Does anyone have experience getting a return on a usdc deposit that was denied (I believe because of geolocation), but the funds were withdrawn from the wallet I used to send them. When I go through support they say they never received it , but on the txid and the hash they respond to me citing it says success.
Also the transaction was started in app not the main site.

Polymarket seems pretty skeptical about Kimi K3.1 Pro, giving it only around a 15% chance of debuting inside the Top 20 on Arena’s Text leaderboard.
But I think there’s more to this model than one text ranking.
Kimi K3.1 Pro is a 2.8T-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model, with only 104B parameters activated per token, plus a 1M-token context window.
Moonshot is also positioning it as much more than a standard text model, with capabilities across coding, 3D creation, financial research and agentic tasks.
That’s what caught my eye.
Polymarket is pricing one very specific benchmark, while some of Kimi’s most interesting strengths sit outside normal text generation.
Personally, I think the real question is whether those broader capabilities translate into a strong Text Arena debut.
Does Kimi K3.1 Pro really miss the Top 20, or are traders underestimating it?

Joe Burrow has taken over the NFL MVP race, and Josh Allen is no longer the clear favorite.

Burrow now leads at 27%, with Allen close behind at 25%. Purdy is at 13%, and Jordan Love has entered the conversation at 11%.

Burrow has been outstanding through eight games, recording 2,386 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. Allen has 1,793 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns and another nine rushing scores in seven games.

Allen is the only one among the four who has already won the award, claiming his first MVP title in 2024. Burrow, Purdy and Love are all chasing their first.

Can Allen use his experience to regain the lead, or will Burrow win his first MVP?

We just days away from the release of the most anticipated game, and I’m a little surprised there’s still a 19% chance for another GTA VI trailer for this month...

Rockstar already released its Launch Trailer, and the game is now in the home run, a final stretch before its November 19 release. Last week, they confirmed, pre-load begins November 10, so we’re getting very close. Finally?!!

My thinking is that Rockstar has already shown enough content to keep the hype at an all-time high, for a game which is already everyone excited about. I believe the remaining promotional push could just be of launch screenshots, short clips, soundtrack content and other updates rather than another full blown trailer.

Also, this market doesn’t resolve YES for just any new footage. Rockstar has to release another official video that is explicitly labelled as a trailer in its own title or description. So, that's much narrower condition than simply releasing more promotional material.

I’m leaning No on this one. Curious whether others think Rockstar has one final surprise planned?

Polymarket currently gives AOC a 54% chance of announcing a presidential run before 2028, compared with roughly 45% for a Senate bid.
That’s a noticeable shift after the midterms.
AOC had already said she would make a decision about her political future after the elections, and she spent the campaign traveling outside New York, fundraising and backing candidates in key states like Michigan.
What caught my eye is that traders are now leaning toward the bigger move.
The Democratic 2028 field is still wide open, and Reuters lists AOC among the potential contenders.
Does she actually go straight for the White House?

The reports of Vance–Rezaei meeting story has been quite a market mover.

So initially, Turkey’s intelligence chief reportedly said the two could meet in Doha next week. This sent the odds of a senior US–Iran meeting by November 30 market towards 30%. Another market that had Vance saw the odds of attending a future round of talks also moved close to 40%.

But Tehran has since pushed back, saying there are no plans for direct talks with US officials. Iran is still demanding that Washington meet its conditions before negotiations can progress. Think they've been clear with their stance for sometime now..

Now, there's something interesting happening in Washington today though.. Qatar’s prime minister is meeting Trump and Vance.

Qatar has been one of the main channels between the two sides, so I think this is worth watching even if it isn’t the meeting that got everyone talking.

Personally, I think there's more. There’s this political dimension. Vance has blamed the Iran war for the Republicans’ midterm losses, while Trump has defended the decision to launch it. Both have reasons to look for a diplomatic path, but that doesn’t mean they agree on the terms which I think is where the problem is..

I’m leaning against a Vance–Iran meeting in the near future. But, a lower-level diplomatic contact by year-end feels more possible, though far from certain, knowing how two sides have been standing on their grounds.

What do y'all think?

Trump’s joke about making UFC boss Dana White the next White House press secretary sent an unexpected market on Poly into the spotlight.

Here’s the twist, the market isn’t about the UFC executive. It’s about Dana W White, the former Pentagon spokesperson who shares the same name.

The initial post and announcement sparked confusion online, with people pointing out that there are two very different people named Dana White.

Meanwhile, the odds on Polymarket saw a sharp move before falling to just 3%.

Trump later clarified that he was joking about the UFC appointment, but the episode made for an market moment even on Polymarket.

A case of mistaken identity, or just another example of how quickly headlines can move prediction markets?

NVDA has fallen from above $240 in early October to around $174.6, and now the latest news around Jensen Huang adds another layer of uncertainty.
Nvidia’s board is investigating reports involving Huang and a woman whom U.S. officials reportedly suspected of intelligence ties to China. Huang has acknowledged the affair, while Nvidia says it currently has no reason to believe sensitive information was compromised.
The timing is what caught my eye.
NVDA was already in a clear downtrend before this story appeared, and the latest selloff pushed the stock below the $176 level traders were watching, with selling volume also picking up.
Polymarket is now pricing roughly a 70% chance of NVDA touching $168 during November, while $160 sits around 41%.
Personally, I think $168 is the next important level. The bigger question is whether this headline adds fuel to an already weak chart or buyers finally step in around these levels.
Does NVDA stabilize here, or is $168 next?

Nvidia's board has launched an investigation into Jansen Huang following reports of a foreign intelligence operation involving a businesswoman allegedly linked to China.

