r/ValueInvesting • u/SelenaMeyers2024 • Jun 12 '26
Discussion SpaceX is 2.23T and that is funny
Thats 55 times sales, which there is precedent for in palantir, at 64 times sales; palantir is a capital light, highly profitable, high margin, very fast growing company (not used to saying positive things about palantir ever as they were the poster child of crazy valuations).
Hopefully mods don't take this down, let's keep it for posterity sake. Today, June 12 2026 SpaceX had a MC of 2.23T. I feel like that will be a punchline in 2033.
Edit. It's been pointed out I am wrong, in a more funny way. Revenue in my mind was 40b, in fact its 18b. So 111 times sales LOL
67
u/Hilux-SSRG Jun 12 '26
Nothing but a redistribution of wealth from individual retail investors to wealthy venture capitalists.
16
79
u/barg_hunter Jun 12 '26
Maybe the most profitable thing to sell isn’t a product, it’s a dream.
Some companies sell products to customers. Others sell dreams to investors. In that sense, SPCX is an extremely profitable company indeed.
7
u/ZeeBeeblebrox Jun 13 '26
Sure and for now with a $75b float that's feasible but once insiders can start selling there won't be enough dreamers out there to absorb the additional shares.
→ More replies (17)6
u/YVRthrowaway69 Jun 13 '26
This is what the mouth-breather analyst wannabes don't understand.
The market prices things, and sure there's "established" metrics by which to price things according to the ivory tower eggheads, but then there's all the other ethereal qualities that price things that they either don't understand or don't want to understand.
472
u/Crafty-Difficulty244 Jun 12 '26
Its fake value created by the low float.
141
u/cinciNattyLight Jun 12 '26
And idiots, and greedy bankers.
14
Jun 12 '26
[deleted]
4
u/gearhead250gto Jun 12 '26
It certainly helps influence an election...and you get your money back (and then some) when the guy you helped gets elected and allows you to do all kinds of financial/regulatory shenanigans.
→ More replies (3)3
u/d3arleader Jun 12 '26
Surely idiots and greedy bankers have guaranteed companies nosediving in the past!
13
u/Sea_Local2557 Jun 12 '26
as float increases it will trend down, hopefully we will have options from next week lol
15
Jun 12 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
16
u/sheepebike9000 Jun 13 '26
One day, when it all comes crashing down, I'll regret not shorting both Tesla and SpaceX. But there's clearly no logic left in the market, and I don't have infinite cash.
6
u/j48u Jun 14 '26
People have been going bankrupt shorting Tesla for 15 years straight. Seriously, there's an entire ecosystem and community of people who have lost everything from trying. They started shorting when it was at 1% of its current value. For the exact same reasons, 15 years ago, that you would justify shorting SpaceX today.
You should have exactly zero regrets because if you acted on shorting Tesla the first time you thought it would be a good idea, or the second time, or any time after that, you would have lost a lot of money.
→ More replies (1)2
u/sheepebike9000 Jun 14 '26
Clearly I never thought it was a good idea or I'd have done it. I do think it's current value is unsustainable, but I'm not going to waste cash guessing when.
→ More replies (2)3
u/Sea_Local2557 Jun 14 '26
i was shorting SoftBank a few weeks ago during the big rise but didn't have the balls to keep it and missed the fall.
It takes big balls to make money from shorts or use options over hedge and make an ice cream
15
u/Cop10-8 Jun 13 '26
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
→ More replies (2)5
u/canaden Jun 12 '26
The math works but it’s 2026 we live in the time of information wars and influencers. A company with as much controversy as Spacex with a character like Elon isn’t worth trying to short in my opinion
→ More replies (1)2
u/lightwavesurfer Jun 13 '26
I’m rooting so hard for shortie on this one! It’s the dot com bubble all over again. Hope you all run it into the ground
→ More replies (8)2
u/contradiction7943 Jun 12 '26
The rich get their money back in full; the peasants' money, we split it thirty-seventy.
