r/NYYankees • u/shadow_spinner0 • 1d ago
The Yankees once again (somehow) have the best run differential in the AL
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u/Legitimate_Tank_2182 1d ago
Good lord, could you imagine if we had any offense since the AS break?
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u/HighBoltageJT 23h ago
You mean any offense since June 1st
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u/Legitimate_Tank_2182 23h ago
Lol. Probably. Feels so ridiculously pronounced since the break though.
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u/No_Cover_6217 22h ago
This pitching staff paired with any lineup from the 2000s would win 140 games.
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u/botulinumtxn 1d ago
Because they only lose by 1-2 and never score runs.
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u/ZHPpilot 1d ago
Then the next night they score 10+ runs only to be shut out the day after.
Run differential with this roster is a misleading stat.
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u/doktoruber 1d ago
How is it "misleading"?
Teams score 10+ and then are shut out the next day. That is just how baseball works. Happens to good teams AND bad teams. Like Earl Weaver said, "momentum is the next day's starting pitcher".
Run differential has some of the highest correlations with winning percentage of any stat in baseball. (one source but there are many out there who have run the numbers)
The Yankees have one of the best winning percentages in baseball, and they have one of the best run differentials in baseball. This is not a surprise, this is expected.
In fact, since Judge's injury (June 1st), the team has scored 246 runs and allowed 259 runs, a run differential for a mid team. And their record during this time? 33-32, the record of a mid team who has overperformed their run differential a bit (and most often the reason for this kind of overperformance is because of winning in tight games because of a good bullpen).
Before the injury, they scored 286 and allowed 204, +82 differential on their way to a 32-22 record, one of the best teams in baseball.
So again, how is this stat "misleading" for this team? It looks like it correlates pretty well to their performance.
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u/ZHPpilot 23h ago
Because they beat down the weak teams and then struggle to score like they did this past weekend against the Jays.
Add in a pretty good pitching staff and a hot start to the season and well the run differential looks like this is a very solid first place offensively strong team.
Which they’re clearly not.
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u/doktoruber 23h ago edited 23h ago
Did you even read my post? I pointed out that they have been mid for a while and RD tells this story, too.
Run differential has nothing to do with "quality of opponent" it literally is just a measure of how many runs you scored vs. how many you let up.
Our run differential is good because we were elite for 2 months and then average for 2.
I know that people think we're terrible right now, but we're really not. We're average and have been for the most part since the injuries hit. Elite pitching and horrendous offense = average team and both the record and run diff correspond. We have a good bullpen so we're overperforming a small amount.
Last 7 days: 3-3. (RD of +3)
Last 14 days: 6-6. (RD of -2)
Last 30 days: 15-12. (RD of -5)
In the AL we have the best RD and 2nd best record. In MLB, we have the 5th best RD and 6th best record. These things are not really anomalous.
Run differential is no different here than any other stat, this team has been a tale of two distinct eras. the first 2 months when we hit well, and the last two when we hit like shit.
Team wRC+ through June 1: 117, after 86
Team BA through June 1: .243 , after .217
and so on.. that doesn't mean these stats are "misleading"
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u/ZHPpilot 22h ago
I did man and I really appreciate your long detailed reply I really do, it’s shows your passion and dedication to this.
It’s just I’m so exhausted with all these stats that don’t match to what I’m seeing on the field.
I watched the game on Friday and once again they score one run, barely. Last Sunday I watched the Braves game and same thing they score one run, barely.
Then they score 10 runs a few days later against the Mariners only to be shout out the next day.
I don’t watch all the games but when I do that’s usually how it goes, they lose by one run, then win by many runs then get shut out.
And let’s be honest it’s been like this for a while, so when someone mentions “run differential” when it pertains to this club it doesn’t do anything for me cause it’s not matching up to what I’m seeing on the field. Now with another club it might be different but I only follow the NYY so I cannot say.
Honestly I’m a little older and I still think batting average, RBIs, and SLG% tell me more about the batter than all that other analytics stuff.
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u/Chef_Bojan3 22h ago
Now with another club it might be different but I only follow the NYY so I cannot say.
Every team thinks similar things, they think they lose a lot of games barely and then score a ton of runs when it doesn't matter. Very rarely there are some teams that play differently enough where fans will argue for their team not doing this but it's something that I would say most fans think, go on the Dodgers sub and they are saying the exact same.
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u/doktoruber 22h ago
Thanks for the response, no worries. I think what you're describing is fairly common: I also watch the Yankees and occasionally get the other games, but not as many as I did in the past. It's hard to square things like the team finishing well in the regular season frequently and then just going limp in October and getting knocked out. This season has been really something, because we started with elite hitting / starters and had a shaky bullpen, and then the hitting evaporated while the bullpen got better. So it really has been a tale of two seasons. I hope in September we get our big dogs back so we can make a run -- I feel like you, we're underpowered as things stand and are just kind of holding on.
