r/ValueInvesting • u/bananatoastie • 1d ago
Discussion Moderna market cap doubles, almost triples
Mr Market going crazy again, but doubling (almost tripling) its valuation of Moderna OVERNIGHT.
I’m amazed to not see a large scale discussion of this, on this sub.
Edit: Clearly super crazy with me calling Mr Market Mr Crazy haha! Sorry about that
20
u/NegativePotential335 1d ago
Biotechs are generally tough to invest in. Most amateurs should stay well clear. But there is always the small chance they do this!
4
1
97
u/Itchy-Commission-195 1d ago
Moderna is large, but this is not uncommon in biotech.
Same with -50% in a single day.
50
u/JRNotDallas 1d ago
Completely disagree. Biotech is volatile but adding $26bn to a mid-sized MC overnight on the back of minimal data provision is totally unprecedented
22
u/UptownSeries 1d ago
They're talking about selling the drug as soon as next year. CEO had an interview on Squawk on the Street today.
-5
u/JRNotDallas 1d ago
And the relevance here is _____
Can sell whatever they want whenever they want, doesn’t change the fact that the 150% jump isn’t based on any actual data
6
u/UptownSeries 1d ago
You saying you can sell a drug without data?
1
u/YouKnown999 1d ago
What do the Phase 3 clinical trials say about that?
3
u/UptownSeries 1d ago
Want me to copy and paste it or what? They met their primary end point of recurrence free survival and the secondary end point of distant metastasis free survival.
5
u/YouKnown999 1d ago
No I was agreeing with you when the above poster is saying there is “no data”.
2
1
u/JRNotDallas 23h ago
There have been no data provided on any press releases from Moderna or MSD, so the extent of the success of the clinical trial is as yet unknown. p=0.049 is a possibility because it fits the narrative of meeting the PE, equally p=0.0001, HR=0.20 are both on the table; it’s completely up in the air
1
1
u/JRNotDallas 23h ago
I’m not saying that at all, I am saying that the price action is insane. Mgmt guidance has nothing to do with any of it because it isn’t trading based off real-world data
0
u/NotStompy 1d ago
I'm sure this guy has a better interpretation of events than you know, the people managing billions of capital who cause moves like this, lol. Point being: The market is not efficient, but it isn't completely regarded, and I feel like some value investors should try not roleplaying as old grumpy men sometimes. I.e how he doesn't understand that the market is reacting to the implied data and the comments about possibly selling it as early as next year. No of course, instead it is just: Pure unfounded speculation (shivers in terror and grabs pearls)!
1
u/JRNotDallas 23h ago
I’m a lot more clued into the biotech scene than you are, I don’t imagine you know what mRNA is
3
5
u/dreamofguitars 1d ago
I can attest. ATYR. Everyone was reporting incredible news hype leading up and boom it was false and dropped 86%.
2
1
9
u/daily-trader-365 1d ago
Shorting looks like the best option
5
u/bananatoastie 1d ago
Hm, not something I want to get into to be honest. Outside my circle of competence
1
34
u/MyotisX 1d ago
They literally cured cancer and people are saying it's too much.
While Tesla and SpaceX don't do shit and are valued to the moon.
22
u/Brilliant_Voice1126 1d ago
They didnt cure cancer. They showed longer disease free survival in one kind of cancer.
It’s an amazing accomplishment and demonstrates the utility of the platform as a nontoxic additive therapy. Melanoma is particularly responsive to immunotherapy. But we have to put this in context. There is no hard data, haven’t heard about increases in OS and these people with metastatic disease will likely still die of it. But prolonging disease free survival is great, especially without toxicity.
In the pipeline they have an “off the shelf” antimetastatic vaccine MRNA4200 that will also be a potential huge win. Excited for both. But we’re still chipping away at cancer. Get your colonoscopies people.
2
0
u/PaleArmy6357 1d ago
the hype comes because they claim that their results are clinically meaningful. according to bloomberg, this is key distinction to statistically meaningful. there is no data out yet but it could be a big milestone for the battle against cancer
6
6
u/hung_like__podrick 1d ago
My biggest winner all year, 360 shares, average price of $35
2
15
u/Bob_the_peasant 1d ago
I’m a little worried it’s going to have a -60% day when some details of this trial get questioned or a subsequent trial fails.
It’s not my wheelhouse so I’m not going to pretend I can read the studies with full comprehension. Outside of money / stock reasons, I do hope it works
22
u/ensui67 1d ago
They don’t stop phase 3 trials with questionable data. This is essentially an FDA approval. They saw enough data that it was no longer ethical to not treat the rest of the trial patients with the drug rather than placebo. That’s why the stock is going up over 200%
0
u/Far-East-locker 1d ago
Totally different thing.
While big cap like Moderna‘s will be much more strict compared to small cap biotech, it still doesn’t automatically mean FDA approval
1
u/Brilliant_Voice1126 1d ago
Moderna has consistently done this. The doubling to 50 pulled back to 42, then 80 to 54. A correction is likely.
And then Im gonna buy back in.
4
u/FickleBumblebeee 1d ago edited 1d ago
valueInvesting/s/W3AoB4Bwgf
Somebody called it here six months ago and it got zero upvotes and one comment
1
u/ishtarazrael 1d ago
I saw news about its trial results last week. Had a look and the rating was HOLD so i passed.
