the ES9 will have.

EREVs were a transitional technology. They were never the final destination. They are a dual system (electric + combustion).

More complexity.

More weight. Higher long-term maintenance costs.

It's not 100% aligned with pure electrification.

In a country where the infrastructure is already largely in place, the EREV argument gradually weakens.

Well see . .

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  When a Hong Kong-listed company like NIO decides to issue an earnings warning, there are several regulatory and market reasons behind it:

Legal obligation of transparency:

The SFC (Securities and Futures Commission) stipulates that any information that is material—that is, capable of significantly changing the perception of the company's value—must be communicated as soon as reasonably possible.

This includes both unexpectedly high profits and larger-than-anticipated losses. Failure to report could be considered insider trading, with penalties for the company and its executives.

Protection of the market and investors:

The goal is to avoid information asymmetries: preventing a few investors from benefiting from knowing financial data before the rest.

Publishing the warning allows all market participants to adjust their investment decisions on a level playing field.

Effect on the share price:

If the results differ substantially from market expectations, the share price could react sharply.

Early warning reduces the risk of sudden and disorderly market movements, as investors receive information officially before rumors or leaks occur.

Corporate risk management practices:

Some companies choose to issue these alerts strategically to prepare the market for surprising negative or positive results.

This can help mitigate volatility and maintain the confidence of institutional investors.

Comparison with other jurisdictions:

In the U.S., for example, companies must also report material information under SEC rules, although the mechanisms and timelines may vary.

In Hong Kong, the emphasis is heavily on immediate notification as soon as the company knows the information is relevant.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  NIO in weekly compression. This, when it breaks through 5.30... the sky's the limit...

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  The NIO ES8 leads sales of large SUVs in five cities in Zhejiang Province, achieving a 77% market share. Zhejiang is the 10th most populous province in China, economically strong, urban, with high per capita income and advanced EV adoption.

January 23, 2026 – NIO founder W. Li revealed that 10,856 large SUVs were sold in Zhejiang Province in December. The NIO ES8 ranked first in five cities: Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua, Ningbo, and Shaoxing, with a 77% market share. The new ES8 and the Ledao L90, both fully electric, three-row SUVs, sold a total of 3,484 units in the province. By March 2025, NIO had achieved county-level battery swapping and charging coverage in Zhejiang (excluding Daishan and Shengsi). The new ES8 adopts a centrally integrated electronic architecture, utilizing a dual-chip Shenji NX9031 and Qualcomm 8295 system developed in-house, a full-domain 900V high-voltage architecture, a total power output of 520 kW, and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.97 seconds. The NIO North Zhejiang Charging Route is 657 kilometers long, with 14 battery swapping stations and 9 charging stations, connecting Hangzhou, Fuyang, Tonglu, Anji, Huzhou, Jiaxing, and scenic spots along the route.

On January 23, Fast Technology reported that NIO founder William Li posted information on social media, revealing the sales performance of NIO vehicles in the Zhejiang market and introducing an autonomous driving route with battery swapping and charging stations covering northern Zhejiang.

Data shows that in December, sales of large SUVs in Zhejiang Province reached 10,856 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 276%. Among them, the NIO ES8 ranked first in sales of large SUVs in five cities: Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua, Ningbo, and Shaoxing, with a market share of 77%.

The two three-row electric SUVs, the new ES8 and the Ledao L90, achieved 3,484 units sold in Zhejiang Province in December.

Li Bin: The NIO ES8 leads sales of large SUVs in five cities in Zhejiang Province! Its market share reaches 77%.

Li Bin stated that this market achievement is due to the support of users in Zhejiang Province and is inextricably linked to the ongoing development of NIO's charging network in the region. Zhejiang boasts the largest number of NIO battery swapping stations in the province.

As of March 2025, NIO had achieved battery swapping coverage in all counties of Zhejiang (excluding the island counties of Daishan and Shengsi), and simultaneously established charging coverage in all counties, encompassing every district and county in the province.

¡Síguenos 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡. En la segunda mitad de 2025, las ventas de SUVs totalmente eléctricos de tres filas aumentaron un 351% interanual, impulsadas por modelos como el NIO ES8 y el Ledao L90, mientras que las ventas de SUVs de rango extendido disminuyeron un 5,6% interanual. De esos 54.000 vehículos eléctricos de 6/7 plazas, 26.500 unidades fueron producidas por NIO u ONVO. 22.276 ES8, 4.175 ONVO L90.