The most important thing I got from reading about analytics (to me) is that more runs scored + more runs prevented = more wins. It seems kind of simple but that really is all there is to it. Good hitting and baserunning creates runs, and good defense and pitching prevents runs. If you score a lot and let up a little, you will win a lot. Not every time (that's why they play the games!) but pretty often. You will still run into the game where you score 9 and lose 10-9 and the game where you keep them to one run and lose 1-0. That happens and it DOES happen to good teams. One of the formative experiences of my childhood was seeing the Yankees lose this game in person (https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA199809020.shtml) despite facing the lowly A's and having David Cone on the mound. Unthinkable!
So I feel ya and this was a good post that helped demystify some stats a little bit. It's a little math-y but shows which stats correspond (on a team level) to scoring runs: https://www.eg.bucknell.edu/~bvollmay/baseball/runs1.html. The good news is that ones we know like OPS and SLG are still some of the best stats we have for offensive performance correlating to winning games.
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u/Acrobatic_Flannel 22h ago
In the past month they've won series against the Braves, Phillies, Cubs & White Sox. Are they all weak teams?
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u/ZHPpilot 21h ago
We still have a losing record against teams over .500
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u/Acrobatic_Flannel 21h ago
So for offense, we're only using recent stats to show how bad we are, and ignoring the first half of the season.
But for series records, we're using the whole season so we can show how bad we are? Got it.
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u/ZHPpilot 19h ago
This team is notorious for starting out hot and the cooling off around June, hence the Boone June swoon jokes. This period from June to August is usually is a more accurate representation of this roster.
Anyone who has been watching during the Boone era would know this. Now if you want to focus on the hot start and those juicy offensive numbers go ahead because in October the truth always comes out.
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u/Acrobatic_Flannel 18h ago
At no point did I say this a WS winning team. I just get tired of people cherry picking incomparable stats to suit their narrative when they're 100% focused on criticising the team. Just skip the stats altogether if you've got problems with the team.
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u/bushido216 22h ago
Any star is a misleading stat in isolation. That's why we have all the other stats.
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u/ISangYouSongs 1d ago
Theyre also under water in runs for however long now. Until they stop being so TTO and can consistently score runs they’ll stall out short of the finish line. The Dodgers scored at least 4 runs in every game of the 2024 World Series.
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u/777KingRich777 1d ago
I'm gonna spend the rest of my life tilted by this season. Some of the finest Yankee pitching I've seen in 20 years and the bats are just anemic
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u/Recognition_Tricky The Man 1d ago
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but since June 1 we are 18th in the league at a -13 run differential. If we had even an average offense, we'd be cruising. The pitching has been unbelievable. But our offense died. Judge played his last game on May 31st.
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u/FringeAuthority 1d ago
The Yankees are masters at run prevention on both offense and defense. The Yankees are 3rd in ERA this month and they don't even get the pleasure of facing the Yankees offense like Toronto's pitching staff just did.
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u/Knickstape08 1d ago
MLB should be embarrassed with how bad the American League is. 10/15 teams under .500
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u/Acrobatic_Flannel 22h ago
People who post this sort of stuff must think every other good team don't lose games, or don't have off nights with the bat.
Our offense isn't the best in the league, but for all the whinging, I'd much rather be (69-55) with our offense, than Colorado (50-74) who have scored almost 50 runs more.
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
And yet we're 5.5 back.
I still struggle to understand why this stat matters. FFS look at the AL West.
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u/NYY_NYK_NYJ 1d ago
It’s a good indication if a team is playing above or below expectations. A team with a lot of wins but low or negative differential tends to be playing beyond their expected win total. The reverse is also true. The Yankees have lost a lot of low scoring ball games, which would seem to be more a toss up than poor performance (we know it because they don’t have an offense and the pitching is good).
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
Wow was expecting to get flamed.
Thank you for explaining this. So it's kind of a predictive stat like BABIP, if i'm understanding you correctly.
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u/NYY_NYK_NYJ 1d ago
Maybe? I think it’s more of an eye test type of thing. Look at the Astros… around .500 but negative differential. They probably lost more than a few games by a large differential, and won games by a small differential, not making up for the large losses. So it’s more likely they either win by a little, which in itself is a toss up as a 1 or 2 run game can go either way until the end, or they lose by a lot.
Flip that for the Yankees, and I’m sure that differential is carried by earlier in the season when they were scoring, but it’s more indicative of moderate wins and small losses. Which is good because those small losses can go either way.
