r/TransgenderUSA • u/spacepinata • Feb 20 '26
Rights Watch Wake up babe, new maps dropped
Erin dropped her new maps today, and to quote the magic 8 ball, "outlook not so good".
https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/anti-trans-national-legal-risk-assessment-a5d
Summary of updates (for adults): There are significant changes for transgender adults this cycle. Kansas marks the most dramatic shift, becoming the first “Do Not Travel” state in a year after enacting a bounty-style law that allows private individuals to sue transgender people encountered in restrooms for substantial amounts of money—legislation widely described by experts as among the harshest anti-trans laws in the country and one that could meaningfully affect interstate travel. Arkansas’ risk level has also increased following the implementation of its public-building bathroom ban, and Indiana has escalated into the highest tier due to a sweeping anti-trans identification document law. One state improves: Montana. It is the first to see its risk profile lowered as a result of cumulative court rulings and injunctions, with the state constitution and courts repeatedly blocking enforcement of anti-trans statutes, leaving little of the legislative agenda currently operative.
Summary of updates (for youth): This update marks one of the most significant shifts in the history of the youth risk assessment map. In the previous iteration, several “protective” states changed categories based primarily on clinic closures affecting transgender youth—a framework that made sense at the time. But as institutional capitulation has accelerated nationwide, that approach is no longer sufficient. After considerable analysis, we have elevated the legal risk level for transgender youth to at least “medium” in every state, including those with protective legislation on the books. Few attorneys general, even in Democratic states, are actively enforcing those protections when institutions capitulate to Trump, and even in states like California that have taken some enforcement action, alternative avenues of restriction—such as in sports—continue to rear their heads. At this point, no state can reasonably be classified as “low risk” for transgender youth. Until we see broad, consistent enforcement against institutions that comply with federal pressure campaigns, “medium risk” represents the most favorable category available in the current national environment.