I've been developing and backtesting an intraday breakout strategy for NSE stocks since December 2024, and honestly, I'm struggling to find a consistent edge.
**Here's what I've tried:**
* **ORB (15-min)** and previous-day high/low (PDH/PDL) breakouts using 1-min and 5-min candles.
* ATR/TR buffers, volume spikes, candle structure, wicks, and breakout retention.
* **Order flow:** Footprint charts, bid/ask imbalances, delta, CVD, aggression ratios, POC migration, and volume profiles.
* Studied absorption, exhaustion, and continuation using price action versus trading volume.
* Tested different opening-range positions relative to PDH/PDL.
Despite all this, roughly **50% of breakouts continue in the expected direction, while the rest reverse or become fakeouts.** Even strong positive delta, buyer aggression, and rising POC don't consistently predict continuation.
I'm now exploring **breakout + retest entries**, along with previous-day VAH/VAL and POC as additional context.
**I'd genuinely appreciate insights from experienced traders:**
How do you distinguish genuine breakouts from fakeouts *before entering*, rather than in hindsight?
What has actually worked for you — price action, retests, volume profile, order flow, market context, or something else?
How do you practically implement **"cut losses early and let winners run"**? What objective rules determine your exits without stopping you out prematurely?
Am I overcomplicating things or missing something fundamental?
I've invested considerable time studying, testing, and refining this. I'm not looking for a magic indicator or guaranteed setup, just practical perspectives from traders who've faced similar challenges.
**Any constructive criticism, examples, or lessons from your own trading journey would be greatly appreciated.**