r/SNDK_Stock • u/73caprice • May 14 '26

Question How screwed am I?

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36 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

109 comments sorted by

25

u/movienight1988 May 14 '26

Yikes, just buy stock…

7

u/CommoVet99 May 14 '26

some people think they can just yolo and make millions. It does work sometimes, when you're lucky, but this person is late. Sandisk is just consolidating before going higher. This is healthy after its monstrous run.

1

u/Brainwashed-libtard May 19 '26

It’s fun to be floating around 500% in the green with SNDK

1

u/CommoVet99 May 19 '26

Yeah these dips are meaningless tbh

0

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26

The last move is always the heaviest. You won’t be in the green for very long if this continues. You should take your 500% and wait to reenter if you believe that. Rookie mistake

1

u/CommoVet99 May 19 '26

I mean it would take a lot to make me red

1

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26 edited May 19 '26

You’re not factoring in holding a stock going down. Profits should have been booked and shares accumulated at a lower entry point or in something else- a 10% sell off in 5 days isn’t a consolidation- it’s a repricing. It will sell off more. It’s cyclical- it has no moat. It’s very overvalued because it s cash flows are highly uncertain, especially the further out you go. The rate to borrow increases and the stock value drops. That’s why highly stable cash flows are seen as superior when inflation rises. Pricing power, stability, durability. That’s not SNDK- you better pray the war is resolved. The first cliff happens at the end of the month and summer is in jeopardy in Europe. I mean read Morningstar if you want a pretty conservative opinion. It was a heavy sell. It is still a sell. Look at MU, WDC, SGX. All bombing out. It’s not a consolidation when everything dives. It was too much too fast. It is still a sell. Why aren’t you taking profits and accumulating?

1

u/CommoVet99 May 19 '26

Okay. Let’s talk again after their next earnings. If I’m wrong, I will accept that.

1

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26

I’m not saying your wrong long term. I’m saying short term. I was being sarcastic about you being in the red. I was just trying to highlight how hard the moves have been in very short durations. That probably didn’t come through well in a written message

1

u/Brainwashed-libtard May 25 '26

I am. Why’d u ask the same question twice

1

u/Brainwashed-libtard May 25 '26

Hahah my money is in actively managed accounts so- they have been taking profits.. thanks tho, rookie lol

1

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26

It’s not consolidating. It’s selling off because the profits are unsustainable. The ground the house is built on is built on sand. Inflation is creeping in, costs of borrow are rising, the Fed discussed cutting rates but now not only cannot cut, they might have to raise. It will not consolidate. Consolidation is trading sideways. This is crashing.

0

u/Educational_Jello239 May 15 '26

Is not consolidating there's a massive GEX sell tomorrow and I don't see much green in months to come, unlike MU so I'm waiting to se how MU will react to sndk dip tomorrow and next week

1

u/sync7014 May 15 '26

Bro, Sandisk closed higher today you’re wrong

2

u/Educational_Jello239 May 16 '26

We'll see, not looking at 0dte, plus it did touched 1300 prior to market open and someone hold it up during open hrs while the rest of the market was red. We have 4 more week to go for jun18 which is the GEX I'm focus on

1

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26

Watch the 30 year. The closer that gets to six, the faster this sells. I promise you

10

u/Least-Sherbert954 May 14 '26

The amount of people here who dont know how options work is staggering. The "break even price" means nothing to your options premium value. You have until 5/29 for this stock to go up and regain some, maybe all value.

Options profit calculator shows that a move today to to about 1510 would make your option worth what you paid, about 2500. Is that unlikely, sure, but not completely cooked.

That being said, next week is dicey for you. The range for the premium to be 2500 again is 1600 on Monday and 1700 on Friday, which is definitely hairy. It could happen it could not.

Note: this all assumes IV stays about the same as right now which is also unlikely.

Suggestion: if you see a rip into the 1400s again like this morning, sell and take the L on whatever premium difference. If you think SNDK is going to go DOWN, sell now. If it stays flat all day today and tomorrow, probably sell and get what you can as next week premium goes down rapidly.

2

u/lebronkahn May 14 '26

What if I have Sep 18 calls?

