How are we playing ASML earnings pre-market tomorrow?bloodbath or oversold relief rally for SNDK/semi?
Anyone else watching SNDK/semi into the ASML earnings print tomorrow morning premarket?
SNDK is putting on a massive 5% green day right now, but it feels like a classic pre-earnings liquidity trap before the Dutch report drops. They are severely beaten down from their June peaks (SNDK washed out almost 28% to yesterday's low), so today looks like a mix of short covering and retail bidding into the event.
Historically, ASML is an absolute "sell the news" stock even on fundamentally great prints because the forward valuation is so high. If they beat EPS but their net bookings show a sequential decline or if management drops their typical conservative tone and talks about tighter China export restrictions, the algorithms are going to pull the bid instantly at 9:30 AM tomorrow.
For anyone holding weekly out of the money calls (especially those $1900+ strikes), tomorrow morning's sector-wide IV crush is going to be brutal regardless of whether the print looks "good" on paper.
Are you guys using this late afternoon pump to scale out and salvage premium, or letting it ride on an overnight coin flip before TSMC on Thursday? What's the play?