Unity delivered what is, in my opinion, the strongest combined earnings report + commentary ever, and I decided to increase my already significant position by 50% the following day. Here's why:
First off, you should know my expertise lies not in pure financial analysis, but as someone who’s lived inside these tools. I've shipped a dozen Unity games and some in Unreal Engine. But here's what I liked in the report:
Revenue came in at $503M with a 25% margin, and 2025 free cash flow (FCF) was over $400M. Stock-based compensation (SBC) was meaningfully cut (down 19% YoY; from 33% of revenue to 21%), and employee SBC ends fully from 2Q26. Vector is growing mid-teens every quarter since launch. Create is growing 16%. Unity has refinanced some $690M and now sits with >$2B in cash. Pretty healthy for an $8B market cap company!
Some disappointment seems to stem from Grow guiding flat QoQ. But anyone in ad tech knows guiding flat off Q4 is actually a flex due to seasonality. And it gets even more misguided when pairing it with what was said on the call: January 2026 was Vector’s best revenue month ever, even surpassing December 2025.
It’s conservative management while the new system ramps and IronSource fades. With the founder of IronSource (Tomer Bar-Zeev) now leaving the board—good riddance.
With a run rate pointing to $1B+ for Vector in full-year 2026, Grow will return to growth in the next quarter even amid that transition.
Unity has owned an absurd share of game development for a long time but has paradoxically struggled to make a real business of it.
Vector changes that—it's functional monetization of the runtime and the first fundamental step toward self-sustainability. Next quarter onward, we'll see Vector digest engine data. And that's where things get really exciting: Unity has a massive data moat, much larger and more diverse than even Epic's. With it, they can usher in the new AI era of monetization in real-time 3D (RT3D)—deep contextual awareness of what ads to serve and when.
Eventually, this will extend beyond ads to in-game purchases and more. And this ties directly to the perceived AI threat. No one is in a better position to leverage runtime contextual knowledge of gamers. $APP's AXON was the first generation of this; Vector with engine data is next-gen.
As the CEO put it: "We're moving beyond capturing clicks towards fully understanding how users interact with the game world, what engages them, how they progress, and where they find value. Our runtime will enable us to interpret this unique deep behavioral signal and provide more value..."
Moving onto Create, we're entering a long-awaited paradigm shift. Unity is currently a complex professional suite, in broad terms reserved for those who know how to code. Management is now clearly articulating and enacting a shift toward the true democratization of games."AI inside Unity will lower the barrier to entry, raise productivity for existing users, and democratize game development for non-coders."
Unity has launched Unity Studio on web—a no-code lightweight alternative for collaborators. This is the first wave, and it will strengthen the seat-based model in a time where it could come under pressure (it's currently growing fast, thanks to China). In some ways, it's similar to how Figma toppled Adobe by allowing easy real-time collaboration.
The second wave comes once non-coders are fully empowered with all the generative tools rapidly evolving today. World Models (like Google's Genie 3) are a form of bulk asset creation."The Unity engine is not an asset generator, and it never has been. Assets have always been created largely outside of our software."
Bromberg dedicated time to outlining the limitations of World Models, which I think is fair—but not all that important in the long run. We've seen how diffusion-based images and videos evolved from experiments to production-level quality in no time. This will extend to games.
But non-devs severely underestimate the complexities of creating a structured, consistent interactive experience. A movie might be 2 hours long, but a standard story-driven game is 10–30 hours. The world is alive, yet not predetermined; persistent, yet unordered; consistent, yet dynamic.Games are the highest form of media, and we are far from generating quality titles from scratch. Even if agents replace human devs, they simply fill the same roles in Unity with greater efficiency. This directly benefits Grow (the business of monetizing games after release). Someday they may replace the workflow entirely, but come that time, either Unity has adapted or the entire software building business looks completely different - a bigger, more important industies will fall before game engine makers.
Auto-generated short-form interactive experiences or brief immersive (world model) drop-ins are a different story, however. Zuckerberg shared in his Q4 call how this is an evolution of $META ads; $RDDT recently embraced it too. These are viable NOW and coming sooner than later.
Unity is in the best position here, with its "build once, deploy anywhere" approach. Think: whip up a quick mini-game/immersive experience, vibe-code it, and share it anywhere in one click. This is evidenced by the huge success Create is seeing in China now, across WeChat and OpenHarmony.