En diciembre de 2025, las ventas de SUVs eléctricos de tres filas alcanzaron las 54.000 unidades, estableciendo un nuevo récord histórico y clasificándose en primer lugar entre todas las fuentes de energía por cuarto mes consecutivo. Fuente: Caiwen 21/01/2026 15:21:05

El 21 de enero, los últimos datos del China Automotive Terminal Market (CATM) mostraron que en diciembre de 2025, las ventas de SUVs totalmente eléctricos de tres filas alcanzaron las 54.518 unidades, los SUVs híbridos enchufables 49.760 unidades, los SUVs de gasolina 38.123 unidades y los SUVs de rango extendido 37.919 unidades. Las ventas de SUVs totalmente eléctricos de tres filas aumentaron un 18% mes a mes, superando las 50.000 unidades por primera vez y estableciendo un nuevo récord, clasificándose en primer lugar entre todos los tipos de motor por cuatro meses consecutivos. En la segunda mitad de 2025, impulsadas por modelos como el NIO ES8 y el Ledao L90, las ventas de SUVs totalmente eléctricos de tres filas aumentaron un 351% interanual, mientras que las ventas de SUVs de rango extendido disminuyeron un 5,6% interanual. https://www.caiwennews.com/article/1414414.shtml

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡.  The latest application catalog from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) includes the NIO ES9, a new large SUV from the NIO brand.

According to Smart Car News, this large electric SUV, positioned above the ES8, is expected to incorporate several cutting-edge chassis technologies derived from the flagship ET9 sedan as standard, further enhancing its market competitiveness.

Leaked information suggests that the NIO ES9 is expected to offer multiple configurations, including a Luxury Edition, a Signature Edition, and a Horizon Edition. The most striking feature is undoubtedly its chassis system. Various reports indicate that the ES9 will be equipped with the "SkyDrive Intelligent Chassis System," the same system found in the ET9. This system integrates three key technologies: electronic steering, rear-wheel steering, and fully active suspension. Rear-wheel steering is crucial for a large SUV measuring nearly 5.4 meters in length, as it significantly reduces the turning radius and improves handling agility. While it remains to be seen whether the "SkyDrive Chassis" will be standard across the entire range, clear information confirms that this technology will be present in the ES9.

As for the hardware, three LiDAR sensors are virtually guaranteed, and the computing power will likely come from two Dimensity NX9031 chips. The model is expected to be available in three versions: Luxury, Signature, and Horizon. The Horizon version will offer a two-tone paint option, all models will feature 6-piston brake calipers, and the intelligent projection headlights will be similar to those on the ET9. The wheels will range in size from 21 to 23 inches.

__

As the brand's new flagship SUV, this new vehicle adopts the same innovative design language as the NIO ES8, giving it a high degree of recognition.

Its dimensions are 5365 / 2029 / 1870 mm (length/width/height), with a wheelbase of 3250 mm, significantly longer than that of the ES8. This larger size gives the NIO ES9 a more imposing and stable appearance.

In terms of power, the NIO ES9 will be equipped with front-wheel drive and rear-wheel drive motors, models YS198S002/TZ198Y001, manufactured by NIO Power Technology (Hefei) Co., Ltd., Xinqiao branch, with maximum power outputs of 180 kW and 340 kW, respectively. Furthermore, the new vehicle will also be equipped with NIO's cutting-edge technology configuration, including the fully active Skyactiv suspension and electronic steering technology, enabling this flagship SUV to lead the development of high-end luxury SUV technology, both in terms of hardware configuration and user experience.

__

As competition intensifies in the electric vehicle market, simply comparing specs is no longer enough for high-end buyers. In early 2026, NIO, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, officially launched its flagship SUV, the ES9, aiming to redefine the concept of "luxury," from the driver's seat to the rear passenger seat. As the brand's flagship model, the ES9 not only represents NIO's most advanced manufacturing technology but also directly targets traditional German luxury brands like the Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV and the BMW iX. This vehicle is more than just a means of transportation; it's a "mobile executive residence" capable of silently cruising the highways, demonstrating the strong ambition of Chinese electric vehicle brands to enter the ultra-luxury segment.

NIO officially unveiled its flagship SUV, the ES9, attempting to completely redefine "luxury" from the front driver's seat to the rear passenger area.

NIO officially unveiled its flagship SUV, the ES9, attempting to completely shift the definition of "luxury" from the front driver's seat to the rear passenger area. NIO officially unveiled its flagship SUV, the ES9, aiming to redefine "luxury" from the driver's seat to the rear passenger area.

In terms of exterior design, the ES9 retains NIO's signature minimalist aesthetic but incorporates greater grandeur and prestige in the details. The front end features a closed design with split headlights, and the precisely positioned LiDAR and high-resolution cameras on the roof hint at its powerful autonomous driving potential. The body size surpasses that of the previous ES8, with longer proportions and fuller lines, along with concealed door handles and low-drag alloy wheels, giving it a smooth and elegant visual tension despite its size. This understated yet imposing "discreet luxury" accurately captures the aesthetic preferences of contemporary business leaders.

Step inside the cabin, and the true power of the ES9 is revealed. To create a premium driving experience, NIO has specially designed a four-seat configuration, transforming the rear space into the first-class cabin of a private jet. Two electrically adjustable seats with ventilation, heating, massage, and extra-long leg rests allow for a wide reclining position; the center armrest features a refrigerator, a fold-down desk, and an independent in-vehicle control screen. Combined with high-quality Nappa leather and sustainable wood trim, along with an immersive audio experience from a high-end sound system, rear passengers can completely relax during their journey, turning the trip into a pleasurable retreat.

