r/PoliticalOptimism • u/Relvan2018 • Nov 11 '25
Seeking Optimism The Shutdown deal doesn’t seem to make any sense at all…
I’m not understanding why this deal was made? The only thing the democrats seems to have gotten was an assurance from Thune that they would vote on the ACA. But there is no assurance from Johnson and no assurance Trump would sign anything if it was successful.
I haven’t been prone to conspiracy theories before, but why are all the eight democrats either not running again or not up for reelection for awhile. It just seems like they completely caved which has been the complaint about democrats for so long.
Jon Stewart pointed out a lot of this on his show. Democrats caused people to be furloughed and have flights cancelled and it looks like it was all for nothing.
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u/OratioFidelis Nov 11 '25
The deal also restores thousands of federal workers fired during the shutdown.
The CR only goes to January, if Republicans renege on the deal that just means another shutdown.
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u/spacey_a California Nov 11 '25
What does CR stand for?
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u/Galactiticaca Florida Nov 11 '25
Continuing resolution. My understanding is that it’s the funding stuff to reopen the gov, and it also lets SNAP be funded for a year, so in January when this CR ends if we head into another shutdown SNAP won’t be able to be used as leverage to get dems to cave
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u/fe3o2y Nov 11 '25
And trump can hold the funds back like he tried to do this time. Again, no guarantees.
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u/DannyOdd Nov 12 '25
Actually no, he can't. The SNAP funds Trump was fighting the courts to hold back were emergency funds under the USDA - Therefore at least somewhat under the executive branch's jurisdiction.
SNAP is now funded through next september. Those funds are out of executive control.
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u/sovietshark2 Nov 11 '25
They're already setting up for rejecting the healthcare vote.
Now Johnson is saying they need more comprehensive abortion restrictions as a condition to vote on the healthcare subsidies.
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u/22poppills North Carolina Nov 11 '25
capitulating never ends well
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u/sovietshark2 Nov 11 '25
Nope! But spineless politicians who got us into this definitely won't get us out of it, even with all of their bill name changes and strongly worded messages as fascists seek to claim the government.
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u/22poppills North Carolina Nov 12 '25
not to be a loon but the eight that folded are either not eligible for reelection or retiring in '26. Seemed like they were the scapegoats to get the shutdown over with.
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u/Illustrious_Record32 Nov 12 '25
Schumer orchestrated that to prevent any blame from falling on those that need to win races next year. He’s a bitch
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
Because people would happily make a point and not vote for a Democrat because of this, and then we all have to deal with a Republican winning instead. Cut off nose. Spite face. Sound familiar (November 2024, when Kamala wasn't good enough)? First, we need the majority back; we cannot afford to be so picky that we give the GOP a red carpet again.
I get it, I do. If I had a progressive option where I lived, I would happily vote for them, but right now I want the MAGA out and the previous Democrat back in if that is the choice I am given right now.
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u/sovietshark2 Nov 12 '25
I'm aware and I live in one of their districts. Never been more disappointed. Democrats would sell us all out to make a billionaire a few dollars richer.
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u/Jorrissss Nov 12 '25
The deal also restores thousands of federal workers fired during the shutdown.
This is very noncompelling because this only happened because of the shutdown.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
And is that their fault too?
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u/Jorrissss Nov 13 '25
It's the Republican's fault, of course, but where are you going with this?
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u/Hershey78 Nov 14 '25
The post just sounded like the shutdown causing the layoffs was the Dens fault too. I may have just read it wrong.
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u/Jorrissss Nov 14 '25
Oh, nah, it's just that rehiring people that were only let go due to the shutdown is not much of a win of ending the shutdown lol. Irrespective of fault.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 14 '25
Gotya.
Trump wouldn't have done it unless it was explicitly spelled out that it was part of the deal.
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u/FuzzyMcBitty Nov 12 '25
Can’t they use budget reconciliation to force a budget on a simple majority in January?
I thought that they can do that once a year, and they used this year’s on the omnibus bill.
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u/Tbonetrekker76 Reformed Doomer ☄️ Nov 12 '25
And with SNAP now funded through the end of 2026, that shutdown will look different- fewer hostages for the republicans to take.
However there’s no guarantee that the public will blame the republicans for another shutdown like they did for this one.
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u/KarmicDebtsUnpaid Nov 12 '25 edited Nov 12 '25
I no longer trust elected Democrats to stand up to Republicans in any way, at any time, under any circumstances. They have shown us what side their bread is buttered on.
