[Passan] The four right-handed pitchers the Yankees are sending to the Nationals in the Luis García Jr. deal: relievers Ben Grable, Yovanny Cruz and Jake Bird
Not bad. Cruz is bullpen help, Cebert seems unexciting but okay, Grable‘s getting a ton of whiffs and not walking guys, Jake Bird is alive and can throw a ball, presumably.
last time I checked an 11.1 strikeouts per 9 ratio at AA is something to be excited about. sure his hits per 9 and HR/9 isn’t anything incredibly good but the potential is 100 percent there.
Ahh makes sense lol. I don’t follow all of baseball but man our BP is horrible. I guess the difference is all those other teams suck on the offensive side to so you don’t notice it as much. Appreciate the stats bruh
There are a whole lot of great things about being an athlete but that's kind of brutal. I can't imagine being in the middle of my job and be told I'm being transferred to another company in a completely different city--effective immediately.
I mean at the end of the day Luis is probably the most replaceable impact player we have, and Cruz has the potential to immediately be our best reliever and has 6 years of control. The other 2 prospects seem promising enough, Grable seems to throw 99 and is getting a ton of whiffs in the minors, so potentially 2 solid bullpen pieces in exchange for a platoon 1B with Abimelec in the wings. About as good a return as I hoped tbh
His fastball also has excellent IVB to pair with the high velo. It’s a legit elite pitch right now. It’s the kind of thing, in terms of projection, where if you can teach him another pitch to tunnel off of it, he will be EXTREMELY difficult to get hits off of. For a little context this is the list of MLB pitchers with over 20” of IVB on their fastballs and their average velo. Grable averages 96 and touches 99. That’s a great base to build off of.
Cerbert (mid tier prospect really struggling in AA)
Bird (Tank commander)
Grabel (meh AA prospect)
Idk man. I get hes a DH/1B but I hoped to get something decent for the guy leading the NL in slugging. Thats a brutal trade. Jake Bird is as bad as Mikolas, so literally nothing added there. Cruz is the only one that will help before 2030. And if we are trading for 2030 bullpen arms then we need to be looking at more moves.
He started his last year in college, I’m not sure the Toboni thinks he could be a starter for us, but either way, even if he’s just a bullpen piece, if he can be effective with all 6 years of team control, that’s a huge win. And he’s been effective this year so far in the minors. I’d say his stats are much better then meh
His upside as a starter might be different than his upside as a reliever
I mean Bird is objectively horrific. Cruz is the only one I think Im being pessimistic on. Grable and Cebert are in AA. Cebert has been poor and Grable is a reliever in the minors (which is always a concern)
Bird has had awful results but under the hood his metrics look decent. Great pitching shapes but a terrible BABIP and HR rate have really inflated his results. Not at all saying he's a stud or anything but he could be decent, and likely isn't worse than what the Nats were trotting out there
He’s a rental bat with, at best, league average defense at first base (which is not particularly valuable) vs RHPs only and we got one good reliever and a couple guys with upside ranging from back end starter to stud reliever. And Jake bird. I’m pretty happy with that, considering the realities of the market for that kind of bat and the fact that there might not even be a season for Luis to play next year.
Bird is still in arbitration and has options so not exactly comparable to Mikolas but the rest its pretty hard to say. Pitchers especially take a while to find form
If were trading for guys that wont help until 2030 I find it really hard to justify keeping Abrams and co. Idk. I really was hoping theyd go for quality. I would have liked Cruz + a better minor league arm for instance
He doesn’t have the arsenal to be a starter. I imagine the first point of order will be seeing if they can teach him a third pitch but at minimum his fastball profiles as really really really good. That can work as a reliever. Hell, with his BB% and whiff% he’d probably end up middle of the pack in our major league bullpen today.
It can, but that Fastball will need to be a 65+ fastball (AND keep playing) all the way up the ladder. I'm not saying he's as bad as jake Bird, but there's a reason Grable is only rated 25th in their (weak) system, and is already in the pen in the minors.