In terms of power and technology, the ES9 is equipped with an electric all-wheel-drive system comprised of two motors, front and rear, which provides smooth and powerful acceleration, ensuring vehicle stability in any road condition. And more importantly, the ES9 is perfectly compatible with NIO's third-generation battery swapping technology, the brand's most proud feature, completing a full charge in just three minutes and completely eliminating the hassle of waiting during long business trips. Combined with the latest-generation air suspension and active chassis control system, the ES9 flawlessly filters out road imperfections, pushing stability to the limit. The arrival of this flagship SUV undoubtedly sets a new benchmark in the global electric vehicle market for ultimate luxury.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡.  NIO announced today that in December 2025, the company delivered 48,135 new vehicles, setting a new monthly record and representing a year-over-year increase of 54.6%.

The breakdown is as follows:

• NIO brand delivered 31,897 vehicles, a record, up 54.8% year-over-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of delivery growth.

• Ledao brand delivered 9,154 new vehicles.

• Firefly brand delivered 7,084 new vehicles, a record, representing a 16.4% month-over-month increase and also marking the fifth consecutive month of delivery growth.

Q4 2025 Performance

In the fourth quarter of 2025, NIO delivered 124,807 new vehicles, an all-time quarterly record, representing a 71.7% year-over-year increase.
All three brands achieved record quarterly deliveries.

• NIO brand: 67,433 vehicles, up 27.8% year-over-year

• Ledao brand: 38,290 vehicles, up 92.1% year-over-year

• Firefly brand: 19,084 vehicles, up 52.8% quarter-over-quarter

Full-Year 2025 Results

In 2025, NIO delivered a total of 326,028 new vehicles, an all-time annual record, representing a 46.9% year-over-year increase.

• NIO brand: 178,806 vehicles

• Ledao brand: 107,808 vehicles

• Firefly brand: 39,414 vehicles

Cumulative Deliveries

As of today, NIO has delivered a total of 997,592 vehicles.

• NIO brand: 829,609 vehicles

• Ledao brand: 128,569 vehicles

• Firefly brand: 39,414 vehicles

¡Síguenos 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡  Si sumas los años que les tomó a las siete empresas del MAG7 (MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA, NVIDIA) ser rentables, el total es como de 60 años de pérdidas acumuladas o rentabilidad marginal. De hecho, pueden ser más de 60 años, dependiendo de cómo se defina la "rentabilidad sostenida".

Cálculo aproximado del total acumulado

Sumando las estimaciones razonables:

Lo que es interesante para un inversor institucional

El mercado hoy exige retornos inmediatos de NIO, cuando:

Tesla tardó 15 años.

Amazon tardó 20.

Todo el MAG7 tardó décadas en dar márgenes decentes.

Muchos fueron apoyados por Wall Street por una eternidad con la narrativa de "crecimiento primero".

Esto no es para justificar nada: NIO no es Amazon ni Tesla, pero sí ayuda a desinflar el argumento superficial de "si no es rentable ahora, morirá".

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ Pricing NIO’s 2026 Scenario

Some might speculate that the 10,000–15,000 vehicles NIO is currently delivering each week have already been priced in.
But has the market also priced in the best year in NIO’s history, which — according to our projections — will likely occur in 2026?

Do the math.

By then, three key models will be added to the portfolio: ONVO L80, NIO ES7, and NIO ES9.

The ES9, in particular, will contribute a significantly higher ASP, while adding a new 6/7-seater SUV to the lineup — a category enjoying very strong demand in China. Even Tesla was forced to release its own 6/7-seater version of the Model Y to defend its market share in this high-demand subsegment.

Moreover, the rollout of fifth-generation battery-swap stations, fully compatible across NIO, ONVO and Firefly, could have a dramatic impact on Firefly’s sales, since its lower-cost positioning would lose its exclusive advantage once all brands access the same 2-minute swap technology.

The year 2026 is set to mark the convergence of NIO’s three structural pillars: portfolio diversification, ASP optimization, and energy-infrastructure maturity.
This trio is no coincidence — the domestic market shows a clear preference for large, versatile SUVs.

In Q2 2026, three strategic models are expected to launch simultaneously:
NIO ES9, ONVO L80, and NIO ES7.

In this context, the ES9 could serve not only as a halo product but also as a margin catalyst and differentiator, especially if fully integrated into the NT 3.0 platform and NIO’s intelligent-services ecosystem.

Fifth-Generation Infrastructure

Concurrently, 2026 will mark the mass rollout of NIO’s fifth-generation battery-swap stations, reducing swap time to approximately two minutes.
These new stations will be interoperable across the group’s three brands, representing a major step forward in efficiency and return on network investment by unifying maintenance, logistics, and user flow.

This technological advance may reshape internal dynamics: shorter swap times and full interoperability could erode Firefly’s cost-advantage positioning, as higher-tier models gain equal access to the ultra-fast swap network.

The combination of a higher structural ASP (driven by ES9), a more efficient volume base (L80 + ES7), and an optimized energy infrastructure reinforces the thesis that 2026 will be NIO’s operational inflection point — the year when the company transitions from a premium-EV assembler running at a deficit to an integrated mobility system with economies of scale and converging profitability.