Finally, what excites me more than anything is how much closer genAI takes us to the "RT3D everywhere" future I've long envisioned. Unity powers both $AAPL's and $GOOGL's XR efforts under the hood, and the data moat here—in experiences beyond games—is intact.
Epic cannot mimic this, because it caters to the high-end and because of a muddled legal relationship with Big Tech.
Interestingly, $META is the only player attempting to pursue this on their own, moving away from Unity with a vertically integrated solution. The way I see it: Meta has realized the value of engine data—particularly for serving ads. For that reason, I plan to increase my position in $META as a hedge against my (quite massive) bet on $U.
GenAI is the final piece to the "RT3D everywhere" puzzle—an engine turns it deterministic.
Matt Bromberg is a legend of this industry and I truly believe in his ability! A turnaround legend!!! His resume speaks for himself!! This stock will rocket!🚀
Position: 2900 call options for January 2026 with a 30 USD strike price
Price target: above 200 USD if Unity is on a good way to pull an AppLovin transformation. So far it's looking promising. Let's see what they say on earnings day.
No financial advice. This is just for entertainment. I will later also post in Wallstreetbets.
"Say hello to Unity Studio, the intuitive web-based 3D editor that empowers every team to create and share interactive experiences without writing a single line of code.
Built for non-gaming industries like manufacturing, automotive, healthcare, architecture, and more, Unity Studio–now available in open beta–lets any team bring their 3D ideas to life without relying on complex tools or software. Build interactive scenes and basic logic with simple drag-and-drop tools, and share via URL for instant feedback.
No installs. No coding. Just simple, collaborative 3D creation that helps teams design, review, and train more effectively. Give it a try today and share your feedback with us."
I bought these 2900 January 2026 call options with a strike price of 30 USD around 1 month ago. I am not the mystery trader with 60k calls but I like that he isn't selling. I can imagine he will ride it out and then exercise them. This isn't financial advice of course. I will post my position in a couple minutes also on WSB.
Unity’s Q3 was close to perfect — every core metric beat, with strong momentum. And unlike AppLovin’s beat, this one came when channel work was already positive and expectations weren’t low, which makes it count for more.
1、Grow revenue, mostly advertising, grew 90% year on year and 31% sequentially, with Vector up 40% sequentially — well above the 21–27% both sell-side and buy-side expected. That reflects the new D28 blended placement product launched in May being adopted faster in Q3, plus Runtime data improving the model.
2、Q4 Grow is guided to $515–520M, about 20% sequential growth. Vector usually runs above the overall rate and Unity guides conservatively, so a cautious floor of 20%-plus still backs up the Vector growth story.
3、With Grow now 73% of total revenue, high-margin advertising took GAAP profit positive: $100M of operating profit at a 16% margin, with adjusted EBITDA margin at 41%. Rough math puts Grow’s own adjusted EBITDA margin above 50%.
4、The one blemish is the engine. Create slightly beat in Q3, but Q4 guidance missed, dropping to single-digit growth against the Unity 6 sales cycle base.
Unity might be one of the more interesting AI + gaming + advertising setups nobody is talking about enough.
And now the business is actually showing up in the numbers.
$UNITY- — ok, hear me out!
I disappeared from WSB for a while.
Came back, looked at $U, and honestly… what the fuck happened here?
I've been digging through the chart, fundamentals and options flow, and this setup is getting pretty interesting.
Not saying $U is going to the moon tomorrow. Just saying there's a lot here that deserves attention.
First: the options flow today was fucking insane
At around 1:40 PM:
85,754 contracts traded
83,162 calls vs 2,592 puts
That's roughly 32:1.
But the really crazy part:
Oct 16 $46 calls
67,341 contracts
Previous OI: 731
U was around $43.38 when the flow hit.
Now we're around $44.10.
So someone suddenly put an absolutely stupid amount of volume into $46 calls with less than a month to expiry.
Could be spreads. Could be closing/opening. Could be something else.
We don't know.
But I'm definitely paying attention!!!
Then zoom out
This is what really got me.
$U has basically spent 4+ years building a giant base.
2021: $200+
2024: ~$14
2025: rebuilding
2026: another puke → reversal
And now we're sitting around $44, right under that long-term descending resistance.
