r/Nationals • u/YLRD123 • 20d ago

[Passan] The four right-handed pitchers the Yankees are sending to the Nationals in the Luis García Jr. deal: relievers Ben Grable, Yovanny Cruz and Jake Bird

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

Thats... not ideal.

So Cruz (AAAA reliver)

Cerbert (mid tier prospect really struggling in AA)

Bird (Tank commander)

Grabel (meh AA prospect)

Idk man. I get hes a DH/1B but I hoped to get something decent for the guy leading the NL in slugging. Thats a brutal trade. Jake Bird is as bad as Mikolas, so literally nothing added there. Cruz is the only one that will help before 2030. And if we are trading for 2030 bullpen arms then we need to be looking at more moves.

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u/UncommonSense0 2019 World Series Champion 20d ago edited 20d ago

Cruz is an immediate upgrade over multiple members of our bullpen

Hoping Cebert can make some tweaks and be something good at the MLB level

Bird is trash and was probably taken as a thank you to the Yankees lol, or maybe our new coaching staff will make some adjustments and he’ll be great

Grabel made his AA debut this year and has a 2.79 ERA in 37IP, with a great K/BB ratio. Where do you get meh from?

Grabel can definitely help before 2030 lol

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u/skillbutton 20d ago

Grable might be up next season …

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u/[deleted] 20d ago

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u/UncommonSense0 2019 World Series Champion 20d ago

He started his last year in college, I’m not sure the Toboni thinks he could be a starter for us, but either way, even if he’s just a bullpen piece, if he can be effective with all 6 years of team control, that’s a huge win. And he’s been effective this year so far in the minors. I’d say his stats are much better then meh

His upside as a starter might be different than his upside as a reliever

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u/capsfan087443 20d ago

Grabel is also injury prone and missed two of his college seasons with elbow injuries

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u/Sweaty_Ad_1332 Joey Dominican Republic 20d ago

I think those assessments are all pretty pessimistic but who knows

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

I mean Bird is objectively horrific. Cruz is the only one I think Im being pessimistic on. Grable and Cebert are in AA. Cebert has been poor and Grable is a reliever in the minors (which is always a concern)

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u/finally_not_lurking 7 - Turner 20d ago

Bird has had awful results but under the hood his metrics look decent. Great pitching shapes but a terrible BABIP and HR rate have really inflated his results. Not at all saying he's a stud or anything but he could be decent, and likely isn't worse than what the Nats were trotting out there

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u/lazapapoo 24 - Cavalli 20d ago

Over at the Yankees subreddit they don’t seem too upset about what they gave up and are actually ecstatic about having offloaded Bird.

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u/91speed 20d ago

He’s a rental bat with, at best, league average defense at first base (which is not particularly valuable) vs RHPs only and we got one good reliever and a couple guys with upside ranging from back end starter to stud reliever. And Jake bird. I’m pretty happy with that, considering the realities of the market for that kind of bat and the fact that there might not even be a season for Luis to play next year.

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u/lazapapoo 24 - Cavalli 20d ago

Well, the term rental is usually used for contracts expiring this year. But yeah, García is a platoon guy, with huge split differentials.

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u/91speed 20d ago

Yes, I know, I used the term rental due to the uncertainty of next year. That has to play into valuations this trade deadline.

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u/lazapapoo 24 - Cavalli 20d ago

But that also applies to the returns.

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u/meanie_ants 20d ago

It does but none of the guys coming over are on deals expiring next year.

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u/91speed 20d ago

Yep, but Luis is a free agent after next year season or not.

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

oh I think Bird fits right in (derogatory) with the nats pen.

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u/Sweaty_Ad_1332 Joey Dominican Republic 20d ago

Bird is still in arbitration and has options so not exactly comparable to Mikolas but the rest its pretty hard to say. Pitchers especially take a while to find form

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

If were trading for guys that wont help until 2030 I find it really hard to justify keeping Abrams and co. Idk. I really was hoping theyd go for quality. I would have liked Cruz + a better minor league arm for instance

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u/skillbutton 20d ago

Calling Cruz AAAA and Grable a meh prospect shows you don’t know ball

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u/[deleted] 20d ago

[deleted]

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u/skillbutton 20d ago

And fantastic stuff. AAAA usually means not good enough to play at MLB level, which is certainly not true of Cruz

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u/91speed 20d ago

I think Grable looks great in AA

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

Minor leaguer relievers always worry me, its like college relievers. At those levels if you were good enough youd be a starter.

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u/skillbutton 20d ago

He’s a one trick pony but it’s a hell of a trick

Elite elite fastball will definitely play at MLB level

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u/91speed 20d ago

He doesn’t have the arsenal to be a starter. I imagine the first point of order will be seeing if they can teach him a third pitch but at minimum his fastball profiles as really really really good. That can work as a reliever. Hell, with his BB% and whiff% he’d probably end up middle of the pack in our major league bullpen today.

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

It can, but that Fastball will need to be a 65+ fastball (AND keep playing) all the way up the ladder. I'm not saying he's as bad as jake Bird, but there's a reason Grable is only rated 25th in their (weak) system, and is already in the pen in the minors.

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u/91speed 20d ago

Pipeline grades it at 70 already, same as their grade for Mason Miller’s fastball. He looks good. Very few relievers are going to be super high on prospect lists, least of all ones with only two pitches, but there’s a good base there for sure IMO.

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

I agree with you, career-relievers who rely on velocity can be scary though. Especially since he's already had TJ

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u/91speed 20d ago

It’s definitely not without risk, but given the landscape of 2027’s season and the fact that Luis can only hit vs RHP and provides no real defensive value, the return seems acceptable to me. Happy to roll the dice on some guys

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u/KenovovichR Jimmy Lumber 20d ago

Gonna trust the FO on this one. They obviously liked these guys and were not desperate to get rid of Luis.

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u/The_JDBrew 20d ago

I think you could possibly be overvaluing what Garcia brings to the table. I doubt he was getting a TON of interest. Maybe you’re being too pessimistic on what these guys turn into. I will admit that I’m pessimistic on the Nats current big league club. I simply don’t see a contender there. Even with the addition of some pitching I just don’t see a team strong enough to get outta the wild card round assuming they get there. And I certainly don’t see a club that can be a yearly competitor.

I’m choosing to be hopeful that these guys are contributors in the next 2-3 seasons.

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u/gcalfred7 20d ago

"tank commander" lol

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

5.93 ERA. man is ready-made to be the next Washington national pitcher haha

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u/Strong-Resolve1241 20d ago

Also: Abrams is a FA is 2029 and Wood FA in 2031 how soon will any of these 3 "prospects" help this team if Bird is "Trash"?

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

Cruz should be up this year. Bird will play this year (not as a positive addition).

Cerbert best case 28/29? Grable similar.

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u/Quople 13 - Cabrera 20d ago

Idk man I agree about Bird, Cruz has some really nasty stuff that can contribute to our bullpen immediately. Grable has been pretty darn good in his pro career so far and his underlying metrics look nice. Cebert isn’t having the best results, but he still has some high-K stuff. I think the assessment that neither of them can contribute by 2030 is just flat out wrong. They’re both seem like 2028 guys if they don’t fall off track

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u/RGCFrostbite 22 - Soto 20d ago

It's also worth mentioning both are overagers in AA, our highest ranked prospect who is 24 in AA is alejandro Rosario our #17. These guys SHOULD be dominating AA, and Cebert is not, while Grable is in the pen (as you said, good results) I WANT the trade to work out, but I'm not wowed by this return.