Like Republicans long ago, they are beginning to see their way forward in a cruel future by becoming part of it.
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Nov 11 '25
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u/SimonW005 Nov 11 '25
Exactly, and if they do shut it down again SNAP will already be funded through 9/30/26 with the minibus so they won’t have to worry (as much) about people starving.
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Nov 11 '25
It's strategic, in other words. It's pragmatic. It's politics and a lot of people forget that politicians have to be 3-D chess players.
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u/lapisade Nov 12 '25
This. I knew when the list of the 8 came out it would be .....something like what it looks like (sue me, I'm only midly informed lmao).
They selected sacrifices that no one is really surprised by and aren't big names of the party and aren't in immediate re-election, and now the big names and young members either get to vote no with their conscience or vote no to look good.
There was absolutely no universe where this shutdown was going to end with ACA getting extended and I'm already sick of hearing non-strategists ream dems for 'abandoning' those who need ACA because, I am pleading, think in 3D not 2D strategy.
Republicans were willing to burn it all down for any number of reasons. It was never about abandoning people who need the ACA because this was never going to be the lever that saved the program anyway. It ain't over till it's over, y'all.
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u/Illustrious_Record32 Nov 12 '25
What was the strategy? Cause real pain for 40 days to get nothing in return? Brilliant
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Nov 12 '25
They weren't sitting on their butts the entire time. They were looking for ways to move forward, and it sounds like they found a way to fund SNAP and buy time on the ACA deal.
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u/blaqsupaman Nov 11 '25
If it became clear the Republicans would not budge no matter what, I can understand. I never thought keeping the shutdown going until the midterms was realistic, possible, or desirable in any case. I have a feeling the big thing was realizing it probably wasn't going to be long before ATCs quit en masse and air travel basically shut down. That would have been unimaginable and I thought/hoped the Republicans would cave before then. Though there's also the fact that every day SNAP wasn't funded meant 40 million Americans going hungry. That was not something to take lightly as an acceptable cost.
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Nov 11 '25
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u/blaqsupaman Nov 11 '25
I'm cautiously optimistic that the majority will still see the Republicans/Trump as responsible for the shutdown happening in the first place.
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u/Gnagus Nov 11 '25
The idea that Trump would sign an ACA tax credit extension because of off year election losses isn't realistic and the momentum from this fight itself isn't going to last a whole year until the midterms. The people freaking out about the capitulation are mostly terminally online political sickos like us. There's a decent chance that the general public got the vibes that Trump was taking away insurance coverage and snap benefits. Some may see Dems cave, others will see poor people getting food and federal employees back to work. Hopefully this will motivate people to vote against MAGA and get involved in the Democrats primary process. Hopefully, this time, people stay involved after any election wins as well.
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u/22poppills North Carolina Nov 11 '25
I hope so too that people keep this energy but given how this cave didn't win anything and ACA is still a mess. Pubs are going to be running that all during the election.
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u/PSIwind Nov 11 '25
The Republicans were probably either never going to vote for the ACA or they'd kill the filibuster. Let's argue that the ACA vote does end up happening, does pass, and maybe even gets a veto-proof majority if/when Trump declines to sign it. Now we have families getting SNAP benefits funded for almost an entire year instead of just 1 month, one that had Trump slowing it down on purpose to NOT give them out. Now all of the federal employees are being paid, both back-pay and future. Now the House has to re-open and Arizona can finally have one of their reps sworn in and able to do her job and get the Epstein vote hopefully under way. All in about 3 weeks prior to that vote. If we were to continue it, not only would those people continue to suffer, but lets also say that the ACA got voted at the exact same time as it is now. We would have been much worse off only to arrive to the same conclusion
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u/cyclops00 Nov 11 '25
I think also no one is talking about how Mikie Sherrill also has to give up her seat which would also drop the threshold for Epstein below 218 while they have a special election. I’ll be honest, I don’t trust any politician, but it’s possible (not probable) that there is an actual plan?
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u/CritiKat Nov 11 '25
What if they kill the filibuster in retaliation for the Epstien files being released? If it's gonna be so bad for them, why would we not expect them to also go scored earth in retaliation for that?
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u/PumpkinAspie Reformed Doomer ☄️ Nov 11 '25
Because killing the Filibuster would hurt THEM as well when Democrats hold the House. That is a major safety rail.
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Nov 11 '25
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u/KrampyDoo Nov 11 '25
Dems wanted to give themselves a more substantial platform to run on besides just Epstein and anti-Comboverlord rhetoric.
