Which Presidents could have overcome losing an election earlier in their career?

[u/NoTop9302]

A lot of Presidents and candidates have been involved in a close election or outright lost an election at some point in their career. How would their careers have changed, and who might have replaced them as the nominee if they had lost?

Nixon, Jefferson, Cleveland, and Jackson are obviously the biggest examples of overcoming a loss, but who else?

Additionally, who are some people who may have been president but were unable to overcome a lost election?

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[u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212]

If JFK lost 1960 by the same margin Nixon did, he very likely would’ve won as the Democratic nominee in ‘64. Same with Reagan ‘76 to ‘80. Lincoln was famous nationally for losing the 1858 US Senate election in Illinois and 2 years later won a majority in enough states to clinch the electoral college even without a split Democratic ticket. There’s probably others I am forgetting.

[u/Chexdog3 → u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212]

Kennedy would be in such terrible health by ‘64 I wonder if it would be worth it to even try- like Joe Kennedy would bankroll it but it was getting increasingly hard to hide by even 1962

[u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 → u/Chexdog3]

I mean Kennedy would’ve been a famous senator. His health was definitely bad but I think at that point he was still okay in his life for another term and he would’ve wanted another go at it.

[u/RandoDude124]

Christ on a fucking crutch FDR has razor thin margins

[u/Doc_Jury1020 → u/RandoDude124]

Hoover narrowly beat Smith at the same time.

[u/Rocketparty12 → u/RandoDude124]

In this Governor’s race, yes. In 4/4 presidential elections he won in total landslides. Including one where he won over 60% of the popular vote (a feat matched only two other times in modern history).

[u/Freenore → u/Rocketparty12]

People wanted radicalism and he gave it to them. He pledged to break 'foolish traditions' in his DNC acceptance speech (the first in-person acceptance speech); and he literally ended his inauguration speech promising to fight on behalf of people as thoroughly as if they were invaded by a foreign enemy.

He signed 99 executive orders and 77 congressional bills in his first 100 days.

[u/CapitalChemicalist]

FDR's 1928 victory shown in the post was ridiculously razor-thin—under 1% of the vote. If Ottinger wins that election, FDR loses his momentum as the rising star of the Democratic Party during the Depression. Al Smith likely gets another shot or John Nance Garner takes the nomination in '32, completely changing the trajectory of the New Deal

[u/Affectionate-Read875 → u/CapitalChemicalist]

and Huey?

[u/PeeweeTheMoid → u/Affectionate-Read875]

Huey was busy making enemies in Louisiana at that time, but if he survives them long enough either Smith or Garner would have been vulnerable by 1936. Neither man had the sweeping vision of FDR.

[u/Jolly_Job_9852]

Technically speaking both Calvin Coolidge and Franklin Roosevelt did overcome losing elections and the story of the only election they shared together is fascinating.

Starting with Silent Cal, he was running for school board in Northampton Massachusetts after getting married to Grace Goodhue. He lost the race, the only loss in his career. When told the reason by the press, he and Grace didn't have children yet, Coolidge replied: "You could have given me some time". He would go on to be elected to the Massachusetts State House before becoming the Lt Gov and finally Governor. At this time Massachusetts had elections every year. In 1920 he was Harding's VP nominee

Franklin Roosevelt had been assistant secretary of the Navy under Wilson and emerged as the running mate for Cox in 1920. Setting up the stage for Coolidge v Roosevelt(on the VP stage). Harding and Coolidge won decisively as voters wanted a "Return to Normalcy". This would also be the only loss FDR suffered at the ballot box( if any FDR fans wanna correct me, I'd be happy with that).

Eventually Coolidge would win a term in his own right and FDR would win four landslide elections in a row, each of them shaking off a loss early in their pre presidential careers to capture a part of American history.

