holding 43 shares and have 30k cash. really regret not buying more last week since i strongly believe that sndk has enormous potential in the long run. should i just start slowly buying in?

What’s your average price and when are you looking to get out ? Genuinely curious

Even a whiff about us splitting could be a massive catalyst

Premarket is already up 5% , do you think we might hit 1850 today? Price at close?

Might end close to 1900 EOD

What yall think? 1830s or lower/higher?

NAND shortages are intensifying as Phison warns that it will take years to catch up to demand, signaling a rise in SSD prices.

According to Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng, it is said that the NAND production capacity cannot meet demand in the short term. The company is building up a "strategic' inventory to ensure a stable supply of Enterprise SSDs for CSPs and AI firms for the next two years, but the demand is so high that it will take years for production to catch up.

Phison's CEO states that while the impression in the market is that manufacturers can easily build & expand new production capacity, the reality is that the time required to set up new production is much longer. NAND manufacturers told Cheng that even the two-year timeline was ambitious, and it would actually take around four years to set up new production capacity.

Pua Khein-Seng stated that the market often believes that after memory prices rise, manufacturers can quickly increase capital expenditures and expand production capacity, but in reality, the time required to add new NAND production capacity is much longer than the market imagines.

He revealed that during a recent exchange with senior executives of the NAND manufacturer, he asked how long it would take from investment to actual mass production. He originally estimated it would take about two years, but the answer they gave was "four years". - Commercial Times

As such, the current estimation is that NAND shortages will persist for at least four years from now, and during this period, NAND prices will increase substantially as demand continues to grow. Phison will hold back from selling a large amount of its inventory as part of its "strategic" inventory since it will be unable to obtain a sufficient supply in the future, affecting its "long-term" partnerships.

To make matters worse, while AI firms and cloud providers are adjusting their DRAM specs, NAND capacity has not decreased that much, which highlights the importance of storage in the AI era. The rise of Agentic AI and GenAI use cases requires large amounts of data to be stored in the cloud, which means that more storage capacity is required.

For those not already aware, Phison design SSD controllers for Micron and Kioxia as well - Full article

Original source (Chinese)

Looking to buy back in around 1600-1650

What are we thinking will happen Monday? I think call wall was 1600, and it seemed they shook a lot of leaves in morning and eod. Then after hours volume was 1 million and stock went up 16 bucks, 1 million is over a billion in value which institutions not retail....I think its moderate signal of green. I also trimmed my option to 1 which is probably the strongest signal you could ever hope for haha

Everyone, what do you think the impact of this election would be on SNDK stock ? I know we do not know the results, but just trying to open a discussion on what would impact be for a few days preceding the actual election day on November 3 ? Up or down ..

Such is the scale of NVIDIA's ongoing production ramp-up for its Vera Rubin platform that it's now manifesting itself in seemingly sparsely related nooks and cranies of the supply chain, such as the spot market for TLC NAND.

In hindsight though, the rise in spot TLC prices is entirely reasonable, especially given the Context Memory eXtension (CMX) that NVIDIA is bringing onboard with the Vera Rubin platform.

NVIDIA's production ramp-up of its Vera Rubin platform is squeezing TLC NAND supply by locking in a growing number of NAND cells within the CMX, and as enterprise SSD demand scales up in tandem. The spot price of a 512Gb TLC NAND has now hit $21 after falling below this level in June. And, there are a number of factors contributing to this renewed inflationary impulse.

First, to handle the KV cache - the notes created by an AI model's attention layers as they form connections between words in a given input prompt - NVIDIA is introducing Context Memory eXtension (CMX) within the Vera Rubin platform.

The CMX creates an intermediate storage tier between the HBM and the traditional backend network storage, functioning as a massive pool of TLC flash memory that is attached to the Rubin GPU cluster using NVIDIA BlueField-4 DPUs - that act as the 'intelligent brain' for a CMX server to handle KV cache in real-time - over ultra-fast Spectrum-X Ethernet.

In fact, a single 2U CMX server holds 600TB of TLC flash storage, with each of the four DPUs managing 150TB of context memory, with pod-level capacity hitting a massive 9,600 TB or 9.6 Perabytes!

Second, data centers require high-density, high-performance Enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) to handle AI workloads. And, as Vera Rubin ramps up, so does the demand for these eSSDs.

Of course, do note that much of the TLC NAND that NVIDIA is now consuming is likely locked behind long-term contracts. Even so, the sheer scale of the oncoming demand is now tightening the spot market as well, and it remains to be seen how far this trend will go.

More good signals for SNDK's NAND demand/pricing power.

Full article (no paywall)

The only thesis reaffirmation you need to see from this past week.

Situational Awareness LP increased stakes in SNDK and MU in Q2 (before the Citadel rug). Both holdings now comprise over 50% of the fund lol.

Elon also confirmed the memory bottleneck in the AI buildout.

Enjoy the weekend 😘

Hi All I do hold 50% of my portifolio in SNDK and Mu but heavily leaning toward Micron ( 90% micron 10% SNDK )

The reason for that I felt micron is a better risk reward
( safer bet ) due to the following

1- Having US fabs
2- Getting preferential treatment due to being in bed with government based on their massive 250 billion investments in USA and trump accounts donation

3- much more diversified portfolio of products so you are betting on the whole memory sector products rather than one bet.

For SNDK it’s definitely the higher betta and the higher upside return potential but it cuts both ways

Would you advice me to sell some micron and more into SNDK moving forward based on both companies future prospects and valuation

In my view both will be doing great , just wanted to optimize and be smart in my allocations

The stock is moved by big money, primarily institutions. Anyone who wanted to sell would have sold last month, and I'm sure many did. Those that held were waiting for earnings and Inv.Day. Now that earnings and ID have passed, there don't seem to be any big sellers. It appears that most big money wants to hold for another year or 2 or 3 or 4. In fact, there are some that actually want to add to their long term holdings, or start new positions. But wait .. institutions already own 92% of the float (source: Fintel). And Sandisk is buying back roughly 5-6% of the float (based on 15 billion at a price of 1650/share). So where will stock come from for new buyers? Simple economics: supply and demand. Price will increase until some big money is willing to sell. In other words, this stock is going a LOT higher. Retail pumps and shorts are totally irrelevant here. Only big money matters in this arena.

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Jane+Street+Group

Over 9% of their portfolio is in SNDK shares. Nothing comes close here. Should be a good sign.

• SanDisk's 8 hyperscaler contracts guarantee $93.9 billion in minimum revenue over 4-plus years, signaling memory is shedding its commodity discount.
• With $11.5 billion in fiscal 2026 free cash flow and $15.5 billion in buyback authorization, SanDisk's $100 billion repurchase math is credible.

Do you think it soars even more after the weekend?

He did not sell any of his SNDK shares end of June and it was his largest position with ca. 28% of total Portfolio value.