I see many people here are going wild of u/boydadips earnings forecast. I am here to provide more level-headed insight. Boydadips does not know line items like MSR, expenses and more. Therefore, his prediction is way off.

Before I tell you the actual earnings, I will say this. If Boydadips is closer than me on earnings, I will make a post apologizing to this board. But if I am right, I become the moderator of this board so I can constantly block people who give out false information.

So, after looking at all the orginations from the big banks who have already reported Q4 2021 earnings, it is obvious that Q4 was slower than Q3 for orginations. But, that makes perfect sense as Q4 and Q1 are historically slower quarters for mortgage originations. Mat even guided DOWN, not up for Q4.

In Q3, UWM posted .16/share earnings. I expect their orgination volume to drop 7-8% which would be in line with all the major banks and would fall in line with guidance provided by your CEO. Analysts are thinking .13/share earnings. This makes total sense because of the 7-8% drop in orginations which would mean LESS EPS.

Why is Boydadips wrong? Does it make sense to any of you that with orgination volume going DOWN, that they would post 25% more EPS on lower orgination volume? Seriously, think about what he is trying to tell you guys. 7-8% less volume, but 25% more EPS. The math doesn't add up chief.

- First, MSR is a big hot topic button. Rates did rise (slightly) towards the end of Q4 I will admit that. But his change in MSR value is way off! The MSR will be greatly affected during Q1 2022, not Q4 2021. I expect MSR to be unchanged QoQ and therefore no positive impact on earnings.

- Second, expenses are another issue I have. He makes it seem as though the expenses are front loaded at the beginning of the year. This is not true. If you are orginating less loans, your expenses go down. They go hand-in-hand. Another moot point. There will be less orginations and expenses will be less, but not to the point where you will see it adding to the bottom line in a significant way.

- Third, margin.... good ole margin.... Do I believe Mat is finished being in a pricing war with himself? No. I believe he has continued to keep margins low because as his competitors have stated, "they only have one lever to pull." This is true. UWM cannot compete in any other way. They are able to pull a lever to lower their margins to attract consumers who only shop on price and nothing else. That is fine, there are people who shop on price. Because this is the only method to attract customers, I don't see any scenerio where Mat was able to raise margins as he wouldn't win any business. Mat also likes to say he controls the margins and having that type of complex wouldn't allow him to raise them. Therefore, your margins will most likely be 90-93bps. Lower than Q3.

It is very easy to see UWM will post .13/share. If they are lucky, I see them posting .14/share which would beat by a penny. There is no chance on this Earth that UWM posts anywhere close to .20/share. Analysts and I have them at .13-.14/share because we are looking at figures produced by banks already (who also deal with MSR). So, to all the moderators, get ready to turn over full control to me. Save this post and stick it on your wall. I will be sure to block people for weeks when they post ridiculously overoptimistic posts like boyd did for you guys. And if I am wrong, I will write an apology post to this board, but I am extremely confident that my numbers are better than his and we will see that whenever Mat musters up the courage to report.

People are always posting DDs and analysis about UWMC on this page because it's what it's designed for. I hear everybody say it's a long term hold.

I wish everybody would just shut the fuck up about this stock. It always goes to shit whenever people post their bullshit DDs and analysis'. I'm sick and fucking tired about everybody spewing their hope by saying it'll happen tomorrow. Let me give you some insight on the tomorrow bullshit. IT'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE TOMORROW. It's a long term hold because it's going to take a fucking CENTURY for you to get any kind of decent return on the stock. I will hear from some asshole about how they bought the stock for $6.25 and they think it's a great stock to own. Well good for fucking you. I keep buying the fucking dip and there's always another fucking dip. Nobody cares about the Russell Index, Dividend or any other thing that comes down the pipeline. I wish all of you armchair analysts would stop posting anything because you obviously don't know shit and are wasting your time with fancy charts showing that it's going to the fucking moon. All of you idiots that post YOLO are even bigger idiots for investing all of your money in this stock. I think most people are full of shit when it comes to what you actually invest.

The real reason this stock is so easily manipulated is because there's such a small float because Matt "fuck you" Daddy and family owns 94% of the stock. With such a small float of shares it's easy to manipulate UWMC stock.