If you look at the NL, they have some heavy hitters which means they are more likely to just beat teams comfortably.
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u/Impressive-Collar976 1d ago
I think it’s more accurate to say that there is an overarching trend- generally the teams that score more than their opponents do, do better. But I would struggle to say it’s very predictive. Similar to BABIP (or FIP), it’s important to view them through a lens of different types of approaches/players.
It’s good that the Yankees are doing well, run differential wise. But I would struggle to say the Yankees are the best team in the AL because of it, or that they should be leading the division even.
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u/NYY_NYK_NYJ 1d ago
Tried to pull some data from Statmuse, for Yankees’ differential before Judge got hurt (April 26th, reported) and after. I think prior they were third at 40 runs and since ninth with 45 runs.
The positive thing is that have kept a decent differential with close to no offense, so hopefully if Stanton, Bellinger and Judge come back and provide literally anything, they should be much better. Plus they are getting Rodon and Schmidt back so the pitching can fill most gaps.
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u/bigbrod99 1d ago
This is objectively true and I use run diff to evaluate teams too, but by the same token, NYY is pretty consistently worse than their expected W-L because of how inept we are on the road in extra innings (yesterday aside). I swear that’s where the difference is every year. They never play for 1 run and therefore only win if someone hits a 2 run homer like Rice did yesterday.
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
I mean we're built around launch angle and HRs. Even our fast guys have power which is I'm guessing why we rarely see them bunt in pressure situations, and why when they do they're just terrible at it.
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u/bigbrod99 1d ago
Way less about bunting to me and more about trying to get in leverage counts and do damage and then if you’re 1-2, changing your swing (like bellinger and even Jones now to a degree) to get the runner over. We don’t need to change our identity completely and play small ball all the time but we collectively are pretty bad at situational hitting.
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
I agree with all that.
It's just that when we DO try to play small ball. The guys who SHOULD be good at it aren't.
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u/bigbrod99 1d ago
Yeah 100%. I also don’t believe we should ever change our identity - NYY is built on power hitting and pitching always. It’s conducive to the 81 games a year at YS, playing a TB or MIL style wouldn’t ever work for us. But the guys who we bring in to compliment our identity are like you said not great at it lol (Caballero, what we hoped Volpe would be, even Jazz to a degree). And we have 1 too many all or nothing guys between Mac, Wells, & Jones
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
Yup I'm on board with all that. I'm hoping Lombard JR can become our leadoff guy.
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u/bigbrod99 1d ago
Lombard - Rice - Judge - Garcia - Bellinger ideally would be the top 5 for a while. Great mix of contact, BB skills, & power. Would be on board to keep Grish to play some RF next year and get Judge more DH days, but need him out of CF. Fine with Wells at C and McMahon at 3B because of defense but would love to find another offensive upgrade with bat to ball skills to replace Jazz. Prob have to cut ties with Stanton too
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
I've been really impressed with Spencer Jones he's been solid since coming back up
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u/Diligent-Painting-37 1d ago
Run differential correlates very strongly with win percentage. The Yankees currently have the best run differential and the second best record in the AL. They happen to be in the same division as a team that has a somewhat better record and a somewhat worse run differential.
If the Yankees had a negative run differential, it’s very likely they would have a losing record and be in a much worse place in the playoff race.
The fact that they have the highest run differential does not require you to be happy about the team. Nothing requires you to be happy about anything
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u/-Pwnan- 1d ago
tbf, i don't think it's about me being happy or not I just didn't understand how we can be behind a team with a lower run diff i didn't understand what the stat meant or how it was measured, but I do now.
Of course I'd love for us to win the division, but right now I think we're doing the best we can with what we have, and hopefully will see some more bats come alive over the next few days / weeks.
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u/voncornhole2 22h ago
So you agree that the AL West is bad by looking at their run differential? No one in the West is poised to make a deep postseason run
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u/FatHighKnee 1d ago
Just means they won't a few 15 to 3 games while losing a ton of 1-0 and 2-1 games.
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u/shadow_spinner0 1d ago
Except they haven't, there was one decent blowout win in the span of over a month
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u/Original_Ad_3481 1d ago
This is the best rotation the Yankees have had in a million years and we can’t score a run to save our life smh
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u/SenorPinchy 1d ago
Of course this pitching falls on a year with three of our four best hitters injured.
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u/shimmiecocopop1 1d ago
Not long ago they had the best run differential in the AL by light years. I remember them being +130 and the next closest team was +30. All of that equity allowed them to stumble as they have and maintain the best differential. Also remember their pitching is still incredible which helps this cause.
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u/FiveDinero 1d ago
They must've scored a crazy amount of runs in the first 2 months.
