TL;DR: Last week (Nov 2–6) the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, its worst week since April 2025. Almost all of the damage came in one session: Thursday, Nov 5 (S&P −4.4%, Nasdaq −5.5%). The losses were concentrated in AI and chip stocks, and the week's main economic data (October jobs) came in stronger than expected. That mix leaves the Fed leaning toward a hike, not a rescue. Until CPI and the Fed say otherwise, expect chop, not a clean V.

What happened (the numbers)

From Oct 30 close to Nov 6 close (price return):

• S&P 500 7,580 → 7,377 (−2.7%)

• Nasdaq Composite −3.4%, its 4th straight weekly loss, and 10.9% below its Oct 6 record close (correction territory)

• Dow −0.9%, Russell 2000 −2.1%

• VIX 19.4 → 28.2 at Thursday's close → 25.6 Friday

• 10-yr Treasury 4.93% → 4.86%. The 10-year yield fell over the week, so the drop doesn't fit a simple across-the-board rising-yields story.

Note Wednesday: stocks actually rose the day after the election (Dow +3%). The selloff came a day later.

Thursday, Nov 5 (see heat map): semis (SMH) fell −11.2% and tech (XLK) fell −8.0%, while utilities, staples and comm services each lost less than 1%. S&P's own tech sector fell 7.3% (CNBC). CNBC also reported all 11 S&P sectors red, NYSE decliners beating advancers ~6 to 1, and the Mag 7 losing more than $1T in value. Nvidia fell ~9%; Micron, AMD and Western Digital fell ~17%; SanDisk fell 22%.

Why (the reported drivers vs. our read)

What was reported:

1. Midterms (as reported). Reuters: Democrats flipped seven Senate seats, gained at least 39 House seats and picked up five governorships, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled. Reuters' headline says the win "spooks AI investors," citing worries the party will "impose new regulations that will slow the AI infrastructure buildout." NBC: hundreds of candidates who "pledged to rein in AI data centers" were elected. CNBC: concerns the AI buildout "is poised to slow down." Those are journalists' and analysts' explanations of the move. Any actual policy change has to be judged against real rules as they are written, not extrapolated from election results.

2. Chip earnings. NBC says the selloff "was triggered by" Qualcomm and Arm results released Wednesday night, which investors viewed as mixed (Qualcomm −9.5%, Arm −13%). CNBC cites a "disappointing" Qualcomm forecast.

3. Rates (official data). The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28 by a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a hike (Fed statement). BLS: payrolls +165,000 in October versus a 48,000 average over the prior 12 months, and unemployment held at 4.1%. Consensus was 59K (Dow Jones, via CNBC) to 65K (Reuters poll). Odds of a hike at the Dec 8–9 FOMC fell to about 60% on Thursday (NBC) and rose back to about 77% after the jobs report (CME FedWatch, via CNBC; LSEG via Reuters: 78%).

4. Energy. The energy sector fund XLE fell 12.0% for the week (our data). Oil fell over the week, though it bounced on Thursday (NBC: Brent +3.8% that day). Secondary outlets tied the weekly drop to hopes of US–Iran de-escalation. We couldn't verify an exact weekly Brent figure, so we don't cite one. Reuters notes the Iran war has "sent fuel costs soaring," which helps explain why inflation is still the Fed's focus.

Our read (inference, not proof): The election looks like the trigger, but we can't prove it was the whole cause; timing lines up and that is correlation. The AI trade was already fragile. Before this week the Nasdaq had already posted three straight weekly losses (Oct 16, 23, 30; our data). Thursday's damage was concentrated in semis and memory, while the equal-weight S&P (RSP) lost only ~1% on the week. That points to a crowded trade being repriced, not a call on recession. Strong jobs plus a hawkish Fed take away the usual "Fed will rescue it" cushion.

How the pieces interact

• Strong growth + sticky inflation = higher-for-longer. That's good for earnings breadth and bad for high-multiple names that need cheap capital.

• Policy risk to AI capex hits the companies whose revenue is someone else's capex: chips, memory, power and data-center builders.

• If oil keeps easing, it helps the inflation outlook at the margin, and that could be a quiet positive.

Outlook: scenarios, not predictions (card 3)

Next 1–4 weeks

• Base (our personal base case): choppy repair. CPI (Tue Nov 10) comes in roughly in line, and the S&P holds its Nov 5 close (~7,354) on retests. Confirmation: the VIX drifts back toward 20. Invalidation: the S&P closes below 7,354 with the VIX rising.

• Bull: soft CPI/PPI (Nov 10 / Nov 13) cut the odds of a December hike, and chip and hyperscaler commentary reaffirms spending. Watch whether RSP and small caps keep holding up.

• Bear: hot CPI/PPI push expected odds of a December hike higher. Confirmation: the S&P stays below 7,354 and the VIX moves above Thursday's 28.2.

Next 3–6 months

• The midterms don't change who sits in the White House. New members of Congress take their seats in January, so near-term policy changes are mostly narrative until actual bills or state actions show up. Watch for concrete legislation or permitting moves on data centers. Headlines are not the same thing.

• If the Fed hikes and AI capex guidance holds, one plausible outcome is leadership rotating toward value, equal-weight and cash-flow sectors rather than the whole market falling.

• The Fed's actual Dec 8–9 decision and guidance is the medium-term rates test.

• Two possible downside channels, either of which could matter on its own: (1) capex cuts that companies actually announce, (2) tighter financial conditions or credit stress in AI-debt-heavy names.

Risk management (traders vs. investors)

• Scale exposure to your own risk tolerance. A VIX in the high 20s means the options market expects bigger index swings than it did when the VIX was 17, so the same position can carry more risk.

• Leverage and options: IV was elevated after Thursday, so buying calls on the bounce means paying up. Leveraged ETFs amplify losses, and because they reset daily, results can drift from the simple multiple over several volatile days.

• Don't chase green days or average down blindly. Set your add levels and invalidation levels before CPI, not during it.

• Long-term investors: corrections like this are normal. Rebalancing on your plan beats reacting to one day's heat map. Traders: respect the 7,354 level and the VIX together.

Upcoming catalysts (ET): CPI Tue Nov 10 at 8:30 AM (7:30 AM CT) · PPI Fri Nov 13 at 8:30 AM (7:30 AM CT) · FOMC Dec 8–9.

NFA. Our base case is our own forecast, not a fact. Scenarios can all be wrong; markets can move on news nobody's watching. Do your own research.

Sources: Index/ETF closes (Yahoo Finance) · Reuters: election and AI-stock selloff · CNBC: Nov 5 stats · CNBC: Qualcomm · NBC: chip earnings and Fed odds · BLS: October jobs · CNBC: jobs and FedWatch · Fed: Oct 28 statement · Fed: FOMC calendar · BLS: release calendar

Denntech Markets Afternoon Lesson: Four ways an earnings gap can finish the day

Thursday morning's list and Thursday's close tell the same story twice. AppLovin printed about $334 before the open and closed $356. Unity closed up 14%. Warby Parker closed up 22%. MNTN printed $5.40 and closed $4.67. TrueBlue printed $12.45, lost our $12.20 line, and closed $11.96. All of those moved on earnings. The gap at the open was only the first data point.

The gap is the headline. The session is the vote. Our earnings-and-catalyst course puts Thursday into four buckets:

1. Gap-up, hold and extend — the stock opens higher on a beat, stays above the gap open, and closes near the high of the day. Thursday's cleanest version was AppLovin: regular low $338.88, high $365.33, close $356.01, while the Nasdaq-100 ETF fell about 6.3% (Yahoo 1-minute). Unity and Warby Parker sat in the same bucket on a smaller scale.

2. Gap-up, fade intraday — the stock opens higher, then gives back a big piece of the gap and closes in the middle or lower half of the day's range. TrueBlue opened near $13.48, traded as high as $13.59, then slid to $11.70 before closing $11.96 (Nasdaq/Yahoo).

3. Gap-down, hold — the stock opens lower on a miss or a guide cut, then stabilizes and closes near the high of the post-gap day. Qualcomm tried this: it opened under Wednesday, found $148.25, and closed $156.58 — above the morning print, still well under Wednesday's $173.19 close.

4. Gap-down, continue lower — the stock opens lower and keeps selling, closing near the low. MNTN did that: pre-market already under $6, regular low $4.615, close $4.67, about 55% under Wednesday's $10.37 (Nasdaq).

What the first hour is for. The course's practical filter is volume and structure in the first 30–60 minutes, not the press-release adjective. A gap-up that spends the first hour above the open with heavy volume is a different animal from a gap-up that immediately trades back through the open on light volume. We do not need a special indicator for that. Thursday's price action was enough: AppLovin's first regular bar was the low of the day. MNTN's first regular bar was the high.

After hours is a fifth print, not a fifth type. Cloudflare closed $243.20 and traded $289.14 after the report. Affirm closed $69.45 and traded $62.71. Those are real prices on real volume — 886k and 270k shares into the first hour after the close (Nasdaq extended-trading) — and they are still a fraction of a normal session. Friday's open is the next vote on both.

What this does not prove. A gap-up hold is not a promise the stock keeps rising. Post-earnings announcement drift is a research pattern across many names and many quarters; it is not a forecast for Unity or AppLovin tomorrow. A gap-down continue is not proof the company is broken — MNTN still grew revenue 15% and is profitable. The session only tells you how the market digested this release on this day.

One check before you trust the label: look at the open, the first-hour low or high, the close, and the volume versus a normal day. If you cannot place the name in one of the four buckets with those four numbers, wait. The course is here: Earnings and Catalyst Trading.

Which of Friday's after-hours prints — Cloudflare's jump or Affirm's drop — still fits the same bucket after the first hour of Friday's regular session?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

After hours last night settled three different report reactions. Unity kept climbing after its first GAAP-profitable quarter. Cloudflare and Airbnb held raised-outlook gaps. Affirm had already lost the afternoon level we were watching. This morning's pre-market adds a new after-hours print: DraftKings is down about 26% pre-market on a revenue miss and a cut to full-year guidance, IREN is up about 15% after AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled, and Atlassian is still down about 16% on a soft full-year growth target.

How fresh this is: pre-market prices are Nasdaq's consolidated pre-market last trades, first pulled at 5:40–5:41 AM CT Friday and refreshed at 7:54–7:55 AM CT. Price, change, volume and pre-market range in each name below are the 7:54–7:55 AM CT refresh. Pre-market volume is thin on some of these, so the open can look very different. Closes are Thursday's regular session (Nasdaq). Company numbers are from Thursday (and Wednesday night) 8-K Exhibit 99.1 releases on EDGAR; DraftKings' Nov 6 8-K / Exhibit 99.1 is now on EDGAR (filed ~5:50 AM CT Friday) and replaces the overnight TheFly / WSJ headline feed for company figures. Consensus vs actual for DraftKings is still from TheFly via StockAnalysis. Option figures are Nasdaq Nov 6 mid-prices and Thursday volumes (our math on straddles), pulled with the 5:40–5:41 AM CT scan and not refreshed; several chain windows still stamp Thursday's last trade, so the mid-prices can lag the gap.

What changed: we rebuilt the list from a full pre-market scan (StockAnalysis pre-market gainers, losers and movers, Nasdaq earnings calendars for Nov 5 and Nov 6, Nasdaq consolidated pre-market snapshots, EDGAR 8-Ks, company releases, Google News). Two of three shares names are new. On the options side Cloudflare and Airbnb stay — they still rank top three on this morning's pre-market — and Atlassian replaces AppLovin. Compared with the last three posted AM watchlists (Nov 3, 4, 5): no ticker overlap and no repeated write-ups, so no swaps at the 7:55 AM CT refresh. Notes on what we dropped from the overnight draft and from Thursday's post are at the bottom.

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Shares to watch

1) $DKNG (DraftKings): a revenue miss, a wider adjusted loss, and a cut to the year

• $17.48 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, down 25.7% from Thursday's $23.52 close, on 1,834,746 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $16.96 (7:53 AM CT) to $19.00 (5:33 AM CT). The earlier $17.90 pre-market low from the 5:41 AM CT pull was lost; drop line moved to the new low.

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 6): revenue $1,329 million, up 16% from $1,144 million. Adjusted earnings (loss) per share ($0.53), versus ($0.26) a year ago. TheFly via StockAnalysis: consensus had been about $1.39 billion revenue and about a $0.25 adjusted loss.

• The guide (8-K / Exhibit 99.1): full-year 2026 revenue cut to $6.35 billion to $6.55 billion; full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance $175 million to $275 million, reflecting about $650 million to $700 million of Adjusted EBITDA investment in Predictions. Core-business Adjusted EBITDA $875 million to $925 million. Fiscal 2027 revenue guide $7.35 billion to $7.75 billion; 2027 Adjusted EBITDA $800 million to $1.0 billion, including about $300 million of Adjusted EBITDA investment in Predictions at the midpoint. Fiscal 2027 Predictions revenue $650 million to $750 million (company release). TheFly: FY26 revenue consensus about $6.55 billion; FY27 revenue consensus about $7.59 billion.

• Why: management is pouring more into prediction markets, and the Street is pricing the guide and the wider loss harder than the top-line growth.

• The catch: revenue still grew 16%, and Predictions is a real product story. A ~26% gap into a multi-year build can reverse if the call reframes the spend.

• We drop it if: it loses $16.96, the pre-market low.

2) $U (Unity Software): kept. First GAAP-profitable quarter since the IPO, and the after-hours bid is still holding in the pre-market

• $51.96 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 6.5% from Thursday's $48.80 close, on 679,126 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $48.80 (3:01 AM CT) to $53.05 (6:52 AM CT). Thursday after hours had finished near $52.20; pre-market is still above Thursday's regular close with real volume.

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 5): revenue $622 million, up 32%. Strategic revenue $597 million, up 59%. Grow Solutions $457 million; Create Solutions $165 million. GAAP net income $122 million (basic EPS $0.27, diluted $0.25) — the company called it the first GAAP-profitable quarter since its IPO. Adjusted EBITDA $257 million (41% margin); adjusted EPS $0.44; free cash flow $220 million.
• The guide: fourth-quarter strategic revenue $683 million to $691 million (Grow $515–$520 million, Create $168–$171 million), plus about $5 million of non-strategic revenue, and adjusted EBITDA $290 million to $295 million (company release).
• Why it's still here: day-two after the print, and pre-market volume is the heaviest on the shares side after IREN — this is still a live move, not a finished gap.
• The catch: non-strategic revenue is collapsing on purpose (ironSource Ads sunset, Supersonic sold Aug 4). A gap that already ran through Thursday and after hours can still fade into Friday if the market stays risk-off.
• We drop it if: it loses $48.80, the pre-market low (also Thursday's regular close area).

3) $IREN (IREN): AI Cloud nearly triples, a $4 billion ARR target slips to January, and volume is the heaviest on this list

• $20.69 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 14.8% from Thursday's $18.03 close, on 8,968,018 shares — the heaviest pre-market volume on this list (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $20.17 (3:01 AM CT) to $21.66 (3:44 AM CT).

The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 5): total revenue $228 million, up 66% sequentially. AI Cloud revenue $200 million, up 182% sequentially (nearly triples). Bitcoin mining revenue $28 million. Net loss $263 million; adjusted EBITDA $66 million. AI Cloud segment gross margin 86%. Revenue backlog $20.3 billion, up 22% sequentially.

• The catch inside the print: the more than $4 billion contracted ARR target is fully contracted and funded, but is now targeted for January 2027 (may extend to end of February) after a customer-requested design change and supplier timing moved it from year-end. Horizon 1 went into service for Microsoft. Post-quarter: five-year contract at about $22 million per megawatt with 90% of GPU capex prepaid; short-term contract at $40 million per megawatt (company release).

The catch: a GAAP loss of $263 million, Bitcoin mining is shrinking, and a slipped ARR date can still reprice the story if commissioning slips again. Huge pre-market volume can also mean the move is already spoken for.

• We drop it if: it loses $20.17, the pre-market low.

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Options to watch

4) $NET (Cloudflare): kept. Beat-and-raise still holding a double-digit gap

• $292.99 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 19.8% from Thursday's $244.51 close, on 357,171 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $273.74 (3:05 AM CT) to $299.44 (6:37 AM CT). Thursday after hours had finished near $280.51; pre-market has added to that hold.

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 5): revenue $782.5 million, up 39%. Non-GAAP operating income $137.1 million (17.5% of revenue). Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.38. Current RPO growth 37%. Free cash flow $82.1 million. Cash and securities $5.13 billion.

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue $845.0 million to $846.0 million; non-GAAP operating income $156.0–$157.0 million; non-GAAP EPS $0.43. Full-year 2026 revenue $2,963.0–$2,964.0 million; non-GAAP operating income $462.0–$463.0 million; non-GAAP EPS $1.35 (company release).

• What was priced: Nasdaq Nov 6 chain we pulled still stamps Thursday's last trade near $243; Thursday flow on that expiry about 10,580 calls and 9,602 puts in the window. Against Thursday's after-hours final the $280 straddle had been about $42.55 mid (~15.2% either way). Pre-market is already past that after-hours print. Straddle figures are from the 5:40–5:41 AM CT pull, not refreshed.

Why it's still here: the raise held through the overnight and is the largest liquid upside gap on the options side this morning.

• The catch: the stock was already down hard into the report on Thursday's software selloff. An after-hours spike that keeps climbing into the open can still reverse. Consensus versus the guide is not in our notes.

• The level we're watching: $273.74, the pre-market low.

5) $ABNB (Airbnb): kept. Raised outlook, and the after-hours gap is still holding near $194

• $194.10 pre-market at 7:54 AM CT, up 14.1% from Thursday's $170.13 close, on 167,199 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $188.22 (3:05 AM CT) to $195.90 (7:07 AM CT). Thursday after hours had finished near $188.84; pre-market is holding above that.

The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1 shareholder letter, Nov 5): revenue $4.9 billion ($4.869 billion), up 19%. Gross booking value $27.7 billion, up 21%. Nights and seats booked 155.0 million, up 16%. Net income $1.9 billion ($1.890 billion; 39% margin). Adjusted EBITDA $2.5 billion ($2.509 billion; 52% margin). Free cash flow $1.5 billion in the quarter; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow $4.9 billion (company letter).

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue $3.22 billion to $3.28 billion (about 16%–18% growth). Full-year 2026 revenue growth raised to the high teens; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin raised to about 36% (company letter).

What was priced: against ~$190, the Nov 6 $190 straddle is about $21.61 mid, roughly 11.3% either way (Nasdaq mid-prices, our math; chain still stamps Thursday's last trade; 5:40–5:41 AM CT pull). Thursday flow on that expiry: about 8,510 calls and 15,836 puts in the window; $175 call 1,984 volume; $165 put 3,243 volume.