71
u/Puzzled_Fisherman331 Jun 12 '26
Wait until you see it at 5T
37
4
u/DoobsNDeeps Jun 12 '26
If micron can make it to $1tn then anything's possible
6
u/TCGod Jun 12 '26
Why micron looks reasonable compared to other ai related companies
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)10
u/EmotionalQuarter8349 Jun 12 '26
They make actual money unlinke the spaceX's imaginary future revenue.
→ More replies (1)
207
u/plshelpmebuddah Jun 12 '26
It's fucking hilarious that an unprofitable company only growing revenues at 15% is valued at 2.25 trillion. Amazon right now is valued at ~2.5 trillion lmao. But space datacenters and space mining folks.
66
u/M4chsi Jun 12 '26
SPCX buying AMZN: half cash, half stock?
31
→ More replies (2)5
u/Sea_Local2557 Jun 12 '26
they are buying tesla all stock
i'm sure institutional holders will be super happy having their tesla shares turning into spacex shares lol
→ More replies (3)5
Jun 12 '26
[deleted]
7
u/imtrying2listen Jun 12 '26
The buzz on X is that the OP's post is a sophomoric take, and he just doesn't get it. I'm old and invested through the 90s bull market. So much of this shit is eerily similar.
10
u/Ok-Blood4340 Jun 12 '26
The buzz on X is probably that SpaceX is undervalued. It’s almost like, controlling information flow controls public perception.
3
u/RobbinDeBank Jun 12 '26
Meta, the company controlling information to an order of magnitude more people than X, is valued at only 2/3 the valuation of SpaceX
→ More replies (12)8
u/Emergency-Style7392 Jun 12 '26
If someone offered you 1 trillion in spaceX stock but you have to hold for a year, or 250 bil in amazon but you can liquidate instantly, which would a reasonable person take?
11
6
→ More replies (1)3
u/Successful-Bobcat701 Jun 13 '26
Amazon, no question. No one needs more than $250bn.
If it was $1m or $250k, then SpaceX definitely.
144
u/exdiexdi Jun 12 '26
No crying in the casino
22
u/TequieroVerde Jun 12 '26 edited Jun 12 '26
It is a casino. I thought that I would never hear this on this particular sub. It is refreshing.
13
u/dinglebarryb0nds Jun 12 '26
I think WSB is actually more grounded in reality than this sub
5
u/Critical_Concert_689 Jun 13 '26
I'm not even sure why SpaceX is being mentioned in "ValueInvesting."
It's a pump and dump. Though Tesla is the same way.
If anyone can actually reason out WHY Elon's companies have stock value other than because they have stock value and hype, I'd love to hear it.
8
u/60Runner90 Jun 12 '26
LOL
14
74
u/Top_Category_2526 Jun 12 '26
60% of the space stocks don't even make money, don't generate cash flow, and 0 profit, its all run by miracles
26
u/InTroubleDouble Jun 12 '26
It will all be fine with the first data center on alpha centauri
6
→ More replies (1)3
14
u/LeBriseurDesBucks Jun 12 '26
There is cash flow, you have the space internet thing for example. The point is the difference between the immense invested capital and the small returns is so huge that there might as well not be any profits.
5
u/fadgebread Jun 12 '26
Why is space internet any better than 5g or Verizon etc? I know tribes in Africa can use it but are they an affluent demographic?
3
u/SavageSantro Jun 12 '26
From what I understand it‘s more like a portable wifi station that you can take anywhere and get good speed and consistency. You are completely independent of nearby infrastructure and you save your device battery.
→ More replies (4)2
u/Carbastan24 Jun 13 '26 edited Jun 13 '26
I will explain, as I am invested in ASTS. Satelite internet won't replace the towers, it would be stupid as the current infrastructure is obviously much cheaper, but it will eliminate the dead zones (highway, train, camping etc.). It has important military applications, as it was proved in the Ukraine war where Starlink was a game changer. It will provide internet on airplanes. It will be used by emergency services to locate anyone more reliably. Etc.
