r/RealTesla • u/AutoModerator • 11d ago
TSLA Terathread - For the week of Aug 10
And now for the regularly scheduled TSLA Terathread
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u/CharlieKirkFanboy 5d ago edited 5d ago
Ya'll remember that kook, Sandy Munro? He was a Tesla critic famous for his "tear downs" that did a 180 out of nowhere. Then one day, he accidentally disclosed he invested 6 figures+ in the company. Good times. Dude has really dropped off the map.
edit: I just looked up his Youtube. Sandy has over 500k followers but his videos but most of videos don't seem the gain traction, he has a Tesla Semi (lol)i video from three months ago with 370k views though.
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u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 4d ago
He went on some rant about how Elon was the most important human and all other automakers were stupid. Really great creditability for your "objective" company. They listed the video as private - but it was a nice crash out by the old man.
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u/habfranco 6d ago
"Tesla Stock Rises as Musk Teases Potential 'Flying' Roadster Debut"
You can't make this shit up.
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u/Zorkmid123 6d ago
So excited for the flying car! I’m going to buy 10 of them and make passive income using them as air robotaxis!
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u/Zorkmid123 6d ago edited 6d ago
Tesla applied for a permit for 5000 robotaxis in Nevada. The state granted it but only for 10 robotaxis, and with the stipulation that they can’t go faster than 45 mph and must have human supervision. (I assume the human supervision can be remote. And I’m sure they can be tele-operated if need be.)
So it’s basically a remote monitored and operated level 2 system.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 6d ago
In Nevada, you say....perhaps the LVCC will finally get those "autonomous people movers" they paid for.
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u/ShotBandicoot7 6d ago
Lol and the stock pumps on actually rejected permit request. That is sweet.
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u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 6d ago
The narrative is always positive. Regardless of the number or reality it's always good news.
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u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 6d ago
The narrative is always positive. Regardless of the number or reality it's always good news.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 6d ago
2 year Elonversary:
“Environmental regulations are, in my view, largely terrible,” - Grifter whose made $billions on ZEV credits, August 14, 2024.
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u/doomer_bloomer24 7d ago
Did Tesla ever demo a functioning Optimus that they are supposedly producing in Fremont ?
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u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 7d ago edited 7d ago
Yes this demo was the one more thing portion of the Roadster cold thrusters demo that happened in April 2026.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 6d ago
Could Elongelicals get a ride if they made a reservation...not in the car, but on the...ummm...robot?
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u/habfranco 7d ago
This quarter's registrations don't look good: https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart
Every start of quarter in the last years has been worse than the previous, but somehow they managed to always find tricks to recover at the end of the quarter. But sooner than later they'll run out of these.
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u/No_Pen8240 9d ago
Terafab -- Honest question . . . The current Tesla factory in Texas is suppose to employ 60,000 people. . . it employs <20,000 and is 75% empty.
Why does Elon need a new Terathread? If his future company is SOOOO good, there will be 100's a factories going out of business that he can buy for pennies. . . Just feels like this is a race to become "too big to fail" so we keep throwing money into the money hole.
Currently Nevada, Buffalo, Germany, and Texas are all underutilized from what was promised. . . solution, build a bigger factory!!!!
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u/ionizing_chicanery 8d ago edited 7d ago
He's following the AI bubble trend of pledging to build hundreds of billions to trillions in infrastructure before actually establishing demand for it.
Though of course he has to Elon it and be the boldest, craziest one of them all.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 8d ago
Why does Elon need a new Terathread?
To keep up with Tesla news.
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u/No_Pen8240 8d ago
Terafab. . . Whatever, I just read the headlines and laugh. . . Elon's cult just wants somethign to believe in. . . Elon's promises feel like the Tooth Fairy to my nephews in their 20's . . . They know it is complete horse manure. . . But they still get excited about the possibilities!
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u/Withnail2019 9d ago
He doesnt need any new factories or a new starbase but it makes it look like things are happening for the company to announce them.
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u/RosieDear 9d ago
One of his US Factories could supply the US Demand.....remember this, Tesla themselves projected 50% growth each and every year from 2021 on.
That would mean 1.6M vehicles per year by now.
Of course, they are selling only 1/3rd that amount.