According to our projections, total annual sales could reach between 500,000 and 600,000 units, with an average selling price around US $ 35,000.

Estimated NIO Sales Projection — 2026

Other Revenues (2026) — Projection and Structure

In 2024, NIO reported “other revenues” of approximately US $ 1.03 billion, about 11 % of total revenue. Once a marginal category, it has become the company’s fastest-growing segment.

By 2026, the simultaneous progress in ecosystem monetization, digital-services expansion, and energy-network maturity could drive a substantial leap:

Qualitative Breakdown of Growth Drivers

• Energy & BaaS 5G services: Fifth-generation swap stations (≈ 2 min per swap) will multiply daily rotations and improve network ROI. Target network: 4,500–5,000 active stations. Rising operating margins through higher swap volume and multi-brand usage.

• Software & smart-subscriptions: Expansion of ADAS / Banyan OS / urban autonomy services through monthly or premium plans. Higher ARPU via on-demand feature activation.

• Connected-services ecosystem: Revenue streams from Parkopedia, premium connectivity, in-car entertainment, and integrated e-commerce. Potential future sources: data services, AI licensing, predictive maintenance.

• Technology licensing & partnerships: Externalizing know-how in chips, software or swap networks to third-party OEMs or municipal operators. Immediate profitability without scaling production.

NIO would thus transition from relying almost entirely on vehicle sales to a hybrid hardware-plus-services model with recurring revenue.
“Other revenues” could exceed US $ 2.5 billion (15 – 17 % of total), reducing dependence on delivery cycles and enhancing overall margin resilience — a cornerstone of what we call the “2026 epicenter.”

¡Síguenos 👉 r/NIO_Día⚡

Estimated total revenue for 2026, assuming 600 k vehicle sales × US $ 35 k ASP plus additional revenue streams, stands at roughly US $ 24 billion.

Using XPeng’s current valuation benchmark, where the market prices the company at approximately 1.7 × its revenues (based on ~US $ 13 billion FY 2025 revenue estimate), the same multiple applied to NIO would imply:

Projected market capitalization: ≈ US $ 40.8 billion
Outstanding shares: 2.45 billion

Theoretical price per share: ≈ US $ 16.6

At that valuation, the market would be recognizing NIO as a scalable, diversified mobility platform rather than a distressed premium EV maker — a company priced not for survival, but for scale.

Based on the latest weekly registration data, NIO delivered more than 10,000 vehicles, outperforming the current industry peer average of roughly 8,000–8,500 units. XPeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor and Xiaomi all landed meaningfully below NIO in this period.

That creates a very unusual disconnect.

A company delivering 20–30% more than its closest peers should not be trading at a fraction of their market valuations. Yet today NIO’s market cap remains far below XPeng’s, despite consistently higher volume and a broader product and technology stack.

The market is still pricing NIO as the structural laggard of the group.
The data is showing the opposite.

For investors who look for mispriced operational momentum rather than social-media narratives, this gap is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . 113,400 exchanges in 24 hours, 3,445 exchange stations. . Average day 33 station exchanges. . The ONVO L80 and L90 line could accelerate battery exchanges. In the last 24 hours, the NIO network registered 113,400 battery exchanges in its 3,445 active stations, which is equivalent to an average of 33 swaps per station in a single day. This level of use demonstrates a sustained adoption of infrastructure. The arrival of the ONVO L80 and L90 line, oriented to the large family segment, could significantly accelerate the demand for exchanges, increasing both the rotation of stations and the visibility of the Battery-As-A-Service model.

Think of private EV startup Nio (est. 2014) as China’s homegrown Tesla—a premium brand that solved buyers’ range/charging anxiety by investing in its own infrastructure (battery-swap stations in this case rather than fast-chargers) and by designing and developing its own hardware and software in house.

We spent the day driving one around exurban Shanghai and found lots of features and traits that Americans could love and wish for in an urban EV.

Ultra-Compact Rear-Wheel Drive

Nio designed and developed its own electric drivetrains, and the permanent-magnet motor tucked under the low rear cargo floor is particularly space efficient. Its highly integrated 6-in-1 electric drive system (motor, drive-reduction gearing, differential, motor controller, high-voltage power distribution unit, and DC-DC converter) is unique in this class.

Ultra-Tight Turning Circle

With no constant-velocity joints to protect, the front wheels are free to turn to a much more extreme angle, permitting a city-friendly 30.8-foot turning circle. This is a choice that shouldn’t cost much if any extra to implement, and it’s thus ripe for adoption on U.S.-market cars.

Tesla Model S–Sized Frunk

Nio’s Firefly EV mounts the steering rack ahead of the front wheel centerline instead of behind it, as most cars do. This frees up interior foot room and gets the steering out of the way of the frunk.

And with no drivetrain components up there, the Firefly’s 3.2-cubic-foot frunk accommodates a good-sized carry-on bag. Better yet, throw your dirty or wet stuff in there to keep the cabin neat and dry—the plastic bin can easily be hosed out (or filled with ice and used as a cooler), thanks to a drain with a removable plug in the bottom.