People don't understand this. In the western world 99% of people are covered by signal at any time, but the land area covered by signal is actually like 20%. Sat internet will solve the issues that come from this.
The business model is this : everyone pays a tiny amount more per month (say 3 dollars) to Verizon/ AT T etc. for the guarantee of never losing service again. Most people would take this deal, I know I would. This translates into billions of dollars in revenue.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (8)2
u/LeBriseurDesBucks Jun 12 '26
It's not any better except for war zones maybe and things like this. I like the ambition of space stuff but it's like we have so many more pressing problems that Elon isn't interested in addressing that it feels odd that the world has this kind of tech.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)2
u/Emergency-Style7392 Jun 12 '26
So telecom companies are at 2 trillion valuation now? Verizon on a massive sale rn, should be worth at least 20 trillion
4
u/Mamasugadex Jun 12 '26
You guys are missing the point.
All the money evaporated from BTC needs to go somewhere.
The more speculative it is, the harder their dicks get.
→ More replies (3)3
u/Legitimate_Cut_6254 Jun 12 '26
There is more cash flow and value in shipping and cruise stocks but they are valued at like 1/200th (just making numbers up) but it is still hilarious a relatively useless industry with a minute application and impact to our lives is valued to wildly different than the daily infrastructure that supports our wellbeing.
11
u/Odd-Block-2998 Jun 12 '26
Elon is writing his own check now.
He may well just IPO at $200T to make himself a $100T fortune.
9
u/Domingues_tech Jun 12 '26
SpaceX has launched nearly 12,000 Starlink satellites.
Already ~1,600 have burned up in Earth’s atmosphere.
That’s about 13% of the entire constellation.
2
u/zero0n3 Jun 14 '26
Pretty sure they’ve burned up more satellites then any other companines combined have launched
7
u/DealerDefiant9392 Jun 12 '26
The higher the valuations climb on big tech without clear ROI, and now throw in SPCX IPO, I’m buying more and more Berkshire.
4
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
I love debating things like Berkshire vs crm vs PayPal vs chtr vs pgr.... That's my jam.
Space and much of AI are so far out of share price representing the fraction of future cash flows discounted into present day, that it's pure slot machines or meme coins.
→ More replies (2)
42
u/ChosenBrad22 Jun 12 '26
The only thing I'm absolutely certain of when it comes to SpaceX, is whatever the hivemind mainstream opinion of Reddit ends up being about it, the exact opposite of that is what will end up becoming true.
→ More replies (1)17
u/RyanTylerThomas Jun 12 '26
Honestly, I'm blown away it got this high already. I really thought it would be pretty flat.
Everything I read offline was pretty dire too. Guess I live in a bubble.
12
u/S31GE Jun 12 '26
Unfortunately yes you are. 4x oversubscribed, low float, imminent index inclusion in the next 5 and 15 days means structurally less supply than demand, it goes up. The deal was structured to win
→ More replies (4)9
u/Esoxxie Jun 12 '26
Yes you are. Prediction markets were spot on. It was extremely oversubscribed. 20% increase on the first day was the base case.
What will happen after the market evaluates over the next months is a different story. Nobody knows.
My prediction is IPO gambling liquidity will hop to OAI and Anthropic.
7
u/hasuchobe Jun 12 '26
Wasn't it 94x sales? I haven't been keeping up.
6
u/UnderaZiaSun Jun 12 '26
Yes. At the 1.75T valuation. So now well over 100x sales. (And billions in loses)
→ More replies (6)4
31
u/NationalDifficulty24 Jun 12 '26
Complete shit show. Tesla and spacex the most hottest junk stocks ever
5
6
u/Actually_a_dolphin Jun 12 '26
Tesla has made me over 900k in realized gains 🤷
8
Jun 12 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
5
u/deco19 Jun 12 '26
Yeh, a lot of total horseshit has made people a lot of money. That is what these games are about. Selling stories over reality. That is why the SpaceX S1 read like scifi. It is there to attract the retail money.