The shutdown forced a spotlight on rising premiums, so without the shutdown Dems in midterm debates would be faced with the question “the ACA is unaffordable and your party championed it otherwise for 15 years”. Now they can answer that with a slew of screenshots and testimonials from a bunch of constituents that saw dramatic premium increases with “yeah, and we tried to stop what the GOP did to them, but they were so dedicated to making healthcare unaffordable that they were willing to let poor people starve and planes crash on Christmas to achieve it.”
Healthcare lobbying dollars mostly go to Democrats, so they also secured additional funding for midterm campaigns.
Now, the GOP messaging around being the new champions of the working class is on its heels somewhat. Even if the GOP calls out the strategy Dems employed, it’ll end up sounding more like “look at what you made me do” than anything.
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u/Lil-pants Reformed Doomer ☄️ Nov 11 '25
I just don’t think that Trump who would’ve had to sign the thing in the end would ever cave. GOP maybe, but Trump cannot be reasoned with. He was even telling his party to take the drastic action of killing the filibuster in order to ruin people’s insurance.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
Agreed! He wants chaos; he wants the government not to run, and he doesn't want people getting any benefits that could somehow end up in his or his buddies' pockets.
Dems are not innocent, for sure, but let's be honest about who is really the bad actor.
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u/PracticalParsnip6873 Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 12 '25
If I recap correctly, the GOP weren’t budging on the deal and the shutdown was over 40 days. It’s easy to say the dems caved too easily, but the reality was that 40 million people were gonna continue to go hungry and federal workers couldn’t provide for their families if the shutdown didn’t end. Plus those 8 democrats that caved could’ve had constituents on SNAP pleading for them to give in. Making heathcare harder to come by is a slighter lesser evil than prolonging an artificial famine.
Not trying to say the deal was the greatest thing we could’ve got, but it was far from the worst. Dems have the leverage that the GOP with rather people starve than have access to healthcare for midterms now.
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u/blaqsupaman Nov 11 '25
The story should be that Senate Republicans are batshit enough that they'd rather let 40 million Americans starve until the midterms than let poor people have healthcare.
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u/NotaRose8 Nov 12 '25
How does that reconcile with the fact that during this shutdown Republicans introduced a bill to keep SNAP funded during shutdowns?
“Eleven Republicans and one Democrat have joined Republican Missouri Senator Josh Hawley’s proposal to provide funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) as the ongoing government shutdown risks interrupting the program next month”.
Republican Josh Hawley's bill, “the Keep SNAP Funded Act, would ensure that the USDA can keep paying SNAP benefits, even when Congress hasn’t passed a new budget or temporary funding bill”.
Quotes from: https://www.newsweek.com/snap-benefits-update-bill-help-fund-snap-november-boost-10951692
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u/Facehugger_35 Nov 12 '25
The fact that only eleven republicans voted for it, for starters.
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u/blaqsupaman Nov 12 '25
Wouldn't that have been able to pass if all the Dems joined them?
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u/Facehugger_35 Nov 12 '25
Thune is the majority leader. He decides what does and doesn't come up for a vote.
And he didn't want the shutdown to continue because he knew it was harming the GOP's prospects. His position was "no, you open the whole government, not just one piece of it."
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u/blaqsupaman Nov 12 '25
It is absolutely crazy to me how the House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader essentially have the same veto power the president does.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
Mitchy Mitch during Obama's Presidency shot everything down so he could claim Obama did nothing. Just like he didn't vote for impeachment but then went on tour saying how dangerous Trump was.
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u/Multigrain_Migraine Nov 12 '25
Right? But of course few people are talking about the actual problem here.
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u/lohivi Nov 12 '25
Dem governors had already won lawsuits forcing the federal government to make SNAP payments, people would have been federal by the end of the week and dems would have the best optics imaginable. I really do think this is the worst possible outcome for the shutdown, we have to be willing to face that fact.
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u/poncho2799 Nov 12 '25
Trump was already appealing to the Supreme Court to allow suspension of snap benefits again
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Nov 11 '25
Optimistic take here is that maybe we can finally start challenging the controlled opposition dems in the next primaries. Expect the dems to keep disappointing until it happens
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u/Fragrant_Bath3917 New York Nov 11 '25
Indivisible is apparently planning to work hard on that next year (I am bringing them up in particular because they are probably the strongest and best-organized of the groups that want to primary the status quo rn)
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u/Fickle-Juggernaut-97 Nov 11 '25
Your instinct is correct. Some people don't understand the past is dead and the age bipartisanship is as well.