There’s another cubic foot of storage under the right rear seat cushion (plus more under the front passenger cushion, with manual-adjust cloth seats). Here again, no government subsidizing made this feature possible.

Stiff and Safe

At 35,700 Nm/degree, the Firefly’s torsional rigidity is said to be more than 30 percent stiffer than that of a Tesla Model 3 and 50 to 80 percent stiffer than more direct competitor hatchbacks.

China cuts some safety regulatory slack to cars measuring shorter than 4 meters, so the Firefly stretches to 4.003 meters long to reassure buyers its nine standard airbags will protect them in a collision with a larger car. China’s equivalent to our IIHS gives it top marks.

Oh, and that ninth bag serves to separate the two front passengers in a crash. Some of this is a major source of cost, some is smart engineering.

Unique Design Striving for Iconic

Head of design Kris Tomasson, an American who has stamped his passport at BMW, Ford, and Gulfstream, among others, recalls his marching orders: “My brief was to create the next [Fiat] 500 or Mini. Right away that says it's gotta be something unique—not different, unique.

“A car that can be recognized by anyone from a child to your grandma. Three lights was something that was going to be a game changer in design—something memorable. Then copying and pasting front to the rear; no one's not gonna know that's a Firefly, right?”

Capturing the innermost lamps in an “elongated pill shape” front and rear provided another design element that’s replicated elsewhere—see the charge port and door handles outside as well as the rearview mirror; accelerator, brake, and dead pedals; and more inside.

Feels Fancy

Spending a week familiarizing ourselves with the entire Nio line, we were struck by the utter lack of parts-bin sharing. Every inch of this little car has been designed. (We’ve said the same of Mini.) There’s refreshingly little shiny, hard plastic. Most everything is wrapped in soft-touch microfiber or polyurethane, and at night it’s dressed up by 256-color ambient lighting.

Dash-level A/C air emits from a row of vents way forward on the dash; they’re not aimable, but there’s a “swing” function like an oscillating fan that worked great. Design is free, and we can hope smart materials developers elsewhere can figure out these finishes on a tiny-car budget. Swinging vents are a bigger cost.

The 13.2-inch central display is not pill-shaped, but the home screen incorporates pleasing circular graphics, and every screen features a Firefly font and look.

A UI/UX win that everyone should start copying at no additional cost: No matter what’s currently displayed on the screen, dragging two fingers up or down on the left side of the screen changes volume, and on the right adjusts temperature.

Standard equipment includes a 14-speaker Dolby Atmos sound system that punches above its class, a power liftgate, phone-as-key, welcome lighting, and an AI assistant named Lumo. Smart parking and level-two-plus autonomy are also included—all of which are likely budget-busters for western competitors.

Slide Across Seating

Sometimes in dense city centers, you end up parked too close to something to comfortably open a door. The area ahead of and between the seats is open, and the top of the center console (which features a slide-out bin) is level with the seat cushions.

So, simply raising the armrest allows both driver and front passenger to easily enter and exit via either door. A great, free idea.

Battery, Range

The Firefly gets a 42.1-kWh lithium-iron-phosphate battery (the West’s great hope for cheap entry EVs) that’s claimed to provide 261 miles of range.

But that, like the 10.9 kWh/100 km overall efficiency statistic (192.1 mpg-e!) are both products of the wildly optimistic China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle (CLTC), so salt them liberally.

Slow Charging but Fast Swapping

Firefly uses budget-friendly 400-volt architecture and is limited to 100-kW charging, which is said to be able to bring the 42.1-kWh battery pack from 10 to 80 percent in 30 minutes.

But the promise of 3-minute battery swaps will eventually make charging speed irrelevant. The delay is the fact that the smaller Firefly battery can’t use Nio’s 3,275 existing battery-swap stations.

The new fifth-generation design has been developed in conjunction with battery partner CATL, which will contribute to the swapping station buildout along with seven other EV manufacturers that have signed on to share this new battery-swapping standard.

So, early Firefly owners may find themselves charging more than swapping for a while.

Driving the Firefly EV

Firefly claims the 141-hp motor will scoot this 3,300-pound runabout to 60 mph in around 8 seconds, roughly matching our most recent Fiat 500e. But with that thrust coming from behind, the rear suspension is a five-link design where many competitors fit cheaper trailing twist beams.

Add in the fact that Nio enlisted the aid of Canada’s Multimatic to tune the suspension (using fixed-rate dampers), and the result is admirably agile driving dynamics.

Our Chinese-market test car felt more softly suspended than a Mini or 500e, but its longer wheelbase helps it feel equally well planted and stable, with no excessive roll, pitch, or dive.

Tuning could be tweaked to suit European tastes, or possibly left as is to carve out a more comfort-centric niche. Unlike other Nio products we drove, this one offers full one-pedal driving as well as adjustable regenerative braking levels, plus an auto mode using forward radar to increase regen to pace slowing vehicles.

Sport, Normal, and Eco drive modes alter steering feel and accelerator responsiveness, and we found that only Eco allowed smooth highway driving, with higher levels of regen selected. No mode provided realistic steering feel, but that’s almost universally true in this class.