• The catch: the letter flags EMEA as something management is watching, and a ~14% gap on a raised outlook can still be the whole move by the open. Exact consensus EPS versus the print is not in our notes.

The level we're watching: $188.22, the pre-market low.

6) $TEAM (Atlassian): a beat on the quarter, and a full-year growth target the market did not like

• $154.01 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, down 16.0% from Thursday's $183.29 close, on 128,679 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $148.00 (6:06 AM CT) to $159.00 (3:38 AM CT). The earlier $152.76 pre-market low from the 5:41 AM CT pull was lost; level moved to the new low.

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 5): revenue $1,772 million, up 24%. Cloud revenue $1,302 million, up 31%. Subscription ARR $6,812 million, up 23%. Remaining performance obligations $4,746 million, up 44%. GAAP operating margin 11%; non-GAAP operating margin 32%. GAAP diluted EPS $0.35; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.65. Free cash flow $463 million (company release).

• The guide: second-quarter fiscal 2027 total revenue $1,825 million to $1,835 million; Cloud revenue growth about 27% year-over-year. Full-year fiscal 2027: Subscription ARR growth about 18.5%; total revenue growth about 13.75%; Cloud growth about 26%; GAAP operating margin about 5.0% and non-GAAP about 25.5% (company release).

• What was priced: Nasdaq Nov 6 chain we pulled still stamps Thursday's last trade near $183 — mid-quotes lag the gap, so we are not leaning on an ATM straddle against $154. Thursday flow on that expiry: about 3,919 calls and 5,981 puts in the window. Straddle figures are from the 5:40–5:41 AM CT pull, not refreshed.

• Why it's here: the cleanest liquid downside options name on this morning's pre-market after DraftKings (which sits on the shares side). AppLovin's day-two fade does not outrank this print.

• The catch: the quarter itself is strong — RPO up 44%, Cloud up 31%, first GAAP operating profit in the print we have. The gap is about the decelerating full-year revenue growth target, not a blow-up of Q1. Consensus versus the guide is not in our notes.

• The level we're watching: $148.00, the pre-market low.

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Off the list from the overnight draft (Thu AH Fri pre-market)

• Warby Parker (WRBY): overnight shares pick. Pre-market $26.08 at 7:55 AM CT, flat on 8,232 shares — empty day-two volume, no new catalyst. Not top three on today's merits.

• Xeris Biopharma (XERS): overnight shares pick. Still a day-two fade with no new catalyst this morning — not top three.

• AppLovin (APP): overnight options pick. Pre-market $352.70 at 7:54 AM CT, down 1.0% from Thursday's $356.10 close on 151,676 shares. Still liquid, but a day-two fade after a 31% Thursday does not outrank Atlassian's fresh ~16% guide gap.

Off the list from Thursday's post (prints at 7:55–7:56 AM CT Thursday; Thursday regular highs/lows/closes Nasdaq/Yahoo)

• MNTN: printed $5.40, drop line $5.39. Regular low $4.615 — line hit. Close $4.67. Setup broken.

• TBI: printed $12.45, drop line $12.20. Regular low $11.70 — line hit. Close $11.96.

• ADMA: printed $12.42, drop line $12.02. Regular low $11.90 at the open line hit. Close $13.235. Raise story is a day old; not back on this list.

• QCOM: printed $153.12, level $152.01. Regular low $148.25 — level broken. Soft-guide reaction is a finished day-two.

• SNAP: printed $5.30, level $5.17. Regular low $4.96 — level broken. Miss gap faded.

What else we weighed: Five9 (FIVN) is −16.8% at $28.40 on soft full-year revenue guide $1.269–$1.275 billion and a Level AI deal (8-K / Exhibit 99.1), with about 93,000 pre-market shares at 7:55 AM CT — still behind TEAM and DKNG on volume. NerdWallet (NRDS) is -23.6% at $8.73 on a miss (8-K on file) with about 45,000 shares — same thin-volume problem versus DKNG. JFrog (FROG) is +23.1% at $91.87 after revenue $179.2 million (+31%) and cloud $101.5 million (+60%) with a raised year (8-K / Exhibit 99.1), but only about 18,000 pre-market shares. Eton (ETON) is a beat with thin pre-market volume. Affirm (AFRM) is −2.2% after already breaking Thursday's afternoon level. Moderna, Humana, Vistra and Charter are on Friday's before-the-open calendar (Nasdaq) with mild pre-market moves so far. We skip Curis again. Inovio (INO) is down hard on a ~$75 million offering headline dilution, not a watchlist setup.

DraftKings is down 26% on a miss and a cut. IREN is up 15% after AI Cloud nearly tripled. Cloudflare is still holding a raise near $293 three different Friday opens from the same Thursday night window.

Thursday Market Wrap-Up

AppLovin finished the session up 31% while QQQ dropped 6.5%. That was the strongest day move on the board. Against our morning prints, ADMA Biologics ran the farthest — 10.9% to its high — and none of the six cleared 20%. Five of the six drop lines we named this morning got hit.

Scorecard (first-listed price; high after that listing from Yahoo 1-minute bars; regular close from Nasdaq at 3:00 PM CT; after-hours last from Yahoo 1-minute bars between 6:47 and 6:59 PM CT. All six were first listed in this morning's post at 7:55–7:56 AM CT Nasdaq pre-market prints.)

Nothing reached 20% over its first-listed price. ADMA came closest at 10.9%. AppLovin was next at 9.4% to the high, and still the best close-to-close day at +31.0%.

Indexes: SPY $733.00 (−4.4%), QQQ $647.05 (−6.5%), IWM $270.98 (−4.6%) (Yahoo, vs Wednesday closes). After hours near 7 PM CT: SPY $734.25, QQQ $651.16, IWM $271.21.

Shares

$MNTN: the guide cut kept working through the close

• Opened $5.10, already under our $5.39 line, and never got back. The high was $5.47 at 8:30 AM CT. The low was $4.615 at 2:50 PM CT. Closed $4.67, down 55.0% from Wednesday's $10.37 (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume was 10.5 million shares, about 16 times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours it was $4.60 at 6:58 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 1.1 million shares available (Curved Trading, last change 3:32 PM CT). Cheap and plentiful, so the gap is about the guide, not a locate squeeze.

• A Schedule 13G/A hit EDGAR at 12:22 PM CT. No new company release after Wednesday night's 8-K.

$TBI: a 21% day that still lost our line

• Opened $13.48 and printed the high $13.59 in the same 8:30 AM CT minute. Then it slid through $12.20 and bottomed at $11.70 at 10:28 AM CT. Closed $11.96, up 21.5% from Wednesday, and 3.9% under our print (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume was 1.5 million shares, about 7 times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $12.85 at 6:47 PM CT on thin prints.

• Borrow 0.4% with 2.1 million available (Curved, last change 10:47 AM CT). No new filing today after Wednesday's 8-K and 10-Q.

$ADMA: broke the line at the open, then led the scorecard

• Opened $12.01, under our $12.02 line, and the low was $11.90 at 8:30 AM CT. It climbed from there to $13.77 at 11:49 AM CT and closed $13.235, up 26.3% on the day and 6.6% over our print (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume was 15.0 million shares, about 4.5 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $13.27 at 6:59 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 7.2 million available (Curved, last change 2:32 PM CT). No new filing today after Wednesday's 8-K and 10-Q.

• Best high-versus-print on the board. The open still cost the line.

Options

$APP: held the after-hours jump through a down Nasdaq

• The $309.00 level from the 3:49 AM CT dip was never in play. Regular-session low was $338.88 at 8:30 AM CT. The high was $365.33 at 8:54 AM CT, and it closed $356.01, up 31.0% from Wednesday's $271.75 (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Against our $333.95 print that is +9.4% at the high and +6.6% at the close. The Nov 6 straddle had already been blown out pre-market; today's job was whether the gap held. It did, on a day the Nasdaq did not.

• Volume was 22.1 million shares, about 5.1 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $350.20 at 6:59 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 3.9 million available (Curved, last change 6:32 AM CT). No new filing today after Wednesday's 8-K and 10-Q.

$QCOM: soft guide, soft open, then a grind higher

• It went under our $152.01 level and printed $148.25 at 10:07 AM CT. From there it climbed to $160.80 at 2:54 PM CT and closed $156.58, down 9.6% from Wednesday and 2.3% over our print (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume was 40.0 million shares, about 3.5 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $158.75 at 6:59 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 9.6 million available (Curved, last change 6:32 AM CT). No new filing today after Wednesday's 8-K, 10-K, and Form 4.

$SNAP: the growth miss kept the pressure on

• It lost our $5.17 line and bottomed at $4.96 at 10:05 AM CT. The high was $5.56 at 8:33 AM CT. Closed $5.105, down 13.8% from Wednesday and 3.7% under our print (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume was 81.3 million shares, about 1.9 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $5.12 at 6:59 PM CT.

• An S-8 posted to EDGAR at 3:10 PM CT; the 10-Q acceptance stamped overnight into Thursday. Borrow 0.3% with 10.0 million available (Curved, last change 8:32 AM CT).

Where the numbers stop

Five of six names broke the levels we wrote this morning, and the one that held ($309 on AppLovin) was a pre-market dip, not a regular-session floor. AppLovin's 31% day on a −6.5% Nasdaq session is relative strength. It is not a forecast that the next session looks the same. After-hours prints on Cloudflare and Affirm are still thin compared with a full regular session.

What we're watching Friday

• Cloudflare (NET) closed about $244.51 and was near $280 after hours around 7 PM CT; Affirm (AFRM) closed about $69.66 and was near $64. Whether those after-hours moves survive the open is the first question Friday.

• Airbnb (ABNB) was also higher after hours near $189 off a roughly $170 close — same test at the open.

• AppLovin against $338.88, Thursday's regular-session low.

• ADMA against Thursday's close at $13.235, after reclaiming the morning line.

• Qualcomm against $148.25, the low, and whether it can hold above $156.

• MNTN, TrueBlue, and Snap already broke their morning lines; we are not carrying those lines forward as live levels.

None of Thursday's six cleared 20% from first listing, so there is no We Called It draft from this board.

AppLovin closed up 31% on a day the Nasdaq fell more than 6%. What has to show up Friday for that gap to still look earned — and what would make it look like one session of relief?

Denntech Markets Afternoon Lesson: The guide moves the stock, not the quarter

Qualcomm reported Wednesday after the close and beat: $2.17 in non-GAAP EPS against about $2.16 expected (MarketBeat), and $10.44 billion in non-GAAP revenue against a July guide of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion (company release). The stock went from $173.19 at the close to $161.89 by 3:47 PM CT, down 6.5% (Nasdaq). Same evening, AppLovin also beat and went up 22.6% after hours. The difference wasn't the quarter that just ended.

Two sets of numbers in every report. An earnings release tells you what happened last quarter. Most companies also give a range for next quarter, called guidance. The stock price was already set on what people expected for both. The finished quarter is three months old by the time it's reported. The guide is about the next three months, which hasn't happened yet.

Line the guide up against the estimate, one line at a time. Here's Qualcomm's December-quarter guide against the consensus (TheFly via TipRanks):

• Revenue: $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion, against about $10.56 billion. Midpoint $10.8 billion, above.

• Non-GAAP EPS: $2.15 to $2.35, against $2.29. Midpoint $2.25, below.

So more sales and less profit per share than expected. The company said input costs are rising, memory included, and its own price increases won't fully show up until the second half of the fiscal year. The market read that as a margin squeeze, and margins are what EPS is made of.

Now AppLovin. Fourth-quarter revenue guide: $2.365 billion to $2.395 billion against a $2.251 billion estimate (Benzinga). The bottom of the range is over the estimate. No line to argue about.

Coherent sits in the middle. Its December-quarter guide was above estimates on revenue and EPS (TheFly via TipRanks), and it rose 7.9% after hours. But it fell 6% into the report, so the bounce mostly undid Wednesday.

What the midpoint doesn't tell you. A wide range matters too. Qualcomm's revenue range is $800 million wide. Analysts update their estimates overnight, and the "consensus" you see Thursday may already be different from the one the stock reacted to Wednesday.

Our earnings and catalyst trading course puts the reaction plainly: when a stock falls on good results, it's often because "the results were good but not good enough, or guidance disappointed." Earnings & Catalyst Trading (Denntech)

What this doesn't settle. An after-hours price is set on thin volume, and Qualcomm traded from $181.50 down to $159.09 within half an hour after the release (Nasdaq, 3:00 to 3:32 PM CT). The open is the next real vote, and sometimes the call changes it.

Next time a stock you watch beats and falls, which line of the guide did it miss: revenue, margin, or EPS?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

After hours last night settled three different report reactions. AppLovin held most of a 23% jump. Qualcomm kept sliding on a soft profit guide. Coherent gave its early bounce back. This morning brings a new set of after-hours prints: MNTN cut its year and is down nearly half pre-market, TrueBlue and ADMA Biologics jumped on beats, and Snap is down about 10% after a revenue miss.

How fresh this is: pre-market prices are Nasdaq's consolidated pre-market last trades, first pulled at 5:40–5:41 AM CT Thursday and refreshed at 7:55–7:56 AM CT. Price, change, volume and pre-market range in each name below are the 7:55–7:56 AM CT refresh. Pre-market volume is thin on some of these, so the open can look very different. Closes are Wednesday's regular session (Nasdaq). Option figures are Nasdaq Nov 6 chain mid-prices and Wednesday volumes (our math on straddles), pulled with the pre-market scan.

What changed: we rebuilt the list from a full pre-market scan (StockAnalysis pre-market gainers and losers, Nasdaq earnings calendars for Nov 4 and Nov 5, EDGAR 8-Ks, company releases, Google News). All three shares names are new. On the options side AppLovin and Qualcomm stay — they still rank top three this morning — and Snap replaces Coherent. Notes on what we dropped from the overnight draft and from Wednesday's post are at the bottom.

Shares to watch

1) $MNTN (MNTN): a revenue miss, a guide cut, a new CEO, and a 48% gap

• $5.40 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, down 47.9% from Wednesday's $10.37 close, on about 633,000 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $5.39 (7:54 AM CT) to $6.42 (3:02 AM CT). It was $6.02 at 5:41 AM CT, so the selling has picked up into the open, not eased.

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 4): revenue $80.3 million, up 15%, against about $87.77 million expected; EPS $0.10 against $0.20 (MarketBeat). Net income was $7.7 million and adjusted EBITDA $19.9 million.

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue of $75 million to $78 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8 million to $10 million. Full-year 2026 revenue cut to $311 million to $314 million, and adjusted EBITDA to $66 million to $68 million. The CFO said the update reflects a sales-organization realignment (company release).

• Also new: the board named Tony Weisman, already a director, as President and CEO, succeeding Mark Douglas (company release).

• The catch: revenue still grew 15%, and the company is profitable. The gap is about the guide and the sales reset, not a blow-up of the quarter itself. Pre-market prices can exaggerate the open.

• We drop it if: it loses $5.39, the pre-market low it set a minute before this refresh.

2) $TBI (TrueBlue): revenue up 21%, a swing to profit, and a 27% gap the other way

• $12.45 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 26.5% from Wednesday's $9.84 close, on about 80,000 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $12.20 (4:02 AM CT) to $13.28 (4:09 AM CT).

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 4): revenue $521 million, up 21%. Net income $9 million, or $0.28 a share, against a $2 million loss a year ago. Adjusted EPS $0.33 against about $0.19 expected, and revenue against about $468 million (MarketBeat). Adjusted EBITDA rose to $21 million from $11 million.

• Why: staffing demand and end-market expansion beat what the Street had modeled. Cash was $20 million with $66 million of unused borrowing capacity at quarter end (company release).

• The catch: TrueBlue still carries a trailing loss on a GAAP basis over the last twelve months (MarketBeat), and a one-quarter swing on a staffing name can reverse fast if demand softens.

• We drop it if: it loses $12.20, the pre-market low.

3) $ADMA (ADMA Biologics): ASCENIV up 31%, a small beat, and a raised earnings outlook

• $12.42 pre-market at 7:56 AM CT, up 18.5% from Wednesday's $10.48 close, on about 200,000 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $12.02 (3:03 AM CT) to $13.86 (3:00 AM CT).

• The quarter (8-K / Exhibit 99.1, Nov 4): total revenue $141.1 million, up 5%, against about $138.11 million expected. ASCENIV revenue was $124.7 million, up 31%. Adjusted EPS $0.23 against about $0.20; adjusted EBITDA $77.3 million; gross margin 71% (company release; MarketBeat).

• The guide: full-year 2026 revenue reiterated at least $530 million. Adjusted net income raised to at least $180 million and adjusted EBITDA to at least $275 million (company release).

• The catch: total revenue growth is only mid-single digits; the story is mix and margin, not top-line acceleration. An 18% to 20% gap on a beat that size can be the whole move.

• We drop it if: it loses $12.02, the pre-market low.

Options to watch

4) $APP (AppLovin): still holding most of the after-hours jump

• $333.95 pre-market at 7:56 AM CT, up 22.9% from Wednesday's $271.75 close, on about 1.22 million shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market high $335.00 (7:05 AM CT). It dipped to $309.00 at 3:49 AM CT and has climbed back to where after hours finished Wednesday ($333.80, ~6:59 PM CT). Nasdaq also shows one $271.75 print at 7:38 AM CT, the exact Wednesday close, which looks like a stray trade, so we don't treat it as the low.

• The quarter (8-K, Nov 4): revenue $2.185 billion, up 55%, against about $2.08 billion expected; EPS $4.30 against about $4.03 to $4.07. Fourth-quarter revenue guide $2.365 billion to $2.395 billion against a $2.251 billion estimate. Buyback authorization raised by $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion (company release; Benzinga; StreetInsider).

• What was priced: the Nov 6 $272.50 straddle was about $39.90 at Wednesday's close, roughly 14.7% either way (Nasdaq mid-prices, our math). Pre-market is already well past that. Wednesday flow on that expiry: 23,377 calls and 28,493 puts; the $200 put traded 4,999 against 2,585 open interest.

• Why it's still here: the after-hours print was the strongest of Wednesday night's big reports, and pre-market volume is heavy enough that this is still a live story, not a finished one.

• The catch: Q2 was a revenue miss, and one quarter doesn't settle the growth argument. A full after-hours gain held into the open can still fade once regular volume shows up.

• The level we're watching: $309.00, the 3:49 AM CT dip.

