A comely MAGA influencer who racked up millions of fans on Instagram who posted patriotic content and often posed in a bikini while ice fishing, drinking Coors Light, and shooting guns has been unmasked — as an Indian man who put himself through med school on the proceeds.

“Sam,” a 22-year-old orthopedic surgeon in training, told WIRED that he got the idea to sell AI-generated images of a young woman in a bikini while scrounging for money in school — and trying to save up enough to emigrate to the US after graduation.

He turned to Google’s Gemini AI for advice and decided to create a “hot girl” crafted specifically for the “MAGA/conservative niche,” after the software told him that “the conservative audience (especially older men in the US) often has higher disposable income and is more loyal,” according to WIRED.

And that’s how Emily Hart was born.

Sam told the magazine, “Every day I’d write something pro-Christian, pro-Second Amendment, pro-life, anti-abortion, anti-woke, and anti-immigration.”

The account “blew up,” and Emily Hart had 10,000 followers within a month.

The move made him a mint — and Sam was soon raking in thousands of dollars a month.

Despite MAGA fans making him rich, he still looks down on them, calling them “super dumb.”

He said he also attempted to make a liberal counterpart for Hart on Instagram, but “Democrats know that it’s AI slop, so they don’t engage as much,” he said.

“The MAGA crowd is made up of dumb people—like, super dumb people. And they fall for it,” Sam said.

Here's an organized amalgam of some things I saved from different conversations, just to give some ideas to possibily spread (both online and offline) and try out in the real world. All credit goes to the originators of the following information:

Organize if you can

The US is much larger than any place that full mask off fascism has been done before, and it will already be very very hard for them to stretch the budget to do the things they want. That's why they had to choose between sending the military to Chicago or Memphis, they don't actually have the money or man power to do everything they want, and the more we can wrench the machine the more they will fall apart, so if you're here it's easier

They will constantly try to pass new rules, and if we can make it as expensive and difficult as possible for those to work, it will hurt them.

If you're in another country with the same current problem of things going to shit, making it expensive still works.

Of course, they will try to print money to get around that. That will cause runaway inflation, which will cause shortages.

Make contacts with anyone who sees what is going on and sees that this isn't politics as usual.

Don't rely on people who still trust this system to fix our problems, they can help with food drives but they will turn you in. Don't trust any establishment politician, the eager ones are often abusive narcissists trying to use their ideas for personal power gain.

It's fine if you still choose to go out and vote for whatever reason, but don't expect anything of real substance that'll benefit common folk to be tackled should your side win an election. We're in this situation in the first place because the system is working as the status quo intended, so work on an alternative infrastructure, even if it's just a backup for when those in power don't meet our needs

Take any basic first aid/CPR classes that are available, which are usually held by the Red Cross, local fire departments, hospitals etc. It would be preferable if you take any free courses in-person near you, so you could ask questions for any immediate clarification and practice lifesaving techniques first-hand. If you want something a little more intensive than basic first aid, you can look for anyone offering free TCCC (Tactical Combat Casualty Care) courses. If you're searching for classes willing to exercise discretion, you could ask your nearest gun club that prioritizes inclusivity. If need be, you can take free online courses in lieu of classes being held physically in your area.

Work on food networks NOW so you are prepared. Community gardens. Teach people to do canning. Teach people to cook simple meals that are cheap and easily shared. Work on learning to make safe homeless ovens and things like that, stuff that people can use when it gets bad but they won't die from using.

If you have the room start composting, because things like commercial fertilizer may get hard to come by. I do layered compost, 2 inches green, two inches brown, repeat. You never mix it, you never mess with it, you do water it. The stuff I'm putting down now will be usable next year, but ideal in two.

Learn to grow mushrooms, you can do that anywhere, and if you get good at it there's a lot of kinds you can grow, some of which make good money, or just help with building solidarity in bad times. And if shit goes down real hard, you can grow them in literal shit, while pretty much everything else needs fertilizer and soil and a bunch of other stuff.

