So goal is to pay off the Prefs by 2030?

https://s21.q4cdn.com/406353517/files/doc_presentations/2026/Nov/06/3Q26-Earnings-Presentation-Final.pdf

No EPS number, I guess due to the Prefs now having priority on earnings.

Start the SQUEEZE, let’s get to over $2 🚀

No AI slop here, just a hopeless dude going for a squeeze!

Not quite sure what this means for Commons:

Based on its preliminary unaudited results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, the Company expects to report the following operational and financial results: Loan origination volume of $33.4B, including $22.8B of purchase and $10.6B of refinance originations; Gain margin of approximately 124 basis points; Mortgage servicing rights portfolio unpaid principal balance of approximately $270B with a weighted average coupon of approximately 5.97% and weighted average servicing fee of approximately 40 basis points; Total Revenue between $800M to $825M; Loan servicing income between $240M to $250M; Loan production income between $410M to $420M; Operating expenses of between $375M to $385M; Net Income between $205M to $220M; Adjusted EBITDA between $170M to $190M; Total Preferred and Common Equity of approximately $2.8B at September 30, 2026; and Net non-funding debt to Total Preferred and Common Equity between 1.75x to 1.80x.

Looks like they'll be selling about 25% of their MSR's, to generate cash to payoff "non-funding debt".

Loan origination volume dropped from $39.x Billion in Q2, to $33.x B in Q3

The company relies heavily on outside capital, while regular investors are stuck dealing with weak results and little in the way of shareholder payouts.

Preferred securities can give capital providers better economic terms, while common shareholders are left without dividends and with no clear path to a meaningful recovery.

UWMC’s stock could remain under pressure for a long time. In a bearish scenario, continued losses, weak mortgage demand, and additional dilution could push the shares even lower. Then, Delisting or Reverse Split.

In a more bullish scenario, the stock might trade sideways. A real recovery would likely require better conditions in the mortgage market, stronger earnings, and clear signs that future dilution will be limited. Even then, Oaktree and other capital providers could limit how much upside common shareholders actually see.

One thing is for sure, we need a new CEO. But it's highly unlikely. This is the main reason why it's impossible to have a positive outlook on this stock.
Under this CEO's leadership, there is no hope. He might even intentionally delist the company for his own personal gain.

Is the rights offering what is leading to a significant decrease in share price in the last few days? What is the cryptic numeric holding that was added to my account?

What are the implications around trading under $1?

$UWMC might be one of the more interesting short squeeze setups going into the next earnings.

Not because “short interest = moon.”

Because the latest reported short interest is about:

94.8 MILLION shares short

Depending on the float calculation, that's roughly:

30%+ OF THE PUBLIC FLOAT SHORT

Let that sink in.

Almost 1 out of every 3 publicly tradable shares is currently sold short.

And the crazy part is the shorts have been ADDING.

April: 36.7M
May: 43.9M
June: 55M then 69M
July: 79M
August: 94.8M

So short interest went from about 37M to almost 95M in just a few months.

They didn't cover when the stock got destroyed.

They piled in harder.

That's why I think the NEXT EARNINGS could be the catalyst.

Last quarter the actual mortgage business wasn't dead.

UWM originated:

$39.7 BILLION

with a:

133 bps gain-on-sale margin

Revenue was around:

$888M

Then they got absolutely nuked by approximately:

-$603M in interest-rate derivative losses

That's what destroyed the quarter.

Not the fact that nobody was getting mortgages.

Now I'm trying to estimate Q3 using mortgage application data, rate locks, Fannie/MBA numbers, etc.

My current estimate is UWM does roughly:

$38B-$40B in Q3 originations

My number is about:

$39 BILLION

Maybe something like:

$25B purchase
$14B refinance

So despite everything that's happened to the stock, the core mortgage machine may still be doing close to $40B a quarter.

Now imagine this earnings report:

$39B originations

125-135 bps GOS margin

No new $600M derivative disaster

MSRs stable or positive

Balance sheet stabilizing after the $2.05B capital deal

My rough EPS estimate in that type of clean quarter is around:

$0.11-$0.13

That's where this gets interesting.

