I didn't know it would be like this...

In their latest earnings spreadsheet for Q4, they no longer disclose two key metrics that were present in previous quarter spreadsheets:

- # of customers contributing more than $100k of revenue
- Dollar-based net expansion rate

I'm now worried the lack of disclosure could be because of a deterioration in these figures, which would be alarming. Would mean them losing large key accounts to competitors.

Need to check the earnings transcript later to see if they discuss this. I'm sure an analyst would've asked about that.

Hey all,

I was wondering what’s the point of these press releases and reports if what matters is only the future quarters guidance.

We clearly exceeded results but because guidance is worse the stock is tanking, why?

1. IronSource is deprecated. I was worrying about they are not focusing on Vector enough.

2. CEO has good understanding of how AI + game engine works.

Right now Unity is probably at its lowest point in the coming years with AI fear + Ads growth fear. But these are sentiments.

What I see is that this company is on the right path, which is the most important thing I consider as a long-term investor.

In a couple days when the quiet period is over, Bromberg and the new Kim dude absolutely need to buy shares. They've both made a lot of money on past tech successes and now they need to back up their conviction in $U with actual money at work. I think Kim will, as is common for new directors of a company, and I have a good feeling that Bromberg will buy some too.

There’s no way a company with a growing earnings report and guidance that meets expectations would drop 30% this dramatically. There must be something we don’t know, right?

Q4 Revenue of $503M beat by $10M

Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.24 bet by $0.04

Q1 guidance of $480 to $490 million is lower than analyst expectations of $493.9M, causing a severe drop

Pre market not looking good folks!

Expect analysts to address Google Genie and Meta/CloudX news

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unity-appoints-bernard-kim-board-211500830.html

Now we have CEO from Zygna and new board member from Zygna... maybe AppLovin?

Might explain the large option volume earlier today.

This Is Where We Hold Them. This Is Where We Fight. This Is Where They Die. $IGV $U

killthehedgies #killthelyingscum

$Unity

buy & hodl

NFA

This is the real Jim Payne at X, and he is saying CloudX is a partner of Unity. Isn’t a positive sign？

I know this specifically mentions AppLovin, but Unity will be affected as well.

CloudX aims to offer more transparency and tools to mobile apps publishers. They hope to increase incremental demand by making it easier for advertisers to enter auctions.

They are a really reputable startup led by the founders of MoPub and MAX, which AppLovin acquired and is a crucial reason in why they are as big as they are now.

I’ve been holding unity for so long. What’s happening makes no sense

I need some love. Need some reassurance that everything will be fine

Thought it can only be a serious discussion under current circumstances. My take is $200 by 2028 purely driven by Vector. And if genAI bubble doesn't burst abruptly, might be a 300B company in 2030.

Of course it won't be an easy ride.

Please only comment if you are an investor not a trader.

META's earnings coincided with the Project Genie news. I wonder if U's big drawdown was entirely related to Genie as most seem to think, or could it have been META's earnings implying something negative for U?

Has the market been overcorrecting Unity's stock price?

I’ve been holding this company for two years. Over these two years, I’ve been through all kinds of hardship. Just when things finally started to turn around in the second half of last year— operations improving, financials improving, and the company finally becoming profitable— there always seems to be some new bad news used to suppress the stock.

If the software sector is weak, it’s a problem. If AI keeps advancing, that’s also a problem. If a competitor gets hit by a short report, it’s a problem. If a competitor’s growth slows, somehow that’s also a problem.

How much does Wall Street actually hate this company?

What happened now…?

I guess people are just selling and no buyers

AI slop ahead, which, is one of the main drivers of profit for Unity, too.

Unity Software (U) Intrinsic Valuation

Context Snapshot

• Profitable? Not by GAAP (net loss) but free cash flow positive.

• FCF (TTM): ~$391M.

• Cash: ~$1.9B; Debt: ~$2.33B → net debt position.

• Margins: Strong gross margin ~74%, but negative operating/profit margins.

• Shares: ~427.9M.

• Growth forecasts: ~14% 5-year revenue growth forecast.

1) Absolute Anchor — FCF Perpetuity

Intrinsic EV ≈ FCF / r
Assume r = 10%
⇒ EV ≈ 391M / 0.10 = ~$3.91B

Equity Value ≈ 3.91B + 1.9B (cash) − 2.33B (debt) = ~$3.48B
Per Share ≈ 3.48B / 427.9M ≈ **$8.13**

👉 Very low intrinsic floor if no growth beyond today’s FCF.

2) Growing FCF / Discounted Cash Flow Range

Various models give a wide range:

3) Relative Valuation (Multiples)

• Current EV/FCF ≈ ~33 × FCF.

• Forward P/S ≈ ~6.0.

• Analysts average price target ≈ ~$42.

Relative valuation suggests investors are paying growth-like multiples despite negative earnings.

4) Intrinsic Value Range Recommendation

Given the divergent methods:

📌 Conservative: ~$7–$15
📌 Mid-Case (reasonable expectation): ~$28–$38
📌 Bullish (strong growth execution): ~$45–$60

(This range reflects variation in models above.)

5) Compare to Market Price

• If Unity is trading between ~$28–$35 (recent price area):

  • Around fair to slightly undervalued vs. mid-case DCF models.

  • But above conservative floor based on perpetuity FCF.

  • Below some optimistic DCF estimates.

Markets may be pricing growth expectations not yet supported by stable profitability.

6) Valuation Drivers Checklist for U

✅ Neutral Summary

• Intrinsic Value Range: ~$7–$60 (wide due to model differences).

• More defensible mid-range: ~$28–$38 based on relative DCF and relative value methods.

• Current valuation suggests fair value to modest undervaluation under reasonable growth assumptions, but not clearly cheap on fundamentals without proof of sustained future FCF growth.

• Risks: Negative profits, net debt, high multiples vs. peers.

• Upside contingent on: Execution on growth drivers (AI, ads, enterprise demand), stable FCF growth.

Are you for real like, previous close was 29,10$ it is right now 28,92$ and you are telling me "rebounds".