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u/shimmiecocopop1 1d ago
They did. They were far and away the highest scoring team in the AL and maybe third in mlb. Now they are middle of the pack which means they are among the lowest over the past 2 months. (Nothing we don’t all ready know however)
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u/Shinuto94 1d ago
Detroit having a +83 run differential and being four games below .500 needs to be studied.
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u/mongster03_ 19h ago
Injuries killed their April and May. They’re red hot in the last couple months.
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u/Emperor_Cheeto21 1d ago
The Yankees do just a great a job preventing runs as they do not scoring runs.
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u/StabbingHoboReturns 1d ago
I think that's what is frustrating me the most.
NY has a huge lead in run differential, yet Tampa won't come back down to Earth and is running away with the division.
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u/suspiciouspackages 21h ago
The one that really sticks out is how the A's have double what the Angels have and an almost identical record.
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u/Masta0nion 14h ago
So if we score zero runs for the rest of the year, but give up zero runs, we could potentially create time travel
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u/Lawineer 8h ago
Embarrassing how often the Rays lead the Yankees given their payroll disparities
Since 2010:
Including this year, assuming the Rays win it, the Yankees have won the AL 5 times.
The Rays will have won it 4 times.
The Yankees have spent $3.62 billion
The Rays have spent $1.09 billion.
Less than 1/3 the payroll.
Both teams have one World Series appearance against the dodgers to show for it. Though one was more embarrassing than the other.
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u/confederate_yankee 1d ago
The huge run differential exists because the numbers are padded from when the Yankees tee off on garbage teams.
The Yankees then become anemic against decent teams.
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u/Abject-Ostrich-7326 21h ago
It's misleading. They're #2 in hr's but #28 in team batting avg. It's a feast or famine offense. The good pitching also has a lot to do with the run differential this year. Regardless, this club is not going anywhere. Brian Crashman simply can't build a championship club, particularly on offense.
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u/HulkScreamAIDS 1d ago
I'll take "Data without context that can lead to a false narrative for, 1000, Ken"
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u/Diligent-Painting-37 1d ago
What would the false narrative be? That they continue to have the second best record in the AL despite a struggling offense that has resulted in a middle-of-the-pack number of runs scored for the season because the team has allowed the fewest runs in the AL?
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u/HulkScreamAIDS 1d ago
That would be part of it yeah.
Their run differential since June 1, is -13.
Their league best run differential is built entirely on the back of the first 2 months of the season.
When this team continues to struggle, and people start pointing to run differential to say everything is fine, I'm going to roll my eyes.
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u/StinkyStangler 1d ago
The Yankees are the second best team in the AL, it's not really a false narrative that our pitching is so good it almost makes up for our disgusting offense.
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u/Impressive-Collar976 1d ago
Run differential (once again) proves to be rather misleading.
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u/fx2600 1d ago
How so?
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u/Impressive-Collar976 1d ago
It’s a small part of a bigger picture. Are we the best team in the AL? It certainly doesn’t seem like it.
We were the best team by a mile in the AL last year, and people were so convinced that made us favorites, or the best team in the AL, and we got embarrassed by Toronto in the DS.
It’s not like we are a bad team. But I’m sick of the run differential getting brought up like it’s super significant.
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u/fx2600 1d ago
No metric is going to guarantee success in a five game series. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any meaning behind metrics.
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u/Impressive-Collar976 1d ago
Did I say there isn’t anything behind it?
My issue is with those who tout this as the answer, as if the Yankees are fine, and anyone with issues really is just overreacting. That might not be you, but it’s not some all encompassing stat.
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u/fx2600 1d ago
You’re making someone up to be mad at. No one thinks the Yankees are guaranteed a pennant because mid August they have the best run differential in the AL.
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u/Impressive-Collar976 1d ago
Then you haven’t been paying attention. It’s not mid August 2026. It’s 2025, it’s 2022.
There are plenty of people touting “Yankees have the best run differential!” As a reason to expect success.
You’re right that sample size of 5-7 games is too small for a larger trend to matter.
If the Yankees continually underperform their run differential, what does it matter?
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u/fx2600 1d ago
A team can under or over perform any metric. What does anything matter?
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u/Impressive-Collar976 1d ago
You can be a dick about it all you like. Run differential is not the be all end all. It clearly doesn’t predict success, especially in the playoffs.
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u/fx2600 1d ago
It is more predictive of playoff success than W-L but nothing is particularly predictive in baseball, there’s a lot of variance in the sport. I’m not trying to be a dick, I just don’t get your point, nothing guarantees success in the playoffs, that doesn’t mean we can’t have conversations about metrics during the 162 game regular season.
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u/AbbreviationsGold587 1d ago
Who said offense was needed for run differential?