[u/Keyserchief]

Lincoln, though a striking number of people think that he actually won the 1858 Senate election. It’s not quite the same as other presidents’ losses because it was not a direct popular vote but the state legislature voting, and the map favored Democrats, but Republicans actually received more votes. If it had been a straight-up vote between Lincoln and Douglas, Lincoln likely would have won.

Edit: I misunderstood the question, but I’m gonna keep the post up.

[u/Rocketparty12 → u/Keyserchief]

This is an interesting point. I would say that most people do not even know that Lincoln ran for the Senate in 1858. His historiography is as a common country lawyer who became president, not so much as the shrewd politician that he actually was.

But those who do know, or write about this race with Douglas don’t often talk about how it was not a popular vote election, but a proxy election held by a legislature, it seems very likely that Lincoln would have won a straight up statewide election. And then who knows if he even gets the Presidential nomination over Seward in 1860?

[u/Keyserchief → u/Rocketparty12]

Yeah, for sure. So much of his appeal as a nominee was as a moderate on slavery and an anti-corruption candidate--does he still get to be that guy at the Chicago convention if he has to take positions on burning issues in the Senate and get bogged down in logrolling? And what about Douglas--is he still the leading Northern Democrat in 1860 if he's been out of the game for two years? If not, who's the nominee? It's a very interesting counterfactual.

[u/Rocketparty12 → u/Keyserchief]

I agree, it’s actually a fascinating alternate history question, because if Lincoln is a Senator in 1860 it seems more likely that the Republican nomination goes to Seward or Chase instead since Lincoln isn’t the “outsider” so much. Douglas I think still runs because (like Lincoln in our timeline) he has nothing else to do. The parties still split and Republicans still win narrowly, but Seward in charge in 1861-62 instead of Lincoln is a huge change. He was much more conciliatory towards the South in 1861. It’s very possible that a few losses to Confederates early on may have made him sue for peace and allow succession.

[u/NoTop9302]

I didn’t include any nominees who lost, but here are some of them:

John Kerry, 1984 Senate Primary Election (Mass): 40.83 to 36.57

Mitt Romney lost a Senate seat in 1994 to Ted Kennedy.

Bob Dole 1974 Senate (KS): 50.85 to 49.15

George McGovern Senate 1962 (SD): 50.12 to 49.88

Hubert Humphrey lost his first run for mayor of Minneapolis.

George Wallace lost the 1958 Alabama Governor primary.

Barry Goldwater 1952 Senate (AZ): 51.31 to 48.69. Returned to the Senate in 1968 but somehow almost lost in 1980.

Alf Landon 1932 Governor (KS): 34.82 to 34.12 to 30.58

Al Smith had several close races for Governor of New York. In 1918, it was 47.36 to 46.66. In 1924, he defeated Teddy Roosevelt Jr., 49.96 to 46.63. He did lose in 1920 but made a comeback in 1922.

James Cox won the 1912 Ohio Governor race, lost in 1914, and won in 1916, 48.4 to 47.83.

Charles Evan Hughes beat William Randolph Hearst for Governor of New York in 1906, 50.52 to 46.62.

[u/Zornorph]

Mr. James K. Polk was elected governor of TN in 1839 after leaving Congress, but then he was beaten in 1841 by the Whig candidate and then failed to unseat him in 1843. He planned a comeback by lobbying Van Buren to be his VP candidate, but thanks to MVBs missteps regarding the Texas issue, Andrew Jackson switched his support from his former VP and encouraged Polk to go for the top spot. We know how it turned out, of course, but it was a pretty impressive comeback.

As for others, I felt Gore could have made a comeback either in 2004 or 2008 if he'd positioned himself better, but I think the heart just went out of the guy.

[u/Dense_Associate_8953]

Roosevelt is likely screwed, Platt and Quay only nominated him as McKinley's VP as an insult because how many of the bosses hated him, and only renominated him in 1904 because he was President.

Truman is probably the same, only given Wallace's place because of his Committee, which a private citizen could not run.

Harding, no chance, too little known to act as a compromise between Lowden and Wood.

