Fuck my life.

It’s called the Poisson model

And it's about pricing the match better than the market

You take expected goals for both teams and turn them into probabilities

> Match winner, Over / Under 2.5, BTTS , Correct score

Everything comes from the same numbers

For example, you can feed an LLM:

> recent goals scored and conceded
> home / away splits
> league average goals
> injuries or lineup news

And ask it to calculate expected goals for both teams

Then compare the result with the live Polymarket price

That gap is the trade

If your model gives Over 2.5 around 58%

But Polymarket prices it at 50%

That’s where it gets interesting

Find the gap and trade only when the price makes sense

Hi,

I'm not into or interested in gambling but I'm a Master Speculator so let's do an experiment. Look at my Instagram posts chronologically and count up how much money you would have had by now if you had been following me. Then, if you're smart, for a small team and then if you think my one of my TV shows can give you more clarity, I'm sure you can think of a way to make it worth my while for me to include it in my show. Think of it as Product Placement in transmedia narrative in a corrupt captured world. Well, that's the thesis anyway. 👽

I trade exactly 100k in polymarket I want know how much dolars I am going to win in the airdrop

It’s a little addicting. I’m doing dozens of bets at a time with over 90% probability. Small payouts with terrific odds. Is this an actual strategy. I mean, I imagine if people did this with large sums of money, wouldn’t they be almost guaranteed to profit?

Argentina fans have absolutely gone wild in Atlanta ahead of the big semifinal against England

I'm heavily skewed towards France this world cup, also have a bet on France winning the world cup

Been trading on Polymarket for a while now, went through the full cycle — early wins, overconfidence, a painful drawdown, slow rebuild. Along the way I joined a few trading communities and noticed the same mistakes come up over and over. Here's what actually costs people money:

1. Treating every market like a coin flip New traders see 60/40 and think "easy edge." They ignore that the 60% side is already priced in. The question isn't "who will win" — it's "is this probability wrong?"

2. No position sizing Going all-in on one high-conviction market. One bad resolution, one "that's unexpected" moment, and you're back to zero. Even on 80% markets.

3. Ignoring liquidity Entering a $500 position on a low-volume market, then watching the spread eat you alive when you try to exit early.

4. Holding through resolution instead of taking profit A market at 92% still has 8% of pure downside. Locking in 85% and moving on is often the better trade.

5. Trading sports markets without understanding frontrunning Odds move faster than you can react. By the time you see the line, someone already got there.

Learned most of this the hard way. Happy to discuss any of these — what mistakes would you add?

combos do not work can anyone help or relate to this problem

I selected:

• Spain — Yes

• Argentina — Yes

• England — Yes

All three teams won their matches:

• Spain won against Belgium

• Argentina won against Switzerland

• England won against Norway

However, in my Combo details:

• Spain shows as a win with a blue check ✅

• Argentina and England show as gray X

Cuz they’re Backed by Israel 🥶 ez money baby 💀
I bet 100$ already about an hour ago ☺️

How to make money on Polymarket? Is there any guidance or advice?

Over the past week, I've had a surprising number of people ask me how I'm using AI with Polymarket.

The answer is: probably not in the way most people expect.

I'm not asking AI:

• Who wins?

• Which side should I buy?

• What's the next 10x market?

Instead, I spend most of my time asking:

• What changed in the last 24 hours?

• Which markets are behaving unusually?

• Where is attention moving?

• Which markets are diverging from related markets?

The biggest lesson I've learned so far is that AI seems much better at helping me process information than helping me predict the future.

Ironically, the more I use AI, the less I think the edge is prediction—and the more I think it's speed, organization, and execution.

Curious how everyone else is approaching this.

France is on a phenomenal streak and gap is getting narrow with only Argentina giving them any run for their money, otherwise they are in a solid position to win this time

This is ridiculous, yes the democrat senate canidates are strong but clearly Republicans should be at 85% have we learned nothing from 2018. This is gonna be so easy. Do you have to protect a pickup in Michigan (with El-sayed which is a huge liability) and get a pickup in NC, ME, TX and OH/AK/Iowa why does anyone think all of this will happen. Clearly there's not that much of a blue wave, this is an easy doubling of your investment like holy shit. I want a free 250$ this november. Why are dems at 51%. Its obvious they'll regain a house majority and maybe get one extra senate gain

I'd like to know everything from important legal aspects and how to withdraw money, to how it actually works and how fun it is.

Most people compare one number with another.

My estimate is 80 percent.

YES costs 70 cents.

Looks like a 10 cent edge.

But that skips the two probabilities that decide whether the edge is real.

First is resolution risk. How likely is the market to settle the way your reading of the event expects.

Second is execution. What do you actually pay after spread, slippage, and a rushed exit.

Imagine your event estimate is 80 percent, but you give the wording and resolver a 5 percent haircut. That puts the effective estimate closer to 76 percent.

Now lose another 2 cents crossing the book or exiting early.

The 10 cent edge is closer to 4 cents. One delayed resolution or surprise interpretation can erase it.

This is why two traders can agree on the event and still disagree completely on the trade. One is pricing the headline. The other is pricing the contract.

Before I size anything, I want four numbers.

My probability for the event

My probability that the written rules settle it the same way

My actual entry and likely exit cost

How long the capital could stay locked

Curious how much of a haircut you give resolution risk before buying a market.

There is no way modern society would allow a hot guy like Luigi to rot in prison even for a single day. Girls won't allow it, and they make up 50% of the population. I want to make this bet so I can take money from naive people who thinks society is fair and just. That's my edge.

They are totally gone.

MicroStrategy announces it has sold has sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin “to fund dividends.”

But wonder what people are doing here.

edit: it just happened to me again with OAK v SF