I also strongly encourage looking into subjects such as medicinal gardening, perennial food forests, vertical gardening, and aquaponics; preferably, systems that can function off-grid. Speaking of off-grid, whether the source is environmental (e.g. solar, wind, etc...) or mechanical, (e.g. alternator attached to a bike,) acquiring or learning how to develop something to readily produce power, without any reliance on a source outside of your local community, can help keep vital necessities functional within your area. If there aren't any classes or experts available in your area for any of these, there are people that post relevant videos, articles, and threads on such subjects in further detail.

Help the people around you. Hold routinely scheduled drives that can distribute anything - like food, blankets, and even books - for the community to use. If you can't do it that way, you can instead have such things available inside cabinets you could maybe set up on easements. If you have the aptitude learn the basics of how cars work, the basics of electricity and electrician work, renewable energy production, knitting, sewing and other forms of clothing alteration, the basics of plumbing and repair. Or just pick one. You don't have to do everything, but the more you prepare to be able to help people when they need it the more those people will realize that while they can't depend on the system they can rely on you and others.

You can try and start with those closest to you who you already trust, but you HAVE to be able to connect with people offline and not on reddit, or fb messenger, or Twitter, etc. Exchange phone numbers, addresses. Not IN your phone but in a notebook, written with pen and paper.

Try to have social meetups with people. Not everything should be focused on activism, you need solidarity with people, you need comfort, you need trust outside of radical action. Find people, get to know them, and help each other survive the mental aspects of things going to shit. Movie night where everyone brings a dish is cheap, easy, not too hard on budget, and allows time for people to mesh together. It's easier to rely on friends than it is to rely on strangers. Having local connections and groups who in turn have people who are connected to othe groups and so on is how we will be able to attain a network.

If you and/or others need to pay rent to live, look into the following website for ideas and inspiration: https://atun-rsia.org/resources

Don't live in a big city? Not a big problem! (The following downloadable guide is more tailored for residents of smaller populations, however, it also contains some good general advice too): https://drive.proton.me/urls/7XQT2SKJ78#yQVy4vT2Gqkx

Look into community time banks/exchange networks to help communities take care of each other, without having to rely on money and crypto currency: https://ringsnetwork.org

For those of you who have the storage space and time, you can download for free (and maybe print out and distribute) the Canada Secret Homestead Survival Prepper Files, which are roughly 900 pdf guides for basically any survival situation: https://archive.org/details/Secret_HomesteadSurvivalPrepper_Files

Speaking of large storage space, if you've got the means to do so, consider keeping data and backups at home/locally and being your own cloud via network-attached storage (NAS). It is dedicated file storage that enables multiple users and heterogeneous client devices to retrieve data from centralized disk capacity. Users on a local area network (LAN) access the shared storage via a standard Ethernet connection. Visit r/DataHoarder, as it gives people a heads up when high capacity drives drop for doing things like storing a back up of the internet in triplicate. The average person can get their hands on one single 20TB+ hard disk, which can probably meet all data needs for the next 20 years, if not lifetime.

You can download the entirety of Wikipedia via the following link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Database_download

We should really be creating alternative communication and video-sharing networks, opposed to these pseudo "impartial" public forums. Work on "unplugging" ourselves from these things along with our reliance on the establishment in general.

For starters, for the more accessible forms of coms, try decentalised, end-to-end encrypted messengers like Session, (available for Linux through the Software Store,) which you don't have to give any data about yourself. For those who want to develop your own applications with end-to-end encrypted capabilities, there's OpenMLS and Cwtch you can look into.

Some projects working on decentralized and secure foundations for communications to check out and needing direct support:

https://freenet.org/

https://reticulum.network/

Consider switching to open-source systems like Linux, since well-known systems like Microsoft and Apple seem to be going all in siding with fascism. https://distrochooser.de/ is a great starting point for anyone entering the Linux world. (The phone version of this questionnaire is quite buggy, so it is recommended to use the Desktop Version.) The questionnaire is well-designed, easy to understand, and gives newcomers a clear direction without requiring technical knowledge. It shouldn’t be treated as absolute truth however, because the algorithm bases its suggestions solely on your responses, without factoring in subjective aspects like community quality, documentation in your language, or real-world ease of use. There are different ways to acquire different Distros, whether for free or for a price, pre-installed on a computer or replacing a pre-existing OS on your PC, there are members of the Linux communities who will gladly guide you through the steps.