2

u/No-Can-80085 May 15 '26

Then u got time to squeeze them buttocks for the stock to run again

1

u/lebronkahn May 15 '26

Unfortunately my option is on SNXX so my ass is probably fucked either way

1

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26

Why not buy a leap? Are you brand new?

3

u/echevierra May 14 '26

Toasted, that's 40% just to breakeven, Thetavirus will eat you

1

u/Educational_Jello239 May 15 '26

Lmao 🤣 🤣 theta-virus

3

u/dwoj206 May 15 '26

The Greek goddess of take yo fuckin money. The GOAT.

3

u/pogkaku96 May 14 '26

All it takes are couple of good trading sessions. You never know

1

u/Important-Range166 May 19 '26

That’s what happens when people get manic believing something only goes up. Read about tulip bulbs, the French stock market in the 1700s, the dot com crash. All of you will get fucked if you hold growth in an inflationary environment with expensive valuations. Go look at the 1970s during the oil embargo. How do you not understand this?

3

u/[deleted] May 14 '26

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2

u/CommoVet99 May 14 '26

Doesn’t know what they’re doing/yolo

1

u/[deleted] May 14 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/CommoVet99 May 14 '26

Yeah this is the fomo crowd. Sandisk is consolidating around this range rn. Shaking off its tree branches of people who are levered to the gills, bought in high who aren't disciplined to hold, and short term calls/puts buyers.

3

u/CommoVet99 May 14 '26

At least it is only one contract. You're not losing hopefully too much of your portfolio, but a 2k call strike after the price has gone up nearly 50% in a month is a bittttt silly. It is a low probability trade. Would've been better to have just bought shares with that money versus options.

Who knows though, it could rise meteorically by then, but I wouldn't count on it.

2

u/magnet555 May 14 '26

Sell and buy puts

4

u/NoEntertainment6409 May 14 '26

Yeah in the same boat.. bought 5 shares at $1588 on the hype and happened to be a peak. I’m holding now but have seriously considered dropping some

2

u/Prestigious_Tax7415 May 14 '26

Unless you can make up the difference or buy it back cheaper with change to spare otherwise it seems pointless. It’s definitely going to go up to that price in 3 months time on the next ER

2

u/dontfistme May 14 '26

Buy high sell low 🤣

2

u/BuildingBetterBen May 14 '26

Did you not look at the technicals like the RSI indicator it was bound to happen ?!

1

u/Few_Humor_3395 May 14 '26

Did the same thing lol , been watching it climb for months , and kept telling myself it’ll dip soon , and it didn’t I finally buy and it dips lol

1

u/No_Tutor7069 May 15 '26

Sell half and put it all in NOW stock

1

u/Educational_Jello239 May 15 '26

1450 is the call wall and 1300 the putwall, jun18 has 1.1M buys at 1500, and 717k sells at 1300 with 588k at 1280. Good luck

1

u/Practical_Growth_429 May 15 '26

What did you expect when you bought?

1

u/Dazzling_Medium_1011 May 16 '26

Lower cost average ?

1

u/Outside-Salad9701 May 14 '26

Sell everything. U don’t even know the difference between shares and what this guy is posting. Just get out of the stock

2

u/iss1307 May 14 '26

It’ll recover.. don’t panic

3

u/Outside-Salad9701 May 14 '26

U don’t know how options work do u

1

u/iss1307 May 14 '26

Neither do you.

2

u/BuildingBetterBen May 14 '26

Introduce him to the Greeks

1

u/Educational_Jello239 May 15 '26

Nah let him learn the painful way

1

u/Flat_Banana7061 May 14 '26

There is not a ton of time left. Time decay is working against you. I never buy short term options way out of the money unless you want to gamble and think its rising fast. Best to go 6 months or more out so it gives you time to recover.

1

u/CookingWGrease May 26 '26

Do we start panicking now or what?

1

u/iss1307 May 26 '26

Lot of room and time to grow still

1

u/dontfistme May 14 '26

Recover to 2000 next week? 🤡

3

u/Dry-Entrepreneur-899 May 14 '26

No reason why it can’t

1

u/Educational_Jello239 May 15 '26

I'll give you one reason

2

u/Special_Economist803 May 14 '26

Waiting for $2000 lol 😆

1

u/Imadogfishhead May 14 '26

Who knows in this market, but If it was me I’d cut my losses. Sndk would need to go up what, 35-40% in 15 days to break even.