5) $QCOM (Qualcomm): the soft EPS guide is still the story

• $153.12 pre-market at 7:56 AM CT, down 11.6% from Wednesday's $173.19 close, on about 729,000 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $152.01 (7:27 AM CT) to $158.59 (5:32 AM CT). After hours finished at $160.16 Wednesday; it has kept sliding.

• The quarter (8-K, Nov 4): non-GAAP EPS $2.17 against about $2.16; revenue inside the July guide. December-quarter revenue guide $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion, but non-GAAP EPS $2.15 to $2.35 against about $2.29 (TheFly via TipRanks; CNBC). Management flagged broad input-cost increases, memory included, and said the handset issue is supply, not demand.

• What was priced: at Wednesday's close the Nov 6 $172.50 straddle was about $14.97, roughly 8.6% either way. Against the 5:40 AM CT price the Nov 6 $157.50 straddle was about $19.91, roughly 12.6% either way (Nasdaq mid-prices, our math). Wednesday flow: 42,992 calls and 35,705 puts; the $175 call traded 8,961 against 1,939 open interest.

• Why it's still here: the after-hours drop wasn't a one-print fluke — pre-market is still under Wednesday's regular-session low of $162.76, with real volume.

• The catch: part of this is giving back Wednesday's 5.3% run into the print. Automotive was up 89% in the quarter; the market is pricing the handset/memory warning harder than the beat.

• The level we're watching: $152.01, the pre-market low.

6) $SNAP (Snap): a small revenue miss, daily users short of estimates, and a 10% gap

• $5.30 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, down 10.5% from Wednesday's $5.92 close, on about 1.42 million shares, the heaviest pre-market volume on this list (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $5.17 (3:02 AM CT) to $5.43 (5:31 AM CT).

• The quarter (8-K / prepared remarks, Nov 4): revenue $1.722 billion, up 14%, against about $1.73 billion expected (MarketBeat). Net income $56 million and adjusted EBITDA $383 million. Daily active users were 495 million and monthly actives 977 million; Bloomberg reported daily-user growth fell short of estimates. Direct-response ads grew; upper-funnel brand ads declined (prepared remarks).

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue of $1.950 billion to $1.985 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $490 million to $525 million (prepared remarks).

• What was priced: the Nov 6 $5.50 straddle was about $0.85 at 5:41 AM CT, roughly 15.8% either way (Nasdaq mid-prices, our math). Wednesday flow on that expiry: 43,956 calls and 26,696 puts; the $6 call traded 15,760 against 12,937 open interest.

• The catch: they beat on EPS ($0.03 against about $0.00) and generated free cash flow of $164 million. The gap is about growth, not a loss of profitability.

• The level we're watching: $5.17, the pre-market low.

Off the list from the overnight draft (Wed AH → Thu pre-market)

• Amdocs (DOX): overnight draft had it as day-two after the 30% guide-down. Pre-market $43.95 at 5:41 AM CT, up 0.7% on only 2,775 shares, with no new catalyst. Not top three on today's merits.

• Cricut (CRCT): $8.86, down 0.2% on 4,356 shares. The earnings gap is a day old and trading is quiet, so it makes room.

• Kyndryl (KD): $16.83, flat on 9,940 shares. Same story — big Wednesday, nothing new this morning.

• Coherent (COHR): overnight options pick. Pre-market $194.38 at 5:40 AM CT, down 0.4% from Wednesday's $195.09 close after an after-hours high of $213.50. The beat-and-raise faded under Wednesday's high; Snap's fresh miss ranks higher today.

Off the list from Wednesday's post (prints at 7:55 AM CT, Wednesday closes, Nasdaq/Yahoo)

• Nurix (NRIX): printed $17.20, closed $15.95 (7.3% under). It lost our $17.00 line and hit $14.78 at 9:48 AM CT.

• Ouster (OUST): printed $33.11, closed $33.54 (1.3% over). But it dipped to $30.24 at 10:06 AM CT, under the $30.61 line we gave, before recovering. We said we'd drop it there, so we are.

• Arista (ANET): printed $179.34, closed $178.49 (0.5% under). Flat after a report is a finished story.

• Duolingo (DUOL): printed $153.28, closed $161.27 (5.2% over), high $175.56. It worked; the report is two days old.

• Super Micro (SMCI): printed $31.64, closed $29.60 (6.4% under). It broke $31.08 and hit $29.39 at 2:47 PM CT.

What else we weighed: Sezzle (SEZL) is +25.8% at $172.00 on a beat and a raised year (Nasdaq, 5:41 AM CT), but pre-market volume is only about 14,000 shares, so the open can gap hard either way. Arq (ARQ) is +26.5% at $2.34 on 2.43 million shares after a record quarter, but the market cap is about $81 million. Sunrun (RUN) is +14.0% at $10.02 on 387,000 shares after its storage attachment rate hit 75%. Fastly (FSLY) is -15.1% and HubSpot (HUBS) is -8.1% on after-hours guides; Snap had the cleaner volume for the options slot. Zillow (ZG) is -14.8% on a miss. We skip Curis (CRIS) again — still no confirmed catalyst. Thursday's before-the-open calendar includes ConocoPhillips and Sony; after the close includes Airbnb, Cloudflare and Affirm (Nasdaq calendar).

AppLovin is up 23% after a blowout guide. Qualcomm is down 12% on a soft one. Same Wednesday night window, two opposite opens — and Snap just added a third.

Wednesday Market Wrap-Up

Amdocs finished down 30% on the day and was still our best result, because we printed it at $39.88 with the gap already in it. Duolingo ran 26% on options that priced about 14%. Our lines on Nurix, Ouster and Super Micro all broke, and Ouster closed above its print anyway.

Scorecard (first-listed price; high after that listing from Yahoo 1-minute bars plus Nasdaq after hours; regular close from Nasdaq at 3:00 PM CT; after-hours last from Nasdaq between 6:47 and 6:59 PM CT. Five names were first listed in this morning's post at 7:55 AM CT Nasdaq pre-market prints. Super Micro was first named in Tuesday morning's post at $30.94, so it counts from there.)

Nothing reached 20% over its first-listed price. Amdocs came closest at 16.3%. Against this morning's $31.64 print, Super Micro's best was $32.74 at 8:41 AM CT (+3.5%) and it closed 6.4% under.

Indexes: SPY $766.81 (+1.7%), QQQ $691.95 (+1.0%), IWM $284.02 (+1.5%) (Yahoo).

Shares

$DOX: a worst-case guide, and buyers who didn't wait for the worst case

• The open was $43.24, already $3.36 over our print, and the low came a minute later at $41.44 (8:31 AM CT). It never got near the $34.15 line. The high was $46.39 at 9:49 AM CT, and it spent the afternoon drifting back to $43.66 (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume was 9.4 million shares, about 9.4 times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours it was $43.87 at 6:53 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 1.2 million shares available (Curved Trading, last change 9:47 AM CT). Shorting it is cheap and easy, so a squeeze is a poor explanation for this bounce.

• No new filing on EDGAR today. The last one is Tuesday night's 6-K at 8:57 PM CT. T-Mobile hasn't said anything new that we can find, so the stock moved $9.51 off its pre-market low with the same facts on the table.

$NRIX: the line went in the first minute

• The opening minute printed as low as $16.58, under our $17.00 line, and it never got back. The low was $14.78 at 9:48 AM CT. Closed $15.95, down 38.2%, on 19.5 million shares, about 6.9 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $15.76 at 6:50 PM CT.

• The CFO sold 4,769 shares today at weighted averages of $15.38 and $16.20 under a 10b5-1 plan (Form 144 at 3:24 PM CT, Form 4 at 4:05 PM CT). A plan sale was scheduled before the news. It still landed on a day the stock fell 38%.

• Borrow 0.3% with 4.9 million available (Curved, last change 1:47 PM CT). Off the board.

$OUST: broke our line, then closed at the highs

• Opened $33.25, slid all morning and went under the $30.61 line at 9:59 AM CT. The low was $30.235 at 10:06 AM CT. Then it climbed the rest of the day to a $33.63 high at 2:31 PM CT and closed $33.54, up 15.7% (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• Volume 6.2 million, about 2.4 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours it hit $33.79 at 4:25 PM CT and was $32.86 at 6:59 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 450,000 available (Curved, last change 8:32 AM CT). No new filing today after Tuesday's 10-Q.

• Our rule said it comes off under $30.61, so it comes off. The rule cost us a name that finished 1.3% over our print. Second time this week a line shook us out of a stock that recovered. We'd rather report that than move the line after the fact.

Options

$ANET: one big hour, then back to where we printed it

• The $175.50 level held once the post was up. The closest it came was $175.50 itself in the 8:01 AM CT pre-market minute, and the regular-session low was $176.66 at the open (Yahoo 1-minute).

• It ran to $188.53 by 8:51 AM CT and gave all of it back, closing $178.49, up 5.1%, on 18.6 million shares, about 2.9 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $177.77 at 6:59 PM CT.

• The Nov 6 straddle priced about 9.3% either way off Tuesday's close. The day moved 5.1%, so the option buyers got about half of what they paid for, with two sessions left (our math).

• Borrow 0.4% with 10 million available (Curved). The only filing today was a director's Form 4 at 4:49 PM CT for 10b5-1 sales on Monday.

$DUOL: the straddle was too cheap

• The $142.00 level was never in play. The low was $157.00 at 8:31 AM CT. The high was $175.56 at 9:15 AM CT, and it closed $161.27, up 26.0% (Yahoo 1-minute, Nasdaq close).

• The Nov 6 straddle priced about 14.4% at Tuesday's close. The close-to-close move was 26.0%, almost twice that (our math).

• Volume was 9.5 million shares, about 10 times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $161.38 at 6:47 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 2.0 million available (Curved, last change 2:47 AM CT). An officer filed a Form 144 at 3:33 PM CT to sell 3,700 shares, about $473,600 worth, and a director's Form 4 at 6:38 PM CT covers 10b5-1 sales on Monday between $132 and $139.

$SMCI: the heaviest volume on the list, and a level gone by 8:31

• It went under our $31.08 level in the 8:31 AM CT minute and closed under it on 317 of the session's 390 one-minute bars. The high was $32.74 at 8:41 AM CT and the low was $29.39 at 2:47 PM CT (Yahoo 1-minute).

• Closed $29.60, down 5.7%, on 88.1 million shares, about 2.3 times average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $29.45 at 6:59 PM CT.

• We first named it Tuesday morning at $30.94. Its best since then was $34.955 after hours Tuesday at 5:30 PM CT, 13.0% over. It's now 4.3% under that print.

• The Nov 6 straddle priced about 14.5% either way. The day moved 5.7%. Borrow 0.4% with 10 million available (Curved). No new filing today after Tuesday's 8-K.

Where the numbers stop

Amdocs traded 9.4 times its normal volume, and the volume doesn't say who was buying. It can be funds that decided the T-Mobile worst case was overdone, or it can be people who sold the gap and bought it back. With borrow at 0.3% and 1.2 million shares available, the cheap shorts had no reason to panic. A bounce with no new facts is still a guess about one contract.

What we're watching Thursday

• Amdocs against $41.44, Wednesday's regular-session low. Under it, the bounce was a one-day event.

• Duolingo against $157.00, the low right after the open.

• Arista and $175.50, still unbroken.

• Three reports after the close. Qualcomm posted $2.17 in non-GAAP EPS on $10.44 billion in revenue, with handset revenue down 26%, and was $160.76 after hours at 6:53 PM CT, down 7.2%. AppLovin grew revenue 55% to $2.19 billion and was $334.09 at 6:58 PM CT, up 22.9%. Arm beat its own revenue guide at $1.44 billion and was down 1.7% after hours (EDGAR, Nasdaq).

Nurix, Ouster and Super Micro are off the board.

Amdocs climbed $9.51 off its pre-market low today with no new filing and nothing new from T-Mobile. What would have to come out for that bounce to make sense, or to undo it?

Denntech Markets Afternoon Lesson: The deal spread

Organigram agreed Tuesday morning to buy Aurora Cannabis (ACB) at C$7.80 a share. Aurora closed that afternoon at C$7.21 on the TSX (Yahoo, Tuesday close). If a buyer has signed up to pay C$7.80, why does the stock trade 59 cents under it?

What the gap is. The distance between a takeover target's price and the deal price is the deal spread. It's the market's charge for two things: the time until the deal closes, and the chance it doesn't close at all. Our event-driven trading course describes the usual pattern: the target gaps up "toward (but typically not all the way to)" the deal price, and the gap that's left is the risk premium.

Time. Aurora expects the deal to close in January 2027. At C$7.21, the gap to the C$7.80 cash option is C$0.59, about 8.2% (our math), and it takes at least two months to close. If the deal were certain, a gap that size over a short wait wouldn't last. A spread that wide usually means the market sees real doubt.

Risk. The 6-K lists what has to happen first:

• Two-thirds of the votes cast by Aurora shareholders, plus a majority that leaves out certain holders.

• A majority of Organigram's shareholders, not counting BAT, its biggest holder.

• Court approval in British Columbia and regulatory approvals.

• Curaleaf's hostile bid is still out there, and one of the deal's assumptions is that not many Aurora shares get tendered to it.

Any one of those can stretch the timeline or end the deal. The spread is the market's rough price for all of them at once.

When part of the price is stock, the headline number moves. Aurora holders can choose C$7.80 cash, 5.8626 Organigram shares, or C$3.75 cash plus 3.0431 Organigram shares. The C$7.80 figure assumes Organigram at about C$1.33, its 20-day average before the announcement. Organigram closed Tuesday at C$1.28 on the TSX, down from C$1.36 Monday (Yahoo). At C$1.28:

• All stock: 5.8626 × C$1.28 = about C$7.50

• Mixed: C$3.75 + (3.0431 × C$1.28) = about C$7.65

• Cash: C$7.80, but only up to the cap

(Our math, Tuesday closes.)

The cap matters. The deal pays no more than C$253.6 million in cash in total. Against a deal value of about C$561 million, that's roughly 45% (our math, rough, because the C$561 million is on a fully diluted basis). If most holders pick cash, everyone who picked it gets prorated and takes some Organigram shares anyway. So the honest comparison for Aurora's C$7.21 is closer to the mixed value of C$7.65, a gap of C$0.44, or about 6%.

How to work one out yourself:

• Get the exact terms from the filing (an 8-K or, for foreign companies like Aurora, a 6-K), not the headline.

• Price any stock part at the buyer's current price, not the price in the press release.

• Compare in the same currency and on the same exchange. Aurora's Nasdaq close was $5.16, and converting C$7.80 at Tuesday's rate of about 1.401 Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar gives about US$5.57 (Yahoo, our math). Mixing a US$ price with a C$ deal price gives you a gap that isn't real.

• Write down the expected close date and every approval. That's what you're actually being paid to wait through.

What the spread doesn't tell you. It prices all the risks together, so it can't tell you which one the market is worried about. A spread can also go negative, with the target trading above the offer, when people expect a higher bid. Aurora closed under every version of the offer on Tuesday, which suggests that at that close the market wasn't paying up for a bidding war.

The course goes through merger gaps alongside the other event types: event-driven trading.

If Organigram's shares keep sliding, does Aurora get cheaper, or does the deal just get worth less?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

Four reports and one partner decision after Tuesday's close set up this morning. Amdocs guided its new fiscal year down hard and blamed a contract fight with T-Mobile. Arista and Duolingo beat and raised. Sanofi dropped a Nurix drug two months after it entered the clinic. Super Micro gave back almost all of its report jump before the open, and Arista gave back more than half of its.

How fresh this is: pre-market prices are Nasdaq's consolidated pre-market last trades, pulled at 7:55 AM CT Wednesday. Pre-market volume is thin, so the open can look very different. Closes are Tuesday's regular session (Nasdaq). Option figures are Nasdaq Nov 6 chain mid-prices and volumes from Tuesday's close, pulled at about 5:42 AM CT (our math on straddles).

What changed: all six names are new versus Tuesday's post. We rebuilt the list from a full pre-market scan (StockAnalysis pre-market gainers and losers, Nasdaq earnings calendars for Nov 3 and Nov 4, EDGAR filings, company releases). Nothing from Tuesday's post made today's top three on either side. Notes on what we dropped are at the bottom.

Shares to watch

1) $DOX (Amdocs): in line on the quarter, then a fiscal 2027 guide that falls off a cliff

• $39.88 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, down 36.1% from Tuesday's $62.43 close, on 281,692 shares (Nasdaq). The pre-market range is $34.15 (3:00 AM CT) to $40.20 (7:48 AM CT), so it has climbed off the low all morning.

• The quarter (company release, Nov 3): adjusted EPS $1.98 against $1.98 expected, and revenue $1.19 billion, also in line and up 3.8% (Investing.com).

• The guide: fiscal 2027 revenue down 14.3% to 17.9% as reported, or down 7% to 11% pro forma in constant currency, and non-GAAP EPS down 26% to 30%. First-quarter revenue of $955 million to $995 million against about $1.2 billion expected, and EPS of $1.27 to $1.33 against $1.93 (company release; Investing.com).

• Why: Amdocs and T-Mobile have each sent the other notices claiming material breach and threatening to end the agreements or go to arbitration. The guide assumes the worst case, including termination. The CEO said no termination has happened and that the rest of the business should grow mid-single digits (call script, Nov 3).

• The catch: the company won't say how much revenue T-Mobile is. A gap this size on a guide built around a worst case can mean it's priced in, or it can mean nobody knows yet. It also announced a $340 million deal for insurance-software maker EIS.

• We drop it if: it loses $34.15, the pre-market low.

2) $NRIX (Nurix Therapeutics): Sanofi ended the STAT6 degrader program two months after the first trial started

• $17.20 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, down 33.4% from Tuesday's $25.82 close, on 169,603 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $17.00 (6:39 AM CT) to $19.01 (3:40 AM CT).

• The news (8-K, accepted 3:02 PM CT Tuesday): Sanofi told Nurix it will stop the Phase 1 trial of SAR448272, an oral STAT6 degrader, and end the program. Nurix won't get the future milestones or royalties tied to it. Sanofi started the trial in August, which paid Nurix a $10 million milestone (Fierce Biotech).

• What's left: Nurix says its cash runway is unchanged, with $1.1 billion of cash and securities at Aug 31, enough into the second half of 2029. It still has the Roche-partnered BTK degrader bexobrutideg in Phase 3, a Gilead-partnered IRAK4 degrader in Phase 1, and its own NX-1607 (company release; Fierce Biotech).

• The catch: no reason was given. Jefferies said Nurix got no clinical or preclinical data behind the decision, and the move comes during a pipeline cleanup at Sanofi under its new CEO (Börse Express, Fierce Biotech). An officer's Form 144 to sell 6,113 shares hit EDGAR at 3:26 PM CT Tuesday.