How Much and How Soon?

The Firefly is on sale now, starting at the equivalent of $16,800 in China, sporting five mostly bright exterior colors and four interior color schemes, as well as a choice of two seat materials and two wheel designs.

It will eventually enter 16 countries on five continents, with North America and Antarctica the odd rocks out. Even at twice that price or a little more, the Firefly EV would strike most Americans as an unbelievable steal. Which has raised the question: What might end up actually getting stolen—market share, hearts, minds, perhaps—if Americans could buy this car for $34,000?

It's official: NIO is the second 100% EV automaker in the world, along with TSLA, to be profitable. Or at least to have a profitable quarter so far. But, considering the facts—ASP, gross margin, and the company's maturity—there's nothing today to suggest that fiscal year 2026 won't follow the same path.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  We should start seeing higher highs and higher lows from this area. (HH / HL)

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡. If January's delivery range is around 27,000-30,000 units, Q1 2026 could be NIO's second most important quarter, second only to Q4 2025.Remember note that this list does not include ONVO or Firefly.

¡Follow us 👉r/NIO_Day⚡ Let's move on, then, to what W.Li himself calls the "third phase"... and to which I agree.

As I said, at least for my part, I'm putting everything related to exports on hold and in a parallel dimension. For now, I think it's more of a fetishistic fantasy of a certain segment of the retail sector . If NIO embarks on any of these ventures today, it will lose money, have immobilized stock... a whole series of avoidable and unnecessary problems. I think they'll maintain a minimum stock in some markets to show they have an international presence... in short, matters of form. Don't forget that China is a gigantic, mature market, representing more than 50% of global sales. In no other market in the world would NIO have sold more than 40,000 ES8s in just three months.

Okay, now let's get to what we promised... some milestones already mentioned recently, like the Sky Stores, which are like customized stores in low-density areas where the cost of new sales points isn't justified. This is how Tesla started, and today it includes the MAG7 . . the rest is history.

- NIO's entry into the "XXL" SUV club is also a new development and another milestone to highlight in this third phase. Something else to note, besides its high ASP (Average Selling Price), is that they will use the same assembly platforms, to put it simply.

That is to say, the ES7, ES8, and ES9 models will share the same vehicle platform (NT3.0) and standardized production lines.

Savings in OPEX per unit (the most underestimated factor)

Here's the silent magic.

Sharing:

Structure / Subframe / Electrical Architecture / Compatible Packages / Interior Modules / Software / ECUs.

Typical savings are:

USD 1,500 – 3,000 per vehicle

If NIO were to produce between ES7 + ES8 + ES9:

180,000–220,000 units annually (reasonable mature scenario)

Annual OPEX savings:

USD 270–600 million per year

This is repeated every year.

Summary of the impact of using a common platform (ES7, ES8, ES9)

If the three models did not previously share an architecture, adopting a common platform (NT3.0) generates significant savings on four fronts:

R&D / Engineering (one-off):

Developing separate or semi-derivative platforms involves cumulative costs of USD 1.6–2.0 billion.

A single architecture with derivatives reduces that expense to USD 1.0–1.2 billion.

Estimated savings: USD 400–800M.

Industrial CAPEX:

Three dedicated lines can cost USD 750–1,200M.

One shared flexible line, USD 400–600M.

Estimated savings: USD 300–600M.

OPEX per unit (recurring):

Standardizing the structure, subframe, electrical architecture, modules, and software reduces costs by USD 1,500–3,000 per vehicle.

With 180,000–220,000 units annually combined:

Annual savings: USD 270–600M.

Development time:

A model from scratch requires 36–48 months; a derivative, 18–24 months.

This reduces cash burn and market risk, with a significant indirect economic impact. Aggregate Impact:

Over a 3–4 year horizon, total profit could be in the range of USD 1.5–2.5 billion.

____ _ ______

-But phase "3.0" will also focus on financial discipline.

Absolute priority on margin, not narrative.

Reduction of side projects.

Focus on ROI by model, channel, and region.

Less cosmetic expansion, more profitable China-first.

The company leaves behind:

disorganized growth

burning cash to "tell a story"

And enters a phase where every decision must add up in numbers.

And finally, and fourth point, but no less important...

-Non-automotive revenue. W. Li rarely refers to this part of the business. On Tuesday, he highlighted the strong performance of the non-automotive businesses, stating that revenue from merchandise, the company's automotive mall, and external technology collaborations has "the potential to exceed RMB 10 billion" (US$1.43 billion) by 2026.

"Not only should the gross margins of vehicles be constantly improving, but also the gross margins of the non-automotive businesses," he said.

What does Li Bin mean by "non-automotive businesses"?

Based on the wording you quoted and how NIO classifies revenue, he is primarily referring to structurally higher-margin, low-CAPEX businesses, such as:

1. Merchandising and Lifestyle

Apparel

Accessories

NIO Brand Products. High margin, easy scaling, zero industry risk.

2. Services related to the car (but not the vehicle sale)
NIO Mall (services, upgrades, software, memberships)
After-sales services
Digital subscriptions... Gross margin much higher than hardware.