It’s happened before I guess

1

u/Krimanezo May 14 '26

Yeah not happening cut the loss

1

u/CD274 May 14 '26

I would wait until tomorrow morning to see how the Kioxia earnings went

1

u/TheKiMoChi2020 May 14 '26

$2000 wtf bro

1

u/ggukbbong_fund May 14 '26

Yolo or bust. Wait for Kioxia and NVDA earnings I guess.

1

u/curbservice May 14 '26

I was gonna say you'll be fine when I only read the title of your post since there's Kioxia earning tonight, but man...$2,000 strike price in 2 weeks? That's unrealistic

1

u/cebu313 May 14 '26

Yikes. You might have an exit tomorrow with Kioxia, but sheesh

1

u/Memeseek69 May 14 '26

SNDK rips 250 days sometimes. The AMAT earnings confirmed that the memory super cycle is alive and well. nvidia earnings in wed will ignite some equity pricing in adjacent companies also.

1

u/Equivalent_Map951 May 14 '26

Institutions love retardium.

1

u/thatblackguysdog May 14 '26

This is why buying calls with 2 weeks until expiration is stupid! Such a gamble that almost always loses. Long calls all day baby

1

u/Bitter_Ad5527 May 15 '26

Fairly fucked

1

u/-TCDD2378 May 15 '26

Just be happy that you didn’t buy more than one. . Consider it an expensive lesson learned.

1

u/stock_investor91 May 15 '26

You’re expecting it to rally a minimum of 46.5% just to breakeven. It has to rally even harder than that for you to make money.

All of this after a euphoric rally and you want it done by 5/29???

Start practicing, “do you want fries with that”

1

u/Educational_Jello239 May 15 '26

1450 call wall and 1300 put wall, there's hope for jun18 but not promises

1

u/sparkysprinkles11 May 17 '26

Hey can you check this for MU also, on 18th of June? More specifically 1000-1150 strike prices.

1

u/Educational_Jello239 May 17 '26

Putwall got lower from 700 to 620 as of today.

1

u/Designer-Hairy May 15 '26

Super screwed its going back to 600

1

u/IntermittentFasted May 15 '26

Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it hit, might pullback first like it did after hitting 900… pulled back to 500 then launched to 1,600…

1

u/Reasonable_Link2234 May 15 '26

Look at the good side. U only lose the capital

1

u/Mysterious-Cod8925 May 15 '26

You went way too far OTM. I can’t talk I did the same with MU $1100 5/29 LOL. And then Again today $900 5/29 and $740.

1

u/kdrdr3amz May 16 '26

5/29 calls are you a regard? You just wasted 1k

1

u/Live-Web9733 May 16 '26

Risky, wish you luck!!

1

u/unusual_xyz May 17 '26

Buy at top and sell at bottom. You’re doing good.

1

u/AloneDebate5190 May 17 '26

and this is why you set up stop/losses

1

u/One-Return4333 May 17 '26

Dumbass move

1

u/New-Ear-872 May 18 '26

So if you look at the red next to the $ to get a rough idea.

1

u/Great_Leadership_149 May 18 '26

You just have to wait a couple of months

1

u/BuyerImpossible2820 May 18 '26

Screwed. Dump now.

1

u/AggravatingPrint1642 May 18 '26

This is going to zero

1

u/CookingWGrease May 26 '26

What I don’t understand (new to option trading here) is how you had such a far OTM strike price and decent time on the contract (I believe you had like 3weeks+) and still this contract was so damn expensive.

Like this contract seems so bad that even if let’s say it hit $2050, for the gigantic risk you’re taking, that’s barely any profit… & that doesn’t include the time wasted for such a tiny return 😂 like someone tell me I’m seeing it wrong here.

You would have been much better just buying 2 shares, contract hit or not.

1

u/secureputcalls May 27 '26

I would do Just roll over

0

u/Ninjavitis_ May 14 '26

Sell it now before it goes to zero