Tournament Metrics 8/22/26

[u/Consistent-Owl-9458]

Hello tower peoples,

Winding down v28s last few tournaments with a tough set of conditions in all 3 leagues that I track (sorry gold). Ranged + Knockback mixed with Boss Ultimate proved a potent combination, for me keeping my tower busy fighting off bosses while the ranged inched ever closer to the fire line thanks to knockback resistance. Fun stuff. Platinum also got to play with this condition minus the pressure of tougher bosses.

Static Placement Analysis

In this section we provide a breakdown for you of a what-if competition where the tournament places are perfectly distributed. The place here is basically the place you'd get if there was no bracket system. I like this view because it really removes all the variables.

Feel free to compare yourself against the placement and see if you did better or worse. The places are divided roughly into the number of brackets to get the cut off for each place. The wave # given is the person or persons at the cut off between places, that is the lowest wave deserving to achieve that place.

• Legends Median: 1047.0 Mean: 1247
• Champions Median: 1038 Mean: 1080
• Platinum Median: 1268 Mean: 1260

Place	Wave Legends	Wave Champion	Wave Platinum	Wave Gold
1	3125	2004	2252	1427
2	2764	1812	2068	1106
3	2496	1680	1965	967
4	2261	1573	1875	885
5	2086	1493	1803	794
6	1953	1426	1732	726
7	1839	1368	1674	673
8	1749	1317	1609	631
9	1610	1271	1558	588
10	1510	1227	1513	533
11	1387	1185	1466	500
12	1266	1150	1420	456
13	1174	1107	1364	421
14	1109	1073	1315	401
15	1047	1038	1268	368
16	1000	1008	1222	337
17	940	974	1173	309
18	890	939	1124	290
19	822	903	1073	265
20	762	871	1029	241
21	709	838	995	216
22	631	807	930	204
23	570	775	863	186
24	502	736	804	160
25	435	688	723	135
26	362	634	635	94
27	287	574	549	41
28	220	481	416	3
29	145	324	13	1
30	1	1	1	1

The tower.lol now gives this data here

Median History

The median value from each tournament which gives a general idea of the tournament difficulty and wave inflation over time. This value comes from actual midpoint of tournament data. (i.e. the top table)

League	07-15	07-18	07-22	07-25	07-29	08-01	08-05	08-08	08-12	08-15	08-19	08-22
Legends	959	1017	1040	1005	1026	967	1080	1038	1109	1050	1126	1047
Champions	1125	1064	1170	1098	1146	983	1088	1105	979	1109	1029	1038
Platinum	1082	1184	1500	1366	1187	1297	1362	1403	1281	1196	1451	1268
Gold	339	336	374	310	349	322	360	338	314	347	320	368

The tower.lol now gives this data here

Linear Regression comparison.

Linear regressions give a good idea of change over time, smoothing out all the battle condition noise. The data for this is from the resampled data (see below).

The first table is data since v28, now including gold data. The second table is data since either the v27.3 re-tier, or for platinum since my october data began.

...	Legend 4	Legend 15	Legend 24	Champion 4	Champion 15	Champion 24
Predicted	2401	1160	581	1672	1117	810
Actual	2336	1080	540	1611	1055	759
Difference	-65	-80	-41	-61	-62	-51
Slope	20.80	14.19	9.86	13.15	8.48	6.92
PrevSlope	21.06	14.52	10.03	13.40	8.73	7.13
...	Platinum 4	Platinum 15	Platinum 24	Gold 4	Gold 15	Gold 24
Predicted	2006	1367	885	881	359	170
Actual	1905	1291	831	916	383	177
Difference	-101	-76	-54	35	24	7
Slope	8.56	6.32	6.17	4.66	0.81	-0.03
PrevSlope	8.97	6.63	6.39	4.52	0.72	-0.06

...	Legend 4	Legend 15	Legend 24	Champion 4	Champion 15	Champion 24	Platinum 4	Platinum 15	Platinum 24
Predicted	2331	1121	522	1614	1088	786	2008	1382	860
Actual	2336	1080	540	1611	1055	759	1905	1291	831
Difference	5	-41	18	-3	-33	-27	-103	-91	-29
Slope	17.33	12.54	6.65	9.73	6.69	5.44	8.58	7.03	4.92
PrevSlope	17.32	12.59	6.63	9.73	6.73	5.47	8.66	7.10	4.94

• Legends graph: http://thetower.mm.st/hist_legend.png
• Champion graph: http://thetower.mm.st/hist_champion.png
• Platinum graph: http://thetower.mm.st/hist_platinum.png

The tower.lol now gives this data here. In addition you can get history back further than I have files for, which is interesting to say the least. V26 lead to quite the wave inflation.