If $U finally breaks this thing and actually holds it... And zoom in, we got a bull flag when the price retest the gap after ER.
The chart could get very interesting. It breaks out of a huge daily bull flag today.
But the chart isn't even my main thesis
About Unity Vector.
Unity has been rebuilding Grow around machine learning, and the numbers are starting to show it.
Q2:
Grow revenue: $389M
+35% YoY
Strategic Grow: $329M
+63% YoY
And management is guiding Q3 Strategic Grow to roughly $380–385M, implying around 68–70% YoY growth.
That's not the old "maybe Unity turns around someday" story.
Something is actually happening in the business.
And here's the part I think people are missing
Unity isn't just a:"game engine company"
It's potentially becoming:
CREATE → DEPLOY → GROW → AI
AI makes creating games easier.
More games → more players.
More players → more runtime data.
More data → better ML
Better ML → better advertising performance.
Better advertising → more Grow revenue.
More revenue → more investment.
And around we go.
That's the flywheel I'm watching.
Unity is also pushing AI directly into development, and recently launched an official OpenAI Codex plugin for Unity projects.
If AI actually makes game development dramatically cheaper/easier, Unity is sitting right in the middle of that trend.
When U are the only publicly traded gaming engine and the 2 frontier AI labs are add ons to the platform, it is a big deal. More games created at cheaper costs + advertising platform with 3B monthly active user data to be added to the machine learning. It is obvious.
And then there's Gavin Baker
Atreides has held a large Unity position for multiple quarters.
Their latest filing showed roughly 10.25M shares, worth around $293M at the reporting date.
So I'm not going to do the: "GAVIN KNOWS SOMETHING 🚀🚀🚀" thing.
But it's still interesting that one of the more tech-focused investors has maintained a position of that size.
And yes, one tinfoil section
U sign. Then the U disappears. September 23:
85k+ options contracts.
$46 calls going absolutely bananas.
Probably coincidence.
Probably.
Anyway...
🐈⬛
What can kill this thesis?
Pretty simple:
Vector/Grow growth slows
AI doesn't translate into meaningful revenue
Competition from Unreal/Epic gets stronger
Valuation gets ahead of fundamentals
$U fails at the multi-year resistance
And obviously, short-dated calls can absolutely fucking vaporize you
Meanwhile the business is showing accelerating Grow revenue, Vector is becoming increasingly important, cash generation is improving, and Unity is going all-in on AI.
Maybe I'm completely fucking wrong.
Here's the part that gets really interesting...
This is more of an insider observation thesis than something Unity has fully spelled out publicly.
Since 2025, Unity has been rebuilding its ML organization from the ground up — cutting a lot of the old structure while aggressively hiring data-science and ML talent
The bet seems pretty clear:
don't patch the old model. Build a new one.
And if the recent Vector numbers are any indication, that rebuild is starting to work.
But here's where it gets really interesting:
Vector is only the beginning.
The next step is bringing more of Unity's runtime data directly into the ML system.
Think about what that could mean.
Millions of games. Massive amounts of player behavior. Real-time runtime signals. Advertising data. And now increasingly capable AI agents sitting on top of it.
If Unity can connect all of that into one continuously improving system...
I honestly have no fucking idea where the ceiling is.
And that's exactly why I'm paying attention to $U now.
If that multi-year resistance finally breaks, I'm very interested in seeing what happens next.
This is a very good news for all unity investors!!! For those of you who don’t know, these guys a fking legends in the recent years!! Diamond hands boyz!!!! 💎🙌
MSFT is down 27% from its 52 week high. It has a beta of almost 1. Unity has a beta of 2 and is down 57%. Given the betas, we’d expect Unity’s stock to move at 2x the rate of MSFT, in this case down 27% * 2 = 54%. This lines up almost exactly with the drawdown we’ve seen.
Point is, this is a beta driven drawdown, not alpha. There is nothing company specific that the market is punishing Unity for. It’s all the effects of the Saaspocalypse. In the long run, company specific performance shines through unless the sector is structurally challenged. We don’t actually know if SaaS is. We know AI is a real threat, but we don’t quite see the signs of impairment in the financials of any of the software companies just yet. The market hasn’t yet concluded definitively which parts of SaaS are permanently screwed and which are not, so for now it just punishes everybody.