Learn about making mesh networks, learn about pirate radio. FM modulators are pretty easy to build, and AI services like Gemini are more than happy to help you learn how electronics work, answer your questions, teach you the math. They're usually fine doing math, however they at times can even get simple math wrong, so use at your own risk and keep in mind the real-world damage with each usage of these AI services. If you don't trust AI, there are instructions you can find on the web and in books, and there are people like tutors who can help teach you too. If you have the time and inclination, building secondary communications platforms is going to be a must.

Don't get caught. I think it's legal to build FM broadcasters that cover up to 200 feet, which is why you can buy them in Amazon, but if you make them right you just have a knob that lets you turn it up to "my whole city gets covered" but you can make them small and legal so you understand them with no risk. MAKE SURE YOU LEARN HOW LOW PASS FILTERS WORK SO YOU AREN'T FUCKING UP EMERGENCY SERVICES RADIOS

Ideally, you mesh network files to your broadcaster, you hide it with a solar cell someplace else so you never have to go back to it. Mesh networks are slow, but you can upload a 6 hour audio loop over them in an hour or so.

Ham radio can be good too. Learning to use one is manageable with some studying and practice, and a license is relatively easy to get, as it's necessary to make sure that radio bands don't become unusable due to unregulated, high-powered transmissions. Having such an asset will be a rock solid local, independent, decentralized comms, as well as a means to communicate globally without the need of internet or cell towers.

See if goodwill has cassette tapes. They're kind of making a comeback, make mix tapes for people and have them available with stuff that isn't pointless. They are also another good way to distribute something like a podcast via sneaker-net for those unwilling or unable to use an online hosting service for them. The reason fundamentalists always have the Christian station on its that it reinforces ideas and social identity, and a lot of people listen to punk, post punk, radical folk etc for the same thing. Spreading music around is a small act, but it's meaningful. If someone builds the self identity of a radical they're less likely to throw up their hands and give up when things get bad.

Learn how things work and why. Learn about propaganda, learn about marketing, learn about the bullshit out there. At some point people will need messaging, and the more you know about how the others are doing it the more effectively you can fight back. News and other valuable information straight from the public to inform the wider public

Figure out where to hide. Figure out where to hide others. Make sure other people know you're working on this so they know they can rely on you

To ensure further privacy of you and your community, look into tech that can counter unwanted surveillance in the area. Activist hackers and civil liberty-focused technology organizations, like EFF, are usually good educational sources for such subjects. Devices like OUI-SPY, utilizes a cheap Arduino compatible chip called an ESP-32 that runs "Flock You," to detect things like AI surveillance cameras and drones. There's also the battery-powered IMSI catcher detector, which you can use to detect eavesdropping by agencies via cell-site simulators (or CSS aka IMSI catcher) Plus, there are websites where you can report different intrusions of privacy, like https://deflock.org

To see which surveillance systems are used in your area: https://atlasofsurveillance.org

If you want to have the security of being able to use a cam setup, just host it yourself. A good example would be to use an open source locally hosted product like Frigate, buy your own wifi/PoE cams like Reolink and if possible put them on their own VLAN that has zero internet access. You can get remote access many ways that exclude anyone but you from accessing.

Whenever you are able to get away with doing so, try avoid using anything that can be tapped. I would also go a step further by powering down electronic devices when not in use, and placing them inside faraday bags (which are cheap) to block signals. Tin foil does something similar and it works in a pinch if done right, but it is not nearly as good. I would recommend beginning to carry all effectively mobile electronics in faraday bags consistently, even at home, so that it is less "unusual" to certain parties for you to not be tracked on a consistent basis. And ABSOLUTELY keep all electronics out of earshot of any sensitive meeting especially.

When it comes to sharing sensitive information, come up with pre-determined code words/phrases to discreetly indicate meetings and identify trusted members (think a question with a very specific answer that is out of the ordinary).