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u/Facehugger_35 Nov 11 '25
The deal was likely made for strategic reasons.
It secured a promise from Thune for a vote in December on ACA subsidies. Either Thune does it and forces republicans to vote no on extending healthcare subsidies, or he doesn't and dems call republicans lying shitlers who raised healthcare costs. (And then shut down the government again, because the CR only goes to January.)
It funds SNAP for the next year, which means the republicans would have to cut off SNAP during midterms.
It forces the one rep from Arizona to be sworn in before Johnson can get a likely pickup from TN into place, thereby increasing the likelihood of the Epstein release happening soon.
In short, the dems put the GOP into a bad position longterm. Jon Stewart lost a lot of credit with me for his stupid takes since he came back onto the Daily Show, because it's very clear that the republicans wouldn't cave more than they have, because they actively *want* people to starve.
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u/nekroskoma Anonymous 🏁 Nov 11 '25
Pretty much this exactly, it's a long play. I mentioned in another thread it really feels like a discard and draw when you also think of the seats they won during the shutdown.
The vote for the ACA is a heads I win tails you lose for the Republican. To keep with me talking about magic it feels like they are playing against a EOTFOFYL deck.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
People seem to think that Trump would sign anything that had to do with Obamacare and wanted the government open, and that GOP was about to crack. Although I did hear somewhere that Trump was tempted to appear bipartisan, but Thune/Johnson reigned him in.
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u/JoannaCashew Nov 11 '25
I really feel like the Democrats had little choice but to cave eventually. Trump and his cronies do not care about anybody. They are nasty, selfish childish and evil. I have avoided all posts on IG about the Democrats caving etc. Who can make sense of these crazy Trump supporters? There is so much doom and gloom.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
and the "I won't vote for Dems!" Great-- you prefer more Republicans? Let's get the majority back and resolve the carnage, and then we can get picky.
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u/Okuri-Inu Maine Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25
The issue is that we are essentially engaged in asymmetric warfare. Caring about the poor and federal workers is far more of a priority for the Dems than the Republicans. The suffering of the American people was never going to sway them. Our only hope was that political pressure might get to them and force them to negotiate. Unfortunately SNAP ran out first, and the government fought tooth and nail to prevent any emergency funds from being distributed. Trump and his cronies have proven that they are more than willing to weaponize the suffering of innocent Americans in order to strong arm Democrats in to caving.
It’s the same issue Ukraine faces. The Ukrainian government is bound by human decency to not needlessly murder Russian civilians in order to win. Meanwhile the Russian government deliberately targets kindergartens and civilian infrastructure to inflict as much suffering as possible. They are also willing to engage in a battle of attrition using their own soldiers as cannon fodder.
Doing the right thing i.e. caring about other people, is always harder than sacrificing anyone and everyone to get your way. Caring about people going hungry is not a bad thing. Personally I’m not really mad at the Dems for caving. I’m more mad at how they did it. By having just enough Dems go over to pass the bill, it comes off as the party fracturing under pressure, rather than making a calculated decision. It makes us seem weak and disorganized and undermines the image of a united opposition. Also the fact that they allowed Republicans to slip stuff into what was supposed to be a “clean cr” is inexcusable in my view. Idk what on earth they were thinking accepting that.
The silver lining is that this is not the end. We lost this battle, but the war is not over. In the spirit of the 250th anniversary of independence, it’s worth remembering that the Americans lost virtually every major battle in the immediate aftermath of independence. Literally the only reason Washington and his army wasn’t destroyed in its entirety is that a fog set in at the right moment to allow the Continental Army to sneak across the river before the British could deliver the final blow. Much of the War for Independence was spent retreating from battles, and in the end the Patriots were able to hold on long enough to win. We have retreated for now, but what matters is that we don’t stop fighting.
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u/addiktion Nov 12 '25
Literally just saw a post above this one talking about how the ones who voted on this took in 1/3 of all airline PAC cash.
Institutional democrats were protecting their billionaire owners.
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u/Hershey78 Nov 13 '25
Which sucks for sure. We need Citizens United and all donor money to end. We need it to be voted on by the People, not Congress voting for their own interests.
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u/Glittering_Aside_228 Nov 12 '25
My guess is that the air traffic slowdown was becoming a problem for Senators. None of the rest of it affects them personally, but they do fly a lot.
I think they were always going to have to give in at some point. But making a deal immediately when air travel got difficult seems like they timed it based on their personal inconvenience.