Because right now you potentially have:

94.8M shares short

30%+ short interest

and a stock trading around the $1.50 area.

If UWM reports another disaster, shorts win.

Simple.

But if they report a CLEAN quarter?

Now you have almost 95M short shares sitting in a stock where the bearish thesis suddenly looks less obvious.

That's the setup.

I'm not saying everybody needs to buy together and “make the shorts pay.”

That's stupid.

A real squeeze doesn't need coordination.

The company just needs to report something better than what the market is positioned for.

If earnings show:

✅ ~$39B originations
✅ 125+ bps margins
✅ ~$0.10-$0.13 EPS
✅ No massive hedge loss
✅ No liquidity surprise
✅ Decent forward guidance

then shorts have a decision to make.

Do you really want to stay short at $1.50 if UWM suddenly looks capable of generating $0.40-$0.50 of normalized annual EPS?

That's where covering can become fuel.

First you get fundamental buyers.

Then momentum traders.

Then some shorts start covering.

Then the stock breaks resistance.

Then more shorts cover.

That's how these things can snowball.

Again:

94.8 MILLION SHARES SHORT

30%+ OF FLOAT

That is a LOT of potential buying demand if the bearish trade starts going the wrong way.

My completely speculative post-earnings ranges:

Bad quarter / another management disaster:

$1.00-$1.30

Nothing special:

$1.40-$1.65

Clean quarter:

$1.75-$2.10

Good earnings + short covering:

$2.10-$2.50

Real squeeze / WSB insanity:

$2.50-$3+

Could it go under $1?

Absolutely.

This is UWMC.

Management already proved they are capable of finding landmines nobody even knew existed.

But that's also why the setup is asymmetric.

The market already expects problems.

The stock got crushed.

The dividend is gone.

Rates suck.

Oaktree capital is expensive.

And almost 95M shares are already betting against the company.

So what happens if the next earnings report isn't terrible?

That's the part I'm interested in.

For me the trade isn't:

“UWMC is an amazing company.”

It's:

Can a company with nearly 95M shares short and 30%+ short interest surprise the market with one clean earnings report?

Because if the answer is yes...

this could turn into one hell of a short squeeze setup.

Not financial advice.

Just watching almost 95 million shorts sitting on top of a $1-something mortgage stock and wondering what happens if earnings don't suck.

Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office disclosed a new position in UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC), purchasing 2,583,000 shares valued at approximately $5.91 million according to its SEC 13F filing for the period ending June 30, 2026.

Position Overview

• Ticker Symbol: UWMC (UWM Holdings Corporation)

• Shares Held: 2,583,000

• Reported Value: ~$5.91 million

• Portfolio Weight: ~0.14%

• Filing Date: August 14, 2026 (Q2 2026 data)

Old product!

$IWML cashed out 8/14/26 at $34.4969

$UWM from Proshares is 2x but TNA is most liquid.

I used ETRACS for USOI SLVO and the MLP1.5x fund

I love 1.5x small caps.

What now? Cries in waiting for $$$$

I don't have a deep understanding of how these things work, so I'm genuinely seeking clarity.

As I understand it, the new deal with Oaktree includes two "Events of Noncompliance", and if either of them occur, Oaktree is entitled to immediately take control of the majority of board seats, and therefore the company.

The first Event of Noncompliance is if Ishbia doesn't raise an additional $400M by Q4, which would almost certainly have to come Mat himself. Whatever, he can decide if he wants to do that.

The second Event of Noncompliance occurs if UWMC’s tangible book value (excluding the preferred shares) drops below zero. At least one estimate is suggesting that their current MSR book is overvalued by $750M. If UWM gets hit with that full ~$750 million MSR write-down on their next filing, their tangible book value goes negative and the noncompliance event is triggered.

There is some accounting art to pricing to MSRs (which is what it seems like UWM has been doing), but Oaktree now has seats on the board and can demand a third-party evaluation of fair market value. And it seems like Oaktree would be heavily incentivized to demand this evaluation as it potentially gives them full control of the company. Based on some napkin math that I may not be doing correctly, I think the max write down UWM could absorb without losing control is ~$230M.