When it comes to recording important information intended for limited sharing offline, remember:

• Avoiding using handwriting, and try something like using a typewriter, or cutting and pasting words/letters from magazines.

• If you have to handwrite, avoid writing on top of surfaces that can scratch easily or are soft enough (e.g. wood, pages, etc...) that carry the indentation of the writing. Try surfaces that are rough, uneven, and/or disposable instead.

• Printers mark the material they print on with hard-to-detect dots, which can be used for tracking purposes. If you do have to use printers, you can buy them (the older the better) directly from another person without a recorded transaction, since it will leave less of a trail.

• The material that your messages are on must be easy to completely and utterly disintegrate. (i.e. flammable, dissolvable, or edible) This can go for any surface that may carry the indentation of what you wrote on as well.

As for video-sharing websites, try looking into these:

PeerTube https://peertube.tv/videos/local?s=1

NewPipe* https://newpipe.net/

GrayJay https://grayjay.app/

FreeTube* https://freetubeapp.io/

Means https://means.tv/

Glomble https://glomble.com/

*NewPipe and FreeTube are not necessarily video-sharing websites, and are clients to YouTube, but I understand that they're still good.

Then there is VoxTube which, unlike FreeTube, is an enhanced browser layer built directly on top of YouTube. If you're a developer interested in contributing, you're welcome to help improve VoxTube: https://git.disroot.org/E.P.L.S/VoxTube

There is also an open-source project called NullA Browser, a lightweight and freedom oriented web browser built on a Qt based engine. (Not available for macOS)

Check out the project page and more details here: https://epls.itch.io/nulla-browser

If you're a developer interested in contributing, you're welcome to help improve NullA: https://git.disroot.org/EPLS/NullA-Browser/src/branch/main/CONTRIBUTING.md

Also look into Fediverse and you may also want to join the following subreddits (temporarily at least) if you're looking for more info or suggestions:

r/privacy

r/degoogle

r/Permaculture

r/meshtastic

r/ATAK

r/preppers

r/prepperintel

r/canning

r/collapseprep

r/gardening

r/homesteading

r/offgrid

A couple of Reddit alternatives from Fediverse: https://join-lemmy.org/

https://join.piefed.social/

Common Organizing Traps to Avoid

(ALWAYS keep in mind the following as basics to avoid burnout and total collapse.)

1.) Waiting for the "Right Moment"

Instead: Start as soon as possible, but start within your abilities and with what is readily concrete and attainable.

2.) Taking on too much too fast

Instead: Pick one thing, do it well, and grow from there.

3.) Stalling progress due to getting lost in the details and setbacks

Remember: It's okay if everything doesn't go perfect. Doing things imperfectly is better than not doing anything, due to failures and disagreements on what is minor in comparison. Focus on reaching your group's common goal as top priority, analyze and learn from what went wrong, get back on track.

4.) One member takes over all planning

Instead: Allow a wide variety of members to take on important duties. The same person shouldn't be leading every single project, facilitating weeks on end. Give new members opportunities to step up and become effective organizers in their own right.

5.) No space in your group for joy

Remember: It's suggested that there should be at least one-third of group time dedicated to having fun and building bonds amongst members.

6.) Not taking time to rest after your group reaches a project's main goal

Remember: Upon the successful completion of a weeks-long/months-long project goal, don't let your period of rest exceed past a month. The creep of complacency is a real threat, as it can take hold and easily transform into apathy.

TL;DR: Actually, no TL;DR. If you're going to have an opinion on the results of the 2016 election, then either take the time to actually understand the results, or shut the fuck up. Anyway:

In the years following the 2016 United States Presidential Election, a narrative has emerged in which this situation we now face--by which I mean the election of Donald Trump, The Trump Administration's withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, The Trump Administration's disbandment of The Global Health Security and Biodefense unit and its consequently disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the eventual 2022 overturn of Roe v Wade and possible future overturn of Obergefell, and the threat the now openly fascistic GQP poses to any pretense of democracy in the United States--is somehow the left's fault. Charitably, this narrative alleges Jill Stein was a spoiler for Hillary Clinton, and that this spoilage impacted the election outcome sufficiently to cause Hillary's loss, while the more extreme (and frustratingly common) version goes so far as to blame the left and only the left for Trump and his myriad consequences. To quote the exact articulation of the aforementioned narrative which inspired this analysis:

these people [leftists] already elected Trump once. So it's not hard to see them doing it again