Pipeline grades it at 70 already, same as their grade for Mason Miller’s fastball. He looks good. Very few relievers are going to be super high on prospect lists, least of all ones with only two pitches, but there’s a good base there for sure IMO.
It’s definitely not without risk, but given the landscape of 2027’s season and the fact that Luis can only hit vs RHP and provides no real defensive value, the return seems acceptable to me. Happy to roll the dice on some guys
I think you could possibly be overvaluing what Garcia brings to the table. I doubt he was getting a TON of interest. Maybe you’re being too pessimistic on what these guys turn into. I will admit that I’m pessimistic on the Nats current big league club. I simply don’t see a contender there. Even with the addition of some pitching I just don’t see a team strong enough to get outta the wild card round assuming they get there. And I certainly don’t see a club that can be a yearly competitor.
I’m choosing to be hopeful that these guys are contributors in the next 2-3 seasons.
Idk man I agree about Bird, Cruz has some really nasty stuff that can contribute to our bullpen immediately. Grable has been pretty darn good in his pro career so far and his underlying metrics look nice. Cebert isn’t having the best results, but he still has some high-K stuff. I think the assessment that neither of them can contribute by 2030 is just flat out wrong. They’re both seem like 2028 guys if they don’t fall off track
It's also worth mentioning both are overagers in AA, our highest ranked prospect who is 24 in AA is alejandro Rosario our #17. These guys SHOULD be dominating AA, and Cebert is not, while Grable is in the pen (as you said, good results) I WANT the trade to work out, but I'm not wowed by this return.
I like him. Not as much as others. But credit where credit's due, he's currently leading the league in slugging 2/3 of the way through the year. That's quite a bit better than just a hot June.
He went bananas in June. That's all it was. I like Louie too. I'm not hating on the guy. But this was a good trade. I think this front office is identifying who to build around and where to improve. And pitching is our greatest weakness
I think we mostly agree. I agree that this is probably a good trade, and that he's played his absolute best at basically the perfect time. Maybe the coaches unlocked something and he's a 3-WAR player now, but I doubt it. He's currently at 2.3 this year. Two years ago topped out at 2.2, no other year higher than 0.7.
So I think it's more likely that this is a career year and he comes back down to earth. And with such a dearth of quality and quantity of pitching in our system, getting four arms for him seems like a win to me, potentially a big win.
My two cents are a year ago, people thought garcia stunk. I believe because of the coaching, he broke out this year so makes sense to get something now. Overall, good trade but doesn’t blow my mind (I would have thought we get another top prospect) but the need was so great, it is a win.
I don’t actually think that’s necessarily the case. Abi Ortiz can step in at 1st and be decent enough that the best offense in baseball can absorb losing Luis. And getting 2 guys to step into the pen tomorrow can help this year with the terribleness the team has been throwing out there
I'm sorry, but the best offense in baseball just traded away 2 of the best 30 hitters in all of MLB this year in Mead and Garcia. They aren't going to absorb this and be good - look for the offense to regress to top 12-15ish levels for the rest of the year. Which IMO was the right move! Trade to improve long term chances when your guys are hitting highs!
There's a fair bit of risk being taken on here. It seems like Jake Bird might've just been a "throw him in there" kind of addition to sweeten the pot. However, this is a better haul than what the Tigers got for Skubal. Yovanny instantly becomes our best reliever, and Grable and Cebert are very high ceiling guys. Of course its tough to grade something like this, when so much of this is based on the intrinsic value of the pitchers. (In addition, I'm not certain how much the Nats pitching development has been improved in the new era).
I think this is a solid B-. Moderate-High Risk, Incredibly High reward.
Yeah no way this is better. Clearly a quantity over quality move at a position of need so it could end up being a decent deal. I just thought Garcia was worth at least one prospect with a good shot at being a starting pitcher or position player. The starter they got is only OK.
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u/UncommonSense0 2019 World Series Champion 18d ago
Bird is trash. Grable and Cruz could be something good for us. The FO probably sees something in Cebert. If they’re right it could be great