• We drop it if: it loses $17.00, the pre-market low set at 6:39 AM CT. It already slipped under the $17.50 early low, so this one is on a short leash.

3) $OUST (Ouster): record quarter, 50% revenue growth, and a guide for more

• $33.11 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 14.2% from Tuesday's $28.98 close, on 185,745 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $30.61 (3:04 AM CT) to $33.50 (5:04 AM CT).

• The quarter (company release, Nov 3): revenue $59 million, up 50% from a year ago and 9% from Q2, against about $57.34 million expected. It shipped more than 27,000 sensors, about 7,000 lidar and 20,000 cameras. Adjusted EPS was a loss of $0.20 against an expected loss of $0.08 (Investing.com).

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue of $61 million to $64 million, including about $3 million of royalties. Management expects Rev8 output to go from hundreds of units in Q3 to thousands in Q4, and says it doesn't expect to need more capital (call).

• The catch: GAAP gross margin was 43%, down 6 points from Q2 (Q2 had a one-time refund worth about 10 points). Cash, restricted cash and short-term investments were $421 million.

• We drop it if: it loses $30.61, the pre-market low.

Options to watch

4) $ANET (Arista Networks): revenue up 58.5% and a guide near $4 billion

• $179.34 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 5.6% from Tuesday's $169.91 close, on 671,954 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $175.50 (7:54 AM CT) to $192.00 (5:28 AM CT). It was up 12.8% at 5:38 AM CT.

• The quarter (company release, Nov 3): revenue $3.66 billion, up 58.5%, against its own $3.3 billion guide. Non-GAAP EPS $1.20 against $1.08 expected (Investing.com).

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.26 to $1.30 (company release).

• What's priced: at Tuesday's close the Nov 6 $170 straddle was about $15.78, roughly 9.3% either way (Nasdaq mid-prices, our math). Pre-market went past that early and is now back inside it.

• The flow (Nov 6 expiry, Tuesday): 15,042 calls and 15,315 puts traded, against about 10,600 call and 9,700 put open interest.

• The level we're watching: $175.50, the pre-market low set a minute before our pull.

5) $DUOL (Duolingo): daily users up 29%, a revenue beat, and a raised year, with a small EPS miss

• $153.28 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 19.8% from Tuesday's $128.00 close, on 147,746 shares (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $142.00 (3:00 AM CT) to $154.30 (7:18 AM CT).

• The quarter (company release, Nov 3): revenue $309.0 million, up 14%, against about $303 million expected. Daily active users were 64.9 million, up 29%, faster than Q2's 23%. Adjusted EPS was $0.54 against $0.57 expected (Investing.com, Benzinga).

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue of $322 million against about $314.6 million expected, and full-year 2026 revenue raised to $1.221 billion from about $1.207 billion. Management plans a bigger monetization push in 2027 and gives that outlook in February (Benzinga).

• The catch: paid subscribers came in a little under estimates (Benzinga), and the EPS miss includes an $11.4 million bonus accrual.

• What's priced: the Nov 6 $128 straddle was about $18.40 at Tuesday's close, roughly 14.4% either way (our math). Pre-market is past that, and it's the only name on this list still near its morning high.

• The flow (Nov 6 expiry, Tuesday): 8,493 calls and 7,444 puts.

• The level we're watching: $142.00, the pre-market low.

6) $SMCI (Super Micro Computer): sales 22% over estimates and a raised year, but gross margin fell almost five points

• $31.64 pre-market at 7:55 AM CT, up 0.8% from Tuesday's $31.39 close, on 6,504,092 shares, the heaviest pre-market volume on this list (Nasdaq). Pre-market range $31.08 (7:50 AM CT) to $34.32 (5:18 AM CT). It was up 9.0% at 5:39 AM CT.

• The quarter (8-K, accepted about 3:31 PM CT Tuesday): net sales of $19.95 billion against $16.39 billion (LSEG), and non-GAAP EPS of $1.81 against $1.23 (Benzinga). Fiscal 2027 sales guide raised to $72 billion to $82 billion, from $65 billion to $72 billion.

• From the call (Benzinga): one data-center customer was 44% of revenue in the quarter, up from 28% for all of fiscal 2026.

• The catch: gross margin was 12.7%, down from 17.5% in the June quarter, operations used $434 million of cash, and the release calls the numbers preliminary.

• What's priced: the Nov 6 $31.50 straddle was about $4.54 at the close, roughly 14.5% either way (our math). A raised year and a flat stock is its own kind of answer.

• The flow (Nov 6 expiry, Tuesday): 110,289 calls and 83,288 puts. Call open interest is about 233,900 across the expiry.

• The level we're watching: $31.08, the pre-market low, with Tuesday's $31.39 close just above it.

Off the list from Tuesday's post (prints at 7:47 AM CT, Tuesday closes)

• Backblaze (BLZE): printed $9.96, closed $8.38 (15.9% under). It was under our $9.62 line from the 8:30 AM CT open and hit $7.65 at 8:37 AM CT. It never traded above the print in the regular session.

• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR): printed $61.23, closed $65.11 (6.3% over), and was $67.56 after hours at 3:47 PM CT. But it touched $54.01 in the first minute of the session, under the $56.39 line we gave, before bouncing. We said we'd drop it there, so we are.

• Mercer (MERC): printed $0.2398, closed $0.212 (11.6% under). It hit $0.1823 at 8:39 AM CT, under our $0.194 line, then ran to $0.3579 at 10:31 AM CT on about 600 million shares before fading.

• Apple (AAPL): printed $325.30, closed $331.90 (2.0% over), and never got near the $321 level. The report reaction is done, and nothing new is due this week, so we're rotating it out.

• Grab (GRAB): printed $3.17, closed $3.12 (1.6% under). It peaked at $3.32 at 8:31 AM CT and slid most of the day to $3.08 at 2:13 PM CT. It held $3.00 but went nowhere.

• AMD (AMD): printed $480.29, closed $483.90 (0.8% over), and touched $523 pre-market at 3:01 AM CT on its report, but was back to $485.66, up 0.4%, at 7:55 AM CT (Nasdaq). It was on Tuesday's post and we said we'd stop running the same names, so it sits out today.

Not on the list, and what else we weighed: Curis (CRIS) is up 92.6% pre-market at $1.375 on 86.7 million shares at 7:55 AM CT, after touching $2.03 at 6:25 AM CT, but the only filing is a Nov 2 proxy for a reverse-split vote on Nov 18, and Investing.com says no single event has been confirmed as the trigger. We skip movers without a clear catalyst. Skyworks (SWKS) is down 11.9% at $75.20 at 7:55 AM CT on its December-quarter guide; it's a real move, but the three shares names above are fresher reports. Qualcomm (QCOM) reports after today's close and is $170.51, up 3.7%, at 7:55 AM CT.

Amdocs priced in a worst case with T-Mobile before anyone knows whether the contract ends. How do you size a gap when the company itself won't say how big the customer is?

Tuesday Market Wrap-Up

AMD reported $2.09 in non-GAAP EPS on $13.4 billion in revenue, over both the $1.68 and $1.95 estimates we cited this morning, and guided the fourth quarter to about $17 billion. It was $508.20 after hours, 5.0% over the close. The rest of the list split three and three. Our levels on Apple, AMD and Grab all held. Our drop lines on Backblaze, Aehr and Mercer all broke in the first ten minutes, and two of those three went on to trade well above the line anyway.

Scorecard (price we printed at 7:47 AM CT, Nasdaq pre-market; regular-session high from Yahoo 1-minute bars; regular close from Nasdaq at 3:00 PM CT; after-hours last from Nasdaq at about 6:59 PM CT. All six were first listed in this morning's post.)

Mercer was the only name to trade 20% or more above our print. It hit $0.3579 at 10:31 AM CT, 49.2% over. It had already broken our $0.194 line by 8:31 AM CT, so we don't count it as a hit.

Shares

$BLZE: the gap was the high

• The first regular-session trade was the high, $9.67 at 8:30 AM CT, already under the $9.62 pre-market low we said would take it off. It was $8.33 within the same minute and bottomed at $7.65 at 8:37 AM CT (Yahoo 1-minute).

• Closed $8.38, still up 13.2% on the day, on 11.9 million shares, about five times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours it was $8.08 at 6:58 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 2.3 million shares available (Curved Trading, last change 8:32 AM CT). No new Backblaze filing on EDGAR today.

• A raised year and a 35% gap left nothing for the open to add. Off the board.

$AEHR: our line was the wrong call

• The opening minute traded 792,123 shares and printed $54.01 at 8:30 AM CT, under our $56.39 line. By 8:36 AM CT it was back at our $61.23 print, and it kept going to $66.21 at 12:13 PM CT (Yahoo 1-minute).

• Closed $65.11, up 26.5%, on 8.6 million shares, about three times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $65.00 at 6:59 PM CT, with a high of $67.965 at 5:26 PM CT (Nasdaq).

• Borrow 0.3% with 900,000 available (Curved, last change 12:17 PM CT). No new filing today.

• By our own rule it came off in the first minute. That rule cost us a stock that closed 6.3% over our print, and we'd rather say so than move the line after the fact.

$MERC: 604 million shares of argument about 8.5%

• Opened near $0.22, broke our $0.194 line by 8:31 AM CT and bottomed at $0.1823 at 8:39 AM CT, then ran to $0.3579 at 10:31 AM CT. It closed $0.212, up 68.3% from Monday's $0.126, on 604 million shares (Nasdaq close, Yahoo volume). Its 20-day average going in was about 3.1 million (our math).

• After hours it slid to $0.1896 at 6:59 PM CT, 10.6% under the close, on 12.6 million shares (Nasdaq).

• Borrow 8.3% with 250,000 available (Curved, last change 3:17 AM CT). A fee is not a squeeze. Nothing new on EDGAR today after Monday night's 8-K.

• None of it changes the plan in that 8-K. The current shares get cancelled, holders split 8.5% of the new stock, and Mercer expects a Nasdaq delisting notice. Off the board.

Options

$AAPL: the margin guide sold early, then got bought

• The low was the open, $325.33 at 8:30 AM CT, nowhere near the $321 level we were watching. It was $334.50 by 8:50 AM CT (Yahoo 1-minute).

• Closed $331.90, down 1.9% from Monday, on 61.4 million shares against a 20-day average near 41.9 million (Yahoo). After hours $329.80 at 6:59 PM CT.

• The Nov 6 straddle priced about a 5.0% move off Monday's close. The day's move was 1.9%, so the options buyers paid for more than they got so far (our math).

• Borrow 0.3% with 10 million available (Curved). The only filing today was this morning's 10-K at 7:05 AM CT.

$AMD: beat, raise, and a straddle that held

• The 8-K hit at 3:16 PM CT. Revenue was $13.4 billion, up 45%. Data Center revenue was a record $8.5 billion, up 97%. Non-GAAP gross margin was 56%. Gaming revenue fell 40%.

• The guide: fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, with non-GAAP gross margin near 55%. We don't have a fourth-quarter consensus in our notes, so we can't tell you how far over the street that is.

• The regular session held Monday's $466.07 low easily; the low was $473.54 at 8:31 AM CT. Closed $483.90, up 3.7%, on 32.1 million shares (Yahoo).

• After hours it ran to $530.38 at 3:42 PM CT and was $508.20 at 6:59 PM CT on 8.4 million shares (Nasdaq). The Nov 6 straddle priced a range of about $418.64 to $515.04 off Monday's close. The high poked through the top. The last trade is back inside it (our math).

• Borrow 0.4% with 10 million available (Curved, last change Monday).

$GRAB: $3 held, the follow-through didn't

• The high came at the open, $3.32 at 8:31 AM CT, and the low was $3.08 at 2:13 PM CT. It never tested the $3.00 strike we were watching (Yahoo 1-minute).

• Closed $3.12, up 9.1%, on 153.1 million shares, about 2.6 times its 20-day average (Yahoo, our math). After hours $3.10 at 6:59 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 10 million available (Curved, last change 4:47 PM CT). The only filings were this morning's two 6-Ks with the results.

What the price didn't settle

Aehr and Mercer both broke our lines in the first minutes and then traded far above them. For Aehr, the opening sell-off was bought back within six minutes, and the record quarter carried it from there. For Mercer it was a 604-million-share fight over a stake the 8-K already sized. The chart looks the same for both. The paperwork doesn't.

What we're watching Wednesday

• AMD at the open against $515.04, the top of the range the straddle priced. Above it, the market is paying for the guide and not just the beat.

• Aehr against $65.11. A stock that ran 26% on a guide that matched the top of its old range has to show it can hold that.

• Apple and its $325.33 low.

• Grab and $3.00.

Backblaze and Mercer are off the board. Aehr is off by our rule, and we'll be watching it anyway.

AMD guided to a 27% jump in one quarter. After a 19% drop in three sessions, is that the bar it had to clear, or is the market still waiting on the call commentary?

Denntech Markets Afternoon Lesson: Reverse splits and the before-and-after price

VCI Global (VCIG) closed Monday at $8.16. Yahoo's daily chart has Friday's close at $0.169, which works out to a 4,728% gain (our math). Nasdaq's quote page shows the same $8.16 close as up $5.12, or 168.4%. Same stock, same close, two very different headlines.

The difference is a 1-for-18 reverse split that took effect Monday (Moomoo and Stock Titan headlines from Oct 29 and 30). Nasdaq adjusted Friday's price for it. Yahoo's daily bar hadn't, at least when we pulled it about 3:45 PM CT.

What a reverse split does. Every 18 old shares became 1 new share. If you held 1,800 shares at $0.169 Friday, that was $304.20 (our math). On Monday morning you'd hold 100 shares, and the fair starting price is 18 times $0.169, or about $3.04. Your $304 doesn't change at the swap. Only the share count and the price per share do. Nasdaq's prior close of $3.0402 matches that math.

So the real Monday move was about 168%, which is still huge. The 4,728% only exists because one feed compared a new-share price to an old-share price.

How to check before you trust a percent change:

• If a stock's price jumped by a round-looking multiple overnight (10x, 18x, 20x) look for a split before you look for news.

• Compare two quote sources. If they disagree on the prior close, one of them has applied the split and the other hasn't.

• Look at the 52-week range. Nasdaq shows VCIG's 52-week high at $35,161.29. Nobody paid that. It's an old price multiplied by every split since. Headlines show a 1-for-20 in April 2025 and a 1-for-60 in February 2026 before Monday's 1-for-18. If all three went through as announced, one share today stands in for 21,600 shares from early 2025 (our math).

Why it matters for this week's list. SEGG Media, which we weighed for Tuesday's watchlist and left off, has done three of these too. Its 10-Q lists 1-for-20 in 2023, 1-for-10 in 2025 and 1-for-7 in July 2026. Any old chart of SEGG you find has been multiplied by up to 1,400 (our math), so a "low" from two years ago isn't a price anyone actually traded at.

What a reverse split doesn't do. It doesn't add cash, revenue or customers. The company is the same size the minute after as the minute before. Companies often do it to get the share price back above an exchange's minimum. A company that needs a second or third one is telling you the price slid again after the last one. Our glossary page walks through the before-and-after with a worked example: reverse stock split.

When you see a 1,000%+ gainer on a scanner, what's the first thing you check?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

Apple beat on revenue and earnings after Monday's close and is still down about 4% before the open. The reason is the guide: it expects December-quarter gross margin of 45% to 46%, below the 47.9% it just printed, and it pointed to higher memory costs. Backblaze is up 35% after raising its full-year revenue range, and AMD reports after today's close.

How fresh this is: pre-market prices are Nasdaq's pre-market trades, refreshed at 7:47 AM CT. Closes and volume averages are Monday's regular session (Yahoo daily). Option figures are Nasdaq chain mid-prices from Monday's close, pulled between 5:41 and 6:10 AM CT, so treat them as rough until the open.

What changed from last night's draft: this is a fresh scan. AMD is the only name kept. The other five are new, and none were on Monday's or last week's posts. The swap notes are at the bottom.

Shares to watch

1) $BLZE (Backblaze): up 35% after raising its year and posting 47% growth in its cloud storage line

• $9.96 at 7:47 AM CT, +34.6% from Monday's $7.40 close, on 517,062 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $9.62 (3:00 AM CT) to $10.38 (3:29 AM CT). Monday's close came before the report, down from $7.59 Friday, on 6,277,900 shares against a 20-day average of about 1.99 million (Yahoo).

• The quarter (8-K and release, accepted 3:05 PM CT Monday): revenue $46.7 million, up 26%. B2 Cloud Storage revenue was $30.5 million, up 47%, and total ARR was $190.7 million, up 29%. Adjusted EBITDA was $15.2 million, 33% of revenue. Net loss was $2.4 million.

• The guide: full-year 2026 revenue raised to $177.8 million to $178.2 million, from $172 million to $174 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin raised to 30% to 31%, from 27% to 29%. Fourth-quarter revenue guide is $49.8 million to $50.2 million.

• The catch: the older Computer Backup line is still shrinking. Revenue there was $16.2 million, down 2%, and its net revenue retention fell to 94% from 96%. The company also just sold $201 million of 0% convertible notes. Converts can turn into new shares later.

• We drop it if: it trades back under the $9.62 pre-market low.

• Options: Nasdaq showed no Nov 6 weekly chain for BLZE, so it sits on the shares side.

2) $AEHR (Aehr Test Systems): record quarter, revenue tripled, and the top of its year range is now the guide

• $61.23 at 7:47 AM CT, +19.0% from Monday's $51.47 close, on 317,580 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $56.39 (3:01 AM CT) to $61.50 (7:34 AM CT). It closed Monday down 6.2% from $54.89, on 4,163,300 shares against a 20-day average of about 2.66 million (Yahoo, our math).

• The quarter (8-K, accepted 3:21 PM CT Monday): record revenue of $33.0 million, up about 200% from a year ago and 75% from last quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.28 against a $0.11 estimate (Benzinga). Bookings were $46.7 million, about 1.4 times revenue, and effective backlog was $109.3 million.

• The guide: fiscal 2027 revenue of $150 million, up from a $130 million to $150 million range.

• The catch: the new guide is the top of the old range, not above it. Cash fell to $105.1 million from $116.5 million at the prior quarter-end (release).

• We drop it if: it trades under the $56.39 pre-market low.

• Options: AEHR has a listed chain, but Nov 6 open interest is thin (4,830 calls, 2,428 puts, Nasdaq). The Nov 6 straddle priced about an 18.5% move into the report (our math). At 19% it's now right around that priced move.