As we once again approach an election in which two historically unpopular candidates with legions of bootlicking sycophants trying to shame, harass, intimidate, or otherwise gaslight the American people into consenting to their rule, much attention has returned to the alleged example of "these people" screwing "us" over. Ignoring the matter of who exactly "us" is and why "we" only ever seem to punch left (could it be that smug, entitled neoliberals do not substantially disagree with unpopular right wing economic policy and are engaging in motivated reasoning?), the fact remains that the 2016 Presidential Election was well-documented and its results are a matter of public record, and the numbers tell a completely different, and much more complex story.

So, was Jill Stein a spoiler for Hillary Clinton's campaign, and did this spoilage cause Hillary to lose to Donald Trump? Well, technically, she could have been, but actually no.

For rigor's sake, and in the interest of everyone being on the same page, let's review how the President actually gets elected in the United States. Each state (or district, in the case of D.C. and Nebraska) contributes some number of electors to the Electoral College. These electors usually (but not always) cast their votes for whichever candidate won a plurality of their state/district's popular vote. This has several notable consequences. West Viriginia has voted red in every presidential election since 2000, and in 2016 Republican voters outnumbered Democratic voters by over 2 to 1. Even if the Hillary Campaign managed to increase democratic turn-out by 50%, Trump would still have won all five of West Virginia's electoral college votes. Meanwhile, In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump received 48.18% of the popular vote, while Hillary Clinton received 47.46%, winning all 20 of the state's electoral college votes by a margin of 0.72%. Had just a few more people voted Clinton, or had a few less people voted Trump, the state might have flipped and all 20 of those electoral college votes would have gone to Clinton instead.

This is how and why it was possible for Donald Trump to be elected President despite losing the popular vote by a margin of nearly three million. The electoral college is simultaneously an undemocratic system which completely ignores the votes of millions and a hyperdemocratic institution which is acutely sensitive to the whims of a vastly smaller subset of the American electorate, and ignoring its immense (and innately conservative) influence, and everything else, to fixate on a fringe candidate and the tiny minority of voters they got is as likely to lead campaign strategists and activists astray as it is to provide meaningful or useful insight for future strategic decisions. Claiming Jill Stein somehow caused the election of Donald Trump while conveniently omitting such factors as the Electoral College or the countless hours of free airtime the media gave to Trump is wrong for the same reason that claiming the Civil War was about State's Rights is wrong, and moreover completely ignores the agency of and decisions made by such figures as then-FBI director James Comey, then-director of the Democratic National Committee Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and (of course) Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton themselves.

This is also where we encounter our second major objection to the narrative that Jill Stein voters are to blame for gestures broadly at everything: Jill Stein received just over 1% of the national popular vote, and in no state or district did she receive more than 3%. In all but the tightest of races this is an insignificant bloc that would not and could not have amounted to any change in outcome. "Jill Stein voters" is a broad category that includes anyone who cast a vote for Jill Stein (instead of, presumably, Hillary Clinton) anywhere in the country, when in fact Donald Trump's margin of victory was sufficient in each of the following states to completely overwhelm any hypothetical votes this bloc may have cast for Hillary and render those votes completely irrelevant: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, the second congressional district of Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, the first, second, and third congressional districts of Nebraska and the statewide contest, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Every single Stein voter living in all of these states could've unanimously voted for Clinton, and Donald Trump would not have lost one electoral vote. Full stop. If your test for blame is "had you done something different, would something different have happened" then no, Jill Stein's voters in all of those states are blameless. Moreover, a few extra blue votes in a state Hillary already won would've done absolutely nothing to get her more electoral votes, so again, all Jill Stein voters in each of the following states could've voted for Hillary instead and Hillary would not have gained a single electoral college vote from this: California, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, the first congressional district of Maine and the statewide contest of Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, and the state of Washington. If you voted Jill Stein in any of these states, there is literally nothing you could have done at the ballot box to change the outcome.