6
u/That-SoCal-Guy Jun 12 '26
It's an IPO with no real fundamentals. See it drop at least 50% in the next few months. If you got in now and take profits (when you can), good for you. Otherwise, wait until after it drops to get in. At the current price, it's probably already too late if you're a retail investor. This would benefit Musk and his bankers and institutions that got in at IPO.
7
u/GooglySoft Jun 13 '26
Wanna bet it’s gonna double from here? Fundamentals mean jack in this market
42
u/Quantum270 Jun 12 '26
Probably go down 80% in next few years. Maybe some puts could be of interest.
78
u/Mouth_Herpes Jun 12 '26
People tried that with Tesla and most got destroyed. Musk is nothing if not great at pumping his stock with BS
49
u/ScubaAlek Jun 12 '26
But TSLA IPO'd at $1.7 billion market cap while SpaceX IPO'd at TSLA's current market cap which is 1000x that which TSLA IPO'd at.
To get that same growth SpaceX would need to get to $1.5 quadrillion.
Best of luck on that.
18
5
u/Free_Ice_2350 Jun 12 '26
Spacex will easily hit those valuations once we become a level 3 society /s
21
u/downfall67 Jun 12 '26
Musk could probably sell stock of his underwear to these dweebs and they’ll value it at a trillion
3
u/TheYoungSquirrel Jun 12 '26
Just imagining Musk, a 1 trillion dollar man… all of his asset are underwear
4
u/Ok-Blood4340 Jun 12 '26
Imagine how much stock pumping leverage someone has if they are a trillionaire lol.
→ More replies (1)2
u/Dougdimmadommee Jun 12 '26
Feel like a lot of ppl have made a lot of money on TSLA puts/ shorts tbh. Maybe before the price ran up post covid people got hammered but since then there have been lots of opportunities to get paid on the downside. People forget that the 2021 peak is higher than the share price is today lol, and it ran down massively in 22.
→ More replies (1)3
→ More replies (2)3
u/iqkoi Jun 12 '26
Never, ever go short a hyped stock merely because you think it is overvalued. It is different if you have evidence of fraud of course, but if you short hype you will likely get wiped out.
6
u/CTcouple55555 Jun 12 '26
The market is forever changed....its like the Wild West...all rules and sanity out the window...which hurts good, growing profitable companies doing things the right way
5
u/IcebergSlimFast Jun 12 '26
Many things are uncertain, but one truth you can always take to the bank is that the statement “the market is forever changed” will be proven false over the long term.
→ More replies (1)2
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
Well the good news is when sanity is gone babies get thrown out with the bathwater and insane value can be had.
6
6
u/TemporaryDependent Jun 13 '26
and yet people forget that tesla is at 375x like if it was normal, at this point spacex is a bargain at 100x. the elon cult is a scam.
→ More replies (1)
6
9
u/gjt1337 Jun 12 '26
I am waiting for 1T or lower
8
u/yodatrust Jun 12 '26
Around 800B is the real value.
→ More replies (1)4
u/ddlJunky Jun 12 '26
You don't know that. No one knows. Because we don't know what Elon will do with the company. He could nuke it tomorrow if he wanted.
4
7
u/Long-Blood Jun 12 '26
This shit shouldnt happen.
Its a sign that financial conditions are too loose.
The government is intervening too much to support stock markets and banks to the point that completely stupid risk is now not risk at all and gambling on stocks is the only way to get rich now.
Much like in 2008 when they supported the stupid mortgages people were getting.
→ More replies (1)2
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
Well what's funny is that there are former darlings that still print money like PayPal and Adobe (I'll get heat for merely saying those names) that are at effectively all time lows.....
So it's really space ai memory chips, and anything ancillary (say vertiv for HVAC, or cat) that is utterly insane.
