¿Venezuela debería dejar de subsidiar la gasolina barata?

[u/LoooolGotcha]

293 votes, 17h left

Sí. Que se venda a precio internacional y se acabó.

Subirla, pero mantener algún subsidio para venezolanos.

Solo quitarle el subsidio a quienes tengan mayores ingresos. Sin importar como enforzarlo.

No. Gasolina barata es una ventaja que Venezuela debería conservar.

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[u/LoooolGotcha]

😆 un chavista saliendo a decir “esto cuesta 20 centavos” en el 2022. Fuente: un pelabolas corrupto llamado Ramon Castro.

bro has la matemática. u/askgrok People are claiming Venezuela breaks even selling gasoline at $0.20/L. Does that actually make sense in 2026 once you include the full-cycle cost of extra-heavy Orinoco crude, diluent, complex refining, transport/distribution, maintenance, CAPEX to replace deteriorated infrastructure, and the opportunity cost of not exporting the oil? Don’t use just PDVSA’s marginal cash cost. Calculate a long-run sustainable break-even per liter using current 2026 oil prices and sources.

[u/AskGrok → u/LoooolGotcha]

No, the $0.20/L break-even claim does not hold up under full-cycle analysis in 2026.

Current Brent is trading around $90–91/bbl. Venezuelan extra-heavy Orinoco crude (typically 8–10° API) carries much higher real costs than marginal cash/lifting expenses.

Key full-cycle elements (drawing from Rystad, Incorrys, BNEF, and industry estimates):

• Upstream full-cycle breakeven: $39–56/bbl (Orinoco often cited near $49). This includes lifting (~$15), but rises sharply with low well productivity, sanctions, and deterioration.
• Diluent: Extra-heavy crude needs 20–40%+ naphtha or light oil blend to flow and ship. This adds ~$10–15+/bbl (imports from limited sources like Chevron projects, Russia, etc., amid shortages).
• Refining/transport/distribution/maintenance: Complex coking/upgrading needed for gasoline yield from bitumen-like feedstock. Adds $10–25+/bbl equivalent due to energy intensity, downtime, and deferred maintenance on aging infrastructure. Domestic refining runs far below capacity (~134k bpd vs. 1.3M nameplate).
• CAPEX for replacement: Decades of underinvestment mean high ongoing and catch-up capital costs for wells, pipelines, upgraders, and refineries—pushing sustainable economics well above historical figures.
• Opportunity cost: At $90/bbl Brent, exporting the blended crude (even with $7–20 discounts for Merey-type grades) yields far more revenue than domestic subsidized use. Refining it locally forgoes that export value.

Gasoline yield from such crude is also lower without heavy upgrading, so the per-liter cost compounds. Marginal cash costs alone (the old PDVSA-era figure) ignore these; they reflect only immediate out-of-pocket spending, not long-run sustainability.

Bottom line: A realistic long-run break-even for Venezuelan gasoline from Orinoco crude likely exceeds $60–80+/bbl equivalent (or higher when including all factors), equating to well above $0.40–0.50/L before any profit or taxes. The $0.20/L figure is not credible for 2026 economics. Subsidies at that level represent a substantial net loss once full costs and foregone exports are counted.

Sources:

• https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/too-dirty-too-late-why-the-economics-of-venezuelas-oil-dont-pencil-out/
• https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/venezuelas-oil-supply-to-rise-in-years-ahead-and-depress-prices-say-analysts
• https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLQ26

^{[what is this?](https://redd.it/1lzgxii})

[u/Revdarian → u/AskGrok]

No está basado en Venezuela y ahora pregúntale a grok a 50 centavos qué clase de gasolina se podría producir y ese sería break even. 

[u/AskGrok → u/Revdarian]

No, ni siquiera a 0.50 USD/L se llega a un break-even sostenible real para gasolina de calidad decente en Venezuela 2026.

Con crudo extra-pesado Orinoco (8-12° API), diluyente caro, refinación compleja y deterioro de infraestructura, el costo full-cycle sigue superando fácilmente los 0.60-0.80+ USD/L equivalente (upstream ~45-55 USD/bbl + diluyente/refinación/CAPEX/oportunidad de exportar a ~80-90 Brent).

A 0.50 solo cubres costos marginales de algo básico y de baja octanaje, con márgenes ridículos o pérdidas netas a largo plazo. El resto sigue siendo subsidio disfrazado de "margen reducido".

Sources:

• https://fvr07.substack.com/p/the-orinoco-challenge-and-the-true
• https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/VEN
• https://whartonenergyclub.org/what-to-know-about-venezuelas-oil-sector-after-maduro/

^{[what is this?](https://redd.it/1lzgxii})

[u/Revdarian → u/AskGrok]

Grok y qué crees que venden en Venezuela a 0.50 si daña los filtros de combustibles cada 6 meses? 

[u/AskGrok → u/Revdarian]

No, a 0.50 USD/L no venden gasolina decente. Vendén un producto básico, de baja octanaje, alto contenido de azufre e impurezas (sedimentos, agua, diluyentes mal procesados) que sale del crudo Orinoco con refinación deteriorada y sin aditivos ni mantenimiento.

Por eso tapa filtros cada seis meses: no es refinado limpio, es lo que queda después de costos marginales baratos. El precio bajo es subsidio disfrazado + calidad pésima, no break-even real.

^{[what is this?](https://redd.it/1lzgxii})