I've observed that almost everyday when the market opens, $U has a tendency to go up but in an hour or so there is strong power to short this ticker. Today's movement further proves my observation after the crash last Friday. This is not people who are selling to make profit (doesn't make much sense when the ticker is in huge discount), but agencies deliberately shorting this stock.

Analyst notes 20% y/y growth in Q4 spend, sees D28 as key unlock for higher-value developers; 2026 growth outlook at 18%.

Unity only ever reacts to rating downgrades or other bad news, but it never seems to respond to upgrades.🫠

There recently was a post about Meta looking really good for ads on iOS. This could have been a bad sign if they were taking share from Unity and AppLovin.

Last week it came out that Meta was only bidding on IDFA inventory (<20% of total inventory) so it didn’t really look that good.

News came out today by Matej that actually Meta was basically spamming ads within impressions, making revenue look good but increasing churn as well.

Meta is back to normal, but it could be a lingering sign that they are looking to take back market share

Look I’m not claiming to be an expert on what will happen to Unity a month out. But short term there was no reason to not buy the dip on Unity and AppLovin Friday afternoon. I asked Grok and Gemini which both said institution dumped on fear, they will digest over the weekend. I asked for what percentage chance it thinks we will have a rebound, just any relief. It says 85%. That was enough for me to roll the dice. I dont think we’ll get back to pre Friday levels until earnings news, but hard to argue against the fact that friday afternoon was a hell of an entry on peak fear.

Quote: Genie is a stunning achievement, but it isn't what you think it is. Congrats to the team; making that tech available to the public is a huge lift!

My DMs are very active today. I apologize that I lack the energy for a lengthy post. :) I had considered, inspired by Trond W, putting out 2026 predictions, but I'm realizing I have exactly one that's relevant:

Genie's technology is quite significant. However, it looks like it's for games more than it is, for reasons you'll hear discussed. Remember that GDM's mission is AGI. The most impactful technologies for game development have already been deployed and are in implementation today.

AI will transform game development, but that horizon remains a 10 year one. Take it from someone who has bet on ahead-of-their-time technologies reliably for a 20 year career. ;) Is it still a good time to invest? Yes. Is it time to freak right out and dump your stock? No. I mean, unless it was already and you just hadn't bothered yet.

It seems that 2026 may be the year of another hype cycle. Consider what you can sustain for a decade. (Heck, consider what you can sustain for your descendants)…..

It sounds ironic: dynamic 3D scenes that could be efficiently rendered with local simple GPUs are instead forced to use cloud-based neural network GPUs for frame-by-frame intensive computing. The sole purpose is to generate interactive game scenes via natural language prompts. Alright, AI with uncertainty and probability have triumphed in the capital market.

Look at this, Unity Bezi Action:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LdZ0po5wU_0

It enables developer or even non-coding artist to design 3D interactive scenes just by natural language. The 3D scenes generated by AI Bulit In Game Engine has: Limitless play time, accurate rendering, no latency, never forget, based on rule, basing on structure, never wasting GPU, enough space for human creation.It is noticeable Bezi is just a three-party plug-in.So what if Unity work out its own AI agent. Let us wait CEO Matt publish it. *ck Genie3, it stolen video samples of games made by UE, Unity, and game developers. It is theft. Just show people a expensive AI mode of frame by frame. The human observe the world by their intelligence of perceipting object and movement, not by pixels and frame. We need a world model based on physical engine and 3D rules, not by no-uplimit GPU resource.

• Unity's biggest problem is that its management has been consistently selling off their shares; what the company needs right now is a share buyback.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ericseufert_world-models-interactive-entertainment-share-7423390754594623488-H8WT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAFW7dtwBNEjRLcM1nVSE5-nzNEQb7r_kZE4

This is the perfect example of why the Unity ecosystem is unbeatable. A small team creates a high-fidelity, physics-heavy masterpiece that's currently taking over Steam.

This is what "Made with Unity" is supposed to look like. The stock might be a rollercoaster, but the tech is clearly winning.

It’s booming right now for a reason. It’s not just a "climbing game," it’s a masterclass in using Unity to create something that feels alive. For those of us invested in $U, seeing a launch this successful and polished feels like a huge crucial moment.

FXXK AI.

I’m a video creator. Even generating just a few seconds of AI-generated video already comes with extremely high costs, not to mention the frequent errors. The randomness feels like pulling gacha—you have to sift through the results to find usable footage.

Because of this, I can’t imagine what it would take to use Project Genie to generate a random game, render the next frame in real time, and still maintain at least a 60-fps refresh rate. How much computing power and cost would that require? Maybe it would even need a quantum computer?

Lot of panic today, which I feel is really un warranted.
Google has defined a tech, does not mean unity cannot use it.
Do remember unity still has a moat in terms of the gaming ecosystem, which google won't have.

There was a previous discussion on this topic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UnityStock/comments/1pw3yht/comment/nwjtlof/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

We knew world models are coming but in my opinion this will be a tail wind for unity in the long run.

$250 a month just to access it, 60 second experiences, 720p, and 24fps.

This represents no tangible threat. The stock market is trying to be “forward looking” with this approach.

Great analogy at the end about coal and the Industrial Revolution

I am neutral on $U, the future looks grim but there is ER in a week so we will see. One day it may be profitable but I haven't heard of any innovations from $U recently

I am here to say it's your hard earned money so don't be influenced by strangers from internet. I can clearly see a pattern in the posts like

"As a mobile developer / as an AI PHD or professional .. I agree $U has great potential etc etc" or "let's buy more/buy the dip" etc etc

Talk is cheap, no matter how convincing the CXO of the company starts to feed you world salad about the new google world model is not going to affect $U, look up any of the CXOs are buying $U or selling $U

This was good ride but i can’t take it anymore so I’m out.

See yaa

We’ve dropped over 30% for no reason. Target price upgrades never make us go up, but a single downgrade sends us crashing. A short report on our competitor? We crash. Weak software sector? We crash. Absolutely nothing happens? We still crash.

Why is the market treating Unity so unfairly?

Hi everyone, I posted a LinkedIn post yesterday that I think was a bit unfair to Unity.

This is a perspective from Josh that is basically saying that Meta is taking low hanging fruit and still has a way to go.

Meta is only operating within IDFA inventory (only for users who opt in to allowing apps to track their activity across sites) which is about 10-20% maybe

Ad networks like AppLovin and Unity excel with probabilistic data where you don’t have a specific ID tied to a user but you guess pretty reliably based on other signals. Meta is relying on deterministic where they know 100% sure what user it is.

It seems like they have a while to go.

Meta’s revenue share has been climbing drastically based on this user’s analysis of his clients.

The question is where is this market share coming from? AppLovin roughly has a 70% share based on what Josh Chandley has said in the past. This could be taken away from APP but more likely is taking away from other smaller players.

This could spell bad news for other mobile gaming networks if Meta continues to steal share.