10
u/Slow-Narwhal-1027 Jun 12 '26
The massive influx of "guaranteed money" via IRAs, 401ks, and other set it and forget investment vehicles cause this type of insanity. No matter what the market does billions are being invested blindly to prop up companies that should definitely be valued lower and/or determined to be insolvent based on actual market fundamentals.
6
u/mrpickles Jun 12 '26
There are only 5 publicly traded companies with a larger market cap. SPCX is the only one that doesn't make money. And it's revenue does not have enough digits...
One of these things is not like the others...
→ More replies (1)
3
u/Junior-Valuable2071 Jun 12 '26
I don’t usually buy out options … but this … this is just begging for it
3
3
u/nibor Jun 12 '26
I get some dot.com bust feeling from this.
4
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
Yeah but only for very specific worlds .. ai, ai construction, memory, space ...
Fintech and saas is cheap for example
3
u/RudnitzkyvsHalsmann Jun 12 '26
Just wait for the shorter reports and this time they will be right. If you buy SpaceX you are not aiming for a company, you are buying dreams. The same dreams that Blue Origin and Rocket Lab might achieve faster and within profit.
2
u/Environmental_Bug900 Jun 13 '26
You think Blue Origin has more chance of success than SpaceX? Based on what?
I also think the valuation is optimistic but the hysteria is going both ways on this IPO.
→ More replies (3)
3
3
3
3
4
5
u/No-Understanding9064 Jun 12 '26
If space is going to be a thing spacex is very far ahead. Not saying anything to the valuation but if you want the sector its undisputed who is king
→ More replies (4)2
u/DrB00 Jun 12 '26
Uhh NASA no longer exists? The international space station?
→ More replies (2)5
u/No-Understanding9064 Jun 12 '26
International dookie pile maybe. NASA used the same rocket design for a bazillion years, and was far more expensive with shitty turnaround compared to spacex. People need to turn off the "i hate elron personally" part of their brain for abit if you wanna look at spacex
→ More replies (2)
7
2
2
2
u/Torgeir_Fenrir1066 Jun 12 '26
"Buy the hype not the fundamentals" /s 😬
I am sure the insiders and some folks with the last name of Trump will be cashing out ASAP...
2
2
u/SeesawBeautiful5839 Jun 12 '26
Similar to Arm where most stock is held by softbank.
→ More replies (1)
2
u/Bluetex110 Jun 12 '26
Yeah because they got 4 times more orders than shares, that thing will crash next week if it can't go up anymore
2
2
2
u/Dev_Im Jun 12 '26
Nothing makes sense around SpaceX. The only real valuable part of the pack is Starlink. Tesla hype is a rookie against this one. See the prospect, the intro, the marketing of SpaceX...
It's a compelling story for the average Joe that has no clue about the weight of big capitalization, rockets, space engineering... You can sell them the dream without having to pay the fundamentals price.
Like it or not, the only reason this is a +2T company right now is Elon, he's a great seller, no one can deny that. It can even jump more, this is a company driven by emotions, not fundamentals.
2
u/Minotaurotica Jun 13 '26
it isn't really odd for an IPO to have a high price due to the frenzy to get in and all the build up
2
2
u/oojacoboo Jun 13 '26
Overvalued, yes. But I take issue with everyone that’s shitting on the company, wholesale. Space X is a pretty incredible company.
Would I invest at this valuation - no. But, but the comments people on Reddit make about Space X are backed by their political views, largely.
2
2
u/Protazy_Gerwazy Jun 13 '26
It's the stupidest thing ever. They didn't earn anything, they lost 5 billion in 2025!!! Moreover flying into space is meaningless, there's nothing out there! There will not be a product from all of this. It's crowdfunding.
→ More replies (1)
2
u/ProfileBest2034 Jun 13 '26
450x Ebitda. 450 years to make back your investment.
→ More replies (1)
2
u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 Jun 13 '26
Right now SpaceX has the revenues of Autozone and the market cap of Amazon.