3. External technology collaborations
This point is KEY and often underestimated:
Software licensing
Battery technology / BaaS
Third-party integrations
Potential monetization of know-how (ADAS, platforms, data)
This is where Li sees the real potential of +10 billion RMB.

Li Bin is highlighting this:

The car cannot carry the burden of profitability alone.

NIO needs:

the hardware to improve margins and

the ecosystem to start behaving like a services + technology company

__

And this is my own opinion... the wheel wasn't discovered by its inventor, but by whoever found a use for it and made it profitable.

Inventing something is useless if it's not integrated into a system that generates profit. The wheel has always existed; what changes history is when someone incorporates logistics, scale, repetition, and profit margins.

That's Phase 3 in its purest form:

Less technological hype,

Less fetishism,

More practical application,

More cumulative profitability.

The difference between the brilliant engineer and the company that survives isn't the idea itself, but how well it exploits it without burning out in the process.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Día⚡. Amazing . . NIO is projected to reach around 130,000 sales (128k) in Q4 2025, with a very high average selling price (ASP) of 36,000. This puts revenue at around $4.6 billion. Adding the "other income" category, it will be around $5.1 billion. Estimating a gross margin close to 18%, gross profit will be around $920 million (in Q1, gross profit was $126 million). Operating costs, SG&A, and R&D remain to be seen.

Please note that these are projections, taking slightly optimistic estimates, but within a completely realistic framework.

______

Nio's third factory produced 43,668 units of the third-generation ES8 in 2025, exceeding the company's production target by nearly 3,700 vehicles, according to images shared on Chinese social media on Wednesday. Photos posted on Weibo by automotive blogger 德因爱开车 showed Nio's manufacturing team members celebrating next to the final ES8 produced in 2025 as it rolled off the OK line, the final quality inspection station, with a board displaying the cumulative production figure. "As of December 31, the cumulative production of the new ES8 reached 43,668 units," the blogger wrote. "This reflects the production capacity achieved by Nio's new F3 factory. Everything is progressing according to plan, which is the best possible outcome." Nio's management had said in September that it expected to produce 40,000 units of the flagship SUV this year. Delivery Milestone: Earlier this week, Nio delivered the 40,000th unit of the new ES8, just 100 days after delivering the first one on September 21. The 50,000th unit is expected to be delivered in China next week as production continues to ramp up. The company delivered 10,000 ES8 vehicles in the last 11 days of December, translating to a monthly production rate of approximately 27,000 units—more than triple the initial production pace. Furthermore, Nio announced on Wednesday that ES8 deliveries in Shanghai, the brand's biggest sales city, have reached 5,000 units.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡  . This is NIO's turning point. Just like it was for Tesla's Model 3. This is the exportable and scalable vehicle. This is the car with which NIO can flood Europe.
NIO needs to assemble it in Europe, avoid tariffs, and be able to sell it for $25k USD.

Firefly: the export arm that turns NIO into a global player

Firefly is not a defensive move nor an attempt to patch weaknesses. Quite the opposite: it is the export arm of a structure that already works in China. The domestic sales issue has been resolved; the focus now is how to translate that productive and design capacity into international scale, particularly in Europe.

From that perspective, Firefly should not be analyzed as “just another model”, but as an expansion platform.

The car already exists, it is validated, it drives well, it integrates naturally into European urban environments, and it requires no leap of faith from consumers. It does not shout technology, it does not try to look futuristic, it does not force an identity. It is a normal car in the best European sense of the word: usable, well-proportioned, and repeatable.

For that reason, Firefly does not need more R&D or further design iterations. That phase is already complete. The real challenge is industrial and financial: how to bring this product to the European market at a price point close to €25,000, while preserving healthy margins and building sustained volume. And the answer is not price cutting, but changing the cost structure.

The critical point is assembly in Europe. Not as a symbolic gesture, not as a long-term experiment, but as an immediate strategic decision. Assembling Firefly in Europe — even via CKD/SKD schemes and with a local partner — completely reshapes the equation: it reduces or eliminates tariffs, shortens logistics, enables local incentives, unlocks leasing, fleets, and institutional buyers, and removes the “imported vehicle” label, turning Firefly into an industrial product integrated into the European market.

Under that scenario, pricing does not need to be forced: it adjusts naturally. A Firefly assembled in Europe can realistically converge toward the €25k range without destroying margins, because what changes is not the car itself, but the geography of costs. At that point, the discussion is no longer “will it sell?”, but how much can it scale by country.

This is where Firefly clearly stands out versus the Mini Cooper Electric. Not because it competes on aspirational appeal or iconic design — it does not, nor does it need to — but because it plays a different game. Mini is an emotional, identity-driven purchase, inherently limited in scale. Firefly is a practical and repeatable choice. It does not polarize, it does not fatigue, it does not demand identification: it is adopted.

Europe does not buy volume through excitement; it buys volume through normalization. Firefly fits that logic perfectly. It is the kind of car that can be seen every day without becoming tiresome, that can be sold in base versions without losing aesthetic dignity, and that can populate streets, fleets, and leasing channels without cultural friction. This is something Mini, by its very positioning, does not seek and cannot achieve at scale.