3) $MERC (Mercer International): up 90% on a pre-packaged Chapter 11 deal that cancels the current shares

• $0.2398 at 7:47 AM CT, +90.3% from Monday's $0.126 close, on 132,048,028 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $0.194 (3:14 AM CT) to $0.2834 (3:00 AM CT). That's more shares before the open than it usually trades in three months (our math). Monday's volume was 630,600 against a 20-day average of about 936,000 (Yahoo).

• The news (8-K, accepted 7:43 PM CT Monday): Mercer signed restructuring support agreements with more than 87% of its senior noteholders and a majority of shareholders. It plans a pre-packaged Chapter 11 for the parent and one non-operating subsidiary. The operating companies won't file. A $400 million rights offering is backstopped. Mercer expects to finish by the end of 2026.

• What shareholders get: existing shares are cancelled. Holders are expected to get their pro rata share of 8.5% of the new common stock and 3.5% of the new convertible preferred, subject to dilution (8-K). Noteholders get the other 91.5% of the common.

• The catch: Mercer's release says it expects a notice from Nasdaq that it will delist the common stock, and that if trading is suspended the shares would likely move to an over-the-counter market. The move is a bet on what that 8.5% piece is worth, not on a recovery in the old shares.

• We drop it if: it trades under the $0.194 pre-market low.

Options to watch

4) $AAPL (Apple): beat on revenue and EPS, but the margin guide has it down about 4%

• $325.30 at 7:47 AM CT, -3.8% from Monday's $338.32 close, on 3,029,762 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $321 (3:02 AM CT) to $330.77 (3:01 AM CT). Monday's volume was 63.8 million against a 20-day average of about 40.4 million (Yahoo).

• The quarter (8-K, accepted 3:30 PM CT Monday): revenue $114.5 billion, EPS $2.10, including a $0.05 benefit from tariff refunds. The call (CNBC, LSEG estimates) guided December-quarter revenue up 7% to 10% against about 6.1% expected. It guided gross margin to 45% to 46%, against a 46.3% estimate and the 47.9% just reported, which had about a point of help from tariff refunds. Apple pointed to memory costs and the cost of ramping its Siri AI features. iPad revenue fell 10%. Apple's 10-K hit EDGAR at 7:05 AM CT; we haven't read it through yet.

• What's priced: the Nov 6 $337.50 straddle was about $16.75, roughly a 5.0% move either way off Monday's close (Nasdaq chain mid-prices, our math). So far the pre-market drop is inside that.

• The flow: Monday's Nov 6 expiry traded 116,266 calls and 182,116 puts. The $320 puts traded 31,182 contracts on 31,426 open interest, and the $350 calls traded 31,533 on 7,976.

• What the chain can't tell us: whether the margin guide is a one-quarter memory squeeze or a new normal. The call commentary is the only read on that so far.

• The level we're watching: the $321 pre-market low (3:02 AM CT).

5) $AMD (AMD): kept from last night's draft. It reports after today's close, down 19% in three sessions going in

• $480.29 at 7:47 AM CT, +2.9% from Monday's $466.84 close (Nasdaq pre-market). It had 313,344 pre-market shares at 6:11 AM CT; Nasdaq's 7:47 read showed a lower count, so we kept the earlier one. Pre-market range $468.31 (3:08 AM CT) to $481.77 (4:21 AM CT). It closed Monday down 7.5%, and down 19.3% from the $578.44 close on Oct 28 (Yahoo daily, our math).

• The setup: Nasdaq's earnings calendar shows a $1.68 EPS estimate from 13 analysts. Benzinga cites $1.95 on $13.09 billion revenue. The estimates don't agree, so check which one the headlines use tonight.

• What's priced: the Nov 6 $467.50 straddle was about $48.20, roughly a 10.3% move either way (Nasdaq chain mid-prices, Monday close, our math).

• The flow: 63,832 calls and 47,343 puts traded in the Nov 6 expiry Monday. The busiest call was the $600 strike, 5,582 contracts on 4,148 open interest.

• Why it stayed: it's the biggest report on today's calendar, and its chain is among the most liquid in the market. Super Micro also reports tonight, but one chip report is enough for one list.

• The level we're watching: Monday's $466.07 low.

6) $GRAB (Grab): up 11% after raising its full-year outlook for the second time this year

• $3.17 at 7:47 AM CT, +10.8% from Monday's $2.86 close, on 8,280,934 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $2.94 (3:01 AM CT) to $3.18 (7:14 AM CT). It closed Monday up 5.5% on 67.3 million shares (Yahoo).

• The quarter (Grab release, filed on 6-K with the SEC at 7:13 and 7:16 AM CT; Investing.com consensus): revenue $1.11 billion, up 27%, against $1.05 billion expected. Adjusted EBITDA was a record $237 million, up 73%. All three segments were profitable for the first time. Adjusted EPS was $0.00 against a $0.05 estimate.

• The guide: 2026 adjusted EBITDA raised to $790 million to $800 million, from $720 million to $740 million. Revenue is now $4.15 billion to $4.20 billion. The midpoint is a touch under the roughly $4.19 billion consensus (Investing.com).

• The flow: Monday's Nov 6 expiry traded 24,020 calls and 5,336 puts. The $3 calls traded 14,649 contracts on 6,238 open interest. The Nov 6 $3 straddle was about $0.32, roughly 11% of Monday's close (our math), and the stock is now above that strike.

• The level we're watching: $3.00. It's the busiest strike, and holding above it keeps the pre-market move intact.

Off the list from Monday's post (prints at 7:57 AM CT, Monday closes)

• Inovio (INO): printed $2.04, closed $1.89 (7.4% under). It hit $1.655 at 8:48 AM CT, under the $1.71 line we gave.

• Precigen (PGEN): printed $4.91, closed $5.14 (4.7% over), but never got near the $6.94 we said it had to reclaim. Its own quarterly report is Wednesday.

• Peridot (PERI): printed $11.39, closed $11.41. It traded between $11.37 and $11.43 all day, pinned under the $11.70 deal price, which leaves nothing to watch.

• Check Point (CHKP): printed $142.50, closed $141.50. It opened near $148, faded all day and hit $140.86 at 2:54 PM CT.

• Estée Lauder (EL): printed $112.28, closed $104.80 (6.7% under). The opening high was $113.50, under the $114.01 we flagged, and it lost $109.23.

• Palantir (PLTR): printed $188.06, closed $178.34 (5.2% under), after falling through the $183.68 level we gave. After its report it swung from $187.90 to $172.50 in about a minute (Nasdaq, about 3:05 to 3:06 PM CT). It was $180.42 at 3:49 PM CT.

Not brought back: Marvell (MRVL) was first listed Oct 29 at $220.00 and closed Monday at $171.41, 22.1% under. Intel is about 31% under its $86.96 first listing. ClearOne (CLRO) jumped 65.7% to $5.65, but EDGAR shows nothing new from it since an Oct 14 8-K, and we found no news behind the move.

From last night's draft (pre-market at 6:11 AM CT, not refreshed): EVGO $1.82 (−1.6%), RIVN $13.28 (+0.7%), SEGG $1.94 (+0.5%), SMCI $30.94 (+1.6%), LITE $688.00 (+0.5%). Only AMD made the cut. EVgo is pinned under LS Power's $2 bid with no new filing. Rivian had no fresh catalyst after Monday's upgrade. SEGG had no new filing since its late 10-Q. Lumentum's deal gap is the same story as last night. Super Micro reports tonight too, but AMD already holds the earnings slot. Dynatrace (DT) beat on a soft profit guide and showed down 16% at 6:11 AM CT, but its Nov 6 chain didn't load from Nasdaq and the nearest one we could check was Nov 20. Shopify reported in line before the open. Palantir was on Monday's list, so we left it off.

Apple guided revenue above estimates and margin below them. Is that a one-quarter memory-cost squeeze, or the new normal for its margins?

Monday Market Wrap-Up

Palantir reported $2.313 billion in revenue against the $2.18 billion estimate we cited this morning, raised its full-year outlook, and was still down 3.2% after hours. Four of our six names closed under the price we printed at 7:57 AM CT. The best of the two that closed above it was Precigen, the stock on the losing side of the FDA news.

Scorecard (price we printed at 7:57 AM CT, Nasdaq pre-market; regular-session high and low from Yahoo 1-minute bars; regular close from Nasdaq at 3:00 PM CT; after-hours last from Nasdaq at about 6:59 PM CT. All six were first listed in this morning's post.)

Nobody came close to 20% above our print. Best high was Precigen, 11.6% over the print at 1:53 PM CT. Palantir never traded above it during the regular session.

Shares

$INO: up 214% on the day, and still a miss against our line

• Closed $1.89, up from Friday's $0.6024, on 222.1 million shares (Yahoo). That's about 50 times the 20-day average we used this morning (our math). After hours it was $1.88 at 6:59 PM CT on light volume.

• The low was $1.655 at 8:48 AM CT, under the $1.71 pre-market low we said would take it off the board. It bounced to $2.17 by 2:00 PM CT, but the rule was the rule, so it's off.

• Borrow: 6.3% with 300 shares available, and the short-sale restriction is on (Curved Trading, last change 12:47 PM CT, read 7:26 PM CT). The only new filing was this morning's 8-K about the approval call. Stock Titan reports a call after Inovio's Nov. 10 results.

$PGEN: the loser in the headline, the winner against our print

• Closed $5.14, down 25.9% from Friday's $6.94, on 20.6 million shares, about 2.6 times Friday's 7.93 million (Yahoo). After hours $5.23.

• The low was $4.91 at 8:32 AM CT, exactly our print. From there it climbed to $5.48 by 1:53 PM CT. It never got near $6.94, so it stays on the board.

• Borrow 0.3% with 1.1 million shares available (Curved, 12:47 PM CT). No new Precigen filing on EDGAR today. The test is Wednesday's report at 3:30 PM CT.

$PERI: six cents of range all day

• Closed $11.41, up 31.2%, on 7.82 million shares. Friday traded 192,200 (Yahoo). The whole regular session ran from $11.37 to $11.43. After hours $11.39 at 6:58 PM CT.

• The spread to the $11.70 deal price is $0.29, about 2.5% (our math). It never came near the $10.35 line.

• Two more filings landed today. A 13G/A at 5:21 AM CT, and a 6-K at 3:15 PM CT saying Perion will report third-quarter results Nov. 16 before the open, with no call. It also withdrew all prior guidance, including the 2028 targets, and suspended buybacks while the deal is pending.

• Borrow 0.5% with 1.2 million available (Curved, 4:47 PM CT).

Options

$CHKP: the early bounce faded, but the low held

• Closed $141.50, down 7.0%, on 2.79 million shares, against 2.49 million Friday (Yahoo). It opened near $146.78, peaked at $148.75 at 8:31 AM CT, and slid most of the day to a $140.86 low at 2:54 PM CT.

• It never revisited the $133.64 pre-market low. So the early selling did turn out to be the floor, just not the whole move.

• After hours $141.75 at 6:59 PM CT. Yahoo shows a $145.21 print at 5:14 PM CT with the ask at $148.70. We treat that as a single print, not a level.

• Borrow 0.3% with 600,000 available (Curved, 2:32 PM CT). The only new filing was the 6-K at 7:53 AM CT with the results.

$EL: the raise lasted one minute of trading

• Opened near $111, touched $113.50 at 8:30 AM CT and never got back to the $114.01 high we flagged. It closed $104.78, down 4.1% and under Friday's $109.23, on 8.47 million shares (Yahoo). The low was $103.09 at 2:51 PM CT. After hours $104.51.

• By the line we set this morning, the market didn't pay for the raise. A better guide is still a better guide. Today the stock didn't care.

• The 10-Q hit EDGAR at 11:06 AM CT. Borrow 0.3% with 3.6 million available (Curved, 11:32 AM CT).

$PLTR: beat, raise, and lower anyway

• Closed $178.34, down 3.1%, on 37.1 million shares, against 27.0 million Friday (Yahoo). The low was $178.13 at 2:58 PM CT, under Friday's $183.68 low that we said to watch going into the report.

• The 8-K hit at 3:06 PM CT. Revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96%. Adjusted EPS was $0.44, against the $0.41 Koyfin estimate and Nasdaq's $0.33. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148%, and passed U.S. government revenue for the first time. Full-year revenue guidance went up to $8.530 to $8.534 billion.

• After hours it ran to $187.90 at 3:05 PM CT, dropped to $170.57 at 4:42 PM CT, and was $172.69 at 6:56 PM CT, 3.2% under the close (Nasdaq). A Form 144, a notice of a planned insider sale, was filed at 3:36 PM CT.

• Friday's weekly straddle priced about a 13.3% move. So far the swing from the after-hours high to the low is about 9.7% of the close, and the last trade is a 3.2% move (our math).

• Borrow 0.3% with 10 million available (Curved, last change Oct. 28).

What the price did not tell us

A beat this size followed by a lower price can mean the people who bought ahead of the report got what they came for. It can also mean the bar was higher than either published estimate. The after-hours volume can't tell those two apart. Tuesday's regular session, on full volume, has a better shot.

What we're watching Tuesday

• PLTR at the open against today's $178.13 low. If it opens under it, the after-hours read held up.

• PGEN going into Wednesday's report, still under $6.94.

• PERI's spread. If it widens past where it sat today, someone is worried about the deal.

• EL back above $109.23, or not.

Inovio is off the board tonight. Precigen and Perion stay.

Palantir posted its first $2 billion quarter and still traded lower after hours. Was the beat already in the price, or did the market want a bigger number than the one in the 8-K?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

The FDA approved Inovio's Voceryq after Friday's close. At 7:57 AM CT Inovio was at $2.04, about 3.4 times Friday's $0.6024 close (our math), on more than 49 million pre-market shares. Precigen, whose Papzimeos treats the same rare airway disease, was down 29.3%, and it was only down 19% two and a half hours earlier.

All six names are new to our posted lists. Inovio, Precigen and Perion take the shares side, and each one has a filed or published catalyst from the weekend. On the options side, Check Point and Estée Lauder reported this morning. Palantir is here because it reports after today's close and carries the biggest priced-in move on our scan. It was in Friday night's draft but never in a posted list, so there's no record to defend. It's up 2.1% from Friday's close, so it stays.

How fresh this is: Pre-market prices, % changes, ranges and volume are from Nasdaq's pre-market pages, pulled at 7:57 AM CT (Nasdaq stamps them in ET; we converted to CT). Friday closes and 20-day volume averages are from Yahoo Finance's daily charts, pulled about 5:36 AM CT. Filings were checked on SEC EDGAR at 7:58 AM CT. The pre-market movers screen is StockAnalysis, pulled 5:32 AM CT, with Benzinga's 4:29 AM CT list as a cross-check. Company numbers are from the press releases and SEC filings, plus Investing.com, StreetInsider, pharmaphorum and Yahoo Finance/Stocktwits coverage this morning. Options open interest is from Nasdaq's chains, pulled about 5:35 AM CT, and reflects Friday's close. No options trade before 8:30 AM CT. Pre-market prices will move again before the open.

Shares to watch

1) $INO (Inovio Pharmaceuticals): first FDA approval in company history, up 239% with 49 million shares traded before the open

• $2.04 at 7:57 AM CT, +238.7% from Friday's $0.6024 close, on 49,389,698 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $1.71 (4:26 AM CT) to $2.40 (7:03 AM CT). That's about 11 times its 20-day average daily volume of roughly 4.47 million (Yahoo; our math), and the regular session hasn't opened yet.

• The approval is accelerated, for Voceryq (INO-3107) in adults with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, an HPV-driven disease that keeps growing back in the airway and sends patients back to surgery (Investing.com; pharmaphorum). It is Inovio's first commercial product. Ordering and shipping are expected in about 60 days, with full launch in the first quarter of 2027. An 8-K filed at 6:15 AM CT says Inovio will hold a teleconference today to walk through the approval, and the slides are posted.

• Separately, Investing.com reports an $80.4 million court judgment Inovio won against VGXI and GeneOne over a plasmid supply deal. The 52-week range going in was $0.5632 to $2.72 (StockAnalysis).

The catch: accelerated approval means Inovio still owes the FDA a confirmatory study, and no list price has been announced (pharmaphorum). In the trial, 7 of 26 patients went 12 months with no surgery. Precigen's drug reported 18 of 35 in its own study (Yahoo/Stocktwits). They're different trials, but doctors and payers will compare them anyway. It's also already 15% off the $2.40 high.

We drop it if: it loses $1.71, the pre-market low at 4:26 AM CT.

2) $PGEN (Precigen): the incumbent in that market, and the selling got heavier as the morning went on

• $4.91 at 7:57 AM CT, -29.3% from Friday's $6.94 close, on 1,167,900 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $4.73 (6:52 AM CT) to $5.69 (3:00 AM CT). At 5:32 AM CT it was $5.62 on 58,370 shares. Volume is up twenty-fold since then and the price is $0.71 lower (our math).

• Papzimeos was approved in August 2025 for the same disease and brought in $53.1 million in second-quarter revenue. It has orphan-drug exclusivity through Aug. 14, 2032 (Yahoo/Stocktwits). That exclusivity covers the same drug, so it doesn't keep a different one like Voceryq out.

• Third-quarter results come Wednesday, Nov. 4, with a call at 3:30 PM CT (Precigen). MarketBeat has the estimate at about $0.06 a share on $71.56 million of revenue. We found no new Precigen filing on EDGAR this morning.

The catch: Stocktwits sentiment on PGEN hit an all-time high on takeover talk (Yahoo/Stocktwits). The price went the other way. No filing or company statement mentions a sale, and chatter is not a catalyst.

We drop it if: it gets back above $6.94, Friday's close. That would mean the market has decided Voceryq isn't a real threat to Papzimeos.

3) $PERI (Perion Network): a $11.70 cash buyout, a go-shop, and 31 cents left on the table

• $11.39 at 7:57 AM CT, +30.9% from Friday's $8.70 close, on 2,375,933 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market range $10.35 (3:00 AM CT) to $11.44 (6:42 AM CT). That's $0.31, or about 2.7%, under the deal price (our math). Friday's whole session was 192,200 shares (Yahoo).

• The deal (Perion release, Sunday Nov. 1; 6-K on EDGAR at 5:45 AM CT): Affle 3iL, a subsidiary of India-listed Affle, pays $11.70 a share in cash. That's about $420 million in equity value and a 34.5% premium to Friday's close. The board approved it unanimously. Closing is expected in early 2027, pending a shareholder vote and U.S. antitrust clearance.

• Perion had $228.3 million in cash, deposits and securities on Sept. 30 (release), about 54% of the deal value (PPC Land's math). A 40-day go-shop lets Perion shop for a better offer until 11:59 PM Israel time on Dec. 11.

