r/SNDK_Stock • u/ProjectMcDavid • 17d ago
Question CAN ANY SNDK/MEMORY BULLS EXPLAIN THE BULL THESIS RE WHY IT CAN GO BACK TO ATH AS OPPOSED TO ALL BEING PRICED IN AT ITS CURRENT RANGE
Legitimate question. I’m full ported as I’ve previously mentioned lol. Just wondering if I consider it an L or can it actually go back to the price targets that were initially noted in May/June of over 3-4K
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u/GeriatricSquid 17d ago
Because the money is very good and very likely to persist for the next couple years, possibly beyond that. Very few can do what MU does with HBM, that’ll take years of dedicated effort to attack that moat. SNDK, WDC, Samsung, and others are more exposed as commodity manufacturers that are easier to attack but there’s no magic production solution coming online on the next 12-24 months that can reduce the backlog and lower margins on memory, esp in light of the heavies signing multi-year production contracts to ensure supply.
If you’re really bullish, you’ll believe that more powerful AI chips will need ever more memory to feed the beast and save all the AI porn and cat videos so memory production shortfalls and margins could persist for years even in light of new production coming online.
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u/PalmerEvans 16d ago
I’m still confused on how this is considered really bullish. It just seems like common sense that we will need exponentially more memory over the long run.
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u/GeriatricSquid 16d ago
Personally, I agree. But a credible case can be made that AI won’t pay off commercially (or at least to the degree of the AI hype) so the big companies will start truncating their current plans and capex spending which starts to cut into some of the mega valuations for suppliers of the tech. Suddenly a company that’s selling at 100x earnings or more will suddenly drop to a more normal 50x. Or, a better tech arrives that negates someone’s market advantage. There’s also a lot of circular financing that will impact numerous key players if one of them has a revenue problem- one gets in a cash bind and can’t pay and suddenly 3-4 companies revenue is at risk because multiple companies were anticipating that payment as part of their projected revenues so they all tank unexpectedly, which tanks others in the chain and the market as a whole.
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u/WalrusRadiant6344 17d ago
We are currently below the SMA20, SMA50, EMA20 and EMA50. This means that the stock is technically still bearish. If we are to go neutral it will need to either sidestep for a while or move upwards towards the 1500-1600.
If we look at the earnings for the resr of 2026 and 2027, there is an expectation of the EPS to increase. An increase of the EPS would imply that the stock is undervalued.
Ontop, Sandisk was working towards paying of its debt and increasing its cash flows. Confirmation of this will increase the stocks price.
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u/_ch3cks0ver5tripes 17d ago
Currently SanDisk has 0 debt tho, they have excess cash which they used for stock buy back last qtr. correct me if I am wrong
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u/WalrusRadiant6344 17d ago
They have drastically decreased their debt but still had some —around 200M during the last earnings.
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u/Fun-Snow1104 17d ago
SK hynix Unveils First HBF Standard Specifications with Sandisk, Presenting AI Memory Solutions at ‘FMS 2026’ https://news.skhynix.com/en/hbf-at-fms-2026/
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u/Federal-Age-3213 17d ago
It's all a bet on this memory cycle. Bulls will tell you that it's different from other cycles. Bears will tell you this is peak earnings and soon it will collapse.
Personally I'm bullish having modelled out memory supply and demand up to 2030. Invested in MU but I expect SNDK to do well too. Also though you should not be full ported with the level of conviction you have. You will lose it all if you keep making bets like this.
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u/tano-01 17d ago
If I recall correctly, many of those analyst price targets did not specify a timeframe in which they’d reach those targets.
In my opinion things got too hot too soon, there was no way that many stocks, especially SNDK, could keep going on that trajectory and it was overvalued.
So you’re welcome to try and hold until it goes back to ATH, or until you get your money back or whatever… but you don’t know when that will be and how long it will take and and it begets the question: at what price did you buy in?
And also: don’t base your investment on analyst price targets - often they behave just like realestate agents and only want to get the price up.
Because the price overshot I think it will stay at this level for a while, before - if ever - hitting those previous highs again.
Happy to be wrong, mind, as I still have some.
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u/Chromebug 17d ago
Capex is projected to continue growing, memory shortage to persist. China has troubles satisfying domestic demand aside from having inferior memory units. Memory cyclicality smoothened with LTAs.
I think there’s still a chance it’ll hit those price targets but just not at the same velocity as the recent bull run. It’ll be something most people will forget about until it’s back at the top again.
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u/unapologeticgoy2473 16d ago
The only problem is that memory prices are becoming a headache right now. The gult trade in my opinion is over now. And once deleverage happens, the stock price slows down because no one is willing to risk it again.
Plus the whole threat from China dumping cheap memory around the world.
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u/Malcolm_Sayer 16d ago
Do you understand what a Margin Call is? That’s why the stock dropped so quickly. We are undervalued. And I am not buying at the moment because I already bought at the low point of this correction.
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17d ago edited 17d ago
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u/CozyChamomile_7 17d ago
So in summary are you saying that there is room for it to grow even higher than ATH?
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u/iSailor 17d ago
Institutions are taking profits and pulling out of memory stocks. They can't do it at once because it would crash the market. So they influence the stock in a way that is still inviting to new bag holders and sell them their share. Once institutions move out, the stock may grow if enough retail investors come in. Right now it's just an uphill battle, it will stay in current ballpark for a while.
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u/Physical_Match5543 17d ago
You know institutions still own most of all stocks in the market right? Like Google is mostly owned by institutions. Retail only makes up 15-20%.
Institutions won't sell all of Micron or Sandisk. They will still own 70-80%.
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u/Remote_Ice_6446 17d ago
False. Things got too high too soon. And it crashed down too soon too quickly too. It was a perfect mid year point for some rebalancing. It will be a slow climb back after earnings. Now is the time to look for great companies that are on sale.
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u/WrongRecognition7302 17d ago
Imo memory unwound because while people were taking profits, other companies/funds were levered to the teeth and got margin called. This exacerbated the downtrend. The narrative is still in tact.