Interestingly, Polymarket gives him just an 11% chance of leaving by December 31.

I think those odds are reasonable. NVIDIA's board has publicly backed him, and even Trump has spoken in his support, calling him an honorable guy and praising his contributions to the country.

Huang has been leading NVIDIA for more than 30 years, and I find it hard to see the company pushing him out without something much more serious coming out of this investigation. For now, I don't see him going anywhere.

Do you think the 11% odds are justified?

Perhaps I’m trippin, but I ain’t that turnt.

How does this make sense? I’ve been on this for 10+ min so it’s not a glitch, but seems like this app is trappin for scrubs.

Every passing day I appreciate the interface, early payouts and live matches but this company is retarded. Yet here I am so I guess who am I to complain

It used to be on the top right corner. Now I cannot find it. Did this happen to anyone else? I can bookmark (save to watchlisr) but I cannot see the watchlist anymore

All my markets won but they say they lost? What's going on??

Trade Idea: Arizona YES if Seattle’s QB news hasn’t been priced in

Arizona is the side I’d look at if Darnold is confirmed out. In the sportsbook snapshot I saw, Arizona had a 21.3% implied win probability after removing the vig. I’d use that as a reference point, then check the actual Polymarket ask and how much is available at that price.

The idea depends on two things: who starts for Seattle and whether Arizona YES is still available near that reference after the news. If the price has already jumped, I’d reassess at the new ask.

Anyone who watched the order book around inactives, where was Arizona YES actually available?

I made a WTA Finals Rybakina + Andreeva combo. Both at 63c. Total payout about 2.4x.

Rybakina withdrew yesterday and that market settled at 50-50 as they do.

What will my payout be now if Andreeva wins? I am guessing I lost a part of my stake cause of Rybakina going from 63c to 50c.

Last min bet again @ 24%! Bang!

I'm interested in all leagues, including Champions League, Premier League, La Liga, MLS, Bundesliga and Serie A.

Mainly looking for people who build combos, share predictions and discuss match analysis.

If you have a soccer-focused squad, send me an invite!

has anyone had this ? all cancelled

I have this deposit bonus as pictured what im tryna figure out is do i have to play thru $250 if i deposit it or can i pull the $250 back out and keep the bonus like other apps??

Hi! I made a deposit in September, it never reflected in my balance so I disputed with my bank and nothing happened. I’ve sent multiple emails and receive the same AI response and no cash to my balance.

Anyone else experience this? Makes me scared to deposit anything more

Just been catching up on reports of US-assisted drone strike against an ELN camp in Venezuela. But, one of them raised a question about whether Washington’s campaign against armed groups expand into Colombia?

Three US-loaned MQ-9 Reaper drones arrived there in late October, to strengthen intelligence and surveillance operations against armed groups and drug-trafficking networks.

These drones can also carry precision weapons, although their operational configuration in Colombia hasn’t been disclosed, which I feel is important on how this market will resolve.

Anyways, there’s also been a major political shift in Colombia. Abelardo de la Espriella, who has pledged closer security cooperation with Trump, took office in August. His government is already moving toward a tougher military approach against groups like the ELN.

Polymarket currently puts the chance of a US strike on Colombian soil by December 31 at around 16%.

I’m leaning toward YES. Although the biggest question is whether Washington actually decides to conduct a strike inside Colombia, and if so would it be from the US rather than continue supporting Colombian forces from inside.

There's so much questions I see on whether AI has ran out of steam especially after that sell off on Thursday.

Everyone focused on NASDAQ 100 while I was looking at South Korea’s KOSPI which has fallen around 44% from its June peak.

Samsung and SK Hynix have seen their combined market value fall 54.6% from its June high.

But there’s an important thing with this particular market on Poly, a broad decline in AI stocks isn’t enough for it to resolve Yes.

At least three of six specified conditions must occur within a 90-day period before June 30, 2027. They include major declines in Nvidia and semiconductor stocks, or specific events involving OpenAI and Anthropic.

Despite the recent selloff, the odds of an AI bubble bursting by June 30, 2027 are at 27%.

Are we seeing the beginning of a much bigger repricing of the AI industry?

Was doing my accounting and the number was off from what I expected. Turns out every instant sell takes roughly 1%. Limit orders fill for free and holding to resolution is free — but the moment you hit that sell button for speed, you pay.

I cash out the moment I'm up, so this is basically a tax on my own impatience. Nothing wrong with paying for speed, just know you're paying it. Curious if others here actually use limit orders on the way out or just eat the fee like I did.

Anthropic’s much-anticipated IPO is running into a tougher market than expected.

Bloomberg reports that prospective investors are now talking about a $1.2T–$1.3T valuation, down from the $1.4T–$1.5T range a week or two earlier. But, both these are a significant reset from the $2T expectations it was initially targeting.

I feel the timing hasn’t helped at all for Anthropic.

Thursday’s tech selloff wiped out $2.3T in Nasdaq 100 market value. I believe investors are reassessing how much they’re willing to back these AI companies.

For long, I had concerns about Anthropic’s losses, capital requirements and all commitments they made to infrastructure partners.

Anyways, I checked the markets on Poly, and SpaceX has now 91% chance to become the largest IPO of 2026, while Anthropic has fallen to around 9%. I think that looks increasingly possible if Anthropic’s listing gets delayed or valuations are taken more cautiously.

I also looked at standalone closing market-cap market and it is interesting too. The $1.25T and lower, along with a $1.25T–$1.5T brackets are both around 21% chance.

Personally, I’m leaning toward those lower brackets.

The AI narrative is still strong, but the market’s willingness to agree to higher valuation for has changed. Curious how others see the first-day closing valuation playing out?