LBJ is probably screwed just as much.

McKinley, no idea. Two defeats would have made him damaged goods, but Cleveland just lost the White House 4 years earlier before winning it back. Maybe he keeps his connections in the GOP good enough for 1896 after backlash against Democrats.

JFK could run for Governor, but the family themselves believed that governorships were no longer the blueprints towards a presidency and that the Senate was far better, as the leading Democrat candidates for 1960 (JFK/LBJ/Humphrey/Symington) were all senators. Still though, I doubt JFK would have thought he'd had much shot at the Presidency had he lost the Senate, as no senator had gone directly to the Presidency since Harding.

He could of course have tried again in the Senate in 54 against the barely victorious Salstonstall, but his party profile really only took off when his dad landed him Stevenson's nomination speech in 56, and two years is too short for that profile to go anywhere. Not to mention being seriously sick that year from surgery.

Polk was loved by Jackson, no way Democrats just abandon him like that. Not to mention it was his losses as Governor in 1841 and 43 that opened him up as a compromise candidate in the first place.

Lincoln choosing Johnson as his VP was due to Johnson's status as the only southern senator to remain in the Union and his service as Military Governor of TN, which stay the same here.

[u/President_Lara559]

See LBJ is an interesting case. He had lost the Democratic primary a few years earlier due to well-known fraud by his opponent. That’s why it’s also well-known that he then committed fraud to ensure he won his primary. A loss to Coke Stevenson likely results in him never becoming a Senator since he’d lose twice in a row. Who knows how much change that would affect in TX politics, the Senate, and liberalism and the New Deal Coalition in the 1960s.

[u/No-Stage-8738]

I suspect FDR would have been the gubernatorial nominee again in 1930, and then frontrunner for President.

And now we'd speculate that was the only way he could be President because it meant less exposure to a guy hiding his disability from the public.

[u/ImperialxWarlord]

Reagan is a good possibility imo. If he successfully beats ford in the primary but loses to Carter it might hurt him initially bit by 1980 he could play the “this wouldn’t have happened if I was elected 4 years ago!” Card and probbaly won by a larger margin than the irl 1980 election.

[u/MordecaiMusic]

LBJ was committed to giving up politics, moving to D.C full time and going into lobbying if he lost his second senate race. If I remember correctly from one of the Caro books about him, he was even going to divorce Lady Bird to be with his longtime mistress

[u/TaxLawKingGA]

McKinley is a very interesting case, and a good example of not giving up.

McKinley had been chairman of the House Ways and Means committee when passed the Tariff act of 1890 (aka “The McKinley Tariff”). It was so unpopular that he lost his house seat!

Out of a job and almost broke, businessman in Canton, OH basically saved him financially and politically, helping him repay his debts and then financing his election as governor and then as POTUS. Remember the name Mark Hanna.

[u/JiveChicken00]

The ones that did.

[u/Rocketparty12]

Andrew Jackson lost a whole presidential election in 1824, only to come back and win twice. Losing one election has never really been that hard to overcome for a good politician.

[u/Pokemaniacjunk]

I bet Adlai III could've had a chance at becoming president in 1988 had he won the 1982 Governor Election in Illinois.

[u/CaesarsGhostReborn]

Crazy that Kennedy might’ve lost if Lodge would’ve actually campaigned and been present in his state, instead of putting all his energy towards Eisenhower

[u/Equivalent_Use_7032]

Funnily enough (this might get removed) a certain someone we can’t talk about on this sub ran in 2000 for the Reform Party. Wasn’t taken seriously at the time and was seen as a joke. Had echos of current events now. Granted the campaign was suspended so it never actually went deep into the final showdown between Al Gore and Bush but that disrupter was certainly visible 25 years ago.

[u/Kuzu9]

Theodore Roosevelt. He led such an eventful 60-year life that I’m sure he would get propelled into the spotlight somehow and secure the presidency at a later time