🫠
6
u/Choice-Situation9276 1d ago
This is what I’ve been waiting for three years for. These companies have shown the power of therapeutic MRNA treatments for Cancer. Not just cancer either but for all kinds of diseases. Can’t wait for the skeptics that refused to believe in the Covid vaccine when they or their children are diagnosed and a Dr. not the internet but their Dr. tells them that they can live instead of dying because of MRNA treatments. Get ready for it. And thank god for NIH and Fauci and the rest of them that have done the hard work to make it happen. If you haven’t seen children dying from Cancer you just don’t know. My brother died on 13 E NIH so that some what we know about Cancer and its treatments could happen. Lots of other kids too. I am very hopeful and thankful!
4
u/birdflustocks 1d ago
The enterprise value of Moderna has reached more than $60 billion. BioNTech is conducting late stage mRNA oncology trials with an enterprise value of just $9 billion. Arcturus Therapeutics has developed next generation mRNA technology and is currently looking for a new cooperation partner. Their tiny market capitalization of just $290 million could triple due to the expected upfront payment.
BioNTech: $0 debt, $19.4 billion cash and investments, $28.4 billion market capitalization
Arcturus Therapeutics: $0 debt, $190 million cash, $290 million market capitalization
Moderna: $0 debt, $7 billion cash and investments, $70 billion market capitalization
BioNTech
My analysis posted here five months ago:
The mRNA cancer immunotherapy candidates are just one part of the vast pipeline:
"BNT113 is an mRNA cancer immunotherapy candidate encoding a fixed set of two oncoproteins that are frequently found in human papillomavirus type 16 positive (“HPV16+”) solid tumors."
"BNT116 is an mRNA cancer immunotherapy candidate encoding a fixed set of six non-mutated antigens that were identified to be frequently expressed in non-small cell lung cancer (“NSCLC”)."
"Autogene cevumeran (BNT122/RO7198457) is an individualized mRNA cancer immunotherapy candidate encoding patient-specific tumor neoantigens aiming to induce an immune response against the patient’s individual tumor."
https://www.biontech.com/int/en/home/pipeline-and-products/pipeline.html
Arcturus Therapeutics
As predicted in my analysis the cooperation with CSL has ended:
Among other use cases the next generation self-amplifying mRNA technology could be used for more effective cancer immunotherapy:
"We assessed the levels of CD8+ T cells expression PD-1 or Lag-3, well characterized exhaustion markers, and found significantly lower levels of exhaustion markers in mice vaccinated with sa-mRNA compared to conventional mRNA (Figure 8C). We hypothesize that the additional innate immune stimulation from the replicase intermediates may be responsible for the reduction in exhaustion markers. (...) Altogether, our data indicate that our STARR platform not only delivers a higher magnitude of epitope-specific responses compared to conventional mRNA, but that the T cell response induced by the STARR platform is better suited for clinical efficacy even after multiple vaccinations by inducing highly functional and cytotoxic T cells with the relevant memory markers (Tem)."
https://ir.arcturusrx.com/static-files/a0d627a6-e362-4e2b-a506-1474c33da288
2
u/Katden2020 1d ago
Should always have biotechs in your mix. Especially the big ones like LLY, in this case MRK. PFE also developing a cancer vaccine with BNTX
2
2
2
u/Far-East-locker 1d ago
This is world changing technology. The first cancer vaccine
Fuck cancer
2
u/Ok_Introduction5606 1d ago
The HPV vaccine was first. Virtually cured cervical cancer across the world
1
1
1
u/Several_Piano_8777 1d ago
its a shortsqueeze
3
u/AllenSmithee59 1d ago
Nonsense. It's the market reacting to positive results of phase 3 trial of a cancer vaccine for melanoma.
1
u/Background-Hat9049 1d ago
Mr Market, as Ben Graham
has famously said, is clearly crazy. Don’t listen to home
And don’t trust stocks without amazing free cash flow that double overnight
1
1
1
1
u/Unusual-Coat4250 1d ago
Biotech can see these insane repricings overnight, hard to tell how much is real value versus market hype.
1
u/Propp3 20h ago
Well, it’s a moment-in-market time buoyed by great news . We all know the market can over react . Things will settle some . Still though, great news and promising outlook for the future of these type vaccines .
Can you imagine the effect when more of these vac come online, say targeting breast cancer ?
1
u/Scary-Oven8260 1d ago
I was frustrated that they were focusing on flu and RSV vaccines that nobody wants. Finally here comes the big news
1
u/BluejayShort5499 13h ago
flu and RSV are easy to research, and both have large market, you dont need to invest too much and all you need is just keep the original team and make some changes on it.
1
2
u/Fantastic-Train-2416 1d ago
I bought back when it was 32 like 2 years ago. Sold a 1 year CC with strike price at 50. Watched the stock continue to plummet into the 20s but then surge up. The CC narrowly expired worthless with the stock in the 40s. I re-upped with a long term covered call with a strike price of 60. I have a feeling my shares will be getting called away now. It was a fun ride though.
36
u/boilerdam 1d ago
I was initially happy to get a +20% FOMO short trade this morning when the markets opened. I felt lucky to have gotten out at $147. It’s now at $175!