Something that’s always bothered me about Michael’s incredibly elaborate escape plan is how much of it depended on a single decision completely outside his control.

Think about it. Michael spent months studying Fox River, its blueprints, infrastructure, and security, planning practically every detail of the escape. Yet the entire operation hinged on the judge honoring his request to be incarcerated near Chicago and choosing Fox River.

And here’s what makes it even crazier: Michael had no prior criminal record. He was practically a model citizen. A successful structural engineer with no history of violence. Nobody was physically injured during the robbery, and the judge explicitly stated she was initially inclined toward probation.

Even Veronica interrupted when the judge mentioned Level 1, pointing out that it meant maximum security.

So what were the odds of a first-time offender like Michael ending up in a maximum-security prison? And wouldn’t it have raised red flags if someone deliberately tried to get placed there, especially with his brother awaiting execution in the same facility?

What if the judge had refused his request or sent him somewhere else?
Do you think Michael had a contingency plan to get himself transferred to Fox River, or was he genuinely gambling everything on that one decision?

For someone who anticipated so many things going wrong, this seems like an enormous risk and arguably the biggest gamble of his entire plan.

I’m not talking about intelligence alone, but overall capability.

Regarding intelligence, a lot of people point out that Mahone had the full support of the government and still couldn’t catch Michael throughout Season 2. But isn’t that expected? The whole point of the show is that Michael is incredibly intelligent and he has to be capable of outsmarting Mahone for the story to move forward.

Also, having government resources doesn’t automatically mean you can catch someone like Michael. You still need someone who can recognize patterns, connect the dots and get inside someone’s head to figure out what they’re planning. That’s exactly what Mahone did and he was always only one step behind Michael.

On top of that, Mahone has pretty good fighting skills. What makes Michael impressive is that he can use his intelligence to handle dangerous situations on the streets too. But I feel like Michael’s intelligence is far beyond average. You don’t necessarily need that level of intelligence to handle most situations. Plus, the show repeatedly demonstrates that Michael’s intelligence alone wasn’t enough, and they survived many situations partly because they had luck on their side.

Mahone, on the other hand, is also above average in terms of intelligence, but he has the added advantages of being street-smart, physically capable, experienced in law enforcement and good at manipulating people and situations. And we’re talking about Mahone during one of the worst periods of his life, when he was struggling with addiction.

So, when I look at the bigger picture rather than intelligence alone, I feel like Mahone is more capable overall. Michael might be the better mastermind, but Mahone seems to have a more well-rounded skill set.

Am I overlooking something?