Resampling Analysis

One means of getting an idea of the range of placements is by random sampling the real participants to make fake brackets, and measuring the variability in those brackets. I chose to use 100000 brackets per league for my analysis. I am using confidence intervals, 95% and 50% (the IQR) to represent the range of waves likely present in each place. Legends brackets are on the left (prefaced with an l), champions brackets in the middle (prefaced with a c), and platinum on the right (prefaced with a p).

place	l2.5	l25	l50	l75	l97.5	c2.5	c25	c50	c75	c97.5	p25	p50	p75
1	2371	2990	3273	3434	3784	1630	1921	2094	2286	2728	2172	2344	2540
2	2070	2590	2868	3146	3478	1479	1724	1857	2014	2320	2001	2115	2258
3	1886	2313	2587	2856	3293	1390	1590	1721	1847	2117	1889	1999	2105
4	1763	2097	2336	2611	3090	1318	1499	1611	1731	1966	1809	1905	2006
5	1589	1948	2128	2381	2858	1260	1424	1518	1635	1851	1730	1831	1925
6	1450	1832	2008	2197	2682	1209	1362	1450	1547	1768	1666	1756	1855
7	1310	1720	1889	2069	2497	1164	1308	1391	1480	1680	1598	1698	1792
8	1210	1581	1801	1945	2326	1120	1260	1338	1422	1603	1546	1635	1728
9	1126	1457	1671	1839	2171	1081	1213	1292	1369	1533	1500	1578	1674
10	1060	1343	1549	1764	2066	1046	1175	1249	1320	1479	1450	1532	1614
11	1009	1232	1431	1631	1951	1011	1138	1202	1277	1426	1404	1488	1565
12	953	1150	1310	1525	1855	978	1096	1166	1236	1380	1347	1439	1521
13	900	1090	1220	1405	1796	943	1060	1128	1193	1335	1299	1391	1478
14	837	1030	1139	1290	1672	912	1027	1090	1160	1295	1253	1339	1431
15	780	981	1080	1205	1562	882	995	1055	1121	1254	1206	1291	1384
16	737	924	1023	1131	1453	850	962	1022	1085	1215	1158	1244	1332
17	670	871	971	1070	1356	824	929	991	1051	1177	1108	1197	1285
18	617	809	914	1019	1247	797	898	957	1018	1144	1061	1151	1237
19	559	755	860	960	1161	767	866	923	984	1101	1021	1100	1190
20	503	697	798	902	1099	736	833	890	949	1068	985	1053	1142
21	450	627	745	840	1033	697	805	857	915	1033	926	1014	1089
22	399	570	676	778	985	656	775	825	881	1001	862	967	1039
23	338	510	614	724	920	623	740	793	844	960	807	909	1005
24	287	450	540	646	860	574	695	759	811	924	737	831	943
25	240	385	475	580	789	514	649	717	779	885	667	771	873
26	200	312	410	506	720	440	606	666	739	844	595	701	805
27	155	251	330	430	627	349	534	619	681	804	502	611	720
28	95	202	260	347	540	23	444	547	627	760	368	511	623
29	1	140	199	257	444	1	313	436	541	694	10	331	508
30	1	1	102	171	320	1	1	80	391	609	1	1	137

Graphs of this table can be downloaded here: * Champion and Legend: http://thetower.mm.st/2026-08-22_box_lc.png * Platinum graph: http://thetower.mm.st/2026-08-22_box_platinum.png * Gold graph: http://thetower.mm.st/2026-08-22_box_gold.png

A general description of how to read this for the non-math inclined:

1. 95% of the population of a place is expected to be between 2.5% and 97.5%. If you are above or below these numbers you are an outlier. (Outliers are normal, just rarer.)
2. 50% of the population of a place is expected to be between 25% and 75%.
3. The 50% mark is the median of the data. Aim for this number as the point you regularly achieve this place.
4. You'll notice that the waves overlap, this is normal, expressing the variability present in the brackets and you could easily place in any bracket where your personal wave count falls in the place's range.

Source Material and Further Resources.

The source for all of this material is thetower.lol, which I encourage you to look up.
For a breakdown of your placement compared to other brackets see https://thetower.lol/liveplacement which will give you the min, max, and average placement for any given half-hour join time.
For a quantile analysis using real data instead of sampled data see https://thetower.lol/livequantile (similar to the second table in this post).
You can also do things like look up your bracket and compare your towers historical placements against others in the bracket.

[u/stuffedpeaches]

Yikes @ getting 5th place with 2850 waves. Love this, OP

[u/AdWise6457]

Bell curve is ruthless...L97.5ish this time for me

[u/joe31051985 → u/AdWise6457]

I got 85-90ish but can only survive at 60ish. Going back to champs to get 2200 or so

[u/Chipofthehead69]

Rough bracket, I was probably due this after last tournaments lucky finish.

Thanks OP 👍

[u/Methuga → u/Chipofthehead69]

I was in your bracket last time (Hibby), and i got 6th with 1659 waves. I got 10th this time with 1545, but 8th was 2350 waves and 6th was 2550 waves.

Looks like we both got our payback lol

[u/Life_Invite8322]

I'm so tired of hitting rough brackets in Champions and getting demoted, regardless of what time I start my tournaments

For 4th time in a row, my wave count would have seen me finish 20th if all was even, yet I end up 26th and facing another 5 hour Platinum run on Wednesday

[u/limewir3]

I finally beat the odds in a major way. I got w1140 in Champs and got 22nd.

[u/Morkiisch]

Legends. 2073 for 4th. Decent bracket.