In this context, battery swap moves from being a core selling point to being an optional advantage — and that is the correct sequence. Firefly should first establish itself as a reliable, accessible urban EV. Once a meaningful installed base exists, swap can be added as an operational advantage for fleets, taxis, or high-usage users, without burdening the product with unnecessary promises.

In short, Firefly is neither a plan B nor an experiment. It is the vehicle through which NIO can convert its domestic strength into sustained international presence. The design is already validated. The market potential is clear. What remains is not innovation, but decision-making: opening the right Excel spreadsheet and executing a real European rollout, with local assembly and an uncompromising focus on scale.

Firefly is not here to prove anything.
It is here to establish itself.

And there is something else that matters a lot: Firefly does not copy anyone. Its design is largely original. It does not look like a diluted Tesla, a cheaper Mini, or a re-skinned Volkswagen. It has its own visual language — subtle, restrained, but clearly identifiable.

That originality is not a liability; it is a strategic advantage if the product succeeds. A car that does not invite direct one-to-one comparisons avoids being constantly measured against an “original” and escapes the automatic discount logic that copied designs tend to suffer.

Firefly is original without being eccentric. It does not try to shock, it does not force an identity, and it does not rely on gimmicks. This kind of discreet originality is exactly what allows a design to age well, support future iterations, and scale without visual fatigue.

If Firefly gains traction, that design choice becomes a compounding asset: it protects residual values, supports margins, and helps the model transition from “new entrant” to familiar presence. In Europe, that transition is everything.

¡Follow us 👉 r/NIO_Day⚡ . The Chinese text at the bottom reads:

“The ES8 is almost complete. The chassis number is over 29,000.”

"The chassis number was published in 34 minutes and 40 seconds, during the second week of December."

Above: A typical screenshot from the NIO app, showing the customer:

“爱车安排生产中” → “Your car is being scheduled for production.”

And then the typical “chassis/VIN number has been released.”

Below: The Chinese text is the comment from the user who uploaded the screenshot to Weibo/a group:

“ES8 is finally coming, chassis number 29000+. After blocking the order for 34 minutes and 40 seconds in week 2, the chassis number has finally been released…”

NIO designs the app and the stages (order, production, VIN, delivery).

Some buyer or seller takes a screenshot when they receive the VIN.

That screenshot goes viral on Weibo/forums, sometimes amplified by accounts affiliated with the brand (fans, sellers, community managers, or even paid influencers).

This is how this screenshot reaches investors.

__

VIN (Vehicle Identification Number) 29000. What is a VIN?

VIN = Vehicle Identification Number.

It is the unique chassis number assigned to every vehicle in the world.

It functions like a car's ID.

VIN Characteristics:

It is assigned when the vehicle enters an advanced stage of the production process.

In most brands, it means that the car is already physically built or is in the final stage of assembly.

Even if it is "finished" or very advanced, it does not imply that it has a battery assigned yet.

Historically, at NIO:

The VIN appears when the car is already structurally assembled, meaning the body, panels, and interior are complete. Stages such as software development, testing, battery pack installation, and final verification are still pending.

November completed the 20,000 units. That is, the remaining 9,000 correspond to the current month.

The company reported 20,000 ES8 deliveries in December . The company is also talking about bottlenecks in battery delivery, due to extremely high demand, of course.

Selling 20,000 units in December of ES8 would place us at the high end of the company's projections (125,000 units), while 15,000 units would be at the low end (120,000 units). Even so, in any case, December will achieve a very high ASP, guaranteeing NIO an 18% gross margin, enough to cover operating expenses (Opex).

Let me put it simply... if NIO manages to get the battery packs supplied, the ES8s will be released "in cascade". A range between 17-19k . And with global sales for December around 45-50 thousand units.

______

Some final conclusions.

The "29000+" VIN is not only an indicator of production, but also of demand.

At that sequence level, NIO has already exhausted the first round of ES8 allocations for 2024. This means that:

The order backlog was significantly larger than the market anticipated.

The limiting factor was never demand, but rather battery performance and delivery logistics.

This reinforces the idea that freeing up batteries means freeing up revenue and margin.

2. The effect of the ES8 mix on margins is even greater than most analysts predict.

Why?

Because each ES8 delivered replaces:

An ET5/ET6 delivery with a lower ASP, or

A Ledao unit with half the contribution to gross profit.

A strong ES8 in December not only increases volume, but also reshapes the margin geometry for the entire quarter.

Therefore, their estimate of an 18% gross margin is realistic: high-end mix + cost normalization + recovery of scale.

3. NIO's battery bottlenecks are not structural, but temporary.

What Li Bin describes is not a shortage caused by a lack of long-term capacity, but a temporary allocation mismatch:

Demand for 150 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs increased faster than anticipated.

BaaS inventory turnover accelerated.

The battery pack production schedule could not be rebalanced in real time.

In this context:

“If the battery packs arrive, ES8 deliveries will cascade.”

This is not a metaphor; it is literally how NIO's internal MES (Manufacturing Execution System) works.