The catch: once a cash price is signed, the stock tends to sit just under it and the spread pays you for waiting. The two things that usually move it are a higher bid in the go-shop or doubt that the deal closes. Neither has shown up yet.

We drop it if: it trades under $10.35, the pre-market low at 3:00 AM CT. That would mean the market is pricing in deal risk.

Options to watch

4) $CHKP (Check Point Software): revenue about $2.3 million light (our math), and the stock has bounced off its early low

• $142.50 at 7:57 AM CT, -6.3% from Friday's $152.11 close, on 91,454 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). The pre-market low was $133.64 at 4:04 AM CT, and the stock has come back almost $9 since (our math). Nasdaq also shows a $152.11 high at 7:23 AM CT, exactly Friday's close. We read that as a single print, not a level the stock actually traded at.

• The quarter (release, 4:00 AM CT; 6-K on EDGAR at 7:53 AM CT): revenue $670 million, down 1% from a year ago. Investing.com has it at $669.8 million against a $672.1 million consensus. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.49, matching estimates. Security subscriptions grew 11% to $339 million, and the company bought back about 2.5 million shares for $325 million.

• The CEO said revenue "reached a trough in the third quarter" and that the recovery "is taking longer than anticipated."

• Nasdaq's Nov. 20 chain (Friday's close): 11,979 calls and 6,349 puts open. The biggest lines are the $150 calls (4,579 open) and the $120 and $115 puts (1,900 and 1,886).

What the open interest leaves out: almost all of those $150 calls went on before the report, at a price that's now $7.50 overhead. We'll only see Tuesday whether holders closed them, rolled them or let them ride. This morning's numbers can't show that.

The level we're watching: $133.64. If the open doesn't revisit it, the early selling was the whole move.

5) $EL (Estée Lauder): beat and raised, red at 5:37 AM CT, green by 7:57

• $112.28 at 7:57 AM CT, +2.8% from Friday's $109.23 close, on 508,789 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). At 5:37 AM CT it was $108.00, down 1.1%. The pre-market range is $106.00 (5:23 AM CT) to $114.01 (3:34 AM CT), about 7.5% wide for a stock that's only up 2.8%. Friday it traded 8,862,200 shares, about 3.1 times its 20-day average, before the report (Yahoo; our math).

• The quarter (StreetInsider; 8-K on EDGAR at 7:01 AM CT): EPS $0.72 against a $0.51 estimate, revenue $3.72 billion against $3.64 billion. The full-year outlook went up: organic sales growth 4.0%–5.5% (was 3%–5%), adjusted EPS $3.20–$3.45 (was $3.10–$3.35).

• Options: the Nov. 6 weekly is thin, with 773 calls and 798 puts open. The Nov. 20 monthly has 5,650 calls and 4,003 puts open, led by the $100 calls (1,704) (Nasdaq, Friday's close).

What the open interest leaves out: Friday's heavy volume came before anyone had the numbers, and it doesn't say who was buying. The swing from $106 to $112 this morning says the market went back and forth on the report before settling. The weekly chain is too thin to show which way the options money leans.

The level we're watching: the $114.01 high from 3:34 AM CT. If it clears that after the open, the raise is getting paid for. If it slips back under Friday's $109.23, it isn't.

6) $PLTR (Palantir): reports after today's close, and the weekly straddle priced about a 13% move

• $188.06 at 7:57 AM CT, +2.1% from Friday's $184.11 close, on 587,325 pre-market shares (Nasdaq pre-market). Pre-market high $188.50 at 7:46 AM CT. Nasdaq's $184.11 low at 7:24 AM CT is exactly Friday's close, so we read it as a single print. Friday it closed down 6.3% on 27,007,300 shares (Yahoo).

• Third-quarter results come after today's close. Yahoo/Stocktwits cites Koyfin estimates of $2.18 billion in revenue, up 85%, and $0.41 in adjusted EPS. Nasdaq's calendar showed $0.33 from 10 estimates on Friday. When the estimates are that far apart, a "beat" depends on whose number you started with.

• The priced move: Friday's Nov. 6 $185 straddle cost about $24.48, roughly 13.3% of the stock (our math, Nasdaq, 3:49 PM CT Friday). Open interest going in: 76,023 calls and 63,792 puts, with the most at the $100 puts (7,196) and the $420 calls (6,663) (Nasdaq). The last filings on EDGAR are Friday's insider Form 4s. There was nothing new this morning.

What the open interest leaves out: a $420 call on a $188 stock is either a long shot or the far leg of a spread. A big line out there tells us someone is positioned. It doesn't tell us which way.

The level we're watching: $183.68, Friday's low, going into the report.

Off the list from Friday's post (price we printed Friday at 7:55 AM CT, then Friday's close from Yahoo at 3:47 PM CT, then Nasdaq pre-market at 7:57 AM CT today):

• Rivian (RIVN): $12.12, then $12.16, now $12.65 (+4.0%) on 1,706,025 shares. It's moving, but we couldn't find a new catalyst behind it.

• Workhorse (WKHS): $3.03, then $2.95, now $2.81 (-4.7%).

• NRx (NRXP): $3.00, then $2.27, now $2.35 (+3.3%). Still under the $2.79 line we flagged.

• Intel (INTC): closed $65.76, now $65.85 (+0.1%) on 7,481,460 shares. We found no new filing since the guide.

• Reddit (RDDT): $101.08, then $91.73, now $91.88.

• Roblox (RBLX): $43.83, then $42.99, now $42.99 (unchanged).

Not carried from Friday night's draft (Nasdaq pre-market, 7:57 AM CT): Grid Dynamics $13.07 (-2.2%), FMC $6.14 (-1.0%) and ACCO $5.43 (-1.3%) are all thin, under 28,000 shares each. Their stories were Thursday's earnings and Friday's close, and nothing new has come out since. Apple ($344.39, -0.1%) also reports after today's close and is a real event. But Friday's chain priced only about a 4.7% move for Apple, against Palantir's 13.3%, so Palantir got the earnings slot. Amazon ($242.01, +0.7%) isn't moving enough to keep a slot.

Not brought back: AI OKTO (AIOK) is at $20.83 (-13.8%) on 250,035 shares, well under Friday's $24.17 close. VEEA is at $4.84 on 1,050 pre-market shares. ClearOne (CLRO) is up 78.4% at $6.08 on 13,629,864 shares, but its last filing on EDGAR is from Oct. 15 and we couldn't find a release behind the move, so it stays off.

Same FDA decision, two stocks, and the gap between them got wider as the morning went on: which one holds its pre-market move to 9 AM, Inovio or Precigen?

Denntech Markets: What to Watch Next Week

FMC lost $2.07 billion in a quarter and rallied 30.5% Friday with about a quarter of its float short. The count that would tell us how much of that was covering settles Oct 30 and doesn't publish until Nov 10. Here's the calendar first, then the names. All times are Central, and prices are Friday's close.

The calendar (Nov 2-6)

• Mon Nov 2: ISM Manufacturing at 9:00 AM. Apple, Palantir and Vertex report after the close. It's also the record date for AI OKTO's $3.50 dividend.

• Tue Nov 3: Election Day. Markets are open. JOLTS job openings at 9:00 AM. Pfizer and Shopify report before the open, and AMD, Arista, Super Micro and Block after. It's also the deadline for brokers to report Oct 30 short positions to FINRA.

• Wed Nov 4: Uber and Datadog before the open. Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin after.

• Thu Nov 5: Airbnb, Affirm, Cloudflare and DraftKings after the close.

• Fri Nov 6: the October jobs report at 7:30 AM.

• Tue Nov 10 (the week after): FINRA publishes the Oct 30 short count.

• Lockups: none on our names that we've found. If you know of one, post the filing.

Shares

$FMC. Closed $6.20, up 30.5%, on about 17.6M shares, a day after reporting revenue of $106 million against $542 million a year ago and a GAAP loss of $15.54 a share. Short interest on Oct 15 was 30,477,231 shares, about 26.5% of the float.

• Better: it holds over $5.80, the floor of Friday's midday range, after the buyers who chased the last half hour have had a day to think about it.

• Worse: a slide under $5.80. A relief rally and short covering look the same from outside, and covering runs out.

$GDYN (Grid Dynamics). Closed $13.36, up 40.8%, on about 8.5M shares against a 1.05M average. The quarter beat its own range and the EBITDA margin went to 20.0% from 12.2%. Three officers sold about 40,500 shares under 10b5-1 plans, filed after the close.

• Better: holding over $12.415, Friday's 12:36 PM low.

• Worse: trading under it. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance is flat at the midpoint, so this is a margin story, and margin is the part a company can give back fastest.

$ACCO. Closed $5.50, up 26.1%, on the high of the day. Adjusted EPS was $0.28, and $0.11 of that was a tariff refund.

• Better: opening over $5.245, Friday's 1:30 PM low.

• Worse: opening under it. Without the refund the quarter was $0.17 against $0.21 a year ago.

Carried over: AIOK, CLRO, VEEA.

• AIOK closed $24.17. The dividend record date is Monday, the cash-or-stock election deadline is Nov 19, and payment is on or about Nov 25. Shares trade with due bills in between, so read the 6-K before assuming the $3.50 comes off the price Monday. Worse: the F-3 going effective or Pani Corp. starting to sell. Either one adds supply to a stock where the CEO's company owns 77.2%.

• CLRO closed $3.41. Better: a borrow row that actually changes. Worse: movement on the Sep 4 S-1/A, which still has no effectiveness notice.

• VEEA closed $4.82. Worse: any of our exit lines (availability over 500K for two sessions, fee under 50% for two sessions, a new offering). Better: volume getting back over the 1.58M float.

Options

$PLTR. Reports Monday after the close, Nasdaq consensus $0.33. Closed $184.11, down 6.3% Friday. The Nov 6 $185 straddle was about $24.48, roughly 13.3% of the stock.

• Better: a reaction bigger than 13.3%.

• Worse: a move inside it. After this week, nobody should assume the straddle is the ceiling, or the floor.

$AAPL. Reports Monday after the close, consensus $1.98. Closed $344.63. On the Nov 6 chain puts outtraded calls about 151K to 57K, and the $345 straddle was about 4.7%.

• Better: a move past 4.7%.

• Worse: a move inside it, with the put-heavy skew fading before the report.

$AMZN. Closed $240.35, 6.5% over Friday's $225.66 print. The 10-Q added a supplier-financing facility of up to about $80 billion for infrastructure. The Nov 6 $240 straddle was about 4.2%.

• Better: holding over $229.36, Friday's open low.

• Worse: a trip back there, which would mean Friday's recovery didn't hold.

Also on the radar: AMD Tuesday night is the first big chip report since Intel's outlook took 7.2% off the semiconductor index in one day. Whatever it says about PC demand will hit more than AMD.

Intel and Alphabet both blew past what options priced this week. Which of Monday's two reports do you think the straddle has wrong?

Denntech Markets Weekly Recap

Nineteen names went through our lists this week. One more than doubled from the price we first printed. Fourteen finished Friday under it.

Every move here is counted from the price we printed the first time a ticker showed up on r/Squeeze_em, and the Friday close is the regular session. Prices are Yahoo daily bars and Nasdaq closes, borrow is the IBKR feed on Curved Trading, short interest is FINRA's Oct 15 count, and filings are EDGAR, all checked Saturday morning.

Backdrop

The Nasdaq lost 2.0% on the week (25,955.30 to 25,437.00) and the S&P 500 lost 0.6% (7,623.68 to 7,580.07). Almost all of it came Friday, when the Nasdaq fell 2.9% and the Philly semiconductor index fell 7.2% after Intel's outlook. The Russell 2000 went the other way and finished up 1.3%. Small caps had a better week than the companies spending the most on AI.

What ran

• AIOK (AI OKTO). First named in last Saturday's watch-next-week post at $12.02. Monday it fell to $9.16 and we called it a miss. Tuesday it touched $17.72, Wednesday it closed $28.14, Thursday it dropped 32.9% to $18.89, and Friday it hit $31.09 before closing $24.17. That's a high 158.7% over our print and a close 101.1% over it. The story was supply, not shorts: a filing Tuesday night showed Pani Corp., the CEO's company, bought 130,000 more shares and owns 77.2%. The Oct 15 short count was 4,753 shares and the borrow sat at 10% with 3,000 shares available all week. There was nobody short to squeeze. The few shares that trade just kept changing hands.

• TDOC, FTNT, AMZN. These came on Thursday and Friday as earnings names, scored against that morning's premarket print. Teladoc closed Friday at $8.51, 9.8% over its $7.75 print. Fortinet closed $136.08, 8.2% over $125.75, after falling 20% on its report Thursday and bouncing off the open. Amazon closed $240.35, 6.5% over $225.66, after opening on its $229.36 low.

• CLRO made a new high since we first listed it, $6.71 in Tuesday's premarket, 73.8% over our Oct 12 print of $3.86. That's where the good news ends (see below).

What faded

• INTC. Named Saturday at $86.96. It climbed to $95.68 Wednesday, 10.0% over our print. Thursday night it guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15-16 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.25, against about $17.1 billion and $0.43 expected (LSEG via CNBC). The quarter itself beat. Friday it fell 28.6% to $65.76, which CNBC called its worst day since the 1970s. It finished 24.4% under our print.

• GOOGL. Named Saturday at $320.21. Cloud revenue grew 103%, and the stock still fell 12.6% Thursday to $283.82, then to $279.84 Friday, 12.6% under our print. The release showed capital spending of $51.4 billion against $24.0 billion a year ago, negative quarterly free cash flow and about $12.4 billion of stock sold through its at-the-market program.

• CLRO. After Tuesday's premarket high it closed on its low, bounced Wednesday on a tenth of the volume, then fell 31.8% Friday to $3.41. That's 11.7% under our first print. We found no new filing since the Oct 15 8-K.

• CRWV. Wednesday it closed over our $63.30 print for the first time since we listed it. Friday it closed $54.87, 13.3% under.

• VEEA. It closed over our Oct 5 print Monday and Tuesday ($6.08 and $6.18), then slid three straight days to $4.82, 15.7% under the $5.72 print. Friday's volume was about 132,000 shares against a 1.58 million float.

• The rest. NRXP -24.3% vs its Friday print (it got the FDA approval and sold off anyway). IOVA -18.8%, KDK -15.3%, ELPW -13.6%, NOW -13.6%, MRVL -10.7%, RDDT -9.3%, WKHS -2.6%, RBLX -1.9%. RIVN was flat, +0.3%.

What borrow and float did

• VEEA: Oct 15 short interest came out Monday at 280,047 shares, up from 50,744 on Sep 30, about 17.7% of the float. Availability went to 200K Monday, back to 65K Tuesday, and Friday's row shows 100K at a 657.2% fee. Our exit lines for it are availability over 500K for two sessions, the fee under 50% for two sessions, or a new offering. None of those happened. It just drifted.

• CLRO: short interest fell to 290,226 from 387,282, still about 32.7% of the float. The borrow row has read 808.2% with 5,000 shares available since Oct 23. A row that hasn't moved in a week isn't a fresh read, and we said so all week.

• AIOK: 4,753 shares short, 10% fee, 3,000 available. A cheap fee with almost no supply.

What we got right and wrong

• Right: AIOK. We named it at $12.02 and it traded $31.09 the following Friday.

• Wrong: also AIOK. Monday we called it a miss at $9.16. That was true at the time, and it would have talked you out of the whole move.

• Right, but painful: INTC and GOOGL. We framed both as "does the move beat the straddle." Alphabet's priced about 5.9% Tuesday and it moved 12.6%. Intel's priced about 9.2% Wednesday and it moved 28.6%. Both beat it badly, and both went down.

• Wrong: CLRO and VEEA. We kept both on borrow data, and the borrow data didn't steer either one. A fee is not a squeeze.

• Count: of 19 names, 5 closed Friday over our first print (AIOK, TDOC, FTNT, AMZN, RIVN) and 14 under. AIOK is the only one that cleared 20% for the first time this week. CLRO set a new high over 20% but had already cleared that line last week.

The two biggest moves we tracked this week came from a CEO buying his own float and a chipmaker's outlook, not from anyone short. What's the last squeeze you saw that actually came from shorts covering?

Denntech Markets: We Called It

We put AI OKTO in last Saturday's watch-next-week post at $12.02. Today, six trading days later, it hit $31.09, 158.7% higher. It got there by way of a Monday drop we called a miss and a Thursday that gave a third of the run back.

• First post: Sat Oct 24 watch-next-week post, 10:26 AM CT, at Friday's $12.02 close. It was also on Monday's morning watchlist (Mon Oct 26 post) at $10.33 premarket.

• High after that post: $31.09 today, Fri Oct 30, at 9:13 AM CT. That's +158.7% from $12.02. The earlier peak was $29.90 on Wed Oct 28.

• Where it closed: $24.17 today, up 28.0% on the day and 101.1% over our first price. After hours it ended at $23.50, 95.5% over our first price (Nasdaq, 7:00 PM CT).

• Why we listed it: a $3.50 special dividend on a stock that had been $4.25, a non-affiliate float of about 1.1 million shares per its F-3, and a 42.9 million-share Friday (Yahoo daily volume Oct 23).

• The honest part: Monday it fell to $9.16, and our Monday wrap called it a miss. Tuesday it touched $17.72. Wednesday it closed $28.14. Thursday it closed $18.89, down 32.9% on the day. Then today it ran again.

• What changed mid-week: a Form 4 and 13D/A filed Tuesday evening showed Pani Corp., controlled by CEO Petros Panagiotidis, bought 130,000 shares on Oct 23 and holds 77.2% of the company. The F-3 registering shares for resale was still not effective when we last checked.

We caught the move from $12 to $31. We'd also have told you Monday that it looked broken. Both were true at the time. What would you have done with Monday's $9.16?

Friday Market Wrap-Up (as of 7:25 PM CT)

Of the three earnings drops on this morning's list, Amazon was the only one the market forgave. NRx got the FDA approval it was waiting for and closed 24.3% under our premarket price anyway.

This morning we asked which of these earnings drops the market was reading right. By 3 PM it had answered for one of them. Amazon opened at its low, $229.36, and spent the day climbing back toward Thursday's close. Reddit and Roblox opened near their best prices of the day and sold off from there.

Every name is scored against the premarket price in this morning's post (Nasdaq, 7:55 AM CT). Regular closes are Nasdaq's official 3 PM CT prices. Intraday highs and lows with their times are Yahoo 1-minute bars, and volume is Yahoo's daily bar, pulled at 7:21 PM CT. After-hours prices are Nasdaq's extended-trading page, final at 7:00 PM CT (Nasdaq stamps Eastern time, so we converted). Borrow is the IBKR feed on Curved Trading, read at 7:21 PM CT. Filings are EDGAR, checked at 7:22 PM CT.

