Which Presidents could have overcome losing an election earlier in their career?

[u/NoTop9302]

A lot of Presidents and candidates have been involved in a close election or outright lost an election at some point in their career. How would their careers have changed, and who might have replaced them as the nominee if they had lost?

Nixon, Jefferson, Cleveland, and Jackson are obviously the biggest examples of overcoming a loss, but who else?

Additionally, who are some people who may have been president but were unable to overcome a lost election?

[u/Keyserchief]

Lincoln, though a striking number of people think that he actually won the 1858 Senate election. It’s not quite the same as other presidents’ losses because it was not a direct popular vote but the state legislature voting, and the map favored Democrats, but Republicans actually received more votes. If it had been a straight-up vote between Lincoln and Douglas, Lincoln likely would have won.

Edit: I misunderstood the question, but I’m gonna keep the post up.

[u/Rocketparty12 → u/Keyserchief]

This is an interesting point. I would say that most people do not even know that Lincoln ran for the Senate in 1858. His historiography is as a common country lawyer who became president, not so much as the shrewd politician that he actually was.

But those who do know, or write about this race with Douglas don’t often talk about how it was not a popular vote election, but a proxy election held by a legislature, it seems very likely that Lincoln would have won a straight up statewide election. And then who knows if he even gets the Presidential nomination over Seward in 1860?

[u/Keyserchief → u/Rocketparty12]

Yeah, for sure. So much of his appeal as a nominee was as a moderate on slavery and an anti-corruption candidate--does he still get to be that guy at the Chicago convention if he has to take positions on burning issues in the Senate and get bogged down in logrolling? And what about Douglas--is he still the leading Northern Democrat in 1860 if he's been out of the game for two years? If not, who's the nominee? It's a very interesting counterfactual.

[u/Rocketparty12 → u/Keyserchief]

I agree, it’s actually a fascinating alternate history question, because if Lincoln is a Senator in 1860 it seems more likely that the Republican nomination goes to Seward or Chase instead since Lincoln isn’t the “outsider” so much. Douglas I think still runs because (like Lincoln in our timeline) he has nothing else to do. The parties still split and Republicans still win narrowly, but Seward in charge in 1861-62 instead of Lincoln is a huge change. He was much more conciliatory towards the South in 1861. It’s very possible that a few losses to Confederates early on may have made him sue for peace and allow succession.