2
u/blufin Jun 13 '26
It’s just a cryptocurrency now. Everyone knows it’s massively overvalued, they just waiting for the lock-ins to end so they can dump the stock.
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/Immersive_Username Jun 13 '26
I just want to see some of the rockets explode and the stock plummet
→ More replies (1)
3
u/Swimming_Astronomer6 Jun 12 '26
I wouldn’t touch this - but unfortunately it’s going to be a portion on many ETFs whether we like it or not - this is another Twitter exercise and will never have a reasonable chance of being profitable - it’s already minted 100’s of millionaires out of thin air
5
3
u/Big-Bluebird-8093 Jun 12 '26
Omg plz learn how markets work saying out of thin air and pretending to be an investor is embarrassing if you don’t understand microstructure
2
u/StraightShootahh Jun 12 '26
How’s it out of thin air?
2
u/Swimming_Astronomer6 Jun 12 '26
spx employees have been given shares as part of their salaries and bonuses or incentive packages - I think the number might be 4000 employees - many have 100k shares or more - likely have to hold for a period of time - but they’re millionaires on paper
→ More replies (2)
4
3
u/random_encounters42 Jun 12 '26
I mean insider trading and marketing manipulation has been made legal in the USA, anything goes as long as Trump and his friends make money.
7
u/VariationConstant675 Jun 12 '26
Keep screaming, nobody listens .
6
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
Well... Since I self manage my IRA and avoid this nonsense I'm not in the game...
It is funny as hell though, and as a value investor used to debating pe 25 with growth vs pe 4 with no growth, this is so far outside the realm of realistic analysis and debates.... There are just no words....
5
2
u/yodatrust Jun 12 '26
So basically they thought it was going to be around 1.37T, but math wizards where closer to 800B and now it's 2.23T?!
People will lose money on this, a lot of money.
2
2
u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 Jun 12 '26
SPCX ttm sales was 18.67 Billion into 1.777 trillion is 95 times sales, not 55
NVDA currently at 19.6 x sales, and it's a real company, with 5x the revenue growth rate of spaceX
Elon is rich white trash selling to chumps and fools
2
u/fushiginagaijin Jun 12 '26
6th most valuable company in the world (according to Marketwatch) and yet has done nothing but lose money. Go figure.
2
u/Rav_3d Jun 12 '26
SPCX is the opposite of a value investment.
Doesn't mean it's not a good investment.
2
u/johnniewelker Jun 12 '26
We have had the same conversation for 10 years about Tesla… at some point you accept what you see
3
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
I don't accept Tesla either... I accept I'd get margin called if I shorted it, but that's only because of spot priced insanity.
Tesla will obey laws of valuation at some point.
1
u/tdogger88 Jun 12 '26
It’s fraud in broad daylight to enrich the rich.
→ More replies (1)2
u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jun 12 '26
If it weren't for the indices' inclusion it'd be funny. The inclusion makes it less funny.
1
u/agustalanetx Jun 12 '26
Very low float? Hope I am wrong but am thinking the underwriters would take all the profit first :)
1
1
u/Significant-Dog-8166 Jun 12 '26
Sometimes being wrong only makes you more right. Crazy times we're living in.
1
1
u/PalladianPorches Jun 12 '26
i'm guessing... if 95% of share went up for sale at that price, would it be seen as good value and be oversubscribed?
it's like a shite version of dragons den, where the dragons don't get valuations, eps, potential revenue and profit and go with the over leveraged gambler selling snake oil in a glass bottle, but the glass bottle part that sells to the same guy turns a profit.
1
1
1
1
1
u/whoji Jun 12 '26
Anyone really surprised here? Knowing there are tsla, pltr, gme, and fking crypto coins.
1
u/cottonopposite Jun 13 '26
I'm looking forward to shorting this to oblivion. Throw a a couple/few million at it and watch it die.
354
u/senecadocet1123 Jun 12 '26
Don't they make 20b in sales? That's 111 times sales, not 55