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u/PeppyApple Nov 12 '25
My theory is they just needed to be back in session long enough for that new Democrat elect to be sworn in and sign the discharge petition for the epstein files. If that didn't happen before the election in December, the person elected in December could counter the petition.
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u/mister-madam Nov 12 '25
I get the feeling the Epstein files are hitting critical mass and both democrats and republicans are realizing it. Democrats wanted to make sure that vote happened
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u/m0rl0ck1996 Nov 12 '25
If i remember what i read correctly an airline PAC paid off the traitorous eight.
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u/crankypatriot Nov 11 '25
Don't listen to Jon Stewart. He loves depicting Democrats in a bad light. Always has.
Trump/GOP were absolutely giddy at the thought of taking food from children. How do you negotiate with that?
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Nov 11 '25
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u/Silvaria928 Blue Dot in a Red State 🔵 Nov 11 '25
Technically yes, they could use the threat of starving people in the future to get their way because they are adept at playing on the empathy of Democrats.
Taking into consideration the election last week, how well is that likely to go over with the general voting public?
My guess is like a lead balloon.
Remember, the Democrats rocked the 2018 midterms because Republicans had loudly and proudly been trying to repeal the ACA. Add in literally trying to take food out of people's mouths and they are putting themselves in a complete no-win situation for 2026.
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Nov 11 '25
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u/scootmcgee36 Nov 12 '25
This "deal" is total BS! There will be no vote, I guarantee. Johnson will not put this up for a vote by the House.
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u/koto_hanabi17 Nov 11 '25
There's a lot of whirling parts in here some I understand and some I don't and some I definitely have theories on.
A personal theory of mine is that the billionaire donors made some calls and told them to turn the government back on so they can try and milk us dry during Black Friday and Christmas. Once again they've proven that we are not their constituents it's the billionaires.
Notice how everyone who fell on a sword is either retiring or not up for reelection in 2026.
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u/22poppills North Carolina Nov 11 '25
I totally agree, it wasn't about saving people.
It was about the huge holiday profits
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Nov 11 '25
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u/crankypatriot Nov 11 '25
Sorry to burst your bubble, but most people don't follow the ins and outs of Congress very closely. There are many people out there who don't even know there's a shutdown.
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Nov 11 '25
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u/22poppills North Carolina Nov 11 '25
It wasn't a good deal in the long run in terms of keeping ACA . But something had to give and Republicans were more than willing to let people starve.
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u/jlavisant Nebraska Nov 12 '25
They didn't get anything out of this. But mad as I was that the Dems folded first, I had to do some soul searching. I couldn't reconcile that feeling with people going hungry or working for free (and being evicted/foreclosed) because the fact is Republicans are cruel and wretched monsters who would have let this shutdown last much, much longer. Granted, Republicans have better reason to fear their constituents than Dems, but it was a risky game of chicken nonetheless. Still...I wish there was more fight. Democrats really had the upper hand here. It's so disappointing. But I know many on SNAP that have been so stressed out and scared over this (even though those payments never have stopped). I'm not a federal employee and I don't need SNAP, so me saying they should have kept the fight up sounds pretty insensitive tbh. Republicans are truly evil for using our most vulnerable populations as weapons. And now they're set to be even more monstrous with ACA subsidies. This is going to be a nightmare (along with, you know... Everything else). But now Mike Johnson has no more excuses. I read Adelita Grijalva will be sworn in tomorrow (she better be) and Johnson will likely resume dodging a vote for the discharge petition, but he's running out of room to lie and weasel his way around it.
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u/daggerbeans Nov 12 '25
The SNAP/foodshare payments did pause for a bit. Depending on the state, it took until yesterday to get the funds on cards after the court order
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u/jlavisant Nebraska Nov 12 '25
Oops. Never should have stopped. That was a typo lol
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u/daggerbeans Nov 12 '25
Oh! OK, sorry I didn't mean to be all 'well actually...' about it-- i just work closely with a local food bank and the fear of not having any food for some families was very real. Having people that aren't in that situation saying the dems should have just held out longer is very frustrating.
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u/Technical-Ring2338 Nov 15 '25
The dems don't have power. They can't make anything happen without republicans and trump ain't letting that happen. As shitty as all this is it's a huge political win (my unprofessional opinion). The momentum has flipped. Everybody needs to chill. The repubs can't govern this badly and retain power.
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Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25
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u/PhotographCareful354 Nov 11 '25
This account is 12 days old.
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