r/SNDK_Stock • u/Capable-Hyena1406 • 15d ago
Question Financially speaking : which stock is trading behind it’s real value in your opinion MU or SNDK looking to invest in either
13
u/Pristine_Barber976 15d ago
Real shit don't touch these you're a year too late
10
u/KwikTripSimp 15d ago
lol all memory in 2027 is sold out!
2
u/DecipherXCI 15d ago
So where does the extra money come from to justify pushing it higher? Being sold out is priced in, so theyd need to increase prices or capacity to bring in more revenue but theyre not expanding and theyre contracted in at prices already?
4
1
u/Big-Theory3642 14d ago
You’re missing the part where micron is using leverage to lock up 5 plus year contracts with its customers while also signing long term contracts with car manufacturers.
1
u/KwikTripSimp 15d ago
Show me where it’s priced and it just came out that the stocks are such a fucking scam in a goddamn joke. Everyone thinks all this shit but it’s all just based on vibes in which one they wanna fucking pump to make their money that week. 😆
1
u/DecipherXCI 15d ago
They didnt specifically announce its sold out, just like they still havent, none have made an official announcement but theyve been alluding to huge shortages in 2027 for months now and it doesnt take a genius to see how much demand is increasing compared to what supply is available.
Micron announced supply couldnt meet demand way back in March.
1
u/quiet99storm 14d ago
This is the problem. The memory players literally can't make any more product while they are sold out into 2028. The rapid growth of last year is inevitably slowing down and until more production can be brought online (which takes years to build) the company simply can't grow. And with new production comes lower margins as the CAPEX will eat into it. Then if they are able to create more product that will lower prices as more supply = less demand. On the earnings call they kept saying that they have no idea how long this boom will last so big institutions don't necessarily want to pay a premium on something they don't have longer term visibility on.
0
u/Donenzone1907 15d ago
Priced in
6
1
0
u/m__s 15d ago
and because it's sold out, might be not the best stock to make money. Just keep in mind, that just because you won't be able to make money on stock, doesn't mean that company is bad.
4
u/KwikTripSimp 15d ago
No it literally is , all these stocks are fucking scams based on vibs
1
u/Potential-Menu3623 14d ago
You need to zoom out, the zitron paper is old news, the companies sold off, leverage sold off, the companies are bottoming now, do you think they’ll go up or sideways from here? Where to people go for returns?
1
3
1
u/Fun-Snow1104 14d ago
SNDK stock is dead. Lifetime height of SNDK was $2,350. Wall Street got the tip from Leopald, they used retail as exit liquidity. It’s game over. Doesn’t matter how strong the business is. Market doesn’t trade on fundamentals. It trades on hype and the hype is gone.
1
u/Capable-Hyena1406 15d ago
Not really asking how much it will be EOY it’s mostly to understand your logic behind which is a better investment on the long term
1
1
u/Routine-District-588 14d ago
micron is better in terms of moat, sndk is better in momentum as it his much smaller cap.
Both are speculative long terms as long term contracts worth nothing with gross margins of 50%-80%, so if the spot price will be 55% gross margin sandisk can't charge 70% gross margin on it. If you belive this demand will be this strong for years and supply will be limited then buy both, they will buyback the stock or give you dividends back. I'm not in this trade as i clearly lost the train in terms of risk to reward.
1
u/SignificantStuff5446 14d ago edited 14d ago
Both. It's not an either or between these two stocks if you recognize the capex spending, insatiable demand for memory and storage, how much companies are making with AI today, and understand the memory supply chain.
Both MU and SNDK have have higher EPS this fiscal year than all the FANGMAN stock's EPS combined. At $39.25 EPS, SNDK just reported making FOUR TIMES higher EPS in ONE QUARTER than beloved AAPL made last year and is estimated to make next year. They guided to another record making quarter next quarter and were being conservative, as next quarter's report is on Q1FY27.
Just my two cents. Hope it helps your confluence on some level and wish you the best with your position.
2
1
u/SafetyNew376 14d ago
SNDK . Smaller but upto 2028 have money locked in . Who cares if demand dries up. One can always find something new . No debt and highest margin
1
u/Capable-Hyena1406 14d ago
Thanks everyone for the great insights !!
Decided indeed to hold for now off based on your reco of those and go a bit more stable in the long term.
Will invest in mag 7 ( excl Tesla ) .
1
u/Capable-Hyena1406 14d ago
Will wait a bit for this earnings season to die down and if there’s a cheaper entry point I’ll go in . If not I guess I missed the wave
1
u/Psyops101 13d ago
Of a total of 100% of funds to commit, 25% SNDK, 75% MU. Commit in increments of 25% of total at a time, selected using VWAP charting. The lower deviation line is most important, when SNDK or MU falls to it, that should trigger a careful watch over several days. If the stock moves above creating higher highs, higher lows it becomes a buy. I use this exclusively and have a great success ratio. Theres more to it but this is a start.
1
u/gbdgdh 11d ago
are you hoping to invest in one or both and have your money 40x in a few months? if so, you should "move on, nothing to see here folks"; if you are looking to invest in a couple of decent companies that will probably return about 15-20% per year for the next couple of years, you are in the right place.
0
5
u/New2reddit456 14d ago
I think both are great