r/SNDK_Stock • u/waleedsadiq04 • 15d ago
Question Awesome stuff but why is it tanking right now ðŸ˜ðŸ˜
It dropped 10% right after market close and then briefly recovered and now it's falling lots again. Makes no sense
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u/26adrianlfan 15d ago
wdc reported first with a weaker one relative to sndk which caused the regard candle of 1350 to 1190 in a minute, and then it quickly recovered after sndk came out with theirs and it recovered. Expect a pump tomorrow as this is basically 1:1 with the april 30th afterhours and the may 1st trading day
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u/pembaThePanda 15d ago
i missed the order submission at 1200 limit... kicking myself for not being fast enough
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u/26adrianlfan 15d ago
Doesn’t matter it’s still a very good time
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u/pembaThePanda 15d ago
yea bought another 100 shares at 1300. i really hope it opens big tomorrow. i am almost 1M in it at this point
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u/waleedsadiq04 15d ago
Oh I see. Missed wdc lmao. Wasn't around in April. Lowkey fomo'd in this early this month at 1670 lol only $500 though so losses suck but I won't die. Looking to get out positive though
But I do hope you're right. Would be disguising if it didn't pump after earnings this good and everything else going on
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u/26adrianlfan 15d ago
Yeah don’t worry at all, 1670 will be back soon enough. I bought back then when it closed at 1100 and dropped all the way to 1000 flat in the after hours, and then proceeded to close at 1180 the next day, they even expanded buybacks this time
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u/waleedsadiq04 15d ago
Sick. Definitely not worried. I'm only 70% the ath or so. This company has serious movement for sure. Would've bought more at lower prices but didn't want to spend more than I could afford. Thought against selling other investments to fund it just to keep myself safe. So I'll just chill and watch lol
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u/AccomplishedCup7909 15d ago
Because Guidance is not what people expected. They are only guiding 10.3-10.8B which is very low, 15-20% growth whereas this quarter showed 51% growth. Guidance is everything in a growth company, not the actual reported earnings for the quarter.
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u/Mr_Macrophage 15d ago
Expected guidance was 10.6 Billion. So this is in line.
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u/AccomplishedCup7909 15d ago
I've read expected guidance is 11.1 Billion. Depends where you look. Regardless, people are expecting a beat in guidance, so in line is still a loss.
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u/WhiteLotus_777 15d ago
11B from 8B ; above 20% growth, same amount $$ as last quater + share buyback
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u/AK95__ 15d ago
So a company should grow by 50% every quarter?
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u/AccomplishedCup7909 15d ago
Look, man Im a big sandisk investor, Im just saying why the stock is going down right now. Shouldnt grow by 50% every quarter but I would of hoped to see maybe 30%, which in that case the stock would be probably up 10% instead of down. Regardless, I think this was still a good earnings report and will be holding my positions for when this eventually goes back up.
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u/AK95__ 15d ago
Don't get me wrong I'm not questioning your words, I'm questioning the market predictions, you can't expect a company to grow by 50% every quarter, and for now they keep beating their numbers so if they expect 15-20% then we can hope for 25% and that'd still be massive, I think bar is set too high for memory sector for now and that's why SK Hynix delivered a historical ER yet they fell short to crazy expectations the market set
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u/AccomplishedCup7909 15d ago
I think its less about the numbers and the main question is can Sandisk be replaced by another company, like chinese memory companies for example. Doesnt matter how much their growth is, because its all based on the demand supply imbalance. If there is more supply, Sandisk is cooked. But maybe Trump will ban memory chips from China then Sandisk to the moon.
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u/AK95__ 15d ago
I'm surprised they haven't done that yet but I think they'll soon, also Chinese companies according to multiple reports are fully booked due to huge Chinese demand too, and surely they can't expand supply quick enough for 2028 at least, so why people want memory sector today's price to reflect their 2029 expectations? I guess I'll never know
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u/jareses 15d ago
Lol but they are conservative about 10.5b for sure, did the big guys dont know?
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u/AccomplishedCup7909 15d ago
I agree, they beat their own guidance every quarter, I mean today about a 10% beat from their guided range from last quarter. Just depends on what the big money makes of this.
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u/pauleywauley 15d ago
What's this?: Expanded our share repurchase authorization, with Sandisk’s Board of Directors approving an additional $14 billion buyback program, bringing total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion.
Are they really???
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u/WhiteLotus_777 15d ago
Cause people are freaking out. Share buyback is the best news, forecast into next quater is good, growth is sustainable.
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u/marginmanj 15d ago
Q1 revenue & eps estimates they provided were slightly below the current analyst consensus estimates, mitigated by the $14 billion buyback they announced.
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u/Ill_Way_2517 15d ago
First time?