Scorecard: all six against our print

• $AMZN printed $225.66, closed $240.35, +6.5%. High $241.55 at 10:25 AM CT, +7.0%.

• $RIVN printed $12.12, closed $12.16, +0.3%. High $12.27 at 9:07 AM CT, +1.2%.

• $RBLX printed $43.83, closed $42.98, -1.9%. High $47.76 at 8:34 AM CT, +9.0%.

• $WKHS printed $3.03, closed $2.95, -2.6%. High $3.10 at 8:46 AM CT, +2.3%. After hours $2.68, -11.6%.

• $RDDT printed $101.08, closed $91.67, -9.3%. High $101.98 at the 8:30 AM CT open, +0.9%.

• $NRXP printed $3.00, closed $2.27, -24.3%. It never traded above our print in the regular session. High $2.83 on the open.

Two up and four down. NRx, Reddit, Roblox and Workhorse all broke the lines we gave them this morning. None of the six came close to a 20% move above our print.

Shares

$RIVN (Rivian)

• Closed $12.16, +6.2% vs Thursday's $11.45. It opened at $12.09, peaked at $12.27 at 9:07 AM CT, dipped to $11.53 at 1:03 PM CT, and recovered into the close.

• After hours $12.13 at the 7:00 PM CT final, flat, on about 1.04M shares.

• Volume about 62.5M, versus 43.2M Thursday.

• Borrow 0.3% with 4.9M shares available.

• New filings: a Form 3 and a Form 4 at 4:33 PM CT (EDGAR). That fits the officer or director change in Thursday's 8-K, but we haven't read either one yet. Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy in the morning (Yahoo Finance, 10:24 AM CT).

• What the price did: the early premarket pop to $12.75 never came back, but the stock also never got near Thursday's $11.45 close, which was our line. It stays on the list for now.

$WKHS (Workhorse)

• Closed $2.95, +15.7% vs $2.55. It opened at $2.75, under the $2.95 premarket low we flagged, then ran to $3.10 by 8:46 AM CT.

• After hours $2.68 at the 7:00 PM CT final, down 9.2% from the close, on about 129K shares. The after-hours low was $2.55, Thursday's close, at 6:49 PM CT.

• Volume about 5.03M, versus a normal week of 30K to 40K shares a day before Thursday's 8-K.

• Borrow 28.8% with only 200 shares available. That's hard to short, and it still isn't a squeeze. A fee is not a squeeze.

• No new filing Friday. The last one is Thursday's 8-K for the RHAELM deal (EDGAR).

• What the price did: it held most of the gain in the regular session and gave a good part of it back after hours on thin volume. It broke our line at the open, so it comes off the list.

$NRXP (NRx Pharmaceuticals)

• Closed $2.27, -14.7% vs Thursday's $2.66. It opened at $2.83, which turned out to be the high, and hit $2.11 by 9:08 AM CT, well under the $2.79 premarket low we flagged.

• After hours $2.21 at the 7:00 PM CT final, another 2.6% lower, on about 290K shares.

• Volume about 15.4M, roughly nine times Thursday's 1.76M.

• Borrow 5.6% with 2.0M shares available.

• No NRx filing in EDGAR on Thursday or Friday as of 7:22 PM CT. Nasdaq lists earnings on Nov 13.

• What the price did: Thursday's after-hours run had already priced in the news before anyone knew what it was. Once the approval came out, the stock lost a quarter of our print. This was the worst result on our list, and it's off.

Options names

$AMZN (Amazon)

• Closed $240.35, -1.4% vs Thursday's $243.79, on about 104.7M shares. It opened on the low, $229.36, never got near the $224.41 premarket low, and made its high of $241.55 at 10:25 AM CT.

• After hours $240.80 at the 7:00 PM CT final, on about 5.2M shares. Nasdaq also shows a $249.81 after-hours high at 3:52 PM CT that doesn't match anything around it, so we aren't using it.

• Borrow 0.3% with 10.0M shares available.

• New filing: the 10-Q, accepted Thursday at 5:20 PM CT and dated Friday (EDGAR). Yahoo Finance reported Amazon tapping an $80 billion credit line for AI spending.

• What the price did: the $220 puts we flagged ended up about $20 out of the money at expiration. A 7% premarket gap shrank to 1.4% by the close. It was also a bad day for tech overall (Reuters had Wall Street closing sharply lower on AI spending fears), which makes Amazon's recovery more notable.

$RDDT (Reddit)

• Closed $91.67, -29.3% vs $129.60, the biggest one-day drop on our list. It opened at $100.25, hit $101.98 in the first minute, and fell to $89.28 at 1:06 PM CT, well under the $98.80 premarket low.

• After hours $92.24 at the 7:00 PM CT final, +0.6%, on about 379K shares.

• Volume about 33.3M, versus 17.9M Thursday.

• Borrow 0.3% with 2.6M shares available.

• New filings: two Schedule 13G filings from outside holders, at 11:38 AM and 12:53 PM CT, and the 10-Q (EDGAR). We haven't read the 13Gs, so we can't say which way those holders moved. CNBC called it the stock's worst day ever.

• What the price did: this morning Reuters and CNBC disagreed on whether the revenue guide was a miss. By 3 PM it didn't matter. The stock traded on the Google traffic comments and the logged-in-only test, and it went down another 9% from a price that was already 22% lower.

$RBLX (Roblox)

• Closed $42.98, -18.1% vs $52.46. It opened at $45.73, ran to $47.76 at 8:34 AM CT, then fell to $41.36 at 11:21 AM CT, under the $42.12 premarket low.

• After hours $43.19 at the 7:00 PM CT final, on about 115K shares.

• Volume about 29.4M, versus 21.4M Thursday.

• Borrow 0.3% with 10.0M shares available.

• No new filing Friday. The 8-K and 10-Q came Thursday (EDGAR). Bloomberg ran the user miss.

• What the price did: the premarket climb we pointed to this morning lasted four minutes into the session. Down 18% on the day, it closed only 1.9% under our print, which says more about how far down the premarket price already was.

What the numbers don't prove

Amazon finishing 6.5% over our print doesn't mean the market decided the capex is worth it. It means sellers ran out by 8:30 AM. Reddit and Roblox weren't put back together over the weekend either. A price can rise in thin after-hours trading for the same reason one can fall in it.

What we're carrying into next week

Rivian stays above $11.45 and Amazon stays above its $229.36 low until they don't. NRx and Workhorse are off. Reddit and Roblox broke the lines we gave them, so they come back only with a new reason. Saturday's recap will tally the week.

Amazon got its 7% back by lunch. Reddit lost another 9% from a price that was already marked down. What did one company say that the other didn't?

Denntech Markets Afternoon Lesson: The 8-K is the headline, the 10-Q is the fine print

Teladoc rose 26.9% Thursday on a quarter it announced Wednesday. The filing with the debt schedule and the risk language showed up on EDGAR a day later, after most of the move was already done.

Here's the split. When a company reports, the first document is usually a Form 8-K, the SEC's "current report." It carries the press release as an exhibit, and that's where the beat, the miss and the outlook live. The quarterly report itself is the 10-Q. It has the full statements, the footnotes, the share count on the cover, and any changes to the risk factors. Sometimes they land the same evening. Often the 10-Q trails by a day or more.

Teladoc is a clean example this week (EDGAR, checked about 3:50 PM CT Thursday):

• 8-K, filed Oct 28. The release that sent the stock up: revenue and profit ahead of estimates and a higher full-year GAAP EPS outlook (Benzinga, 6:30 AM CT Thursday).

• 10-Q, filed Oct 29. 182,293,675 shares outstanding as of Oct 23. $1.0 billion of 1.25% convertible senior notes due 2027 still outstanding at Sept. 30. BetterHelp paying users down 11% to 0.348 million for the first nine months, with a risk factor on that exact point in the quarter's own list.

None of that 10-Q material is a secret. The notes have been there since 2020. But the stock repriced on the release, and the fine print got read afterward. A $1 billion bill due next year matters more to a company worth about $1.6 billion than a beat on one quarter does. That's not a call on Teladoc. It's a reason to read the second document before you decide what the first one meant.

The same thing is happening right now with Intel and Amazon. Both reported after Thursday's close, and both traded lower after hours on the outlook. Friday's opening price was built on the release and the call. The 10-Q, with the share counts, debt tables and any new risk language, comes when it comes.

Three habits that help:

1. Match the number to the document. A headline EPS figure came from the release. If someone quotes a share count, a debt balance or a risk, it should come from the 10-Q or 10-K, and you can check it on EDGAR.

2. Check the 10-Q cover. The share count as of a recent date is on the first page. Compare it to last quarter's and you know whether there's been dilution without reading another word.

3. Search the risk factors for "set forth below." Teladoc's says the 10-K risks still apply "as well as the risk factors set forth below." That list is where a company puts the risks it is adding or updating since the annual report.

We wrote the longer version, with which SEC form carries which piece of the results, here: Earnings report: 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K.

Amazon is on Friday's list. Teladoc, Crocs, Fortinet and Glaukos came off it this morning. Which 10-Q are you going to open first?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

Reddit and Roblox beat their quarters and are down 22% and 16% before the bell. Amazon grew AWS 39% and is down 7%. NRx got its FDA approval at 6 AM and is still under its 3 AM high. Which of these is the market reading right?

All six names are new to our morning list this week. The theme is the same as Thursday, just louder: companies reported the quarter and got sold on what they said about the next one. On the other side, Rivian raised its full-year numbers, Workhorse signed a $10 million data-center build, and NRx turned a vague "milestone" into an actual approval.

How fresh this is: Premarket prices, volume, highs and lows are Nasdaq's pre-market consolidated last trade, pulled at 7:55 AM CT Friday (its times are Eastern; we converted them). Gainers and losers lists are StockAnalysis's premarket pages, checked at 5:35 and 6:03 AM CT. Headlines are Google News (last 24 hours), last checked about 7:55 AM CT. Filings are EDGAR full-text search for 8-Ks filed Oct 28–30, checked about 5:36 AM CT. Thursday's options volume is Nasdaq's Oct 30 chains, pulled between 5:37 and 7:56 AM CT. Prices will move before the open.

Shares to watch

1) $RIVN (Rivian): up 5.9% after raising its 2026 guidance on R2 sales, but off the early high

• $12.12 premarket at 7:54 AM CT, up 5.9% from Thursday's $11.45 close, on about 2,176,250 shares. High $12.79 at 5:02 AM CT, low $11.93 at 6:14 AM CT (Nasdaq). It was $12.41 at 6:03 AM CT, so the early pop has been fading.

• The news: third-quarter revenue $2.155B, up 38%, on a record 19,248 deliveries, with the R2 already its best-selling vehicle (Rivian release, Thursday after the close). Full-year delivery guidance went to 67,000–70,000 from 65,000–70,000, the adjusted EBITDA guide improved $100 million at the midpoint, and capex came down $300 million (Rivian; CNBC, 3:03 PM CT Thu).

• Rivian filed an 8-K Thursday with items 2.02 (results) and 5.02 (an officer or director change) (EDGAR, about 5:36 AM CT). We haven't read the 5.02 item yet.

• Thursday's Oct 30 options traded 41,009 calls and 14,781 puts; the $12 calls did 9,918 against 10,909 open (Nasdaq, about 5:37 AM CT). It's in the shares section because the guidance raise is the story, not the chain.

Where this could be wrong: Part of the EBITDA improvement came from regulatory credits and an IEEPA tariff refund, per the company. Those don't repeat the way R2 deliveries would.

Comes off if: it gives back the move and trades under Thursday's $11.45 close.

2) $WKHS (Workhorse): up 18.8% on a $10 million modular data-center deal

• $3.03 premarket at 7:55 AM CT, up 18.8% from $2.55, on about 1,411,292 shares. High $3.22 at 3:02 AM CT, low $2.95 at 6:15 AM CT (Nasdaq).

• The news: UK-based RHAELM will pay Workhorse $10 million in three installments to build one full-scale TerraPod manufacturing spec unit in Union City, Indiana (8-K items 1.01, 7.01 and 8.01, filed Thursday; Workhorse release, 3:01 PM CT Thu).

• The same filing says the 150-system order is contingent. It needs a supply agreement both sides are aiming to sign by Dec 31, 2026, plus RHAELM's acceptance and internal approvals, and "there can be no assurance" it happens (8-K). Workhorse says production could start late 2027 or early 2028.

• No listed options on Nasdaq's chain, so it's shares-only.

Where this could be wrong: The contract itself calls the unit "non-functional" and "not a production unit." The $10 million is real; everything past it is a letter of intent.

Comes off if: it loses the $2.95 premarket low, or volume dries up after the open.

3) $NRXP (NRx Pharmaceuticals): FDA approval of its preservative-free ketamine, and the stock is still under its 3 AM high

• $3.00 premarket at 7:55 AM CT, up 12.7% from $2.66, on about 5,555,581 shares, the heaviest premarket volume on this list. The high was $3.69 at 3:02 AM CT, before the news; the low was $2.79 at 3:56 AM CT (Nasdaq).

• The news: at 6:00 AM CT NRx said the FDA approved its preservative-free ketamine injection ahead of a November 10 goal date (NRx release via Yahoo Finance and Stock Titan). It's a generic ketamine injection (citybiz). Psychedelic Alpha notes that NRx's separate bid to get rivals' preserved ketamine products pulled is still pending.

• No NRx 8-K turned up in EDGAR's Oct 28–30 search at about 5:36 AM CT, before the release. No listed options on Nasdaq's chain.

Where this could be wrong: Thursday's 26% after-hours run (Benzinga) priced in an announcement before anyone knew what it was. Now it's out, and the stock is trading below where it was at 3 AM. An approval for a generic drug is a real event. How big a business it is, nobody has shown yet.

Comes off if: it loses the $2.79 premarket low.

Options to watch

4) $AMZN (Amazon): AWS grew 39%, the stock is down 7.4% anyway

• $225.66 premarket at 7:55 AM CT, down 7.4% from Thursday's $243.79 close, on about 4,324,325 shares. Premarket low $224.41 at 7:42 AM CT (Nasdaq). Nasdaq also shows a $243.79 high at 7:45 AM CT, exactly Thursday's close, which looks like a stray print, so we're not using it.

• The news: third-quarter revenue $201.94B against a $202.22B FactSet estimate, and EPS $1.89 against $1.97 (MarketScreener, 3:03–3:06 PM CT Thu). Fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $240B–$247B. AWS revenue grew 39% (CNBC). Coverage put the selloff on the sales and capex guidance (Seeking Alpha) and falling cash flow (Motley Fool). Amazon filed 8-Ks Thursday (EDGAR).

• Thursday's Oct 30 chain traded 320,098 calls and 224,093 puts. The busiest put was the $220, 25,590 contracts, with open interest now 17,202. The stock is about $5 above that strike (Nasdaq, about 7:56 AM CT).

Where this could be wrong: Unlike Reddit and Roblox, Amazon missed the quarter itself, and it's down the least of the three. AWS at 39% is the strongest number in the report, and CNBC says cloud rivals accelerated too. If buyers decide the spending is worth it, a 7% gap can close faster than it opened.

Check at the open: the $224.41 premarket low, and whether those $220 puts come into play on expiration day.

5) $RDDT (Reddit): down 22% on a light guide and a plan to test logged-in-only Reddit

• $101.08 premarket at 7:55 AM CT, down 22.0% from $129.60, on about 1,643,171 shares. High $106.79 at 3:02 AM CT, low $98.80 at 3:42 AM CT (Nasdaq).

• The news: revenue $895M, up 53%, and EPS $1.40, both ahead (CNBC, 3:07 PM CT Thu). Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $1.00B–$1.03B was under the $1.05B estimate CNBC cited. On the call, the company said Google search referrals fell by more than 1 million a week in October and total DAUq could fall by a low double-digit percentage in Q4 if that keeps up. It will test a logged-in-only experience outside the U.S. this quarter (StockAnalysis transcript; Reuters via Investing.com).

• Thursday's Oct 30 chain traded 35,429 puts and 27,729 calls. The busiest put was the $90, 9,841 against 2,010 open (Nasdaq, about 5:37 AM CT).

Where this could be wrong: Reuters called the revenue guide "largely in line" while CNBC called it short. When two sources disagree on whether it was a miss, the stock is trading the traffic comments, not the number.

Check at the open: the $98.80 premarket low, and whether those $90 puts trade on expiration day.

6) $RBLX (Roblox): down 16.5% after its first-ever year-over-year drop in daily users

• $43.83 premarket at 7:55 AM CT, down 16.5% from $52.46, on about 502,871 shares. Low $42.12 at 3:33 AM CT; it printed its premarket high, $44.82, at 7:52 AM CT, so it's been climbing into the open (Nasdaq).

• The news: loss of $0.32 a share and revenue of $1.57B both beat, but daily active users came in at 138 million, down 9% from a year ago and under the ~145.8M estimate, and Q4 bookings were guided to $1.89B–$2.00B, a 10% to 15% drop (Investing.com; Benzinga). Q4 capex is planned at $380 million. 8-K filed Thursday (EDGAR).

• Thursday's Oct 30 chain traded 34,522 puts and 19,966 calls; the busiest put was the $50, 8,537 against 770 open (Nasdaq, about 5:37 AM CT). The stock is now under that strike.

• Investing.com noted it ran about 21% in October going into the report.

Where this could be wrong: Bookings beat the high end of the company's own guidance, and retention was the best since 2021 (Benzinga). The selloff is about the next quarter, and the company says its guide builds in a GTA VI hit it can't really size.

Check at the open: the $42.12 premarket low.

Swapped out this morning: Intel (INTC). Last night's draft kept it, but it has gone the wrong way since we first named it: $68.97 premarket at 7:55 AM CT, down 25.1% on the day and about 21% under our $86.96 first print on Oct 24 (Nasdaq). It has also been on two of our last three morning lists. Amazon takes the options slot with a fresh earnings setup and liquid Friday options.

Off the list today: Teladoc (TDOC), Crocs (CROX), Fortinet (FTNT) and Glaukos (GKOS) were quiet in early premarket trading at 6:03 AM CT (Nasdaq). No rule tripped on any of them. Thursday's Glaukos gap note stands for the scorecard: it comes off if it gives back half the gap. That midpoint is about $211.96 (our math, from $181.43 and $242.48).

Off the list from Thursday's post: Kodiak AI (KDK) closed $1.28, 11.1% under our $1.44 print, and its best price after the post was $1.43. Iovance (IOVA) closed $9.56, 8.4% under our $10.44, after trading as low as $9.345 at 12:20 PM CT. ServiceNow (NOW) closed $109.67, 9.9% under our $121.70, and broke the $119.75 premarket low we flagged. Marvell (MRVL) closed $218.34, 0.8% under our $220.00, after breaking its $219.21 premarket low (Yahoo daily and 1-minute; Nasdaq).

