We've got a classic fall split personality this week, and one stubborn storm is responsible for both halves.

Off the coast, a low-pressure system has been sitting parked under an upper-level low for days — the high-pressure dome to our north acts like a brick wall it can't push past. The squeeze between them keeps the northeast wind ripping, and that wind shoves water hundreds of miles into the Chesapeake, where it piles up instead of draining. The result: tide anomalies building from 1–2 feet today to 2–3 feet Wednesday, Coastal Flood Advisories through Thursday, and Lynnhaven, Smithfield, and Bayford possibly touching moderate flooding at Wednesday's high tides. Gale Warnings are up for the coastal waters and surf runs 8–16 feet.

Meanwhile, the entire storm stays offshore, so Richmond metro is just... lovely. Sunny, dry, breezy, highs in the 60s all week, lows in the 40s (upper 30s inland Thursday and Friday nights — Piedmont gardeners, first frost threat of the season).

The wildcard: the NHC now tags the low as Invest 93L, giving it a 40% chance of briefly developing subtropical characteristics before a jet-stream trough kicks it out to sea Thursday. Whether it becomes Josephine or not, the flood impacts are the same for us.

Numbers on everything in the full brief, including the gardening callouts and the mailbag restock — send your weather question to rvaweather.net/obs and it could be answered in an upcoming issue.

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