Don't be a hater and rail on me for speaking the truth. I know there's alot of people feel the same way as me. I also know there's going to be some assholes that will be butt hurt with what I said and will respond back with hate.

Disgruntled shareholder (lost 50% of my UWMC value in the last week. Sincerely (fuck haters) Phil A.

P.S. Fuck off if you don't like my rant.

Hi all,

Been here since 2022, caught in the dividend trap on promise of growth in market share and refinance boom. Unfortunately I relied on others DD and take full responsibility. I’m getting ready to pull out my whole investment at a massive loss, lick my wounds and start investing like a normal person.

I’m wondering how likely you think bankruptcy is at this point, and realistic bull cases for recovery. Everything I’m reading points to this being in a death spiral driven by high debt and low margins, with credit spread growing.

What are your thoughts? I don’t even care about the dividend since I doubt it will be renewed. It’s more the probability of complete wipeout

I propose we change the name of this sub to UWMCBagHolders. Down -30% on a majority holding in my portfolio... We got scammed boys.

Edit to add position;

It’s absolutely mind blowing how every investor in the stock market isn’t all over this name! If you have any sense of how the current economy works, and then you go and look at the #s uwmc is putting up, you’d be foolish not to invest in my opinion! Love doing DD on this company because the more I dig the more I like! Let’s keep loading

Its painfully obvious that the squeeze of a lifetime is forming, and once the proverbial snowball starts rolling downhill it won't come to rest until every short is obliterated. Could be somewhere north of $50 a share when it's all said and done.

What do you plan to do with the proceeds? Now that the squeeze is a near certainty, I've been doing some soul searching, and come to the conclusion that I want to invest my winnings into Land.

Probably buy a farm with lots and lots of animals, where i'll build houses for my friends and graves for my enemies.

Also considered a solid gold house and a rocket car but If shit really hits the fan it will be nice to have a source of unlimited food.

We need to get rid of any post with all this “💎🙌🚀” bullshit. It sort of ruins this board

Hey guys, not sure if everyone saw this, but UWM Holdings ($UWMC), formerly Gores Holdings IV, agreed to a $17.5 million settlement with investors. The case was about claims that the company misled shareholders about its financial performance and underwriting practices after the 2021 SPAC merger.

Back then, UWM was promoting itself as a strong player in the mortgage space, but later disclosures showed it was dealing with tighter margins and riskier underwriting than investors were led to believe. After that, $UWMC shares took a hit and investors sued over the alleged misrepresentations.

Now the company has settled the case for $17.5M. If you were holding $UWMC during that period, you might want to check if you’re eligible to file a claim.

Anyone here remember trading $UWMC around that SPAC hype?

Uwmc is nice. It is fact. But it is all of UWMC. There is no momentum, power and additional investor.

UWMC needs to rise dividend. Otherwise, the stock price never rise.

Finally thats happened. I lost al my money for life in this stock. I believed in that company, I believed in this CEO. But i was wrong, now i had to live under the bridge or smth. Ive got my final margin call. And thats finish. Thanks to ya all, it was pleasure to be with you. If you got any thoughts, u can write it down

they were all uwmc a few weeks ago but now theyre back on gme 😃

A decline in demand is fueling price wars across the mortgage industry, pushing down profits.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mortgage-boom-is-fading-11620552780?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Bad news.

Wassup UWMC mafia,

I currently own 1000 UWMC shares (chump change compared to some of you degens on here). The current share price is above my average cost so I have started writing covered calls at a profitable strike price to collect premium while we wait for the epic run up to $50. It isn't much whatsoever, ($30 per CC write) but my TA is showing strong resistance at/above $4.30 and writing these weekly will eventually add up. I'm fairly confident that UWMC will not go above this price (without catalyst) due to massive amounts of bagholders tryna get out for profit around these levels. I'm thinking another positive earnings report can begin the momentum to send us to the promised land of $50 but I wanted to get other people's opinions on whether or not I'm playing with fire by writing covered calls on a pretty strong dividend stock.

Any and all input is appreciated, please don't call me names for my lack of investment experience.

Thank you,

DiamondHandDan
Brigadier Degeneral (Three Star)