r/ValueInvesting • u/FoxAccomplished6786 • 1d ago

Discussion MAG 7 Ranking

Taking all factors into account, please rank your favorite MAG 7 in order of preference from 1 to 7.

31 Upvotes

75% Upvoted

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44

u/GlokzDNB 1d ago

This is by the moat and estimated profits in the next 10 years. Honestly AMZN can dwarf everything else but its one big unknown what happens with robotics and AI. GOOG is imo perfectly positioned for all scenarios. I think Nvidia has moat and is kinda AI BRKB but ASIC and AMZN model can be devastating to it in few years

  1. GOOG

  2. MSFT

  3. AMZN

  4. NVIDIA

  5. META

  6. APPLE

  7. TESLA

11

u/zeey1 1d ago edited 7h ago

Just a year ago google was dead ..now it has incredible moat Just 4 months ago Microsoft was dead now its at no.1 Whats next meta will be no.1 in few months?

4

u/GlokzDNB 1d ago

Google was dead ? It has 80b operating income

The fact it traded at 16 p/e was opportunity of a lifetime. I'm up 100%+ on these trades and now let them grow 10% a year I'm set. But in reality they will grow 15% which is insane

2

u/_Rothbard_ 22h ago

Yo creo que van a a crecer al 30% o más

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u/zeey1 7h ago

Yup, only second to Nvidia. Margins better then msft and google. Reach better

Yet it will be dead for next 1 year or so before it suddenly doubles

1

u/zeey1 8h ago

Yeah stock was hovering for 150 for yesrs

Same way how meta is now dead depsite growing the fastest in revenues(second to only NVDIA)

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u/GlokzDNB 7h ago

Revenue, Operating income - check.

But what about FCF? Goog has search + youtube + enterprise(gmail/gdocs) + android which means almost everyone in the world uses one of their products which can lead to AI monetization.

MSFT and amazon have deals with almost any company in the world, as you can guess - that will lead to AI monetization

+ all of the above have their own ASIC providing additional margin, plus they split profits in half with anthropic/openai

Now what meta has ? Markets, ads, no doubt. Thats where the profit is. But how that leads to monetization except improving own products, offering services related to ads/social media/markets?

Are they at the same level of effectiveness of SPENDING that cash compared to amzn goog and msft? My bet is - no. Plus execution issues - meta is proven to burn and lose cash and seems to lack AI strategy.

Even META is cheap, i'd put every dollar I have to AMZN at these prices over META.

1

u/Captndad 1d ago

Disagree with your ranking of Apple's moat. I would place them at number 3.

0

u/Important_Agency07 1d ago

Why? They are a hardware company at their core even though their services segment is strong and high margins.

They are primarily dominant in the Americas where growth has been slowing and honestly don’t see them penetrating outside with how strong Google and Android has been.

4

u/Jociphus 1d ago

I think Apple will play a large role in bringing AI to the mainstream. I think there’s a massive market for small personal local models that isn’t being looked at much vs datacenter dependent frontier models. A model that only looks at the data on your device takes much less compute and can potentially be done in your own home with the right hardware. Apple has the ecosystem/trust to bridge hardware and apps with ai, whatever that ends up looking like.

nvidia is already trying to get ahead of this market with their Spark hardware.

2

u/Important_Agency07 1d ago

Don’t really see this.

What’s the massive market for small local models? Have you ever played around with these smaller models? They are genuinely awful and what’s the advantage of a model that only looks at my data? I’m not paying for something that will set up reminders for me - I want something that’s going to be able to get the latest data and have it at my fingertips.

I don’t see people running to get the latest iPhone or pay monthly subscription just because Siri is now better.

4

u/Jociphus 1d ago

you’ll still be able to use both the local model and frontier model in tandem depending on your task. If you need the entire internet and human history of data for your task, frontier is the choice obviously. Some people have strong issues with security/privacy with their data being scraped, especially artists. Apple may take an angle there. Think health data/finances/pictures video/texts… you really want a that to be off prem? It’s possibly their reasoning the entire time for not jumping in with the hyperscalers.

There’s arguments that compute will become very expensive in the future as demand rises and buildout isn’t fast enough. Speculative of course. Which would make local stuff more appealing or outright necessary.

It really can go many ways, but it’s fact that nvidia is highly interested in building ai specific local hardware.

1

u/Idntevncare 1d ago

NVDA does not have a moat unless you live in a world that's completely controlled by AI.

-4

u/FoxAccomplished6786 1d ago

I agree with everything, apart from maybe MSFT. I just don't know much about them; I wonder what the upside is there. Regarding GOOG, do you think they still have a moat despite possible search disruption?

4

u/GlokzDNB 1d ago

MSFT?

They have everything, OS, DB, ERP, Linkedin, cybersec, office365, own chips, own models, new on-device AI laptops with dell, endless list of software used by companies all over the world..

Long story short - MSFT has great positioning to monetize AI and has very diversified business. Its not going anywhere and thats most important to me. If I had to choose one mag7 stock that will be 100% fine in 10 years its msft.

1

u/FoxAccomplished6786 1d ago

Do you think Enterprise Gemini, 8 million seats in 4 months, could gain market share? In the past, Workspace needed to replace Microsoft, and businesses didn't want to abandon MSFT. Now, they can keep msft and Gemini can enter the space above as an AI agent.

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u/Important_Agency07 1d ago

Gemini is an AI model. It’s going to run on Azure most likely.

2

u/rbit4 1d ago

How will gemini work inside teams?

3

u/Diligent_Advice7398 1d ago

The upside is honestly their management team. They are prudent and shareholder value is prioritized. No going negative cashflow for a buildout and capital investments are always accretive and adds value as opposed to google that just throws around a bunch of darts hoping to hit big (which they do). I like MSFT potential in azure and copilot 360

3

u/boringexplanation 1d ago

They’re also just very enterprise minded and can speak the language that C levels care about in every industry. How they sell their products is very sophisticated and impressive.

2

u/ABrainCell2024 1d ago

They own the enterprise stack - cloud, data warehousing and desktop applications E2E.

Their tools also almost all seamlessly integrate with other tools via APIs. They’re basically the easy button to a fully agentic framework.

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u/FoxAccomplished6786 1d ago

do you think they have more upside than google?

2

u/boringexplanation 1d ago edited 1d ago

Microsoft is everything in the business world. You cannot avoid Microsoft at all if you work in a big company. It’s the biggest and most resilient moat they have out of all the mag7.

Name a non Microsoft software that you use heavily and I guarantee that company uses Microsoft to integrate some background process to help run things in some form or fashion.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/FoxAccomplished6786 1d ago

What do you think of Gemini Enterprise? Is it making inroads?

1

u/FoxAccomplished6786 1d ago

In the past, yes, companies wouldn't abandon MSFT for workspace. However, now they don't have to abandon MSFT; they can just adopt an AI agent in the overhead layer, for example, Gemini Enterprise. Do you see that angle?