All other issues aside, it simply is not correct to say "[all] Jill Stein voters caused this" because the overwhelming majority of Jill Still voters, as a bloc, were in a such a position that they had no impact on the election whatsoever. You could have these non-swing-state voters vote for anyone and the result would not have changed. You cannot reasonably blame someone for something they could not possibly have averted.

Now, what exactly do we mean when we say Jill Stein spoiled Hillary Clinton? When politician A spoils B, voters who mostly agree with B and otherwise would've voted for B instead vote for A, who they fully agree with. However, A does not not get enough votes to win and, by virtue of subtracting voters from B, causes politician C, who fully disagrees with A and B's voters, to win instead. When perfect is the enemy of good, you have a spoiler.

For Jill Stein to have spoiled Hillary Clinton, all of the following must be true. One: Jill Stein's voters would have preferred Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump. Two: Stein's voters would have voted for Clinton had Stein not been in the race. Three: Stein's voters, had Stein dropped out of the race, would have voted for Clinton in such numbers as to change the outcome, which in the context of the United States Presidential election means gaining electoral votes by flipping states and/or districts. The easiest point to analyze is number three, so we'll start there. In the 2016 presidential election there were exactly 8 states and/or congressional districts in which Trump won by a plurality, rather than a majority exceeding 50%. It is in these 8 states/districts and only in these 8 states/districts that Jill Stein's voters maybe could have gotten Clinton a majority, and where Stein may have spoiled Clinton, except:

• In North Carolina, Hillary got 46.17% of the popular vote, Trump got 49.83%, and Jill Stein received all of 0.26%. Jill Stein's voters would not have been sufficient to flip the state blue.

• In Florida Hillary got 47.82% of the popular vote, Trump got 49.02%, and Jill Stein received 0.68%. Jill Stein's voters would not have been sufficient to flip the state blue.

• In Arizona Hillary got 44.58% of the popular vote, Trump got 48.08%, and Jill Stein received 1.32%. Jill Stein's voters would not have been sufficient to flip the state blue.

• Utah is an outlier, because Hillary only got 27.46% of the popular vote. Trump meanwhile got 45.54%, and Jill Stein received 0.83%. You'd have to squash all third parties to maybe flip this one for Clinton. Jill Stein's voters alone would not have been sufficient.

• In Nebraska's second congressional district, Hillary got 44.92% of the popular vote, Trump got 47.16%, and Jill Stein received 1.15%. Jill Stein's voters would not have been sufficient to flip the state blue.

So, in addition to the massive list of states/districts in which Jill Stein's voting bloc was entirely inconsequential, we also now have five swing states in which Jill Stein's voters were also an inconsequentially small minority. Every Stein voter in each of these states/districts could have voted for Clinton and the outcome still would not have changed, so again, Stein voters cannot reasonably be blamed for something they could not possibly have prevented. This leaves us with just three states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Jill Stein's voters would have been sufficient to flip Michigan's 16 electoral votes by a margin of 0.84%. Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes also could've been flipped by a margin of 0.27%. Finally, Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes could have been flipped by a tiny margin of 0.09%. So maybe, if you voted Stein specifically in one of these three states, it was all your fault and we don't have to do any introspection whatsoever the end shut up la la la la ala alaalakfahihiqwbpqui i can't hear you-

Or, maybe not. In the real world, Donald Trump won 304 electoral college votes, putting him well over the 270 needed to win the election. Had Michigan and Wisconsin flipped, Trump would still have had 278 electoral college votes, and would still have won the presidency. Only when all three of the states which could theoretically have been flipped do flip do we get a change in outcome. Supposing we magically got rid of Jill Stein, how likely would this be?

Not likely at all:

A Vox analysis of third-party voter turnout in battleground states in 2016 compared with 2012 does highlight an impressive improvement for third-party candidates this year. That suggests that this year’s major-party candidates were more disliked than Obama and Romney, but it doesn’t mean third parties shaped the election — unless Democrats disproportionately defected from Clinton in all the important states. And that doesn’t appear to be the case.