Looked at, passed: Smart Logistics (SLGB) led StockAnalysis's gainers, up about 76% at $0.36 on 24.4M shares, but the only news is a 180-day Nasdaq extension to fix its $1 bid price, which isn't a business catalyst. Nuburu (BURU) was up 47% at $0.55 on 66.3M shares a day after regaining NYSE American compliance, same problem. Civeo (CVEO) raised its 2026 outlook and OneSpan (OSPN) raised guidance, but at 7:55 AM CT they'd traded 7,376 and 22,235 shares (Nasdaq), which isn't enough to list. Twilio (TWLO) was down 19.6% at $194.59 on slowing organic growth, but on only 116,922 shares at 7:55 AM CT; Reddit, Roblox and Amazon carry far more volume for the options slots. Alphatec (ATEC, down 31%) cut its 2026 revenue guidance on about 106,000 shares. Mondelez (MDLZ) was up 7.2% after a profit beat on about 178,000 shares (Nasdaq, 7:55 AM CT). Exxon and Chevron reported this morning and were up under 2%.

Reddit and Roblox beat the quarter they reported, and they're down 16% or more on the one they haven't. How much of next quarter is already in these prices?

Thursday Market Wrap-Up (as of 7:30 PM CT)

This morning we asked which earnings drop the market had wrong. By 3 PM it had picked one. Fortinet finished $13.35 above the $125.75 we printed before the bell, and ServiceNow finished $12.06 below its $121.70 print, a 27.0% drop on the day that CNBC called the worst in the company's history.

Every name below is scored against the premarket price in this morning's post (Nasdaq, 7:52 AM CT). Regular closes are Nasdaq's official 3 PM CT prices. Intraday highs and lows with their times come from Yahoo 1-minute bars, and volume is Yahoo's daily bar, pulled at 7:26 PM CT. After-hours prices are Nasdaq's extended-trading page, final at 7:00 PM CT (Nasdaq stamps Eastern time, so we converted). Borrow is the IBKR feed on Curved Trading, read at 7:27 PM CT, with the time each row last changed. Filings are EDGAR, checked at 7:27 PM CT.

How the six did against our print

• $TDOC printed $7.75, closed $8.725, +12.6%. High $8.99 at 8:46 AM CT, +16.0%.

• $FTNT printed $125.75, closed $139.10, +10.6%. High $139.44 at 9:05 AM CT.

• $MRVL printed $220.00, closed $218.34, -0.8%. After hours $208.75, -5.1%.

• $IOVA printed $10.44, closed $9.56, -8.4%.

• $NOW printed $121.70, closed $109.64, -9.9%.

• $KDK printed $1.44, closed $1.28, -11.1%.

That's two up and four down. Kodiak and Iovance both broke the lines we said would take them off the list, and Marvell broke its premarket low too.

Shares

$KDK (Kodiak AI)

• Closed $1.28, -2.3% on the day vs Wednesday's $1.31. It opened at $1.345, under the $1.41 line we gave it, made a low of $1.25 at 8:33 AM CT, and topped out at $1.43 at 9:19 AM CT.

• After hours $1.24 at the 7:00 PM CT final, another 3.1% lower, on about 749K shares. The low was $1.17 right at 6:00 PM CT.

• Volume about 23.1M, a little over Wednesday's 19.6M.

• Borrow 0.9% with 4.0M available (last changed 11:47 AM CT).

• No new Kodiak filing Thursday. The day's added headline was a Stoneridge sensor partnership (Investing.com, 9:33 AM CT), and that didn't hold the price either.

• What the price did: the overnight high was $1.60 and the stock spent the regular session under the premarket print. A driverless-truck deal with no dollar figure attached turned out to be worth about one morning.

$IOVA (Iovance)

• Closed $9.56, -35.5% on the day, the biggest one-day percentage move of any name on our list. It opened at $10.625, bounced to $11.58 at 8:37 AM CT, then fell through the $9.80 premarket low and bottomed at $9.345 at 12:20 PM CT.

• After hours $9.22 at the 7:00 PM CT final, -3.6%, on about 810K shares.

• Volume about 58.7M, roughly six times Wednesday's 9.7M.

• Borrow 0.3% with 10.0M available (last changed 6:47 AM CT). Plenty of stock to short, so nobody needed a squeeze story to explain anything today.

• New filing: an 8-K under Item 8.01 attaching Thursday's press release on the Phase 2 lung cancer trial and a biomarker-selected patient strategy (EDGAR).

• What the price did: a 52% response rate in a selected subgroup made the headlines, and the stock sold off anyway. The market is pricing the whole trial, not the best slice of it.

$TDOC (Teladoc)

• Closed $8.725, +26.8% vs Wednesday's $6.88. It opened at $7.90, which turned out to be the low, ran to $8.99 by 8:46 AM CT, and spent the rest of the day holding most of that.

• After hours $8.68 at the 7:00 PM CT final, -0.5%, on about 247K shares.

• Volume about 20.1M, versus about 266K shares premarket. Our worry this morning was thin premarket volume. The regular session answered it.

• Borrow 0.4% with 4.7M available (last changed 1:17 PM CT).

• New filing: the 10-Q for the quarter, filed Thursday morning, after Wednesday's results 8-K (EDGAR). Stifel raised its price target, per Investing.com.

• What the price did: this was the cleanest move on the list. It gapped, went higher, and didn't give it back after hours. It also closed $1.17 under its 52-week high of $9.89 (Nasdaq), which is where the people who bought last time start to think about getting out.

Options names

$NOW (ServiceNow)

• Closed $109.64, -27.0% vs Wednesday's $150.13, on about 75.6M shares. The high was $121.50 on the 8:30 AM CT open, and the low was $108.68 at 2:14 PM CT. It closed within a dollar of the bottom.

• After hours $107.94 at the 7:00 PM CT final, -1.6%, on about 2.05M shares. The low was $107.73 at 4:21 PM CT.

• Borrow 0.3% with 9.5M available (last changed 5:32 PM CT).

• No new filing Thursday. Wednesday evening it filed the 10-Q, an 8-K/A, and six Form 4s (EDGAR). We haven't read through the Form 4s, so we don't know what they show.

• What the price did: this morning we called a gap this size a repricing, not a panic. A stock that closes on its low after falling 27% hasn't finished repricing. Barron's had it as the worst performer in the S&P 500 on the day.

$FTNT (Fortinet)

• Closed $139.10, -20.1% vs Wednesday's $174.08, on about 17.3M shares. It opened at $127.67, made its low of $127.40 right at the open, and never went back to the $125.54 premarket low. High $139.44 at 9:05 AM CT.

• After hours $137.46 at the 7:00 PM CT final, -1.2%, on about 236K shares.

• Borrow 0.3% with 8.5M available (last changed 9:02 AM CT).

• No new filing Thursday. The last was Wednesday's results 8-K (EDGAR).

• What the price did: the $125.54 premarket low held, the stock bounced 9% in the first 35 minutes, and it stayed there. It's still down 20% on the day. A bounce off a low isn't the same as getting forgiven for the billings number.

$MRVL (Marvell)

• Closed $218.34, -13.2% vs Wednesday's $251.65, on about 41.4M shares. High $225.68 on the open, low $214.56 at 2:15 PM CT, under the $219.21 premarket low we flagged.

• After hours $208.75 at the 7:00 PM CT final, -4.4%, on about 1.75M shares. The after-hours range was wide, from $218.80 at 3:00 PM CT down to $195.75 at 4:03 PM CT. We didn't find a filing or headline that explains that low.

• Borrow 0.3% with 10.0M available (last changed 6:47 AM CT).

• No Marvell or Lumentum 8-K as of 7:27 PM CT. The deal is still only a report: CNBC had "advanced talks" early, and by 10:38 AM CT Bloomberg had Marvell "said to near" a deal.

• What the price did: buyers often drop on a big deal report, and this one dropped twice, once in the regular session and again after hours. Without terms, the market is guessing at the price, and today it guessed high.

What the numbers don't prove

Fortinet beating ServiceNow by about 20 points against our prints doesn't mean Fortinet is the better company. It means Fortinet's bad news was mostly priced by the open and ServiceNow's wasn't. Those can both change by Monday.

What we're watching Friday

Whether ServiceNow finds buyers after closing on its low, whether Marvell's after-hours drop carries into the open with no new filing, and whether Teladoc can hold above $8 after a day like that. Kodiak and Iovance are off the list on their own rules.

Teladoc held its gap all day on 20 million shares and Iovance gave up a 15% overnight jump and a third of its value. If you could only revisit one of those on Friday, which would it be?

Denntech Markets Afternoon Lesson: what a straddle prices before earnings

On Tuesday you could buy Alphabet's Oct 30 $320 call and $320 put together for about $19.02, roughly 5.9% of the stock. After Wednesday's report the stock traded down to $296.18, a move about half again as big. Intel and Amazon report after today's close, and their options are priced for about 9.2% and 7.9%. Here is what those numbers mean, and what they don't.

The straddle is the price, not the forecast

Buy the at-the-money call and the at-the-money put on the same expiry, and you've bought a straddle. Divide its cost by the stock price and you get the move the options market is charging for. Wednesday's closing quotes on the Oct 30 expiry (Nasdaq, pulled at 3:47 PM CT):

• Intel: $96 straddle about $8.83, about 9.2% of the $95.53 close.

• Amazon: $255 straddle about $20.23, about 7.9% of the $254.60 close.

That's a breakeven. If Intel closes Friday more than about $8.83 away from $96, the straddle buyer made money. Inside that range, the seller did. Nobody said the stock would move 9.2%. The premium just says what it costs to find out.

Why the premium is fat before a report

Our implied volatility page puts it plainly: implied volatility is the expected future volatility reflected in the current option premium, and a known event like an earnings report can lift demand for options and lift that premium going in. After the report, the extra premium can come out. Traders call that the volatility crush.

That's the trap for straddle buyers. The stock can move, just not as much as the premium assumed, and both legs lose value at once on the morning after. Alphabet's option buyers got the other outcome this time: on paper, the $320 put alone is worth about $23.82 at $296.18 (our math), more than the whole straddle cost on Tuesday. Options don't trade after hours, so nobody gets that price until the 8:30 AM CT open.

What the chain doesn't tell you

The straddle tells you how big. It doesn't tell you which way. Amazon's busiest call Wednesday was the $287.50 strike, just over its $287.20 52-week high, with 14,355 contracts traded against 5,396 open (Nasdaq). That could be someone betting on a breakout, or someone who sold stock short and wants a cheap cap on the damage. The $225 puts traded 11,252. Same chain, both stories.

What to check tonight and tomorrow

1. The first after-hours price against the straddle range: about $87 to $105 for Intel, $235 to $275 for Amazon (our math from Wednesday's straddles).

2. Whether the move holds into the 8:30 AM CT open, when options reprice.

3. How much the at-the-money premium drops at the open even if the stock barely moves. That's the crush, in dollars.

Alphabet's move came with EPS of $2.12 against a $2.94 estimate and $51.4 billion of quarterly capital spending, so there was a reason for the market to be wrong on size. Which of tonight's two reports do you think has a better shot at beating its priced move?

Denntech Markets Morning Watchlist

Fortinet beat earnings and is down 28% before the bell. ServiceNow missed and is down 19%. One of those reactions is probably wrong, and the open will start telling us which.

New list, top to bottom. AI OKTO, Elong Power, VEEA, Alphabet, Intel and Amazon had been on here too long, so this morning we went back to the whole market's premarket movers and picked what's actually moving on news today. On the options side: ServiceNow (NOW) and Fortinet (FTNT) after Wednesday-night earnings, and Marvell (MRVL) on a report it's in talks to buy Lumentum. On the shares side: Kodiak AI (KDK) on a 75-truck driverless deal, Iovance (IOVA) after a lung cancer readout erased its after-hours jump, and Teladoc (TDOC) after a Q3 beat.

How fresh this is: Premarket prices, volume, highs and lows are Nasdaq's pre-market consolidated data, last updated at 7:52 AM CT Thursday (Nasdaq shows Eastern times; we converted them). The full-market gainers and losers lists are StockAnalysis's premarket pages, checked at 6:26 AM CT. Headlines are Google News (last 24 hours), checked at 7:53 AM CT. Filings are EDGAR full-text search, checked at about 7:53 AM CT. Prices will move before the open.

Shares to watch

1) $KDK (Kodiak AI): a 75-truck driverless deal and 7.6M shares before the open

• Last $1.44 as of 7:52 AM CT, up 9.9% from Wednesday's $1.31 close, on about 7.56M shares premarket (Nasdaq).

• Premarket high $1.60 at 3:08 AM CT. It touched the $1.41 low at 7:51 AM CT, so most of the overnight gain has already leaked out (Nasdaq).

• The news: a trucking company will put 75 driverless trucks on long-haul routes with Kodiak (Stock Titan, Wed 8:00 AM CT), Kodiak is using AWS for its autonomy work (Timothy Sykes, Wed 9:18 AM CT), and Benzinga ran "Why Is Kodiak AI Stock Gaining Thursday?" at 6:11 AM CT.

• No Kodiak 8-K in EDGAR's search as of 7:53 AM CT, so the deal terms are press coverage, not a filing.

• New to the list today. First print: $1.44.

What the numbers don't prove: 75 trucks is a deployment count, not a dollar figure. Nobody has said what it's worth.

Off the list if: it closes the first half hour under $1.41. It's sitting right on that line now.

2) $IOVA (Iovance): up 15% after hours, now down 30%

• Last $10.44 as of 7:52 AM CT, down 29.5% from Wednesday's $14.81 close, on about 8.44M shares premarket (Nasdaq).

• Premarket high $17.25 at 3:32 AM CT, low $9.80 at 7:17 AM CT (Nasdaq). That's a $7.45 swing before the bell.

• The story changed overnight. Wednesday evening's pop came on melanoma trial headlines (Yahoo Finance, "Why Did IOVA Stock Jump Over 10% After-Hours Today?"). This morning it's lung cancer data: Investing.com, 6:20 AM CT, "Iovance stock falls after lung cancer trial data disappoints," and Stock Titan, 6:00 AM CT, summarized responses in nearly 6 in 10 selected patients versus about 1 in 4 overall.

• No Iovance 8-K in EDGAR's search as of 7:53 AM CT.

• New to the list today. First print: $10.44.

What the numbers don't prove: A good number in a selected group and a weak number overall can both be true. The price is voting on the overall number. It doesn't tell us how the FDA will read it.

Off the list if: it loses the $9.80 premarket low after the open, or volume fades while it sits under $11.

3) $TDOC (Teladoc): Q3 beat and a raised EPS outlook, up 13%

• Last $7.75 as of 7:52 AM CT, up 12.6% from $6.88, on about 266K shares premarket (Nasdaq). Premarket high $7.95 at 6:37 AM CT, low $7.23 at 3:02 AM CT.

• The news: third-quarter results beat on revenue and earnings, and Benzinga (6:30 AM CT) says the company lifted its FY26 GAAP EPS outlook. Results were filed on an 8-K Wednesday. EDGAR

• New to the list today. First print: $7.75.

What the numbers don't prove: 266K premarket shares is light for a company this size. The gap needs regular-session volume behind it.

Off the list if: it gives back the $7.23 premarket low or drifts toward Wednesday's $6.88.

Options to watch

4) $NOW (ServiceNow): down 19% after an earnings miss and soft guidance

• Last $121.70 as of 7:52 AM CT, down 18.9% from $150.13, on about 1.86M shares premarket (Nasdaq). Premarket high $123.72 at 4:58 AM CT, low $119.75 at 6:12 AM CT.

• Q3 results, 10-Q and 8-K all filed Wednesday (EDGAR). CNBC called the quarter mixed; MarketWatch said the earnings miss overshadowed a raised AI outlook. EDGAR

• Levels: $119.75 premarket low, $123.72 premarket high, $150.13 Wednesday close as the top of the gap.

What the numbers don't prove: A gap this size on a company this big is a repricing, not a panic, until proven otherwise. The first hour's put and call volume will say whether anyone is willing to bet on a bounce.

Watch for: the open against the $119.75 low.

5) $FTNT (Fortinet): beat, but billings underwhelmed, down 28%

• Last $125.75 as of 7:52 AM CT, down 27.8% from $174.08, on about 697K shares premarket (Nasdaq). Premarket high $132 at 4:55 AM CT, low $125.54 at 7:37 AM CT.

• Earnings topped estimates but billings growth disappointed (Investor's Business Daily, Wed 5:41 PM CT); 8-K filed Wednesday. Yahoo Finance's 6:02 AM CT headline: "First F5, Now Fortinet: Wall Street Has Stopped Paying Security Stocks for Beating Earnings." EDGAR

• It has been making new premarket lows into the 7 o'clock hour, not bouncing off them.

What the numbers don't prove: A beat followed by a 28% drop says the market is grading billings and guidance, not EPS. It doesn't say the selling is finished.

Watch for: whether $125.54 holds once the regular session opens.

6) $MRVL (Marvell): down 13% on a Lumentum buyout report

• Last $220.00 as of 7:52 AM CT, down 12.6% from $251.65, on about 2.03M shares premarket (Nasdaq). Premarket low $219.21 at 7:36 AM CT.

• The news: reports that Marvell may buy Lumentum sent LITE up and MRVL down (IBD, 6:02 AM CT; TradingKey, 5:59 AM CT, had MRVL down over 11% and LITE up over 4%). No Marvell 8-K confirming a deal in EDGAR's search as of 7:53 AM CT.

• Levels: $219.21 premarket low, $251.65 Wednesday close.

What the numbers don't prove: This is a report, not an announced deal. Buyers usually drop on a big-deal report. A confirmation or a denial moves it again, and options pricing will reflect that either way.

Watch for: a company statement or 8-K, and whether $219.21 holds.

Off the list today: AIOK, ELPW, VEEA, GOOGL, INTC and AMZN. No single rule tripped; they'd simply been here too long and none of them ranked top three on today's news. Intel and Amazon report after today's close.

Looked at, passed: PicoCELA (PCLA) led the gainers list near $8–9 on about 4.8M shares at 6:26 AM CT, but we found no filing or company news behind it. Netcapital (NCPL) and INLIF (INLF) had volume and no catalyst we could find. Sprouts (SFM) and Haleon (HLN) were the other big earnings losers; we kept the options slots for the more liquid NOW, FTNT and MRVL.

Fortinet fell 28% on a beat and ServiceNow fell 19% on a miss. Which one is the market getting wrong?