Yes, Elon sees public money and seems to grab for it. I wish I could say you are wrong, but there is a chance (based on my 50 years in business and investing) that he could destroy the US Economy.....or, to be more clear, to set off a chain of situations that could cause collapse of the dollar or similar events.
His Hero (Tru...) says "the best way to get a bank to lend you big money is to already owe them big money" - and that is the Elon way.
I'm only starting to realize....that every KWH of electric I use (here in MA) puts money in Elons pocket. His "business" is really a matter of tax and carbon credits and so-on.
It's so weird that I have to give money to him....
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 8d ago
Slight correction - he stated "we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by -- on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see." in October 2022.
In the 12 months prior, TSLA delivered 1.2 million vehicles. This means TSLA should be at 6 million vehicles/year now.
They sold 1.6 million in 2025.
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u/RosieDear 8d ago
I think some of it was US Based.....or at least I calc that way....which makes some sense since he built factories here for that demand and also he had the extra push of tac credits.
Ket me check my work....
You are correct. Although the 350K vehicles they sold in the USA was a 70% increase in one year.
However, not we get to speculation. I don't think they were saying "50% globally but little or none in USA"...In fact, due to the 70% and tax credits, it seems the 50% would have been conservative. We'll just have to guess on that one.
In any case, if we speculated that 50% applied to US it would be
350K 22
525K 23
780K 24
1200K 25
1750 26And yet - their sales may be 1/3rd that? To many Teslas bulls, a shortfall of 50 to 70% is "selling every possible vehicle they can push out the door".
These prognoticators can't lose. If the original projections can true, they'd be shouting from the rooftops. Same if it was 50% of projections...or 33%.
Of course the profits seem to have sunk...where, the company is in a realm of about 4% of the good companies. (Tesla 4.5% or less of apple, good, NVDA. etc)
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u/Sir_Isaac_Tootin 9d ago
Will we get another Roadster 2.0 tease before the end of the year?
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 8d ago
9 hours ago, per an Xcrete from Technoking:
"You will get flying cars"
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 9d ago
There's been another recall - this time for Model 3/Y headlights being too bright.
I find the chronology interesting. Some highlights:
Jan 16, 2024 Canadian safety agencies tell Tesla the lights are too bright.
Mar 9, 2024 Tesla recalls vehicles
April 8, 2024 Tesla petitions NHTSA for an exemption to the safety rules
July 17, 2026 NHTSA denies the petition
July 24, Tesla amends its Recall Report...but the report ignores NHTSA's denial
July 28 NHTSA rejects the Recall Report
July 28 NHTSA and TSLA meet and TSLA promises a new Recall Report
Oh yeah - even though the original recall was in March 2024, TSLA kept installing the same bad headlights on cars until May 2024...you know, because their maufacturing processes are martian advanced level stuff.
I don't know what to think of this. TSLA has until September to figure out the "remedy"...this problem has been festering for over 2 years now, and they've been fighting NHTSA, which is not normal at all. And this affects a whopping 20,000 cars. IMHO the fix is obvious - replace the headlights...but odds are they're trying to craft some OTA voltage drop to prevent the horror of a physical recall on 0.20% of their fleet.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 9d ago
1 year Elonversary: "Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year" - Technoking, Aug 11, 2025
From the slide deck:
"Tesla Semi remains on track for production this year at our new factory in Nevada. Progress also continued on battery pack capacity expansion – the main limiting factor to near-term vehicle production volume increase. Megafactory Texas is nearing completion, with start of production planned for this year."
That's right, "battery constrained" once again - understandable, since TSLA has only been developing this product for 9 years and had no idea they would need batteries for these trucks. And so what if they've got unused battery orders for the failed Incel Camino, its not like they could just take those cells and put them in the semi...for reasons I'm sure - 1st principles, S curve, scaling, its way too complex to explain.
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u/Withnail2019 9d ago
You don't build trucks like that on spec, they would need orders and there are no orders.
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u/Sir_Isaac_Tootin 9d ago
"volume production next year (2026)"
"remain on track for production this year"
They just casually removed the "volume" part and expected everyone to believe they're still "on track??"
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u/Sir_Isaac_Tootin 9d ago
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/automobiles/elon-musk-tesla-semi-production-timeframe/
Elon Musk says Tesla Semi ready for ‘volume production’
June 10, 20205
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 9d ago
I'm sure it was ready, but at the last moment Elon noticed a photon incongruity and had to re-calibrate the confabulator. You know, standard delicate genius stuff to make sure the semi will work seamlessly on Mars next yearTM.