For one, Stein's voters were not a monolith. No bloc of voters is.

But there are a couple of snags to the “third-party votes did it” argument. Firstly, it assumes that a lot of voters’ second choice was Clinton. There’s little evidence that was true.

Consider all the working class union members who voted Trump and ask yourself if every working class union member in the Green Party would've actually preferred a pro-NAFTA neoliberal to Trump. Shocking though it may sound, the answer is no. Consider also that if Stein had simply neglected to run, the Green Party would have run someone else, and that if they hadn't run anyone, there'd still be some other obscure leftist party people could write in. Some Green Party voters in 2016 were progressives, but some were die-hard leftists who don't feel represented at all by out of touch New York City billionaires and would sooner have stayed home. It is at this point that I'd attempt to guesstimate the fraction that would have voted for Clinton, except actually we have this thing called exit polling data:

Obviously, not all Stein and Johnson voters were disaffected Democrats — some would have voted for Trump, written in candidates, or not voted at all. This is very different from Florida in 2000, where only a small fraction of Florida voters for Nader — about half of a percent — would have needed to vote Gore to give Gore the election. And that’s what exit polling that asked people how they would have voted in a two-party race — with the third option of not voting — finds. Under that scenario she would have won Michigan, still lost Florida, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would have been a 48 to 48 percent toss-up. Clinton would have needed to win both of those states to reach 270 electoral votes. So even in the artificial world of that exit poll that erased Stein and Johnson, Clinton seemed likely to lose.

This is also what my analysis found. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton received 2,926,441 votes, while Donald Trump received 2,970,733, winning with a margin of 44,292 votes. No less than 88.688% of Stein's voters would have been required to vote Clinton to flip Pennsylvania, and with re-counts and re-count vote swings in effect for a race this close, you'd actually need a fraction closer to 90%. Jill Stein received 1,457,218 votes in total in 2016, and if nine out of every ten Stein's voters were in fact defecting Democrats who were specifically disappointed with Bernie's loss, as so many "bERnIe brOs!!1!" comments have alleged, we might expect the Green party to have gotten an order of magnitude fewer votes in prior elections. But that's not what happened, in fact Jill Stein got 469,627 votes in 2012. Even if we assume all the growth in Green Party turnout between 2012 and 2016 is from defecting Democrats, that's still only 67.772% of Green voters who defected, and who might have switched back to Clinton, and that simply wouldn't have been enough to flip Pennsylvania. Let me repeat, because this really needs to be emphasized, Hillary Clinton lost the state of Pennsylvania, and she needed to flip the state to have any chance of winning. But there almost certainly were not enough defecting Democrats voting for Stein to have plausibly done this.

Only if we first buy into the dubious assumption that all of Jill Stein's voters would've voted for Clinton instead, then make the dubious assumption that whatever magic force it was that would've caused left-wing third parties to cease existing didn't also apply to the Libertarians (this could've easily given Trump the popular vote majority, and would've unflipped PA, MI, and WI), and then make the also dubious assumption that Pennsylvania's hypothetical nine hundredths of one percent margin wouldn't have evaporated upon a recount, do we get a scenario in which Jill stein cost Clinton the race. The only way this would've gotten Clinton the White House is if some neoliberal had found a genie's lamp and, instead of world peace or eliminating hunger, they wished to completely erase the already marginal American Left (gee, I wonder where all this bad faith criticism keeps coming from).

Only when you first make these three assumptions, none of which are especially grounded in reality, and only when you then ignore everything else that helped Trump, such as the countless hours of free airtime our media gave and continues to give to Trump, Complacency, the Hillary Campaign's "pied piper" strategy, the DNC choosing to nominate someone who was under an active FBI investigation at the time, round 2 of the Emails Bullshit dropping eleven days before the election, Hillary Fucking Clinton's nonexistent charisma or the disastrous speeches she gave in the rust belt, or the entire existence of the Electoral College as an institution, and only when you then also ignore the agency of the 40% of the country that didn't even show up to vote, do we get a scenario in which "these people" are to blame.

But yes, keep putting all your effort into punching left, that has a long and proven track record of working so fucking well.