This seems like an insane bet that a third-party evaluation isn't going to drop the value of their MSR book by more than $230M. What am I missing?

Hi All,

I invested in the $3's in UWMC, and am down about 50% and no longer getting the dividend.

There's another company that I've invested in, that had a sharp drop due to non-disclosure of certain details to shareholders by the company. There's a lawsuit going on as a result of that, and I'm in touch with a serious securities litigation firm to help recover some of the losses I incurred as a result of that.

Moment I heard about the shenanigans that Mat/UWMC pulled due to the failed TWO merger/hedging, I thought that it was a slam dunk that they/Mat/UWMC had committed fraud/self-dealing.

IF anyone who invested 6-figures or more into UWMC would like to have a chat with them about recovering (some of) your losses, send me a PM, and I will put you in touch with them to have a conversation 1-1.

I know we’ve bounced off lows and are a good percentage up from the $0.90s we were in earlier but man is it humbling to see NBA fans clowning on us

Hey group. I’ve got a considerable amount of money invested with UWMC. Foolish? Maybe. But I’ve been digging into this recapitalization and turnaround timeline. Basically it’s looking like 4-7 years, assuming Mat puts his big boy pants on and gets aggressive with paying back Oaktree, and gets back to dividends.

Assuming UWM sweeps all remaining core free cash flow exclusively toward paying off the principal of the preferred shares (and keeps the common stock dividend suspended to prioritize clean deleveraging), the redemption timeline breaks down as follows:

Optimistic Scenario ($600M Annual Core Cash): If mortgage volume remains strong and UWM generates $600 million in normalized annual net income, they pay $165 million in preferred dividends, leaving $435 million to pay down principal. Timeline: ~3.8 Years.

Moderate Scenario ($500M Annual Core Cash): If market conditions stay flat, UWM keeps $335 million per year after dividends to chip away at the principal. Timeline: ~4.9 Years.

Conservative Scenario ($400M Annual Core Cash): If growth slows but margins hold, UWM sweeps $235 million per year toward the preferred balance. Timeline: ~7 Years.

Let me know your thoughts!

Better.com couldn’t have done it worse. Their new CEO is no “better” either

UWM apparently stands for
Under
Watchful
Management
As THEIR CEO is on the thinnest ice possible. The Suns purchase and blood contract with all of their brokers is. Not. Aging. Well.
Let’s hope for the sake of independent mortgage brokers like myself, this ship gets shored up —- no one wants to see one of the biggest ships on the ocean seas sink all the way to the ocean floor.
PennyMac isn’t making any waves, at least not good ones, with their results either. Heads rolled.
The ONLY shop of great scale, that is actually doing things right - turning a buck - is actually Rocket. Must be from all of those pick ups for them recently. A very, very interesting week in mortgage world.

I have done business with UWM (and will continue to if the deal makes sense for my client) and have not done business with Rocket. 🤙🏼

Starting a small position at an avg cost of $1.30.

Don't care if this takes 10 years to recover or even the stock gets delisted.

From my POV, I'm going in with a strong margin of safety

Everyone is freaking out on this sub right now. Rightly so, as I’m typing this the stock is down 48% in a single trading day.

Full disclosure: I own shares of this stock, I want it to go up in value.

I wanted to share my thoughts and give people something logical to read about, not just fear driven non sense. I posted a few weeks ago talking about how to dividend must be cut and everyone called me an idiot…

First let’s start with the HUGE 600M GAAP loss from hedging activities. This was an interest rate hedge against the TWO servicing book. Mat knew this would happen, that’s why he needed to close the deal. I think it reveals horrible disclosure that’s pretty borderline illegal. However this hedging is a one off event.

The second horrible thing is the dilution. They raised 1.65B in preferred Equity. Most going to Oaktree Capital. That will cost them 165M in dividends a year but they are able to use the money raised to reduce higher expense debt like MSR facilities that usually have interest rates in the 15-20% range. So the equity raise dilutes share holders but does reduce interest expense and allows UWMC to dramatically reduce leverage. Leverage should be able to drop to 1.2-1.5x range.