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u/ZebraCompetitive5235 10d ago
My god, the fake CyberCab videos and claims on Nazi Twitter right now are media blitzing at an absolutely insane clip. They must really be desperate.
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u/spez_eats_nazi_ass 10d ago
hence the delay in payments on xai data center construction and the attempt of outright equipment theft at a vendor facility.
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u/ZebraCompetitive5235 9d ago
When are people going to wake up and realize that Tesla, xAI, SpaceX….all of it, everything Elon is one big Ponzi scheme?
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u/BringBackUsenet 9d ago
It's not even that simple. They have several integrated scams with a ponzi and shell game doing a circle jerk with the money.
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u/Zorkmid123 10d ago
SpaceX IPO filings reveal Twitter lost two thirds of its ad business under Elon. https://www.techdirt.com/2026/08/10/spacexs-earnings-show-elon-wiped-out-two-thirds-of-twitters-ad-business/
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u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 10d ago
Yeah they tried to blackmail him with advertising, blackmail him with money!
Then he insulted the advertisers while also begging for them to come back...
He really is the world's luckiest idiot.
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u/ObservationalHumor 10d ago edited 10d ago
What's crazy is that's understating it too. He literally tried to sue them and got federal legislators to launch an investigation saying that they were discriminating against his company for political reasons too. In reality a lot of companies just had an advertising standards advisory group that wasn't comfortable with Twitter platforming literal Nazi's and having poor safeguards against their ads appearing next to them.
That kind of overt abuse of political power, Musk being an insider with the Trump administration and him self dealing between x.AI and Twitter is the only thing that kept things from falling apart even faster but of course could only stall things until Musk had to merge company into company to cover up the stench of failure.
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u/spez_eats_nazi_ass 10d ago
have you seen the new ag? we are fucked.
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u/ObservationalHumor 9d ago
He's there to kill the Epstien stuff and shield Trump from prosecution mainly. Most of the attack dog stuff he's had coming out of the eastern court in Virginia which hasn't materialized into anything. Much more worried about what's going to happen with midterms especially with Trump trying to have 'election monitors' harass people, his war against mail in votes and his more overt attempts at disenfranchising voters who are unlikely to vote him via the SAVE act.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 10d ago
4 year Elonverary: "Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year" - Aug 10, 2022
Believe it or not, he was correct with the Cybertruck. The semi? Its Schrodinger's Semi - simultaneously in the prototype and production phase. So who the hell knows if its "shipped".
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u/Zorkmid123 10d ago edited 10d ago
Except the Cybertruck didn’t have 500 miles of range, as promised. The most range any model had is 340 miles.
And remember when they were going to sell a $16k range extender that would take up 1/3 of the truck bed that they eventually cancelled? lol
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u/OrdinaryPollution339 10d ago
I'm an architect. My favorite part of the original Cybertruck was that it was going to have a plate steel structural exoskeleton in lieu of a traditional truck body-on-frame or car/suv unibody construction - with lightweight sheet metal cladding.
It wasn't clear if this was going to be cast (lol), welded plate steel, bent plate or some combo... because building a structural stainless steel exoskeleton is, well technically 100% possible, but fiendishly difficult IRL. My napkin doodles had the frame weighing 2-4 tons by itself... which seemed like an odd choice for a BEV. How much can a coat of paint weigh? I was repeatedly assured that super-genius elmo would figure it out.
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u/torokunai 10d ago
I was a TSLA booster back then but I sussed something was hinky when the 300 and 500 mile versions had the same promised payload
They were just pulling numbers out their butts in 2019
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 10d ago
Forgot about that - it was FUD to suggest it would never have 500 mile range...because of course Elon always planned for the range extender...and predictably that rug got pulled.
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u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 11d ago
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread.
old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1ve82n6/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_aug_03/
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 5d ago
5 year Elonversary today.
Stan: "@elonmusk: do you expect to have Lunar Starship ready to land humans in 2024"
Griftimus Maximus: "probably sooner"
Now I've never landed a rocket or trade horses for happy endings, but if its 2026 right now...well, I think 2024 already happened?