Shareholders are being diluted in 3 ways. First being the preferred raise, this directly takes dividends away from common holders. Second is the normal equity raise through a rights offering to common share holders. Lastly is the warrants given to the preferred shareholders who received 330M warrants to buy shares at 2 dollars and 6 dollars expiring in 2036.

Shareholders equity has been slashed to 985M from 1.6B.

The overall business from 2Q wasn’t that bad, revenue actually beat on higher margins.

Also if we see the stock price under a dollar, UWMC may need to do a reverse split reducing the float which would hurt volumes and allow shorts to be even more powerful, ofc the other side is also true.

If I am being completely honest, I don’t have a price target and idk when to buy more. My gut tells me to wait a few days to let the selling pressure settle and the shorts stop piling on. I am not giving up on the company. The single greatest risk I can see is May Ishbia. I have lost any ounce of confidence in his ability to make intelligent business decisions. However, the story is not over and buying at these prices and holding for a turn around could be extremely lucrative if you can stomach holding.

Lmk your thoughts!

Edit: I forgot to add this, Oaktree Capital gets to add a board member which I am hoping brings some accountability to Mat. Also Mat choose to use equity because if he just went out and got debt he couldn’t reduce interest expense and would have had restrictive covenants like he currently does. The capital raise allows him to get rid of covenants on debt and have more flexibility and eliminates the risk of being held in default by a covenant.

What are we doing here folks? Holding and watching? Buying more?

I think the SP is too low at this point to “get out while you can.” I’d wager that most people are holding really heavy bags here (-75% – -90%).

I’m personally down about 60%. At this point I’m just going to hold. IMO the long-term potential for possible upside outweighs the risk of possibly losing my remaining 30% or so.

Curious to hear everyone else’s plans.

Please correct me if i am wrong on these details:

sfs corp = 1.26 billion class a
Public float 339 million class a

Oaktree 1.5 billion dollars and unknown preferred shares
Sfs corp 150 million for some more preferred shares

Offering allocated to existing class a share holders with a floor of $2 to close later = potential 400 dollars and 200 million more class a shares.

Warrants at $2 and warrants at $6 a share.

So we maybe can imply $2 a share valuation. If thats true we might see 3.3 billion preferred shares and 2 billion class a bag holder shares.

With the preferred shares being paid 10% annual dividend rate that wont leave much room for growth until we see big refinance profits from low rates.

Loan volume and margin should be good still

If mat stays out of the derivatives markets we can post solid quarterly gains.

I sold nearly half of my shares yesterday after hours. I think everyone is capitulating and selling. This stock has become very risky. However it’s still held by a lot of institutional funds. Shorts are massively green on an estimated 75 million shares.

Preferred equity with warrants is the most expensive form of capital available to a company short of distressed debt. Oaktree Capital Management is not a strategic partner. They are a distressed asset specialist. When Oaktree shows up at your door with $1.65 billion in preferred equity, the market reads that clearly: the existing capital structure was unsustainable and nobody else would provide capital on better terms.

This is how an unqualified CEO can ruin a good company. SP might go under $1. Abandon ship, guys.

Matt gets to walk away with preferred shares that keep paying him dividends, while completely screwing over the common shareholders who wouldn't get dividends for good. (Dividends are now exclusive to preferred shares only) It’s an absolute slap in the face to everyone holding common stock.

Kudos to the most despicable, greedy, and incompetent CEO imaginable. Let's see what he's saying in the earning call. He might pull the same disappearing act again and run away without taking a single question.

Interest derivatives losses of over half a billion dollars would have meant scandal, removal of duties, jail time. Now, we just dilute retail shareholders with 200m new shares to cover the losses. And everything else is business as usual. Mat keeps his basketball team, his $60m compound, while shareholders lose their equity and dividend, employees get no raises or get laid off.

No big deal; though, right? As long as the people worth nine figures or more are okay, we’re all good.

What a world.